Phenological shifts in North American red squirrels: disentangling the roles of phenotypic plasticity and microevolution

Adaptation of sea turtles to climate warming: Will phenological responses be sufficient to counteract changes in reproductive output?

Sea turtles are vulnerable to climate change since their reproductive output is influenced by incubating temperatures, with warmer temperatures causing lower hatching success and increased feminization of embryos. Their ability to cope with projected increases in ambient temperatures will depend on their capacity to adapt to shifts in climatic regimes. Here, we assessed the extent to which phenological shifts could mitigate impacts from increases in ambient temperatures (from 1.5 to 3°C in air temperatures and from 1.4 to 2.3°C in sea surface temperatures by 2100 at our sites) on four species of sea turtles, under a "middle of the road" scenario (SSP2-4.5). Sand temperatures at sea turtle nesting sites are projected to increase from 0.58 to 4.17°C by 2100 and expected shifts in nesting of 26-43 days earlier will not be sufficient to maintain current incubation temperatures at 7 (29%) of our sites, hatching success rates at 10 (42%) of our sites, with current trends in hatchling sex ratio being able to be maintained at half of the sites. We also calculated the phenological shifts that would be required (both backward for an earlier shift in nesting and forward for a later shift) to keep up with present-day incubation temperatures, hatching success rates, and sex ratios. The required shifts backward in nesting for incubation temperatures ranged from -20 to -191 days, whereas the required shifts forward ranged from +54 to +180 days. However, for half of the sites, no matter the shift the median incubation temperature will always be warmer than the 75th percentile of current ranges. Given that phenological shifts will not be able to ameliorate predicted changes in temperature, hatching success and sex ratio at most sites, turtles may need to use other adaptive responses and/or there is the need to enhance sea turtle resilience to climate warming.

Vertebrate Phenological Plasticity: from Molecular Mechanisms to Ecological and Evolutionary Implications

Seasonal variation in the availability of essential resources is one of the most important drivers of natural selection on the phasing and duration of annually recurring life-cycle events. Shifts in seasonal timing are among the most commonly reported responses to climate change and the capacity of organisms to adjust their timing, either through phenotypic plasticity or evolution, is a critical component of resilience. Despite growing interest in documenting and forecasting the impacts of climate change on phenology, our ability to predict how individuals, populations, and species might alter their seasonal timing in response to their changing environments is constrained by limited knowledge regarding the cues animals use to adjust timing, the endogenous genetic and molecular mechanisms that transduce cues into neural and endocrine signals, and the inherent capacity of animals to alter their timing and phasing within annual cycles. Further, the fitness consequences of phenological responses are often due to biotic interactions within and across trophic levels, rather than being simple outcomes of responses to changes in the abiotic environment. Here, we review the current state of knowledge regarding the mechanisms that control seasonal timing in vertebrates, as well as the ecological and evolutionary consequences of individual, population, and species-level variation in phenological responsiveness. Understanding the causes and consequences of climate-driven phenological shifts requires combining ecological, evolutionary, and mechanistic approaches at individual, populational, and community scales. Thus, to make progress in forecasting phenological responses and demographic consequences, we need to further develop interdisciplinary networks focused on climate change science.

Quantifying phenological diversity: a framework based on Hill numbers theory

Background

Despite the great concern triggered by the environmental crisis worldwide, the loss of temporal key functions and processes involved in biodiversity maintenance has received little attention. Species are restricted in their life cycles by environmental variables because of their physiological and behavioral properties; thus, the timing and duration of species' presence and their activities vary greatly between species within a community. Despite the ecological relevance of such variation, there is currently no measure that summarizes the key temporal aspects of biological diversity and allows comparisons of community phenological patterns. Here, we propose a measure that synthesizes variability of phenological patterns using the Hill numbers-based attribute diversity framework.

Methods

We constructed a new phenological diversity measure based on the aforementioned framework through pairwise overlapping distances, which was supplemented with wavelet analysis. The Hill numbers approach was chosen as an adequate way to define a set of diversity values of different order q, a parameter that determines the sensitivity of the diversity measure to abundance. Wavelet transform analysis was used to model continuous variables from incomplete data sets for different phenophases. The new measure, which we call Phenological Hill numbers (PD), considers the decouplings of phenophases through an overlapping area value between pairs of species within the community. PD was first tested through simulations with varying overlap in phenophase magnitude and intensity and varying number of species, and then by using one real data set.

Results

PD maintains the diversity patterns of order q as in any other diversity measure encompassed by the Hill numbers framework. Minimum PD values in the simulated data sets reflect a lack of differentiation in the phenological curves of the community over time; by contrast, the maximum PD values reflected the most diverse simulations in which phenological curves were equally distributed over time. PD values were consistent with the homogeneous distribution of the intensity and concurrence of phenophases over time, both in the simulated and the real data set.

Discussion

PD provides an efficient, readily interpretable and comparable measure that summarizes the variety of phenological patterns observed in ecological communities. PD retains the diversity patterns of order q characteristic of all diversity measures encompassed by the distance-based Hill numbers framework. In addition, wavelet transform analysis proved useful for constructing a continuous phenological curve. This methodological approach to quantify phenological diversity produces simple and intuitive values for the examination of phenological diversity and can be widely applied to any taxon or community's phenological traits.

Transgenerational Plasticity and Bet-Hedging: A Framework for Reaction Norm Evolution

Decision-making under uncertain conditions favors bet-hedging (avoidance of fitness variance), whereas predictable environments favor phenotypic plasticity. However, entirely predictable or entirely unpredictable conditions are rarely found in nature. Intermediate strategies are required when the time lag between information sensing and phenotype induction is large (e.g., transgenerational plasticity) and when cues are only partially predictive of future conditions. Nevertheless, current theory regards plasticity and bet-hedging as distinct entities. We here develop a unifying framework: based on traits with binary outcomes like seed germination or diapause incidence we clarify that diversified bet-hedging (risk-spreading among one’s offspring) and transgenerational plasticity are mutually exclusive strategies, arising from opposing changes in reaction norms (allocating phenotypic variance among or within environments). We further explain the relationship of this continuum with arithmetic mean maximization vs. conservative bet-hedging (a risk-avoidance strategy), and canalization vs. phenotypic variance in a three-dimensional continuum of reaction norm evolution. We discuss under which scenarios costs and limits may constrain the evolution of reaction norm shapes.

Decoupling the effects of food and density on life-history plasticity of wild animals using field experiments: Insights from the steward who sits in the shadow of its tail, the North American red squirrel

Long-term studies of wild animals provide the opportunity to investigate how phenotypic plasticity is used to cope with environmental fluctuations and how the relationships between phenotypes and fitness can be dependent upon the ecological context. Many previous studies have only investigated life-history plasticity in response to changes in temperature, yet wild animals often experience multiple environmental fluctuations simultaneously. This requires field experiments to decouple which ecological factor induces plasticity in fitness-relevant traits to better understand their population-level responses to those environmental fluctuations. For the past 32 years, we have conducted a long-term integrative study of individually marked North American red squirrels Tamiasciurus hudsonicus Erxleben in the Yukon, Canada. We have used multi-year field experiments to examine the physiological and life-history responses of individual red squirrels to fluctuations in food abundance and conspecific density. Our long-term observational study and field experiments show that squirrels can anticipate increases in food availability and density, thereby decoupling the usual pattern where animals respond to, rather than anticipate, an ecological change. As in many other study systems, ecological factors that can induce plasticity (such as food and density) covary. However, our field experiments that manipulate food availability and social cues of density (frequency of territorial vocalizations) indicate that increases in social (acoustic) cues of density in the absence of additional food can induce similar life-history plasticity, as does experimental food supplementation. Changes in the levels of metabolic hormones (glucocorticoids) in response to variation in food and density are one mechanism that seems to induce this adaptive life-history plasticity. Although we have not yet investigated the energetic response of squirrels to elevated density or its association with life-history plasticity, energetics research in red squirrels has overturned several standard pillars of knowledge in physiological ecology. We show how a tractable model species combined with integrative studies can reveal how animals cope with resource fluctuations through life-history plasticity.

Exploring causal components of plasticity in grey seal birthdates: Effects of intrinsic traits, demography, and climate

Change in breeding phenology is often a response to environmental forcing, but less is known of the mechanism underlying such changes and their fitness consequences. Here, we report on changes in the breeding phenology from a 27-year longitudinal study (1991-2017) of individually marked, known-aged grey seals (Halichoerus grypus) on Sable Island, Nova Scotia, Canada. We used generalized linear mixed models and a 3-step process to develop a model that includes interactions between intrinsic and extrinsic covariates and to test hypotheses about the influence of fixed factors (maternal age, parity, previous reproductive success, pup sex, colony density, Atlantic Multidecal Oscillation (AMO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Sea Surface Temperature) and a random factor (female identity) on parturition dates. We also examined the consequences of the shift in birthdates on maternal energy allocation in offspring as measured by pup weaning mass. Birthdates were known for 2,768 pups of 660 known-age females. For 494 females with ≥2 parturition dates, repeatability as measured by the intraclass correlation was high (mean = 0.66). 87% of the variation in birthdates was explained by a mixed-effects model that included intrinsic and extrinsic fixed effects. Most of the explained variation was associated with the random effect of female identity. Parity was the most important intrinsic fixed effect, with inexperienced mothers giving birth later in the season than multiparous females. Over almost 3 decades, mean birthdates advanced by 15 days. The mixed model with intrinsic effects and population size, the detrended AMO from the previous year and mean NAO in the previous 3 years explained 80% of the variation with 21% of variation from the fixed effects. Both primiparous and multiparous individuals responded to the climate forcing, and there was strong evidence for heterogeneity in the response. Nevertheless, the shift in birthdates did not impact pup weaning mass.

The role of selection and evolution in changing parturition date in a red deer population

Changing environmental conditions cause changes in the distributions of phenotypic traits in natural populations. However, determining the mechanisms responsible for these changes—and, in particular, the relative contributions of phenotypic plasticity versus evolutionary responses—is difficult. To our knowledge, no study has yet reported evidence that evolutionary change underlies the most widely reported phenotypic response to climate change: the advancement of breeding times. In a wild population of red deer, average parturition date has advanced by nearly 2 weeks in 4 decades. Here, we quantify the contribution of plastic, demographic, and genetic components to this change. In particular, we quantify the role of direct phenotypic plasticity in response to increasing temperatures and the role of changes in the population structure. Importantly, we show that adaptive evolution likely played a role in the shift towards earlier parturition dates. The observed rate of evolution was consistent with a response to selection and was less likely to be due to genetic drift. Our study provides a rare example of observed rates of genetic change being consistent with theoretical predictions, although the consistency would not have been detected with a solely phenotypic analysis. It also provides, to our knowledge, the first evidence of both evolution and phenotypic plasticity contributing to advances in phenology in a changing climate.

Adaptive genetic evolution and phenotypic plasticity both contribute to a two-week advancement of birth dates earlier in spring in a deer population subject to temperature warming over four decades.

Consistent within-individual plasticity is sufficient to explain temperature responses in red deer reproductive traits

Warming global temperatures are affecting a range of aspects of wild populations, but the exact mechanisms driving associations between temperature and phenotypic traits may be difficult to identify. Here, we use a 36-year data set on a wild population of red deer to investigate the causes of associations between temperature and two important components of female reproduction: timing of breeding and offspring size. By separating within- versus between-individual associations with temperature for each trait, we show that within-individual phenotypic plasticity (changes within a female's lifetime) was entirely sufficient to generate the observed population-level association with temperature at key times of year. However, despite apparently adequate statistical power, we found no evidence of any variation between females in their responses (i.e. no "IxE" interactions). Our results suggest that female deer show plasticity in reproductive traits in response to temperatures in the year leading up to calving and that this response is consistent across individuals, implying no potential for either selection or heritability of plasticity. We estimate that the plastic response to rising temperatures explained 24% of the observed advance in mean calving date over the study period. We highlight the need for comparable analyses of other systems to determine the contribution of within-individual plasticity to population-level responses to climate change.

The effects of stress and glucocorticoids on vocalizations: a test in North American red squirrels

Acoustic signaling is an important means by which animals communicate both stable and labile characteristics. Although it is widely appreciated that vocalizations can convey information on labile state, such as fear and aggression, fewer studies have experimentally examined the acoustic expression of stress state. The transmission of such public information about physiological state could have broad implications, potentially influencing the behavior and life-history traits of neighbors. North American red squirrels (Tamiasciurus hudsonicus) produce vocalizations known as rattles that advertise territorial ownership. We examined the influence of changes in physiological stress state on rattle acoustic structure through the application of a stressor (trapping and handling the squirrels) and by provisioning squirrels with exogenous glucocorticoids (GCs). We characterized the acoustic structure of rattles emitted by these squirrels by measuring rattle duration, mean frequency, and entropy. We found evidence that rattles do indeed exhibit a “stress signature.” When squirrels were trapped and handled, they produced rattles that were longer in duration with a higher frequency and increased entropy. However, squirrels that were administered exogenous GCs had similar rattle duration, frequency, and entropy as squirrels that were fed control treatments and unfed squirrels. Our results indicate that short-term stress does affect the acoustic structure of vocalizations, but elevated circulating GC levels do not mediate such changes.

Phenotypic Plasticity and Local Adaptation in a Wild Hibernator Evaluated through Reciprocal Translocation

Phenological shifts are the most commonly reported ecological responses to climate change and can be produced rapidly by phenotypic plasticity. However, both the limits of plasticity and whether it will be sufficient to maintain local adaptation (or even lead to maladaptation) are less clear. Increased winter precipitation has been shown to lead to phenological delays and corresponding annual decreases in fitness in Columbian ground squirrels (Urocitellus columbianus). We took advantage of natural phenological variation (across elevations) in this species to better assess the extent of phenotypic plasticity in emergence dates and the relationships between emergence dates and individual annual fitness. We coupled a reciprocal translocation experiment with natural monitoring across two populations separated by ∼500 m in elevation. Individuals in both populations responded plastically to both spring temperature and winter precipitation. Translocated individuals adjusted their emergence dates to approach those of individuals in their adoptive populations but did differ significantly in their emergence dates from residents. There were no differences in annual fitness among treatment groups nor selection on emergence date within a year. Phenotypic plasticity is thus sufficient to allow individuals to respond to broad environmental gradients, but the influence of variation in emergence dates on annual fitness requires further investigation.

Reproductive success delays moult phenology in a polar mammal

Animals can respond to dynamic environments through phenological plasticity of life history events; however, changes in one part of the annual cycle can diminish the success of subsequent life history events. Our aims were to determine the associations between reproduction and moult phenology across years and to quantify phenological plasticity across varying environmental conditions. We conducted demographic surveys of 4,252 flipper-tagged Weddell seals (Leptonychotes weddellii) in the Ross Sea, Antarctica during four austral summers. At each sighting, seals were assigned a moult code based on the visible presence of new fur and the start date of each animal’s moult was back-calculated. Reproductive success and parturition dates were obtained for the breeding season prior to and following the moult. We found that successful reproduction delayed moult by 16 days relative to non-parturient females. Phenology of the intervening moult was indicative of previous reproductive dynamics but not predictive of subsequent reproductive outcomes. Across years, moult phenology varied by about two weeks and covaried strongly with sea ice break-out timing for all reproductive categories. Our findings suggest these polar mammals have some flexibility within the annual cycle that allows adjustment of moult phenology to fluctuating environmental conditions without compromising future reproductive success.

Is biasing offspring sex ratio adaptive? A test of Fisher's principle across multiple generations of a wild mammal in a fluctuating environment

Fisher's principle explains that population sex ratio in sexually reproducing organisms is maintained at 1 : 1 owing to negative frequency-dependent selection, such that individuals of the rare sex realize greater reproductive opportunity than individuals of the more common sex until equilibrium is reached. If biasing offspring sex ratio towards the rare sex is adaptive, individuals that do so should have more grandoffspring. In a wild population of North American red squirrels (Tamiasciurus hudsonicus) that experiences fluctuations in resource abundance and population density, we show that overall across 26 years, the secondary sex ratio was 1 : 1; however, stretches of years during which adult sex ratio was biased did not yield offspring sex ratios biased towards the rare sex. Females that had litters biased towards the rare sex did not have more grandoffspring. Critically, the adult sex ratio was not temporally autocorrelated across years, thus the population sex ratio experienced by parents was independent of the population sex ratio experienced by their offspring at their primiparity. Expected fitness benefits of biasing offspring sex ratio may be masked or negated by fluctuating environments across years, which limit the predictive value of the current sex ratio.