Stratification of hepatocellular carcinoma risk through modified FIB-4 index in chronic hepatitis B patients on entecavir therapy

A scoring system for predicting hepatocellular carcinoma risk in alcoholic cirrhosis

The role of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance is being questioned in alcoholic cirrhosis because of the relative low HCC risk. This study aimed to assess the risk and predictors of HCC in Korean patients with alcoholic cirrhosis by using competing risk analysis. A total of 745 patients with alcoholic cirrhosis were recruited at a university-affiliated hospital in Korea and randomly assigned to either the derivation (n = 507) and validation (n = 238) cohort. Subdistribution hazards model of Fine and Gray was used with deaths and liver transplantation treated as competing risks. Death records were confirmed from Korean government databases. A nomogram was developed to calculate the Alcohol-associated Liver Cancer Estimation (ALICE) score. The cumulative incidence of HCC was 15.3 and 13.3% at 10 years for derivation and validation cohort, respectively. Age, alpha-fetoprotein level, and albumin level were identified as independent predictors of HCC and incorporated in the ALICE score, which discriminated low, intermediate, and high risk for HCC in alcoholic cirrhosis at the cut-off of 60 and 100. The risk of HCC can be stratified by using a combination of readily available clinical parameters (age, AFP level, and albumin level) in patients with alcoholic cirrhosis.

Risk Factors and Prevention of Viral Hepatitis-Related Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a common cancer in the world, and its incidence is increasing yearly. Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection and hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection are important causes of HCC. Liver cirrhosis, age, sex, smoking and drinking, and metabolic risk factors will increase the risk of cancer in HBV/HCV patients. And viral load, APRI, FIB-4, and liver stiffness can all predict the risk of HCC in patients with viral infection. In addition, effective prevention strategies are essential in reducing the risk of HCC. The prevention of HCC involves mainly tertiary prevention strategies, while the primary prevention is based on standardized vaccine injections to prevent the occurrence of HBV/HCV. Eliminating the route of transmission and vaccination will lead to a decrease in the incidence of HCC. Secondary prevention involves effective antiviral treatment of HBV/HCV to prevent the disease from progressing to HCC, and tertiary prevention is actively treating HCC to prevent its recurrence.

Clinical usefulness of noninvasive fibrosis indices for predicting hepatocellular carcinoma in treatment-naïve patients with chronic hepatitis B following entecavir therapy

AIMS

This study aimed to evaluate the clinical usefulness of the aminotransferase to platelet ratio index (APRI), fibrosis-4 (FIB-4), and modified FIB-4 (mFIB-4) indices in predicting hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients receiving entecavir (ETV) treatment.

METHODS

Among 1955 patients treated with ETV, a total of 857 treatment-naive chronic hepatitis B patients (424 with liver cirrhosis [LC], 433 without cirrhosis) treated with ETV for more than 1 year were analyzed.

RESULTS

Of the 857 patients, 85 (9.9%) patients (77 in the LC group and 8 in the non-LC group) developed HCC during the follow-up period. The median observation period was 6.9 years. Multivariate regression analysis of HCC incidence revealed that the initial mFIB-4 index (hazard ratio [HR] 1.058; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.007-1.112; p = 0.027) and improvement in the FIB-4 index after 1 year of ETV treatment (HR 0.531; 95% CI, 0.339-0.831; p = 0.006) were independent prognostic factors in the entire cohort. In the LC group, the improvement of the FIB-4 index following ETV treatment (HR 0.491; 95% CI, 0.280-0.861; p = 0.013) was negatively correlated with incidence of HCC. However, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of specific cut-off values of the FIB-4 index at baseline and 1 year after ETV treatment were 0.572 (95% CI, 0.504-0.640) and 0.615 (95% CI, 0.546-0.684), respectively. In the non-LC group, none of the invasive fibrosis indices could predict HCC incidence.

CONCLUSIONS

The specific cut-off value of the FIB-4 index was not suitable for predicting HCC. However, the improvement in the FIB-4 index after 1 year of ETV therapy could be a predictor of HCC development in cirrhotic patients.

The FIB-4 Index Is a Useful Predictor for the Development of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients with Coexisting Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease and Chronic Hepatitis B

Simple Summary

This retrospective study analyzed 237 consecutive patients with coexisting nonalcoholic fatty liver disease and chronic hepatitis B (NAFLD-CHB) with long observation period (median follow-up duration, 13 years). The optimal cutoff for the FIB-4 index of 1.77 was calculated based on the maximum Youden index value, and the value was 1.77 with an AUC of 0.70. The significant higher risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with a high FIB-4 index (≥1.77) than the patients with a low FIB-4 index (<1.77) (adjusted hazard ratio, 4.35; 95% CI, 1.42–13.24; log-rank test, p = 0.006) were found among the NAFLD-CHB patients whose baseline characteristics were balanced by propensity score matching. The FIB-4 index might be a useful predictor of the development of HCC among NAFLD–CHB patients.

Abstract

Background: The FIB-4 index, a noninvasive tool (FIB-4 index = age × aspartate transaminase (AST)/(platelet count × √alanine aminotransferase (ALT)), is a useful assessment for liver fibrosis. Patients with a high FIB-4 index were reported to have a high risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This study analyzed the clinical association of the FIB-4 index with HCC development in patients with coexisting nonalcoholic fatty liver disease and chronic hepatitis B (NAFLD–CHB). Methods: This retrospective study analyzed 237 consecutive patients with NAFLD–CHB between January 2006 and December 2010 at the National Police Hospital in Korea. Patients with HCC at baseline and those diagnosed with HCC within 6 months from baseline were excluded. Propensity score matching analysis (PSM) was adopted to balance the baseline characteristics between patients with low and high FIB-4 index values. The cumulative rates of HCC development were compared between the two groups using the Kaplan–Meier method in the matched population. Results: The median follow-up duration was 13 years (interquartile range, 8.2–15.7). The optimal cutoff for the FIB-4 index of 1.77 was calculated based on the maximum Youden index value, with an AUC of 0.70. Among a total of 237 patients with NAFLD–CHB, HCC developed in 20 patients (8.4%) (14 of the 90 patients with a high FIB-4 index vs. 6 of the 147 patients (4.1%) with a low FIB-4 index; log-rank p = 0.003). Patients with a high FIB-4 index had a significantly and independently higher risk of HCC than those with a low FIB-4 index (adjusted hazard ratio, 4.35; 95%; confidence interval, 1.42–13.24; log-rank test, p = 0.006). Conclusion: A high FIB-4 index (≥1.77) might be a useful marker for predicting the development of HCC in patients with NAFLD–CHB.

Risk factors for the development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the leading contributors to cancer mortality worldwide and is a leading cause of death in individuals with chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection. It is uncertain how the presence of other metabolic factors and comorbidities influences HCC risk in HBV. Therefore, we performed a systematic literature review and meta-analysis to seek evidence for significant associations. MEDLINE, EMBASE and Web of Science databases were searched from 1 January 2000 to 24 June 2020 for studies investigating associations of metabolic factors and comorbidities with HCC risk in individuals with chronic HBV infection, written in English. We extracted data for meta-analysis and generated pooled effect estimates from a fixed-effects model. Pooled estimates from a random-effects model were also generated if significant heterogeneity was present. We identified 40 observational studies reporting on associations of diabetes mellitus (DM), hypertension, dyslipidaemia and obesity with HCC risk. Only DM had a sufficient number of studies for meta-analysis. DM was associated with >25% increase in hazards of HCC (fixed-effects hazards ratio [HR] 1.26, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.20-1.32, random-effects HR 1.36, 95% CI 1.23-1.49). This association was attenuated towards the null in a sensitivity analysis restricted to studies adjusted for metformin use. In conclusion, in adults with chronic HBV infection, DM is a significant risk factor for HCC, but further investigation of the influence of antidiabetic drug use and glycaemic control on this association is needed. Enhanced screening of individuals with HBV and diabetes may be warranted.

One-year Fibrosis-4 index helps identify minimal HCC risk in non-cirrhotic chronic hepatitis B patients with antiviral treatment

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index is a HCC predictor in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients. However, little is known about whether FIB-4 helps identify non-cirrhotic CHB patients with minimal HCC risk after prolonged nucleos(t)ide analogue (NA) therapy.

METHODS

A total of 1936 ethnically diverse, non-cirrhotic CHB patients were enrolled in this retrospective multi-national study. All patients received prolonged NA treatment, including entecavir and tenofovir disoproxil fumarate. We explored whether FIB-4 cutoff of 1.30, a marker indicative of mild fibrosis severity, could stratify HCC risks in these patients.

RESULTS

A total of 48 patients developed HCC after a mean follow-up of 6.98 years. FIB-4 level at 1 year after treatment (1-year FIB-4) was shown to be associated with HCC development and was superior to pre-treatment FIB-4 value. When patients were stratified by 1-year FIB-4 of 1.30, the high FIB-4 group was at an increased HCC risk compared to the low FIB-4 group, with a hazard ratio of 4.87 (95% confidence interval: 2.48-9.55). Multivariable analysis showed that sex and 1-year FIB-4 were independent predictors, with none of the 314 female patients with low 1-year FIB-4 developing HCC. Finally, 1-year FIB-4 of 1.30 consistently stratified HCC risks in patients with low PAGE-B score, a score composed of baseline age, sex and platelet count, and the annual incidence rate of HCC was 0.11% in those with PAGE-B < 10 + 1-year FIB-4 < 1.30.

CONCLUSIONS

In non-cirrhotic CHB patients receiving prolonged NA therapy, 1-year FIB-4 < 1.30 is useful for identifying those with minimal HCC risk by combining with female sex or low PAGE-B score.

Predictive score for hepatocellular carcinoma after hepatitis B e antigen loss in patients treated with entecavir or tenofovir

The risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after hepatitis B e antigen seroclearance (ESC) remains unclear. We established and validated a new risk prediction model for HCC development after ESC in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) receiving antiviral therapy (AVT). Between 2006 and 2016, 769 patients (training cohort) and 1,061 patients (validation cohort) with CHB who experienced ESC during AVT using entecavir (ETV) or tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) were recruited. In the multivariate analysis, male sex (hazard ratio [HR] = 2.092; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.152-3.800), cirrhosis (HR = 5.141; 95% CI = 2.367-11.167) and fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4) of >3.25 (HR = 2.070; 95% CI = 1.184-3.620) were the independent risk factors for HCC development (all P < .05). Accordingly, a novel HCC-ESC_AVT model was developed (1x[sex: male = 1, female = 0] + 3x(cirrhosis = 1, noncirrhosis = 0) + 1x(FIB-4: >3.25 = 1, ≤3.25 = 0). The cumulative risk for HCC development was significantly different among the risk groups based on the HCC-ESC_AVT category (0-1, 2-4 and 5 for the low-, intermediate- and high-risk groups, respectively) (overall P < .001, log-rank test). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for predicting HCC development 3, 5 and 10 years after ESC was 0.791, 0.771 and 0.790, respectively (all P < .05). The predictive value of the HCC-ESC_AVT model was similar in the validation cohort (AUC = 0.802, 0.774 and 0.776 at 3, 5 and 10 years, respectively; all P < .05). Hence, we have developed and validated a new HCC-ESC_AVT model for HCC development, which includes male sex, cirrhosis and FIB-4 of >3.25 as constituent variables.

Gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase-to-platelet ratio and the fibrosis-4 index in predicting hepatitis B virus-related hepatocellular carcinoma development in elderly chronic hepatitis B patients in China: A single-center retrospective study

Gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase-to-platelet ratio (GPR) and fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index have been reported to be useful predictors in predicting hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients. However, their predictive performances on HCC development have not been validated in elderly patients. Thus, the aim of this study was to evaluate the predictive values of the GPR and FIB-4 index on HCC in elderly CHB patients with in China.Between January 2007 and December 2016, 1011 CHB patients older than 60 years were enrolled in the study, and their data were retrospectively analyzed. Receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was used to determine the optimal cutoff points of GPR and the FIB-4 index. Cumulative HCC incidence rates were calculated by the Kaplan-Meier method and compared by the log-rank test. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to detect risk factors for HCC development. The prediction performances of GPR and FIB-4 index were compared based on time-dependent ROC analyses.After a median follow-up of 6.8 (interquartile range 3.9-8.4) years, 39 (3.9%) patients developed HCC. The ROC analysis of GPR and the FIB-4 index at the 5-year time point revealed that the optimal cutoff point was 0.23 for GPR and 4.15 for the FIB-4 index. When stratified by low and high GPR values and FIB-4 indices, the patients' subgroups showed significantly different cumulative incidences of HCC. The multivariate analysis revealed that high GPR (hazard ratio [HR] 4.224; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.891-9.434, P < .001) was an independent risk factor for HCC development, whereas a high FIB-4 index was not (HR 0.470; 95% CI 0.212-1.043; P = .063). In the time-dependent ROC analysis, GPR showed higher area under curve (AUC) values than the FIB-4 index did at all time points and reached statistical significance at the 5-, 7-, and 10-year time points (GPR vs FIB-4 index, AUC 0.725 vs 0.549 at 5 years, P = .005; GPR vs FIB-4 index, AUC 0.733 vs 0.578 at 7 years, P = .001; GPR vs FIB-4 index, AUC 0.837 vs 0.475 at 10 years, P < .001).In conclusion, our study suggests GPR is superior to the FIB-4 index in predicting HCC development in elderly CHB patients in China.

Recent advances in assessment and treatment of chronic hepatitis B

This paper reviews the recent advances in the assessment and treatment of chronic hepatitis B with regard to predicting inflammation and fibrosis with non-invasive biomarkers and transient elastography, clinical benefits of long-term nucleos(t)ide analog (NA) antiviral therapy, serological benefits (HBeAg and HBsAg loss) of concurrent or sequential NAs and pegylated interferon, as well as risk factors for the development of hepatocellular carcinoma.