Capturing early signs of deterioration: the dutch-early-nurse-worry-indicator-score and its value in the Rapid Response System

Intensive Care Unit Without Walls

Critical illness is a continuum with different phases and trajectories. The "Intensive Care Unit (ICU) without walls" concept refers to a model whereby care is adjusted in response to the patient's needs, priorities, and preferences at each stage from detection, escalation, early decision making, treatment and organ support, followed by recovery and rehabilitation, within which all healthcare staff, and the patient are equal partners. The rapid response system incorporates monitoring and alerting tools, a multidisciplinary critical care outreach team and care bundles, supported with education and training, analytical and governance functions, which combine to optimise outcomes of critically ill patients, independent of location.

Nurse by numbers: The impact of early warning systems on nurses' higher-order thinking, a quantitative study

AIM

To evaluate registered nurses' perceptions of whether the mandated use of the early warning system vital signs tool impacts the development of nurses' higher-order thinking skills.

DESIGN

A concurrent mixed methods study design.

METHOD

Using an online survey, registered nurses' perceptions were elucidated on whether early warning system algorithmic tools affected the development of their higher-order thinking. Likert-type matrix questions with additional qualitative fields were used to obtain information on nurse's perceptions of the tool's usefulness, clinical confidence in using the tool, compliance with escalation protocols, work environment and perceived compliance barriers.

RESULTS

Most of the 305 (91%) participants included in the analysis had more than 5 years of nursing experience. Most nurses supported the early warning tool and were happy to comply with escalation protocols if the early warning score concurred with their assessment of the patient (63.6%). When the score and the nurse's higher-order thinking did not align, some had the confidence to override the escalation protocol (40.0%), while others omitted (69.4%) or inaccurately documented vital signs (63.3%) to achieve the desired score. Very few nurses (3.6%) believe using early warning tools did not impede the development of higher-order thinking.

CONCLUSION

Although experienced nurses appreciate the support of early warning tools, most value patient safety above the tools and rely on their higher-order thinking. The sustained development and use of nurses' higher-order thinking should be encouraged, possibly by adding a critical thinking criterion to existing algorithmic tools.

IMPACT

The study has implications for all nurses who utilize algorithmic tools, such as early warning systems, in their practice. Relying heavily on algorithmic tools risks impeding the development of higher-order thinking. Most experienced nurses prioritize their higher-order thinking in decision-making but believe early warning tools can impede higher-order thinking.

PATIENT OR PUBLIC CONTRIBUTION

Registered nurses participated as survey respondents.

Workload associated with manual assessment of vital signs as compared with continuous wireless monitoring

BACKGROUND

Vital sign monitoring is considered an essential aspect of clinical care in hospitals. In general wards, this relies on intermittent manual assessments performed by clinical staff at intervals of up to 12 h. In recent years, continuous monitoring of vital signs has been introduced to the clinic, with improved patient outcomes being one of several potential benefits. The aim of this study was to determine the workload difference between continuous monitoring and manual monitoring of vital signs as part of the National Early Warning Score (NEWS).

METHODS

Three wireless sensors continuously monitored blood pressure, heart rate, respiratory rate, and peripheral oxygen saturation in 20 patients admitted to the general hospital ward. The duration needed for equipment set-up and maintenance for continuous monitoring in a 24-h period was recorded and compared with the time spent on manual assessments and documentation of vital signs performed by clinical staff according to the NEWS.

RESULTS

The time used for continuous monitoring was 6.0 (IQR 3.2; 7.2) min per patient per day vs. 14 (9.7; 32) min per patient per day for the NEWS. Median difference in duration for monitoring of vital signs was 9.9 (95% CI 5.6; 21) min per patient per day between NEWS and continuous monitoring (p < .001). Time used for continuous monitoring in isolated patients was 6.6 (4.6; 12) min per patient per day as compared with 22 (9.7; 94) min per patient per day for NEWS.

CONCLUSION

The use of continuous monitoring was associated with a significant reduction in workload in terms of time for monitoring as compared with manual assessment of vital signs.

Automated rapid response system activation-Impact on nurses' attitudes and perceptions towards recognising and responding to clinical deterioration: Mixed-methods study

AIM

To explore general ward nurses' attitudes and perceptions towards recognising and responding to clinical deterioration in a hospital with automated rapid response system activation.

BACKGROUND

There is growing interest in deploying automated clinical deterioration notification systems to reduce delayed or failed recognition and response to clinical deterioration of ward patients. However, little is known about its impact on ward nurses' perspectives and work patterns.

DESIGN

A mixed-methods study.

METHODS

Online survey of 168 registered nurses and individual interviews with 10 registered nurses in one acute hospital in Singapore. The study adhered to the STROBE checklist for cross-sectional studies and the COREQ guidelines for qualitative studies.

RESULTS

Many nurses (38.1%) rarely performed patient assessments or observations other than vital signs assessment to assess for early signs of clinical deterioration. About 30% were worried about being criticised for calling the primary team doctors. Four themes emerged from the qualitative analysis: automated rapid response system activation as a safety net, being more cautious with vital signs monitoring, the NEWS2 alone is inadequate, and ward nurses as the 'middleman' between the intensive care unit outreach nurse and primary team doctors.

CONCLUSIONS

Although nurses value the automated rapid response system activation as a safety net to minimise delays in accessing urgent critical care resources, it does not address the sociocultural barriers inherent in escalation of care. Although the automated system led nurses to be more cautious with vital signs monitoring, it does not encourage them to perform comprehensive patient assessments to detect early signs of deterioration.

RELEVANCE TO CLINICAL PRACTICE

Nurse education on assessing for clinical deterioration should focus on the use of broader patient assessment skills other than vital signs. Sociocultural barriers to escalation of care remain a key issue that needs to be addressed by hospital management.

NO PATIENT OR PUBLIC CONTRIBUTION

No patients, service users, care-givers or members of the public were involved in the study.

Implementing Best Practices for Decreasing Nurse Hesitancy to Call the Rapid Response Team: An Evidence-Based Quality Improvement Initiative

BACKGROUND

Nurses, regardless of experience, sometimes wait for the Modified Early Warning Score to indicate physiological decline before initiating the hospital's Rapid Response Team (RRT). The goal of this quality improvement initiative was to reduce nurse hesitancy to call the RRT, as indicated by the monthly number of proactive calls before the Modified Early Warning Score increased and triggered an automated page.

METHOD

Education, planned handoff communication, debriefing, and good catch emails were the educational strategies used in the implementation of the quality improvement initiatives, encouraging RRT calls sooner. Increasing RRT knowledge and communication is an evidence-based practice strategy to reduce nurse reluctance to call the RRT.

RESULTS

After implementation, monthly proactive RRT calls increased (χ² [1, n = 1,964] = 14.6085, p = .000159). Bedside interventions, unscheduled transfers, and Acute Physiologic and Chronic Health Evaluation scores did not differ.

CONCLUSION

Education, structured handoff communication, and acknowledging good catches reduced nurses' reluctance to call the RRT proactively. [J Contin Educ Nurs. 2023;54(6):281-288.].

Predicting patient deterioration by nurse intuition: The development and validation of the nurse intuition patient deterioration scale

INTRODUCTION

Early warning scores based on vital signs are used in hospitals to estimate patient deterioration and to initiate an adequate and timely response when necessary. These scores show acceptable performance in predicting patient outcomes. However, they tend to generate many false positives leading to an increased workload in clinical practice. Additionally, nurses feel a tension between the application of an early warning score and their own clinical judgement. Nurse intuition is often included as an extra call criterion next to an early warning score. It is therefore important to investigate its predictive value. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a Nurse Intuition Patient Deterioration Scale (NIPDS).

METHODS

The NIPDS was developed using the latest evidence after which relevant items were selected by an expert panel. The scale was tested in a prospective observational study in 2 surgical and 2 medical wards in a Belgian hospital. Data were collected from December 1st, 2019 until March 31st, 2020. A NIPDS registration was done at each patient admission and whenever the attending nurse felt worried. The studied outcomes were urgent physician assistance call, resuscitation team call, patient death, and unplanned transfer to intensive/medium care. Psychometric analyses and scale optimisation were carried out using Rasch modelling techniques. Finally, the scale's accuracy and an optimal threshold were determined.

RESULTS

The scale item content validity index is 0.88 indicating that the selected items should be included in the instrument according to the expert panel. Item-total score correlation coefficients range between 0.573 (item 9 - pain) and 0.874 (item 6 - behaviour). The Person Separation Index is 0.814 indicating satisfactory discriminatory power. An overall fit of the NIPDS data to the Rasch model was confirmed. Rasch modelling showed that the item 'pain' signalled misfit. Furthermore, the person-item map showed disordered items which were corrected in the final model. The AUROC to predict an event within 24 h after registration was 0.957 (95% CI 0.932-0.982; p < 0.001) indicating excellent model performance.

DISCUSSION

The results showed that the NIPDS is a valid and accurate instrument to predict events in surgical and medical patients. It showed better performance compared to an existing score estimating nurse intuition. In practice, the NIPDS could be used by nurses to estimate clinical deterioration in addition to an early warning score. It remains unclear if the combination of NIPDS with an early warning score could reduce workload without losing accuracy and this should be explored in future research.

TWEETABLE ABSTRACT

Newly developed nurse intuition scale, which uses clinical cues to estimate deterioration in hospitalised patients, is brief and performs well in predicting physician assistance, resuscitation team calls, patient death and unplanned transfer to intensive or medium care.

Interpretation of continuously measured vital signs data of COVID-19 patients by nurses and physicians at the general ward: A mixed methods study

BACKGROUND

Continuous monitoring of vital signs is introduced at general hospital wards to detect patient deterioration. Interpretation and response currently rely on experience and expert opinion. This study aims to determine whether consensus exist among hospital professionals regarding the interpretation of vital signs of COVID-19 patients. In addition, we assessed the ability to recognise respiratory insufficiency and evaluated the interpretation process.

METHODS

We performed a mixed methods study including 24 hospital professionals (6 nurses, 6 junior physicians, 6 internal medicine specialists, 6 ICU nurses). Each participant was presented with 20 cases of COVID-19 patients, including 4 or 8 hours of continuously measured vital signs data. Participants estimated the patient's situation ('improving', 'stable', or 'deteriorating') and the possibility of developing respiratory insufficiency. Subsequently, a semi-structured interview was held focussing on the interpretation process. Consensus was assessed using Krippendorff's alpha. For the estimation of respiratory insufficiency, we calculated the mean positive/negative predictive value. Interviews were analysed using inductive thematic analysis.

RESULTS

We found no consensus regarding the patient's situation (α 0.41, 95%CI 0.29-0.52). The mean positive predictive value for respiratory insufficiency was high (0.91, 95%CI 0.86-0.97), but the negative predictive value was 0.66 (95%CI 0.44-0.88). In the interviews, two themes regarding the interpretation process emerged. "Interpretation of deviations" included the strategies participants use to determine stability, focused on finding deviations in data. "Inability to see the patient" entailed the need of hospital professionals to perform a patient evaluation when estimating a patient's situation.

CONCLUSION

The interpretation of continuously measured vital signs by hospital professionals, and recognition of respiratory insufficiency using these data, is variable, which might be the result of different interpretation strategies, uncertainty regarding deviations, and not being able to see the patient. Protocols and training could help to uniform interpretation, but decision support systems might be necessary to find signs of deterioration that might otherwise go unnoticed.

Beyond objective measurements: Danish nurses' identification of hospitalized pediatric patients at risk of clinical deterioration - A qualitative study

PURPOSE

While the use of Pediatric Track and Trigger Tools as a standard to discriminate high level of urgency in pediatric care has received considerable attention, less focus has been given to other important factors such as nurses' clinical observations and judgement. The purpose of this study was to explore nurses' observational practice and focus on which non-measurable signs and symptoms nurses find important when identifying inpatient pediatric patients at risk of clinical deterioration.

DESIGN AND METHODS

This was an inductive qualitative study based on an interpretive description methodology. Data were obtained through participant observation of experienced nurses working in a Danish pediatric unit and focus group interviews with pediatric nurses. Field notes were taken, and focus group interviews were audio taped and transcribed. A thematic text condensation method was used to analyse data.

RESULTS

Findings revealed the following four main themes of non-measurable signs and symptoms that nurses find important when identifying children at risk of clinical deterioration: Colour and skin tone; sounds; movement patterns; behavioural signs.

CONCLUSIONS

This study suggest that pediatric patients show signs and symptoms that go beyond the objective measurements integrated in Pediatric Track and Trigger Tools and they should not be ignored as they are highly valuable to nurses who are responsible for observing inpatient pediatric patients at risk of clinical deterioration.

IMPLICATIONS

More empirical research on nurses' observational practice is recommended, especially research to identify the signs and symptoms - both measurable and non-measurable - that are significant to nurses at the bedside.

Development and psychometric evaluation of the Attitudes Towards Recognising Early and Noticeable Deterioration (ATREND) scale

AIMS AND OBJECTIVES

To develop and evaluate the psychometric properties of an instrument that measures nurses' Attitudes Towards Recognising Early and Noticeable Deterioration (ATREND).

BACKGROUND

General ward nurses play an important role in recognising patient deterioration. However, their attitudes towards early recognition of clinical deterioration have not been adequately explored due to the lack of a valid and reliable scale.

DESIGN

An instrument development and validation study.

METHODS

A three-phase structure that followed the STROBE checklist was used: (1) item generation, (2) content and face validity assessment and (3) psychometric properties evaluation. The scale items were developed based on a comprehensive literature review and content validity assessment by 15 international experts from five countries. The psychometric properties of the ATREND scale were tested on 434 registered nurses, with retest evaluations (n = 100) at two hospitals. Exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses were used to examine the factor structure of the scale. The scale was also evaluated for its internal consistency, test-retest reliability and convergent validity.

RESULTS

The scale's content validity was 0.95. A 3-factor solution was identified from the final 11 items: (1) beliefs about importance of patient observation, (2) use of broader patient assessment skills and (3) confidence in recognising clinical deterioration. The internal consistency reliability of the scale was supported with an acceptable Cronbach's alpha value of 0.745. Test-retest reliability of the scale was excellent, with an intraclass correlation coefficient of 0.825. The ATREND scale shows evidence of good convergent validity.

CONCLUSION

The final 11-item ATREND scale demonstrates adequate initial evidence of reliability and validity for use in acute ward settings.

RELEVANCE TO CLINICAL PRACTICE

Nursing educators and clinicians may use this scale to assess ward nurses' attitudes and practices towards early recognition of clinical deterioration and then enhance their competencies and behaviours in the recognition of clinical deterioration.

Surgical nurses' responses to worry: A qualitative focus-group study in the Netherlands

BACKGROUND

Hospital nurses observe and respond to deterioration using the 'National Early Warning Score 2'. Surgical nurses are highly engaged in the early recognition of and response to deterioration. Responses to deterioration are based on deviating vital signs, while nurses also act on subjective indicators like worry. Scientific literature and (inter)national guidelines do not mention any information about acting upon worry.

OBJECTIVE

To gain an in-depth understanding of the actions nurses on surgical wards undertake to generate an appropriate response to nurses' worry when the 'National Early Warning Score 2' does not indicate deterioration.

METHOD

A qualitative focus-group study with surgical nurses working at a hospital in the Netherlands. Data was collected by focus-group interviews supported by vignettes and analysed thematically.

FINDINGS

Four focus-group interviews with a total of 20 participants were conducted between February and April 2020. Two sequential themes emerged: 'Searching for explanation and confirmation' and 'Responding by actively applying nursing interventions'. Nurses gathered additional information about the patient and searched for a reference point to place this information in perspective. Nurses also approached others for co-assessment and verification. However, nurses faced barriers in calling for medical assistance. They felt physicians did not take them seriously. After gathering additional information, nurses responded by applying nursing interventions to comfort the patient.

CONCLUSION

Nurses mainly try to formalise an in-depth understanding of their feeling of worry to convince a physician to accurately treat the patient. Spending much time on a search to this understanding leads to delays in escalating care.

Evidence That Nurses Need to Participate in Diagnosis: Lessons From Malpractice Claims

OBJECTIVES

There is a pressing need for nurses to contribute as equals to the diagnostic process. The purpose of this article is twofold: (a) to describe the contributing factors in diagnosis-related and failure-to-monitor malpractice claims in which nurses are named the primary responsible party and (b) to describe actions healthcare leaders can take to enhance the role of nurses in diagnosis.

METHODS

We conducted a review of the Controlled Risk Insurance Company Strategies' repository of malpractice claims, which contain approximately 30% of United States claims. We analyzed the malpractice claims related to diagnosis (n = 139) and physiologic monitoring (n = 647) naming nurses as the primary responsible party from 2007 to 2016. We used logistic regression to determine the association of contributing factors to likelihood of death, indemnity, and expenses incurred.

RESULTS

Diagnosis-related cases listing communication among providers as a contributing factor were associated with a significantly higher likelihood of death (odds ratio [OR] = 3.01, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.50-6.03). Physiologic monitoring cases listing communication among providers as a contributing factor were associated with significantly higher likelihood of death (OR = 2.21, 95% CI = 1.49-3.27), higher indemnity incurred (U.S. $86,781, 95% CI = $18,058-$175,505), and higher expenses incurred (U.S. $20,575, 95% CI = $3685-$37,465).

CONCLUSIONS

Nurses are held legally accountable for their role in diagnosis. Raising system-wide awareness of the critical role and responsibility of nurses in the diagnostic process and enhancing nurses' knowledge and skill to fulfill those responsibilities are essential to improving diagnosis.

Signs and symptoms, apart from vital signs, that trigger nurses' concerns about deteriorating conditions in hospitalized paediatric patients: A scoping review

Aim

This scoping review aimed to identify and map the signs and symptoms—apart from vital signs—that trigger nurses’ concerns about the deteriorating conditions of hospitalized paediatric patients.

Design

A scoping review was conducted in accordance with the Joanna Briggs Institute methodology.

Methods

Six databases, including MEDLINE, CINAHL, Embase, Scopus, Swemed and ProQuest Dissertations and Theses databases, were searched systematically. Of 5795 citations, seven matched the inclusion criteria.

Results

Objective observations, such as the patient's colour, pain‐level changes, and behavioural observations, were identified as signs that would trigger nurses’ concerns. Nurse's intuitive feelings or gut feelings when seeing a patient was also identified as an important factor for identifying a deteriorating paediatric patient. A “gut feeling” was described as both a reaction to patient signs and a feeling based on the nurse's intuition gained through experience. The signs or symptoms that would trigger this “gut feeling” were not identified.

Development of an evidence-based ESCALATION system for recognition and response to paediatric clinical deterioration

AIM

The aim of this study was to develop an evidence-based paediatric early warning system for infants and children that takes into consideration a variety of paediatric healthcare contexts and addresses barriers to escalation of care.

METHODS

A three-stage intervention development framework consisted of Stage 1: evidence review, benchmarking, stakeholder (health professionals, decision-makers, and health consumers) engagement, and consultation; Stage 2: planning and coproduction by the researchers and stakeholders using action research cycles; and Stage 3: prototyping and testing.

RESULTS

A prototype evidence-based system incorporated human factor principles, used a structured approach to patient assessment, promoted situational awareness, and included family as well as clinician concern. Family involvement in detecting changes in their child's condition was supported by posters and flyers codesigned with health consumers. Five age-specific observation and response charts included 10 weighted variables and one unweighted variable (temperature) to convey a composite early warning score. The escalation pathway was supported by a targeted communication framework (iSoBAR NOW).

CONCLUSION

The development process resulted in an agreed uniform ESCALATION system incorporating a whole-system approach to promote critical thinking, situational awareness for the early recognition of paediatric clinical deterioration as well as timely and effective escalation of care. Incorporating family involvement was a novel component of the system.

A new situation awareness model decreases clinical deterioration in the emergency departments-A controlled intervention study

BACKGROUND

Studies have suggested that adding subjective parameters to early warning score (EWS) systems might prompt more proactive treatment and positively affect clinical outcomes. Hence, the study aimed to investigate effect of a situation awareness model consisting of objective and subjective parameters on clinical deterioration in adult emergency department (ED) patients.

METHODS

This controlled pre-and-post interventional study was carried out in July-December 2016 and November 2017-April 2018. In ED patients ≥ 18 years, we examined if a situation awareness model compared with a conventional EWS system could reduce clinical deterioration. The new model consisted of a regional EWS, combined with skin observation, clinical concern and patients' and relatives' concerns, pain, dyspnea, and team risk assessment. Clinical deterioration was defined as change in vital signs requiring increased observation or physician assessment, that is, increase in early warning score from either 0 or 1 to score ≥2 or an increase from score ≥2 and above. Secondary outcomes were mortality, intensive care unit (ICU) admissions, and readmissions.

RESULTS

We included 34 556 patients. Patients with two or more registered EWS were included in the primary analysis (N = 21 839). Using difference-in-difference regression, we found a reduced odds of clinical deterioration of 21% (OR 0.79 95% CI [0.69; 0.90]) in the intervention groups compared with controls. No impact on mortality, ICU, or readmissions was found.

CONCLUSION

The situation awareness model reduces odds of clinical deterioration, defined as a clinically relevant increase in EWS, in an unselected adult population of ED patients. However, there was no effect on secondary outcomes.

Factors Associated With the Rate of Sepsis After Surgery

BACKGROUND

Sepsis is a critical illness that requires early detection and intervention to prevent disability and/or death.

OBJECTIVE

To analyze the association between various hospital-related factors and rates of sepsis after surgery in Massachusetts hospitals.

METHODS

The sample consisted of 53 hospitals with intensive or critical care units and 25 hospitals with step-down units. Hospital characteristics, staffing levels, and health care-acquired conditions were examined using publicly available data. Analysis of variance and linear regression were performed to explore the relationship between nurse and physician staffing levels and sepsis rates.

RESULTS

Sepsis rates were significantly lower when nurses cared for fewer patients (P < .001) and when intensivist hours were greater (P = .03). Linear regression for nurse staffing revealed that higher rates of catheter-associated urinary tract infection (P = .001) and higher numbers of step-down patients cared for by nurses (P = .001) were associated with a significantly higher rate of sepsis (P < .001). Linear regression for physician staffing revealed that higher rates of catheter-associated urinary tract infection (P < .001) and wound dehiscence after surgery (P < .001), greater hospitalist hours (P = .001), and greater physician hours (P = .05) were associated with a significantly higher sepsis rate, while greater intensivist hours were associated with a lower sepsis rate (P = .002).

CONCLUSION

In this study, greater nurse staffing and intensivist hours were associated with significantly lower rates of sepsis, whereas greater physician staffing and hospitalist hours were associated with significantly higher rates. Further research is needed to understand the roles of the various types of providers and the reasons for their differing effects on sepsis rates.

[Adult advanced life support]

These European Resuscitation Council Advanced Life Support guidelines are based on the 2020 International Consensus on Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation Science with Treatment Recommendations. This section provides guidelines on the prevention of and ALS treatments for both in-hospital cardiac arrest and out-of-hospital cardiac arrest.

Emergency department management of older people living with frailty: a guide for emergency practitioners

Emergency Departments (EDs) are increasingly seeing more seriously unwell older people living with frailty. In the context of limited resources and increasing demand it's the ED practitioner's challenge to unpick this constellation of physical, psychological, functional and social issues.To properly assess older people living with frailty at the ED it is crucial to use an holistic approach. This consists of triage with algorithms sensitive to the higher risk of older people living with frailty, a frailty assessment, and an assessment with the help of the principles of Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment. Multi-disciplinary care, a tailor-made treatment plan, based on what the person values most, will help the ED practitioner to deliver appropriate and valuable care during the ED stay, but also in transition from hospital to home.

European Resuscitation Council Guidelines 2021: Adult advanced life support

These European Resuscitation Council Advanced Life Support guidelines, are based on the 2020 International Consensus on Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation Science with Treatment Recommendations. This section provides guidelines on the prevention of and ALS treatments for both in-hospital cardiac arrest and out-of-hospital cardiac arrest.

Consensus on predictors of clinical deterioration in emergency departments: A Delphi process study

AIM

The study aim was to determine relevance and applicability of generic predictors of clinical deterioration in emergency departments based on consensus among clinicians.

METHODS

Thirty-three predictors of clinical deterioration identified from literature were assessed in a modified two-stage Delphi-process. Sixty-eight clinicians (physicians and nurses) participated in the first round and 48 in the second round; all treating hospitalized patients in Danish emergency departments, some with pre-hospital experience. The panel rated the predictors for relevance (relevant marker of clinical deterioration) and applicability (change in clinical presentation over time, generic in nature and possible to detect bedside). They rated their level of agreement on a 9-point Likert scale and were also invited to propose additional generic predictors between the rounds. New predictors suggested by more than one clinician were included in the second round along with non-consensus predictors from the first round. Final decisions of non-consensus predictors after second round were made by a research group and an impartial physician.

RESULTS

The Delphi-process resulted in 19 clinically relevant and applicable predictors based on vital signs and parameters (respiratory rate, saturation, dyspnoea, systolic blood pressure, pulse rate, abnormal electrocardiogram, altered mental state and temperature), biochemical tests (serum c-reactive protein, serum bicarbonate, serum lactate, serum pH, serum potassium, glucose, leucocyte counts and serum haemoglobin), objective clinical observations (skin conditions) and subjective clinical observations (pain reported as new or escalating, and relatives' concerns).

CONCLUSION

The Delphi-process led to consensus of 19 potential predictors of clinical deterioration widely accepted as relevant and applicable in emergency departments.

Signs and symptoms that trigger nurses' concerns about deteriorating conditions in hospitalized pediatric patients: a scoping review protocol

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this scoping review is to identify and map the signs and symptoms that trigger nurses' concerns about the deteriorating conditions of hospitalized pediatric patients.

INTRODUCTION

Standardized observations and risk assessments of hospitalized pediatric patients are important in modern health systems. The Pediatric Early Warning Score (PEWS) is based on objective criteria, such as vital parameters, but does not include subjective criteria, such as nurses' worry. A Dutch study has shown that adding indicators for "worry" or "concern" to an early warning system based on vital signs improves the prediction of unplanned adult admissions to intensive care units. However, this has not been studied in a pediatric population. Clarifying the signs and symptoms that trigger nurses' concerns about pediatric patients' conditions could possibly help them take actions based on their intuitive feelings and obtain medical support for pediatric patients in the early stages of deterioration.

INCLUSION CRITERIA

This review will consider studies that include nurses working in hospital settings who care for pediatric patients (up to 18 years of age). Specifically, this scoping review will explore the signs and symptoms that underlie nurses' concerns about a pediatric patient's condition when the patient's vital signs are not a cause of worry.

METHODS

This scoping review will be conducted in accordance with the JBI methodology for scoping reviews. The review will search MEDLINE (via PubMed), CINAHL, Embase, Scopus and Swemed databases. The review will also search for unpublished PhD dissertations using the ProQuest Dissertations and Theses.

Relationships between the National Early Warning Score 2, clinical worry and patient outcome at discharge: Retrospective observational study

AIMS AND OBJECTIVES

To examine the performance of the National Early Warning Score 2 and composite score for clinical worry in identifying patients at risk of clinical deterioration, and to determine relationships between National Early Warning Score 2, clinical worry score and patient outcome at discharge.

BACKGROUND

The efficacy of early warning systems depends on patient population and care settings. Based on a theoretical framework on factors affecting clinical deterioration and patient outcomes, studies exploring the relationship between early warning systems and patient outcomes at discharge are sparse.

DESIGN

Retrospective observational study.

METHODS

A random sample of 732 medical records were reviewed. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was calculated to evaluate predictive abilities regarding the events of unanticipated in-hospital mortality, unplanned intensive care unit/ higher dependency bed admission and cardiac arrest. Multiple logistic regression analyses were performed to determine relationships between National Early Warning Score 2, clinical worry score and patient outcome. Reporting followed the STROBE checklist.

RESULTS

National Early Warning Score 2 and clinical worry score significantly predicted the events within 24 hr of the assessment. After controlling for other patient, treatment and organisational characteristics, National Early Warning Score 2 was a significant factor associated with patient outcome, but clinical worry score was not. Specifically, patients at high risk based on National Early Warning Score 2 were less likely to have improved outcome.

CONCLUSIONS

National Early Warning Score 2 and clinical worry score performed well for predicting deteriorating condition of patients. National Early Warning Score 2 was significantly associated with patient outcome. It can be used for efficient patient management for safe, quality care.

RELEVANCE TO CLINICAL PRACTICE

National Early Warning Score 2 can be used for early assessment of not only clinical deterioration but also patient outcome and provide timely intervention, when coupled with clinical worry score.

Early warning scores for detecting deterioration in adult hospital patients: systematic review and critical appraisal of methodology

OBJECTIVE

To provide an overview and critical appraisal of early warning scores for adult hospital patients.

DESIGN

Systematic review.

DATA SOURCES

Medline, CINAHL, PsycInfo, and Embase until June 2019.

ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA FOR STUDY SELECTION

Studies describing the development or external validation of an early warning score for adult hospital inpatients.

RESULTS

13 171 references were screened and 95 articles were included in the review. 11 studies were development only, 23 were development and external validation, and 61 were external validation only. Most early warning scores were developed for use in the United States (n=13/34, 38%) and the United Kingdom (n=10/34, 29%). Death was the most frequent prediction outcome for development studies (n=10/23, 44%) and validation studies (n=66/84, 79%), with different time horizons (the most frequent was 24 hours). The most common predictors were respiratory rate (n=30/34, 88%), heart rate (n=28/34, 83%), oxygen saturation, temperature, and systolic blood pressure (all n=24/34, 71%). Age (n=13/34, 38%) and sex (n=3/34, 9%) were less frequently included. Key details of the analysis populations were often not reported in development studies (n=12/29, 41%) or validation studies (n=33/84, 39%). Small sample sizes and insufficient numbers of event patients were common in model development and external validation studies. Missing data were often discarded, with just one study using multiple imputation. Only nine of the early warning scores that were developed were presented in sufficient detail to allow individualised risk prediction. Internal validation was carried out in 19 studies, but recommended approaches such as bootstrapping or cross validation were rarely used (n=4/19, 22%). Model performance was frequently assessed using discrimination (development n=18/22, 82%; validation n=69/84, 82%), while calibration was seldom assessed (validation n=13/84, 15%). All included studies were rated at high risk of bias.

CONCLUSIONS

Early warning scores are widely used prediction models that are often mandated in daily clinical practice to identify early clinical deterioration in hospital patients. However, many early warning scores in clinical use were found to have methodological weaknesses. Early warning scores might not perform as well as expected and therefore they could have a detrimental effect on patient care. Future work should focus on following recommended approaches for developing and evaluating early warning scores, and investigating the impact and safety of using these scores in clinical practice.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

PROSPERO CRD42017053324.

Adjusting Early Warning Score by clinical assessment: a study protocol for a Danish cluster-randomised, multicentre study of an Individual Early Warning Score (I-EWS)

INTRODUCTION

Track and trigger systems (TTSs) based on vital signs are implemented in hospitals worldwide to identify patients with clinical deterioration. TTSs may provide prognostic information but do not actively include clinical assessment, and their impact on severe adverse events remain uncertain. The demand for prospective, multicentre studies to demonstrate the effectiveness of TTSs has grown the last decade. Individual Early Warning Score (I-EWS) is a newly developed TTS with an aggregated score based on vital signs that can be adjusted according to the clinical assessment of the patient. The objective is to compare I-EWS with the existing National Early Warning Score (NEWS) algorithm regarding clinical outcomes and use of resources.

METHOD AND ANALYSIS

In a prospective, multicentre, cluster-randomised, crossover, non-inferiority study. Eight hospitals are randomised to use either NEWS in combination with the Capital Region of Denmark NEWS Override System (CROS) or implement I-EWS for 6.5 months, followed by a crossover. Based on their clinical assessment, the nursing staff can adjust the aggregated score with a maximum of -4 or +6 points. We expect to include 150 000 unique patients. The primary endpoint is all-cause mortality at 30 days. Coprimary endpoint is the average number of times per day a patient is NEWS/I-EWS-scored, and secondary outcomes are all-cause mortality at 48 hours and at 7 days as well as length of stay.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The study was presented for the Regional Ethics committee who decided that no formal approval was needed according to Danish law (J.no. 1701733). The I-EWS study is a large prospective, randomised multicentre study that investigates the effect of integrating a clinical assessment performed by the nursing staff in a TTS, in a head-to-head comparison with the internationally used NEWS with the opportunity to use CROS.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT03690128.

Is it possible to quickly identify acutely unwell patients who can be safely managed as outpatients? The need for a "Universal Safe to Discharge Score"

If scores or algorithms were developed that quickly identified patients who are bound to have 100% survival, if even only for a few days, more patients could be safely discharged from emergency department, this eliminating the risks of hospitalization for many patients. This hypothesis proposes that it is possible to develop a "Universal Safe to Discharge Score", and suggests how it might be developed and validated.

The fifth vital sign? Nurse worry predicts inpatient deterioration within 24 hours

Introduction

Identification of hospitalized patients with suddenly unfavorable clinical course remains challenging. Models using objective data elements from the electronic health record may miss important sources of information available to nurses.

Methods

We recorded nurses’ perception of patient potential for deterioration in 2 medical and 2 surgical adult hospital units using a 5-point score at the start of the shift (the Worry Factor [WF]), and any time a change or an increase was noted by the nurse. Cases were evaluated by three reviewers. Intensive care unit (ICU) transfers were also tracked.

Results

31 159 patient-shifts were recorded for 3185 unique patients during 3551 hospitalizations, with 169 total outcome events. Out of 492 potential deterioration events identified, 380 (77%) were confirmed by reviewers as true deterioration events. Likelihood ratios for ICU transfer were 17.8 (15.2–20.9) in the 24 hours following a WF > 2, and 40.4 (27.1–60.1) following a WF > 3. Accuracy rates were significantly higher in nurses with over a year of experience (68% vs 79%, P = 0.04). The area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUROC) was 0.92 for the prediction of ICU transfer within 24 hours.

Discussion

This is a higher accuracy than most published early warning scores.

Conclusion

Nurses’ pattern recognition and sense of worry can provide important information for the detection of acute physiological deterioration and should be included in the electronic medical record.

Risk stratification to improve Pediatric Early Warning Systems: it is all about the context

Early recognition of critically ill patients is of paramount importance to reduce pediatric mortality and morbidity. We created a risk stratification system combining vital parameters and predefined risk factors aimed at reducing the risk of unrecognized clinical deterioration compared with conventional Pediatric Early Warning Systems (PEWS). This single-center retrospective case cohort study included infants (gestational age ≥ 37 weeks) to adolescents (aged <18 years) with unplanned pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) admission between April 01, 2014, and February 28, 2018. The sensitivity in the 24 h prior to endpoint of the Pediatric Risk Evaluation and Stratification System (PRESS) was compared with that of the conventional PEWS and calculated as the proportion of study patients who received a high-risk score. Seventy-four PICU admissions were included. PRESS and PEWS sensitivities at 2 h prior to endpoint were 0.70 (95%CI 0.59 to 0.80) and 0.30 (95%CI 0.20 to 0.42) respectively (p < 0.001). Excluding patients with seizures, PRESS sensitivity increased to 0.75 (95%CI 0.64 to 0.85). Forty-nine patients (66%) scored positive on at least one high-risk factor, and "worried sign" was scored in 31 patients (42%).Conclusion: Risk stratification seems advantageous for a faster detection of clinical deterioration, providing opportunity for earlier intervention. What is Known: • Prompt detection of clinical deterioration is of essential importance to reduce morbidity and mortality. • Conventional Pediatric Early Warning Systems (PEWS) have limited sensitivity and a short window of detection of 1 to 2 h. What is New: • Risk stratification based on context factors allows earlier identification of patients at risk, well before deviation of vital signs. • Risk stratification combined with continuous monitoring of deteriorating trends in vital signs could lead to the development of next-generation warning systems achieving true patient safety.