Designing for military pararescue: Naturalistic decision-making perspective, methods, and frameworks

Microgravity induces overconfidence in perceptual decision-making

Does gravity affect decision-making? This question comes into sharp focus as plans for interplanetary human space missions solidify. In the framework of Bayesian brain theories, gravity encapsulates a strong prior, anchoring agents to a reference frame via the vestibular system, informing their decisions and possibly their integration of uncertainty. What happens when such a strong prior is altered? We address this question using a self-motion estimation task in a space analog environment under conditions of altered gravity. Two participants were cast as remote drone operators orbiting Mars in a virtual reality environment on board a parabolic flight, where both hyper- and microgravity conditions were induced. From a first-person perspective, participants viewed a drone exiting a cave and had to first predict a collision and then provide a confidence estimate of their response. We evoked uncertainty in the task by manipulating the motion's trajectory angle. Post-decision subjective confidence reports were negatively predicted by stimulus uncertainty, as expected. Uncertainty alone did not impact overt behavioral responses (performance, choice) differentially across gravity conditions. However microgravity predicted higher subjective confidence, especially in interaction with stimulus uncertainty. These results suggest that variables relating to uncertainty affect decision-making distinctly in microgravity, highlighting the possible need for automatized, compensatory mechanisms when considering human factors in space research.

Decision Inertia in Critical Incidents

Abstract. When presented with competing options, critical incident decision makers often struggle to commit to a choice (in particular when all options appear to yield negative consequences). Despite being motivated to take action in disasters, terrorism, major investigations, and complex political interventions, decision makers can become inert, looping between phases of situation assessment, option generation, and option evaluation. This “looping” is functionally redundant when it persists until they have lost the opportunity to take action. We define this as “decision inertia”: the result of a process of (redundant) deliberation over possible options and in the absence of any further useful information. In the context of critical incidents (political, security, military, law enforcement) we have discovered that rather than disengaging and avoiding difficult choices, decision makers are acutely aware of the negative consequences that might arise if they failed to decide (i.e., the incident would escalate). The sensitization to possible future outcomes leads to intense deliberation over possible choices and their consequences and, ultimately, can result in a failure to take any action in time (or at all). We (i) discuss decision inertia as a novel psychological process of redundant deliberation during crises; (ii) define the concept and discuss the emerging studies in support of our tentative hypotheses regarding how the cognitively active process of deliberation can result in complete behavioral inactivity; and (iii) suggest recommendations and interventions for combatting inertia.

Integrated System Design: Promoting the Capacity of Sociotechnical Systems for Adaptation through Extensions of Cognitive Work Analysis

This paper proposes an approach for integrated system design, which has the intent of facilitating high levels of effectiveness in sociotechnical systems by promoting their capacity for adaptation. Building on earlier ideas and empirical observations, this approach recognizes that to create adaptive systems it is necessary to integrate the design of all of the system elements, including the interfaces, teams, training, and automation, such that workers are supported in adapting their behavior as well as their structure, or organization, in a coherent manner. Current approaches for work analysis and design are limited in regard to this fundamental objective, especially in cases when workers are confronted with unforeseen events. A suitable starting point is offered by cognitive work analysis (CWA), but while this framework can support actors in adapting their behavior, it does not necessarily accommodate adaptations in their structure. Moreover, associated design approaches generally focus on individual system elements, and those that consider multiple elements appear limited in their ability to facilitate integration, especially in the manner intended here. The proposed approach puts forward the set of possibilities for work organization in a system as the central mechanism for binding the design of its various elements, so that actors can adapt their structure as well as their behavior—in a unified fashion—to handle both familiar and novel conditions. Accordingly, this paper demonstrates how the set of possibilities for work organization in a system may be demarcated independently of the situation, through extensions of CWA, and how it may be utilized in design. This lynchpin, conceptualized in the form of a diagram of work organization possibilities (WOP), is important for preserving a system's inherent capacity for adaptation. Future research should focus on validating these concepts and establishing the feasibility of implementing them in industrial contexts.