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Ang TL. Editorial: Single colonoscopy-based colorectal cancer screening as a real-world cost-effective option. J Gastroenterol Hepatol 2024; 39:1210-1211. [PMID: 38994630 DOI: 10.1111/jgh.16671] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/12/2024] [Accepted: 06/17/2024] [Indexed: 07/13/2024]
Affiliation(s)
- Tiing Leong Ang
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Changi General Hospital, SingHealth, Singapore, Singapore
- Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
- Duke-NUS Medical School, Singapore, Singapore
- Lee Kong Chian School of Medicine, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, Singapore
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Ishibashi F, Okusa K, Tokai Y, Hirasawa T, Kawakami T, Mochida K, Yanai Y, Yokoi C, Hayashi Y, Ozawa SI, Uraushihara K, Minato Y, Nakanishi H, Ueyama H, Kataoka M, Toyama Y, Mizokami Y, Suzuki S. A mathematical simulation model to determine the optimal endoscopic screening strategy for detection of H. pylori-naïve gastric neoplasms. Gastric Cancer 2024:10.1007/s10120-024-01525-2. [PMID: 38937306 DOI: 10.1007/s10120-024-01525-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/03/2024] [Accepted: 06/16/2024] [Indexed: 06/29/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The effectiveness of esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGD) screening in cohorts with low Helicobacter pylori prevalence is unknown. This study aimed to develop an optimally efficient EGD screening strategy for detecting H. pylori-naïve gastric neoplasms (HpNGNs). METHODS EGD data of 12 institutions from 2016 to 2022 were retrospectively analyzed. Age-related HpNGN prevalence, tumor growth rate, missing rate, and detection threshold size were calculated from the databases. Subsequently, using clinical data, a novel mathematical model that simultaneously simulated demographic changes and HpNGN detection was developed. Screening strategies using different starting ages (40/45/50 years) and intervals (2/5/10 years) were also compared. The detection rates of all tumors occurring within the virtual cohort and number-needed-to-test (NNT) were measured as outcomes. RESULTS Data of 519,368 EGDs and 97 HpNGNs (34 pure signet ring cell carcinomas, 26 gastric adenocarcinomas of the fundic gland type, 30 foveolar gastric adenoma-Raspberry type, and seven undifferentiated-type cancer cases) were analyzed. A virtual cohort with a 70-year time horizon was used to simulate the occurrence, growth, and detection of 346,5836 people. Among the strategies with detection rate > 50%, the screening strategy with a 5-year interval starting at 45 years of age had the lowest NNT. Adopting this strategy, most HpNGNs were detected at < 20 mm in size, and the deep submucosal invasion rate was less than 30%. CONCLUSIONS A mathematical simulation model revealed that screening every 5 years starting at 45 years of age could efficiently assist in identifying HpNGNs at an early stage.
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Affiliation(s)
- Fumiaki Ishibashi
- Department of Gastroenterology, International University of Health and Welfare Ichikawa Hospital, 6-1-14, Konodai, Ichikawa-shi, Chiba, 272-0827, Japan.
| | - Kosuke Okusa
- Faculty of Science and Engineering, Department of Data Science for Business Innovation, Chuo University, Tokyo, 112-8551, Japan
| | - Yoshitaka Tokai
- Department of Gastroenterology, Cancer Institute Hospital, Tokyo, 135-8550, Japan
| | - Toshiaki Hirasawa
- Department of Gastroenterology, Cancer Institute Hospital, Tokyo, 135-8550, Japan
| | | | - Kentaro Mochida
- Department of Gastroenterology, International University of Health and Welfare Ichikawa Hospital, 6-1-14, Konodai, Ichikawa-shi, Chiba, 272-0827, Japan
- Koganei Tsurukame Clinic, Endoscopy Center, Tokyo, 184-0004, Japan
| | - Yuka Yanai
- National Center for Global Health and Medicine, Department of Gastroenterology, Tokyo, 162-8655, Japan
| | - Chizu Yokoi
- National Center for Global Health and Medicine, Department of Gastroenterology, Tokyo, 162-8655, Japan
| | - Yuko Hayashi
- National Center for Global Health and Medicine, Department of Medical Examination Center, Tokyo, 162-8655, Japan
| | - Shun-Ichiro Ozawa
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Japan Community Health Care Organization Yamanashi Hospital, Yamanashi, 400-0025, Japan
| | - Koji Uraushihara
- Department of Gastroenterology, Showa General Hospital, Tokyo, 187-8510, Japan
| | - Yohei Minato
- Department of Gastrointestinal Endoscopy, NTT Medical Center Tokyo, Tokyo, 141-8625, Japan
| | - Hiroyuki Nakanishi
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Musashino Red Cross Hospital, Tokyo, 180-8610, Japan
| | - Hiroya Ueyama
- Department of Gastroenterology, Juntendo University School of Medicine, Tokyo, 113-8431, Japan
| | - Mikinori Kataoka
- Department of Gastroenterology, International University of Health and Welfare Mita Hospital, Tokyo, 108-8239, Japan
| | - Yuzo Toyama
- Department of Gastroenterology, New Tokyo Hospital, Chiba, 270-2232, Japan
| | - Yuji Mizokami
- Department of Medical Examination Center, New Tokyo Hospital, Chiba, 270-2232, Japan
| | - Sho Suzuki
- Department of Gastroenterology, International University of Health and Welfare Ichikawa Hospital, 6-1-14, Konodai, Ichikawa-shi, Chiba, 272-0827, Japan
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