Fluctuating selection driven by global and local climatic conditions leads to stasis in breeding time in a migratory bird

The magnitude of selection on growth varies among years and increases under warming conditions in a subarctic seabird

Because of ongoing rapid climate change, many ecosystems are becoming both warmer and more variable, and these changes are likely to alter the magnitude and variability of natural selection acting on wild populations. Critically, changes and fluctuations in selection can impact both population demography and evolutionary change. Therefore, predicting the impacts of climate change depends on understanding the magnitude and variation in selection on traits across different life stages and environments. Long-term experiments in wild settings are a great opportunity to determine the impact of environmental conditions on selection. Here we examined variability in the strength of selection on size traits of nestling black-legged kittiwakes (Rissa tridactyla) in a 25-year study including a food supplementation experiment on Middleton Island in the Gulf of Alaska. Using mixed effect models, we examined the annual variability of stage-specific and resource-specific selection gradients across 25 years. We found that (a) larger and heavier hatchlings were the most likely to survive during early ontogeny, (b) non-food supplemented younger nestlings in a brood experienced the strongest selection, and (c) warmer conditions increased the magnitude of selection on nestling mass and affected non-food supplemented and second-hatched nestlings the most. Our results suggested that variable resource dynamics likely caused some of the changes in selection from year to year and that warming conditions increased the strength of selection on subarctic seabird growth. However, our experimental manipulation revealed that local environmental heterogeneity could buffer the selection expected from broader climatic changes. Consequently, understanding the interactive effects of local conditions and general changes in climate seems likely to improve our ability to predict future selection gradients.

Phenotypic selection on an ornamental trait is not modulated by breeding density in a pied flycatcher population

Most studies of phenotypic selection in the wild have focussed on morphological and life‐history traits and looked at abiotic (climatic) variation as the main driver of selection. Consequently, our knowledge of the effects of biotic environmental variation on phenotypic selection on sexual traits is scarce. Population density can be considered a proxy for the intensity of intrasexual and intersexual competition and could therefore be a key factor influencing the covariation between individual fitness and the expression of sexual traits. Here, we used an individual‐based data set from a population of pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca) monitored over 24 years to analyze the effect of breeding density on phenotypic selection on dorsal plumage colouration, a heritable and sexually selected ornament in males of this species. Using the number of recruits as a fitness proxy, our results showed overall stabilizing selection on male dorsal colouration, with intermediate phenotypes being favoured over extremely dark and dull individuals. However, our results did not support the hypothesis that breeding density mediates phenotypic selection on this sexual trait. We discuss the possible role of other biotic factors influencing selection on ornamental plumage.