Refining prognosis after trans-arterial chemo-embolization for hepatocellular carcinoma

Predicting Survival Using Whole-Liver MRI Radiomics in Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma After TACE Refractoriness

PURPOSE

To develop a model based on whole-liver radiomics features of pre-treatment enhanced MRI for predicting the prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients undergoing continued transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) after TACE-resistance.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Data from 111 TACE-resistant HCC patients between January 2014 and March 2018 were retrospectively collected. At a ratio of 7:3, patients were randomly assigned to developing and validation cohorts. The whole-liver were manually segmented, and the radiomics signature was extracted. The tumor and liver radiomics score (TLrad-score) was calculated. Models were trained by machine learning algorithms and their predictive efficacies were compared.

RESULTS

Tumor stage, tumor burden, body mass index, alpha-fetoprotein, and vascular invasion were revealed as independent risk factors for survival. The model trained by Random Forest algorithms based on tumor burden, whole-liver radiomics signature, and clinical features had the highest predictive efficacy, with c-index values of 0.85 and 0.80 and areas under the ROC curve of 0.96 and 0.83 in the developing cohort and validation cohort, respectively. In the high-rad-score group (TLrad-score > - 0.34), the median overall survival (mOS) was significantly shorter than in the low-rad-score group (17 m vs. 37 m, p < 0.001). A shorter mOS was observed in patients with high tumor burden compared to those with low tumor burden (14 m vs. 29 m, p = 0.007).

CONCLUSION

The combined radiomics model from whole-liver signatures may effectively predict survival for HCC patients continuing TACE after TACE refractoriness. The TLrad-score and tumor burden are potential prognostic markers for TACE therapy following TACE-resistance.

The prognostic nutritional index as a predictor of efficacy and early recurrence for adjuvant transarterial chemoembolization in hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Postoperative adjuvant transcatheter arterial chemoembolization (TACE) can prevent recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in certain patients. This study aimed to identify the potential beneficiaries of adjuvant TACE.

METHODS

477 patients who underwent curative resection for HCC were enrolled in this retrospectively cohort study. The trajectory of the prognostic nutritional index (PNI) during the perioperative period was fitted using a latent-class growth mixed model. The association between adjuvant TACE and recurrence-free survival in each PNI group was assessed using the Kaplan-Meier curve. Furthermore, Cox regression analysis was conducted to identify the risk factors for early recurrence after adjuvant TACE and develop a nomogram model.

RESULTS

Patients in the PNI group III had a high risk of recurrence and could benefit from adjuvant TACE (P = 0.009). The prognostic prediction model for adjuvant TACE (PAT) incorporated eight variables (PNI, tumor size, tumor number, microvascular invasion, sex, aspartate aminotransferase, gamma-glutamyl transferase, and degree of differentiation). Patients with PAT score >330 and 235-330 had significantly higher recurrence rates than those with PAT score <235 (P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

PNI may help guide the selection of adjuvant TACE beneficiaries. PAT demonstrated a high accuracy in predicting the prognosis of patients who underwent postoperative TACE.

Construction of a prognostic model for hepatocellular carcinoma patients receiving transarterial chemoembolization treatment based on the Tumor Burden Score

BACKGROUND

Patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) who undergo transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) may have varied outcomes based on their liver function and tumor burden diversity. This study aims to assess the prognostic significance of the tumor burden score (TBS) in these patients and develop a prognostic model for their overall survival.

METHODS

The study involved a retrospective analysis of 644 newly diagnosed HCC patients undergoing TACE treatment. The individuals were assigned randomly to a training cohort (n = 452) and a validation cohort (n = 192). We utilized a multivariate Cox proportional risk model to identify independent preoperative predictive factors. We then evaluated model performance using the area under the curve (AUC), consistency index (c-index), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA) methods.

RESULTS

The multivariate analysis revealed four prognostic factors associated with overall survival: Tumor Burden Score, Tumor Extent, Types of portal vein invasion (PVI), and Child-Pugh score. The total score was calculated based on these factors. The model demonstrated strong discriminative ability with high AUC values and c-index, providing high net clinical benefits for patients. Based on the model's scoring results, patients were categorized into high, medium, and low-risk groups. These results were validated in the validation cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

The tumor burden score shows promise as a viable alternative prognostic indicator for assessing tumor burden in cases of HCC. The new prognostic model can place patients in one of three groups, which will estimate their individual outcomes. For high-risk patients, it is suggested to consider alternative treatment options or provide the best supportive care, as they may not benefit significantly from TACE treatment.

Identification of patients with favorable prognosis after resection in intermediate-stage-hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUNDS

It is unclear which patients benefit from resection in intermediate-stage-hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The authors aimed to identify high-risk patients for early recurrence among patients with resectable intermediate-stage HCC.

METHODS

This multicenter retrospective study included patients who underwent resection or trans-arterial chemoembolization (TACE) for intermediate-stage HCC (2008-2019). Multivariable Cox proportional analysis was performed to identify high-risk patients when treated with resection. A prediction score for 2-year recurrence-free survival (RFS) was developed using the training cohort and validated. The 2-year RFS in each risk group was compared with that in TACE group, after propensity score matching (PSM).

RESULTS

A total of 1686 patients were included (480 and 1206 patients in the resection and TACE groups). During a median follow-up of 31.4 months, the 2-year RFS was significantly higher in the resection (47.7%) than in the TACE group (19.8%) [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR)=1.471, 95% CI: 1.199-1.803, P <0.001). On multivariate analysis, alpha-fetoprotein ≥5.0 ng/ml (aHR=0.202), ALBI grade ≥2 (aHR=0.709), tumor number ≥3 (aHR=0.404), and maximal tumor size ≥5 cm (aHR=0.323) were significantly associated with the lower risk of 2-year RFS in the resection group. The newly developed Surgery Risk score in BCLC-B (SR-B score) with four significant risk factors showed an area under the curve of 0.801 for the 2-year RFS and was validated. Based on the SR-B score, low-risk patients had a significantly higher 2-year RFS (training: aHR=5.834; validation: aHR=5.675) than high-risk patients (all P <0.001) did. In a PSM cohort, a low-risk resection group had a significantly higher (aHR=3.891); a high-risk resection group had a comparable 2-year RFS to those treated with TACE (aHR=0.816).

CONCLUSIONS

Resection may be beneficial for resectable intermediate-stage HCC based on the SR-B score.

Evaluation of Multiple Liver Cancer Scoring Systems

Liver cancer is one of the most common malignant tumors in the world, and its incidence and mortality are increasing year by year. The prognosis of liver cancer depends on the stage of liver cancer, the treatment method, the liver function, and individual differences. The prognosis of liver cancer mainly worsens with the progression of the stage. The prediction and staging system of liver cancer prognosis plays a very important role in the outcome of liver cancer prognosis, providing some guidance for clinical practice and bringing benefits for patients. This article reports on the prediction models and staging systems that have been applied in the field of liver cancer in the past 5 years, objectively analyzes the advantages and disadvantages, applicable population of each model and staging system, and searches for other patient and clinical characteristics that need to be considered for successfully establishing a prediction model, aiming to improve the specificity, sensitivity, and accuracy of liver cancer prediction and increase the overall survival rate of liver cancer.

Transcatheter Arterial Chemoembolization for Treatment-Naive Hepatocellular Carcinoma Has Different Treatment Effects Depending on Central or Peripheral Tumor Location

Introduction

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the treatment efficacy of transcatheter arterial chemoembolization (TACE) for treatment-naive hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) according to tumor location and burden.

Methods

Between 2010 and 2019, consecutive patients who underwent TACE as the first treatment were enrolled. Tumors were classified into two categories based on their location, as central or peripheral tumors. Tumors in the central zone, which is within 1 cm of the main trunk or the first branch of the portal vein, were classified as central tumors, while those located in the peripheral zone were classified as peripheral tumors. Patients were grouped according to the HCC location and up-to-7 criteria. Patients with central tumors were classified into the central arm and those with only peripheral tumors were classified into the peripheral arm. Patients within and beyond the up-to-7 criteria were classified into the up-to-7 in and up-to-7 out-groups, respectively. Local recurrence-free survival (LRFS) and progression-free survival (PFS) were compared per nodule (central tumor vs. peripheral tumor) and per patient (central arm vs. peripheral arm), respectively. The prognostic factors of LRFS and PFS were analyzed by univariate and multivariate analyses.

Results

A total of 174 treatment-naive patients with 352 HCCs were retrospectively enrolled. Ninety-six patients and 130 lesions were selected by propensity score matching. Median LRFS was longer for peripheral tumors than central tumors (not reached vs. 3.3 months, p < 0.001). Median PFS was 17.1 months (8.3-24.9) in the peripheral arm and up-to-7 in, 7.0 months (3.3-12.7) in the peripheral arm and up-to-7 out, 8.4 months (4.0-12.6) in the central arm and up-to-7 in, and 3.0 months (1.2-4.9) in the central arm and up-to-7 out-groups. The peripheral arm and up-to-7 in-groups had significantly longer PFS than the other three groups (p = 0.013, p = 0.015, p < 0.001, respectively). Multivariate analysis confirmed that the central zone and central arm were associated with high adjusted hazard ratios for tumor recurrence or death (2.87, p < 0.001; 2.89, p < 0.001, respectively).

Conclusion

Treatment-naive HCCs in the peripheral zone had a longer LRFS and PFS following TACE compared to those in the central zone.

ASARA, a prediction model based on Child-Pugh class in hepatocellular carcinoma patients undergoing transarterial chemoembolization

BACKGROUND

Due to the high heterogeneity among hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients receiving transarterial chemoembolization (TACE), the prognosis of patients varies significantly. The decision-making on the initiation and/or repetition of TACE under different liver functions is a matter of concern in clinical practice. Thus, we aimed to develop a prediction model for TACE candidates using risk stratification based on varied liver function.

METHODS

A total of 222 unresectable HCC patients who underwent TACE as their only treatment were included in this study. Cox proportional hazards regression was performed to select the independent risk factors and establish a predictive model for the overall survival (OS). The model was validated in patients with different Child-Pugh class and compared to previous TACE scoring systems.

RESULTS

The five independent risk factors, including alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) level, maximal tumor size, the increase of albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade score, tumor response, and the increase of aspartate aminotransferase (AST), were used to build a prognostic model (ASARA). In the training and validation cohorts, the OS of patients with ASARA score ≤ 2 was significantly higher than that of patients with ASARA score > 2 (P < 0.001, P = 0.006, respectively). The ASARA model and its modified version "AS(ARA)" can effectively distinguish the OS (P < 0.001, P = 0.004) between patients with Child-Pugh class A and B, and the C-index was 0.687 and 0.706, respectively. For repeated TACE, the ASARA model was superior to Assessment for Retreatment with TACE (ART) and ALBI grade, maximal tumor size, AFP, and tumor response (ASAR) among Child-Pugh class A patients. For the first TACE, the performance of AS(ARA) was better than that of modified hepatoma arterial-embolization prognostic (mHAP), mHAP3, and ASA(R) models among Child-Pugh class B patients.

CONCLUSIONS

The ASARA scoring system is valuable in the decision-making of TACE repetition for HCC patients, especially Child-Pugh class A patients. The modified AS(ARA) can be used to screen the ideal candidate for TACE initiation in Child-Pugh class B patients with poor liver function.

Surgical Treatment of Hepatocellular Carcinoma: Multicenter Competing-risk Analysis of Tumor-related Death Following Liver Resection and Transplantation Under an Intention-to-treat Perspective

BACKGROUND

Early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma could benefit from upfront liver resection (LR) or liver transplantation (LT), but the optimal strategy in terms of tumor-related outcomes is still debated. We compared the oncological outcomes of LR and LT for hepatocellular carcinoma, stratifying the study population into a low-, intermediate-, and high-risk class according to the risk of death at 5-y predicted by a previously developed prognostic model. The impact of tumor pathology on oncological outcomes of low- and intermediate-risk patients undergoing LR was investigated as a secondary outcome.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective multicentric cohort study involving 2640 patients consecutively treated by LR or LT from 4 tertiary hepatobiliary and transplant centers between 2005 and 2015, focusing on patients amenable to both treatments upfront. Tumor-related survival and overall survival were compared under an intention-to-treat perspective.

RESULTS

We identified 468 LR and 579 LT candidates: 512 LT candidates underwent LT, whereas 68 (11.7%) dropped-out for tumor progression. Ninety-nine high-risk patients were selected from each treatment cohort after propensity score matching. Three and 5-y cumulative incidence of tumor-related death were 29.7% and 39.5% versus 17.2% and 18.3% for LR and LT group ( P = 0.039), respectively. Low-risk and intermediate-risk patients treated by LR and presenting satellite nodules and microvascular invasion had a significantly higher 5-y incidence of tumor-related death (29.2% versus 12.5%; P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

High-risk patients showed significantly better intention-to-treat tumor-related survival after upfront LT rather than LR. Cancer-specific survival of low- and intermediate-risk LR patients was significantly impaired by unfavorable pathology, suggesting the application of ab-initio salvage LT in such scenarios.

Recommendation of mHAP and ABCR scoring systems for the decision-making of the first and subsequent TACE session in HCC patients

BACKGROUND

Due to the high heterogeneity among hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients receiving transarterial chemoembolization (TACE), the prognosis of patients varies significantly. Various predictive scoring systems have been developed to identify the patients who could benefit from TACE. However, there is no consensus on which is better. This study aims to validate and compare the predictive capabilities of scoring systems for first and subsequent TACE.

MATERIALS

A total of 524 HCC patients were treated with TACE, and 222 patients who met the inclusion criteria were included. Log-rank test was used to verify the predictive value of six scoring systems for the first TACE and four TACE retreatment scoring systems. Harrell's concordance (C)-index, likelihood ratio and integrated Brier score (IBS) were used to compare the predictive performance.

RESULTS

For the scoring systems of TACE, the overall survival (OS) of candidates screened by Hepatoma Arterial-embolization Prognostic (HAP), modified HAP (mHAP), mHAP3, alpha-fetoprotein, Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer, Child-Pugh and Response (ABCR), albumin-bilirubin grade (ALBI), tumor size, alpha-fetoprotein, first TACE response and pre-/post-TACE was significantly longer than that of the noncandidates (all P < 0.05), whereas the mHAP2 and assessment for retreatment with TACE did not distinguish the candidates from noncandidates (P = 0.206, 0.115, respectively). The predictive and calibration performances of mHAP and ABCR were the highest for the first TACE and TACE retreatment, respectively.

CONCLUSION

mHAP identifies the patients who could benefit from the first TACE, whereas ABCR distinguishes patients who could benefit from subsequent TACE sessions.

Identifying optimal candidates for post-TIPS patients with HCC undergoing TACE: a multicenter observational study

OBJECTIVE

To develop a prognostic model for post-transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) beyond the Milan criteria treated by transarterial chemoembolization (TACE).

DESIGN

Between January 2013 and January 2020, 512 patients with HCC beyond the Milan criteria who underwent TACE after TIPS were retrospectively recruited from 15 tertiary centers. Patients were randomly sorted into a training set (n = 382) and a validation set (n = 130). Medical data and overall survival were assessed. A prediction model was developed using multivariate Cox regression analyses. Predictive performance and discrimination were evaluated and compared with other prognostic models.

RESULTS

Vascular invasion, log₁₀(AFP), 1/creatinine, extrahepatic spread, and log₁₀(ALT) were the most significant prognostic factors of survival. These five parameters were included in a new VACEA score. This score was able to stratify patients in the training set into four distinct risk grades whose median overall survival were 25.2, 15.1, 8.9, and 6.2 months, respectively. The 6-month, 1-year, 2-year, and 3-year AUROC values and C-index of the VACEA model were 0.819, 0.806, 0.779, 0.825, and 0.735, respectively, and higher than those of other seven currently available models in both the training and validation sets, as well as in different subgroups.

CONCLUSION

The VACEA score could stratify post-TIPS patients with HCC beyond the Milan criteria treated by TACE and help to identify candidates who benefit from this treatment.

KEY POINTS

• Vascular invasion, AFP, creatinine, extrahepatic spread, and ALT were independent significant prognostic factors of survival for HCC patients who underwent TACE after TIPS. • Our new model, named VACEA score, can accurately predict prognosis at the individual level and stratify patients into four distinct risk grades. • The VACEA model showed better prognostic discrimination and calibration than other current TACE-/TIPS-specific models Graphical abstract.

Identify optimal HAP series scores for unresectable HCC patients undergoing TACE plus sorafenib: A Chinese multicenter observational study

Background

Hepatoma arterial-embolization prognostic (HAP) series scores have been proposed for prognostic prediction in patients with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (uHCC) undergoing transarterial chemoembolization (TACE). However, their prognostic value in TACE plus sorafenib (TACE-S) remains unknown. Here, we aim to evaluate their prognostic performance in such conditions and identify the best model for this combination therapy.

Methods

Between January 2012 and December 2018, consecutive patients with uHCC receiving TACE-S were recruited from 15 tertiary hospitals in China. Cox regression analyses were used to investigate the prognostic values of baseline factors and every scoring system. Their prognostic performance and discriminatory performance were evaluated and confirmed in subgroup analyses.

Results

A total of 404 patients were enrolled. In the whole cohort, the median follow-up period was 44.2 (interquartile range (IQR), 33.2-60.7) months, the median overall survival (OS) time was 13.2 months, and 336 (83.2%) patients died at the end of the follow-up period. According to multivariate analyses, HAP series scores were independent prognostic indicators of OS. In addition, the C-index, Akaike information criterion (AIC) values, and time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) indicated that modified HAP (mHAP)-III had the best predictive performance. Furthermore, the results remained consistent in most subsets of patients.

Conclusion

HAP series scores exhibited good predictive ability in uHCC patients accepting TACE-S, and the mHAP-III score was found to be superior to the other HAP series scores in predicting OS. Future prospective high-quality studies should be conducted to confirm our results and help with treatment decision-making.

Local and Regional Therapies for Hepatocellular Carcinoma and Future Combinations

Simple Summary

Percutaneous interventional radiological techniques offer many alternatives for treatment of Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC) using local anesthesia and sedation. These methods aim to destroy the malignant tumors locally without affecting the non-malignant liver. In this way, complications are kept low and patient recovery is quick. Indications depend on tumor size, type and stage, as well as patient’s condition, liver function and co-morbidities. In recent years, a lot of research has been made in combining such approaches with immune therapy, but there is still much work to be done. This manuscript tries to analyze where we stand today and explain, using a comprehensive algorithm, the treatment options for each different clinical condition.

Abstract

Background: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) can be treated by local and regional methods of percutaneous interventional radiological techniques. Indications depend on tumor size, type and stage, as well as patient’s condition, liver function and co-morbidities. According to international classification systems such as Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) classification, very early, early or intermediate staged tumors can be treated either with ablative methods or with transarterial chemoembolization (TACE), depending on tumor characteristics. The combination of both allows for individualized forms of treatment with the ultimate goal of improving response and survival. In recent years, a lot of research has been carried out in combining locoregional approaches with immune therapy. Although recent developments in systemic treatment, especially immunotherapy, seem quite promising and have expanded possible combined treatment options, there is still not enough evidence in their favor. The aim of this review is to provide a comprehensive up-to-date overview of all these techniques, explaining indications, contraindications, technical problems, outcomes, results and complications. Moreover, combinations of percutaneous treatment with each other or with immunotherapy and future options will be discussed. Use of all those methods as down-staging or bridging solutions until surgery or transplantation are taken into consideration will also be reviewed. Conclusion: Local and regional therapies remain a mainstay of curative and palliative treatment of patients with HCC. Currently, evidence on potential combination of the local and regional treatment options with each other as well as with other treatment modalities is growing and has the potential to further individualize HCC therapy. To identify the most suitable treatment option out of these new various options, a repeated interdisciplinary discussion of each case by the tumor board is of utmost importance.

Hepatitis B Virus-Associated Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) is DNA-based virus, member of the Hepadnaviridae family, which can cause liver disease and increased risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in infected individuals, replicating within the hepatocytes and interacting with several cellular proteins. Chronic hepatitis B can progressively lead to liver cirrhosis, which is an independent risk factor for HCC. Complications as liver decompensation or HCC impact the survival of HBV patients and concurrent HDV infection worsens the disease. The available data provide evidence that HBV infection is associated with the risk of developing HCC with or without an underlying liver cirrhosis, due to various direct and indirect mechanisms promoting hepatocarcinogenesis. The molecular profile of HBV-HCC is extensively and continuously under study, and it is the result of altered molecular pathways, which modify the microenvironment and lead to DNA damage. HBV produces the protein HBx, which has a central role in the oncogenetic process. Furthermore, the molecular profile of HBV-HCC was recently discerned from that of HDV-HCC, despite the obligatory dependence of HDV on HBV. Proper management of the underlying HBV-related liver disease is fundamental, including HCC surveillance, viral suppression, and application of adequate predictive models. When HBV-HCC occurs, liver function and HCC characteristics guide the physician among treatment strategies but always considering the viral etiology in the treatment choice.

The importance of liver functional reserve in the non-surgical treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma

The aim of any oncological treatment is not just to eliminate the tumour, but to maximise patient survival and quality of life. Since the liver has a vital function, any radical treatment that severely compromises liver function will result in a shortening of life expectancy, rather than a prolongation. Furthermore, even non-severe liver damage may prevent the delivery of further effective therapies. This is particularly important in the case of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), as it is associated with underlying cirrhosis in most patients - cirrhosis itself is not only a potentially lethal disease and independent prognostic factor in HCC, but it also makes liver function fragile. Accordingly, some information about liver dysfunction is included in most staging systems for HCC and can be used to guide the selection of treatments that the functional liver reserve can tolerate. Unfortunately, the prediction of functional damage to the liver in the case of antitumor treatments is very challenging and still suboptimal in any given patient. Moreover, while the assessment of functional reserve can now be used to avoid postoperative liver failure in the surgical setting, its use has been less well clarified for non-surgical therapies, which is of particular relevance today, as several lines of effective non-surgical treatments, including systemic therapies, have become available. The present article will a) critically review the implications of the assessment of liver functional reserve in patients with HCC, b) illustrate the available tools to assess liver functional reserve and c) discuss the role of functional assessment for each type of non-surgical therapy for HCC.

A 10-Gene Signature Identified by Machine Learning for Predicting the Response to Transarterial Chemoembolization in Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Background

Transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) is recommended for intermediate-stage HCC patients. Owing to substantial variation in its efficacy, indicators of patient responses to TACE need to be determined.

Methods

A Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) dataset consisting of patients of different TACE-response status was retrieved. Differentially expressed genes (DEGs) were calculated and variable gene ontology analyses were conducted. Potential drugs and response to immunotherapy were predicted using multiple bioinformatic algorithms. We built and compared 5 machine-learning models with finite genes to predict patients' response to TACE. The model was also externally validated to discern different survival outcomes after TACE. Tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs) and tumor stemness index were evaluated to explore potential mechanism of our model.

Results

The gene set variation analysis revealed enhanced pathways related to G2/M checkpoint, E2F, mTORC1, and myc in TACE nonresponders. TACE responders had better immunotherapy response too. 373 DEGs were detected and the upregulated DEGs in nonresponders were enriched in IL-17 signal pathway. 5 machine-learning models were constructed and evaluated, and a linear support vector machine (SVM)-based model with 10 genes was selected (AQP1, FABP4, HERC6, LOX, PEG10, S100A8, SPARCL1, TIAM1, TSPAN8, and TYRO3). The model achieved an AUC and accuracy of 0.944 and 0.844, respectively, in the development cohort. In the external validation cohort comprised of patients receiving adjuvant TACE and postrecurrence TACE treatment, the predicted response group significantly outlived the predicted nonresponse counterparts. TACE nonresponders tend to have more macrophage M0 cells and lower resting mast cells in the tumor tissue and the stemness index is also higher than responders. Those characteristics were successfully captured by our model.

Conclusion

The model based on expression data of 10 genes could potentially predict HCC patients' response and prognosis after TACE treatment. The discriminating power was TACE-specific.

Development of a Prognostic Nomogram in Hepatocellular Carcinoma with Portal Vein Tumor Thrombus Following Trans-Arterial Chemoembolization with Drug-Eluting Beads

Objective

To develop and validate a prognostic nomogram in eastern patients with hepatitis B virus (HBV)-associated hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and portal vein tumor thrombus (PVTT) receiving trans-arterial chemoembolization with drug-eluting beads (DEB-TACE).

Methods

This retrospective study included 200 patients with training cohort (n = 118) from institution 1 and test cohort (n = 82) from institution 2. All these patients received first-line DEB-TACE between October 2016 and October 2018. Multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression analysis was performed on the training cohort to reveal the independent prognostic factors, and then prognostic nomograms were developed. In order to evaluate the performance of the nomogram comprehensively in both the training and test cohorts, C-index, Kaplan–Meier curve with Log rank test, receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC), calibration plot, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were performed.

Results

Tumor number, serum γ-glutamyl transferase (GGT) level, and level of PVTT were independent risk factors of prognosis. A nomogram was constructed to predict 6-, 12- and 18-month overall survival (OS) based on these identified prognostic factors. C-indexes of the nomogram were 0.88 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.79–0.97) in the training cohort and 0.87 (95% CI, 0.75–0.99) in the test cohort. The Kaplan–Meier curve analysis showed that the nomogram was able to separate patients into low- and high-risk subgroups. ROC curves for the nomogram at 6-, 12- and 18-month showed satisfied discrimination, with an AUC of 0.765, 0.803 and 0.809 in the training cohort, respectively, and 0.772, 0.724 and 0.746 in the test cohort, respectively. The calibration curve demonstrated good agreement between predicted and actual survival rates in the training and test cohorts. The decision curve showed good performance of the nomogram in terms of clinical application.

Conclusion

We developed and validated a nomogram that was accurate and clinically useful in eastern patients with HBV-associated HCC with PVTT who underwent DEB-TACE.

Prediction of Early Treatment Response to Initial Conventional Transarterial Chemoembolization Therapy for Hepatocellular Carcinoma by Machine-Learning Model Based on Computed Tomography

Purpose

The treatment response to initial conventional transarterial chemoembolization (cTACE) is essential for the prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This study explored and verified the feasibility of machine-learning models based on clinical data and contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CT) image findings to predict early responses of HCC patients after initial cTACE treatment.

Patients and Methods

Overall, 110 consecutive unresectable HCC patients who were treated with cTACE for the first time were retrospectively enrolled. Clinical data and imaging features based on contrast-enhanced CT were collected for the selection of characteristics. Treatment responses were evaluated based on the modified Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (mRECIST) by postoperative CT examination within 2 months after the procedure. Python (version 3.70) was used to develop machine learning models. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) algorithm was applied to select features with the impact on predicting treatment response after the first TACE procedure. Six machine learning algorithms were used to build predictive models, including XGBoost, decision tree, support vector machine, random forest, k-nearest neighbor, and fully convolutional networks, and their performances were compared using receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves to determine the best performing model.

Results

Following TACE, 31 patients (28.2%) were described as responsive to TACE, while 72 patients (71.8%) were nonresponsive to TACE. Portal vein tumor thrombosis type, albumin level, and distribution of tumors within the liver were selected for predictive model building. Among the models, the RF model showed the best performance, with area under the curve (AUC), accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity of 0.802, 0.784, 0.904, and 0.480, respectively.

Conclusion

Machine learning models can provide an accurate prediction of the early response of initial TACE treatment for HCC, which can help in individualizing clinical decision-making and modification of further treatment strategies for patients with unresectable HCC.

Expected outcomes and patients’ selection before chemoembolization—“Six-and-Twelve or Pre-TACE-Predict” scores may help clinicians: Real-life French cohorts results

BACKGROUND

Careful selection of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients prior to chemoembolization treatment is a daily reality, and is even more necessary with new available therapeutic options in HCC.

AIM

To propose two new models to better stratify patients and maximize clinical benefit: “6 and 12” and “pre/post-TACE-predict” (TACE, transarterial chemoembolization).

METHODS

We evaluated and compared their performance in predicting overall survival with other systems {Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC), Albumin-Bilirubin (ALBI) and NIACE [Number of tumor(s), Infiltrative HCC, alpha-fetoprotein, Child-Pugh (CP), and performance status]} in two HCC French cohorts of different stages enrolled between 2010 and 2018.

RESULTS

The cohorts included 324 patients classified as BCLC stages A/B (cohort 1) and 137 patients classified as BCLC stages B/C (cohort 2). The majority of the patients had cirrhosis with preserved liver function. “Pre-TACE-predict” and “6 and 12” models identified three distinct categories of patients exhibiting different prognosis in cohort 1. However, their prognostic value was no better than the BCLC system or NIACE score. Liver function based on CP and ALBI grades significantly impacted patient survival. Conversely, the “post-TACE-predict” model had a higher predictive value than other models. The stratification ability as well as predictive performance of these new models in an intermediate/advanced stage population was less efficient (cohort 2).

CONCLUSION

The newly proposed “Pre-TACE-predict” and “6 and 12” models offer an interesting stratification into three categories in a recommended TACE population, as they identify poor candidates, those with partial control and durable response. The models' contribution was reduced in a population with advanced stage HCCs.

A radiomics nomogram for predicting transcatheter arterial chemoembolization refractoriness of hepatocellular carcinoma without extrahepatic metastasis or macrovascular invasion

OBJECTIVE

A radiomics nomogram for pretreatment prediction of TACE refractoriness was developed and validated for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) without extrahepatic metastasis or macrovascular invasion.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This study included 80 patients with HCC without extrahepatic metastasis or macrovascular involvement treated with TACE between July 2016 and November 2018. The datasets were divided into a training set (80%) and a test set (20%) for feature selection and tenfold cross-validation. Forty radiomic features were extracted from arterial-phase computed tomography (CT) using the Local Image Features Extraction software. The Lasso regression model was used for radiomics signature selection. The Lasso regression model was used for radiomics signature selection and the selected signatures were validated using the Mann-Whitney U-test. The radiomics nomogram was developed based on a multivariate logistic regression model incorporating the Rad-score, CT imaging factors, and clinical factors, and it was validated.

RESULTS

The Rad-score, which consists of the Gray-Level Zone Length Matrix (GLZLM)-Long-Zone Low Gray-Level Emphasis (LZLGE) and GLZLM-Gray-Level Non-Uniformity (GLNU), T-stage, log α-fetoprotein (AFP), and bilobar distribution were significantly associated with TACE refractoriness (p < 0.05). Predictors in the radiomics nomogram were the Rad-score and T-stage (Rad-score + T-stage), Rad-score and bilobar distribution (Rad-score + bilobar distribution), or Rad-score and logAFP (Rad-score + logAFP). The multivariate logistic regression model showed a good predictive performance (Rad-score + T-stage, AUC, 0.95; Rad-score + bilobar distribution, AUC 0.91; and Rad-score + logAFP, AUC, 0.91).

CONCLUSION

The radiomics nomogram could be used for the pretreatment prediction of TACE refractoriness.

Current Strategies to Identify Patients That Will Benefit from TACE Treatment and Future Directions a Practical Step-by-Step Guide

Treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) depends on the stage of disease. In the Western Hemisphere, the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer classification (BCLC) is the preferred staging system. Approximately one-third of patients initially present with intermediate-stage disease. For these patients, transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) is the treatment of choice. However, the intermediate-stage comprises a heterogeneous subgroup of patients with considerable differences in tumor burden and liver function. In addition, differences in individual factors that are not captured by the BCLC framework, such as the tumor growth pattern, degree of hypervascularity, and vascular supply, complicate further evaluation of these patients. Due to these differences, not all patients benefit equally from TACE. Several tools and scoring systems have been devised to provide decision-making support. All of these have shown promising initial results but failed external evaluation and have not been translated to the clinic. Nevertheless, criteria for objectifying treatment decisions in daily clinical practice are needed in all stages of disease. Therefore, this review provides a concise practical step-by-step guide on current strategies for patient selection and decision-making, with a focus on TACE, to critically evaluate the existing decision-support tools and provide a summary of the latest updates in the field.

Advances in systemic therapy for the first-line treatment of unresectable HCC

Introduction: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the most common and deadliest cancers worldwide. In recent years, several drugs have been approved in first- and second-line setting. Currently, several phase-III trials are ongoing with combinations of checkpoint inhibitors, tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKI) and anti-angiogenic antibodies, which will most likely increase therapeutic options in frontline therapy in the near future.Areas covered: This review summarizes the standard of care in first-line systemic therapy for patients with advanced HCC and provides an outlook on the most promising combinations currently tested in prospective trials.Expert opinion: The recent approval of novel substances has substantially changed the field of palliative treatment strategies in patients with advanced HCC. Immuno-oncology (IO)-based combination therapies will become the next standard of care in frontline HCC. The potent anti-tumor efficacy and good tolerability of these therapies will increase the use of upfront systemic therapy in patients with intermediate stage HCC.

Time-Varying mHAP-III Is the Most Accurate Predictor of Survival in Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma Undergoing Transarterial Chemoembolization

INTRODUCTION

The prognosis of patients undergoing transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) is extremely variable, and a confounding factor is that TACE is often repeated several times. We retrospectively evaluated the accuracy of different prognostic scores and staging systems in estimating overall survival (OS) in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

METHODS

An analysis considering prognostic models as time-varying variables was performed, calculating OS from the time of TACE to the time of the subsequent treatment. Total follow-up time for each patient was therefore split into several observation times accounting for each TACE procedure. Values of the likelihood ratio test (LRT) and Akaike information criterion (AIC) were used to compare different systems. Univariable and multivariable analyses were conducted to identify additional factors predictive of OS. We analyzed 1,610 TACE performed in 1,058 patients recorded in the Italian Liver Cancer database from 2008 through 2016.

RESULTS

The median OS of the enrolled patients was 41 months. According to LRT χ² and AIC values based on the time-varying analysis, mHAP-III achieved the best values (41.72 and 4,625.49, respectively, p < 0.0001), indicating the highest predictive performance compared with all other scores (HAP, mHAP-II, ALBI, and pALBI) and staging systems (MELD, ITALICA, CLIP, MESH, MESIAH, JIS, HKLC, and BCLC). In the multivariable Cox proportional hazards model, mHAP-III maintained an independent effect on OS (hazard ratio 1.31, 95% CI: 1.10-1.55, p < 0.0001). Time-varying age, alcoholic etiology, radiologic response to TACE, and performing ablation or surgery after TACE were additional significant variables resulting from the multivariable model.

CONCLUSION

An innovative time-varying analysis revealed that mHAP-III was the most accurate model in predicting OS in patients with HCC undergoing TACE. Other clinical pre- and post-TACE variables were also found to be relevant for this prediction.

The "Six-and-Twelve" Score for Recurrent HCC Patients Receiving TACE: Does it Still Work?

BACKGROUND

A new prognostic model, the "six-and-twelve" (SAT) score, was suggested to be effective in selecting ideal transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) candidates from treatment naïve hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients. However, whether the SAT score could also be applied in recurrent HCC patients with prior curative-intent treatments remains unknown. We aimed to validate and compare SAT focussing on these patients.

METHODS

From January 2014 to May 2019, 121 unresectable HCC patients with recurrence in Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) A/B receiving TACE were enrolled. Survival distribution was evaluated by the Kaplan-Meier method compared by the log-rank test. Discriminatory ability was compared with the concordance index (C-index) to rank six prognostic systems (SAT, Four-and-seven, HAP, mHAP, mHAP2, mHAP3). The area under the curve (AUC) was performed to assess the mortality prediction at 1, 2, and 3 years.

RESULTS

In recurrent HCC patients receiving TACE, SAT had better performances in survival distribution. Due to the highest C-index, SAT was deemed the first ranking prognostic score. In terms of mortality prediction at 1, 2 and 3 years, SAT had the best mortality prediction at 2 and 3 years and mHAP3 had the best mortality prediction at 1 year.

CONCLUSIONS

Among the six prognostic systems analysed in ideal TACE patients with recurrences after curative-intent treatments, SAT was proven to be superior to other systems, suggesting that it could also be used in these patients.

Clinical-Radiomic Analysis for Pretreatment Prediction of Objective Response to First Transarterial Chemoembolization in Hepatocellular Carcinoma

BACKGROUND

The preoperative selection of patients with intermediate-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) who are likely to have an objective response to first transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) remains challenging.

OBJECTIVE

To develop and validate a clinical-radiomic model (CR model) for preoperatively predicting treatment response to first TACE in patients with intermediate-stage HCC.

METHODS

A total of 595 patients with intermediate-stage HCC were included in this retrospective study. A tumoral and peritumoral (10 mm) radiomic signature (TPR-signature) was constructed based on 3,404 radiomic features from 4 regions of interest. A predictive CR model based on TPR-signature and clinical factors was developed using multivariate logistic regression. Calibration curves and area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) were used to evaluate the model's performance.

RESULTS

The final CR model consisted of 5 independent predictors, including TPR-signature (p < 0.001), AFP (p = 0.004), Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer System Stage B (BCLC B) subclassification (p = 0.01), tumor location (p = 0.039), and arterial hyperenhancement (p = 0.050). The internal and external validation results demonstrated the high-performance level of this model, with internal and external AUCs of 0.94 and 0.90, respectively. In addition, the predicted objective response via the CR model was associated with improved survival in the external validation cohort (hazard ratio: 2.43; 95% confidence interval: 1.60-3.69; p < 0.001). The predicted treatment response also allowed for significant discrimination between the Kaplan-Meier curves of each BCLC B subclassification.

CONCLUSIONS

The CR model had an excellent performance in predicting the first TACE response in patients with intermediate-stage HCC and could provide a robust predictive tool to assist with the selection of patients for TACE.

Management of patients with intermediate stage hepatocellular carcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) causes a significant health burden globally and its impact is expected to increase in the coming years. Intermediate stage HCC, as defined by the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) system stage B, represents up to 30% of patients at diagnosis and encompasses a broad spectrum of tumor burden. Several attempts have been made to further subclassify this heterogenous group. The current standard of care recommended by BCLC for intermediate stage HCC patients is transarterial chemoembolization (TACE), with modest outcomes reported. While refinements have been made to TACE technique and patient selection, it remains non-curative. In the real-world setting, only 60% of patients with intermediate stage HCC receive TACE, with the remainder deviating to a range of other therapies that have shown promise in select patient subgroups. These include curative treatments (resection, ablation, and liver transplantation), radiotherapy (stereotactic and radioembolization), systemic therapies, and their combination. In this review, we summarize the classifications and current management for patients with intermediate stage HCC as well as highlight recent key developments in this space.

Recent Updates of Transarterial Chemoembolilzation in Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) is a standard treatment for intermediate-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). In this review, we summarize recent updates on the use of TACE for HCC. TACE can be performed using two techniques; conventional TACE (cTACE) and drug-eluting beads using TACE (DEB-TACE). The anti-tumor effect of the two has been reported to be similar; however, DEB-TACE carries a higher risk of hepatic artery and biliary injuries and a relatively lower risk of post-procedural pain than cTACE. TACE can be used for early stage HCC if other curative treatments are not feasible or as a neoadjuvant treatment before liver transplantation. TACE can also be considered for selected patients with limited portal vein thrombosis and preserved liver function. When deciding to repeat TACE, the ART (Assessment for Retreatment with TACE) score and ABCR (AFP, BCLC, Child-Pugh, and Response) score can guide the decision process, and TACE refractoriness needs to be considered. Studies on the combination therapy of TACE with other treatment modalities, such as local ablation, radiation therapy, or systemic therapy, have been actively conducted and are still ongoing. Recently, new prognostic models, including analysis of the neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio, radiomics, and deep learning, have been developed to help predict survival after TACE.

“Six-and-twelve” score for outcome prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma following transarterial chemoembolization. In-depth analysis from a multicenter French cohort

The “six-and-twelve” (6&12) score is a new hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) prognostic index designed for recommended transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) candidates. Quick and easy to use by the sum of tumor size (cm) and number, this model identifies three groups with different survival time (the sum is ≤ 6; or > 6 but ≤ 12; or > 12); a survival benefit with TACE can be expected for HCC patients with a score not exceeding twelve. Recently, Wang ZW et al showed that the “6&12” model was the best system correlated with radiological response after the first TACE. Thus, we wanted to assess its survival prediction ability as well as its prognostic value and compared it to other systems (Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer, Hong Kong Liver Cancer (HKLC) staging, Albumin-Bilirubin grade, tumor nodularity, infiltrative nature of the tumor, alpha-fetoprotein, Child-Pugh class, and Performance Status score, Cancer of the Liver Italian Program, Model to Estimate Survival for HCC scores, up-to-seven criteria) different from Wang ZW et al study in a multicenter French cohort of HCC including only recommended TACE candidates retrospectively enrolled. As previously demonstrated, we show that the "6&12” score can classify survival within this French cohort, with a prognostic value comparable to that of other systems, except HKLC staging. More importantly, the “6&12” score simplicity and ability in patients’ stratification outperform other systems for a routine clinical practice.

Radiomics Analysis on Multiphase Contrast-Enhanced CT: A Survival Prediction Tool in Patients With Hepatocellular Carcinoma Undergoing Transarterial Chemoembolization

Patients with HCC receiving TACE have various clinical outcomes. Several prognostic models have been proposed to predict clinical outcomes for patients with hepatocellular carcinomas (HCC) undergoing transarterial chemoembolization (TACE), but establishing an accurate prognostic model remains necessary. We aimed to develop a radiomics signature from pretreatment CT to establish a combined radiomics-clinic (CRC) model to predict survival for these patients. We compared this CRC model to the existing prognostic models in predicting patient survival. This retrospective study included multicenter data from 162 treatment-naïve patients with unresectable HCC undergoing TACE as an initial treatment from January 2007 and March 2017. We randomly allocated patients to a training cohort (n = 108) and a testing cohort (n = 54). Radiomics features were extracted from intra- and peritumoral regions on both the arterial phase and portal venous phase CT images. A radiomics signature (Rad-signature) for survival was constructed using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator method in the training cohort. We used univariate and multivariate Cox regressions to identify associations between the Rad- signature and clinical factors of survival. From these, a CRC model was developed, validated, and further compared with previously published prognostic models including four-and-seven criteria, six-and-twelve score, hepatoma arterial-embolization prognostic scores, and albumin-bilirubin grade. The CRC model incorporated two variables: The Rad-signature (composed of features extracted from intra- and peritumoral regions on the arterial phase and portal venous phase) and tumor number. The CRC model performed better than the other seven well-recognized prognostic models, with concordance indices of 0.73 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.68–0.79] and 0.70 [95% CI 0.62–0.82] in the training and testing cohorts, respectively. Among the seven models tested, the six-and-12 score and four-and-seven criteria performed better than the other models, with C-indices of 0.64 [95% CI 0.58–0.70] and 0.65 [95% CI 0.55–0.75] in the testing cohort, respectively. The CT radiomics signature represents an independent biomarker of survival in patients with HCC undergoing TACE, and the CRC model displayed improved predictive performance.

Prediction of Survival Among Patients Receiving Transarterial Chemoembolization for Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Response-Based Approach

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The heterogeneity of intermediate-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and the widespread use of transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) outside recommended guidelines have encouraged the development of scoring systems that predict patient survival. The aim of this study was to build and validate statistical models that offer individualized patient survival prediction using response to TACE as a variable.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

Clinically relevant baseline parameters were collected for 4,621 patients with HCC treated with TACE at 19 centers in 11 countries. In some of the centers, radiological responses (as assessed by modified Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors [mRECIST]) were also accrued. The data set was divided into a training set, an internal validation set, and two external validation sets. A pre-TACE model ("Pre-TACE-Predict") and a post-TACE model ("Post-TACE-Predict") that included response were built. The performance of the models in predicting overall survival (OS) was compared with existing ones. The median OS was 19.9 months. The factors influencing survival were tumor number and size, alpha-fetoprotein, albumin, bilirubin, vascular invasion, cause, and response as assessed by mRECIST. The proposed models showed superior predictive accuracy compared with existing models (the hepatoma arterial embolization prognostic score and its various modifications) and allowed for patient stratification into four distinct risk categories whose median OS ranged from 7 months to more than 4 years.

CONCLUSIONS

A TACE-specific and extensively validated model based on routinely available clinical features and response after first TACE permitted patient-level prognostication.

A Novel Pre-treatment Model Predicting Risk of Developing Refractoriness to Transarterial Chemoembolization in Unresectable Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Background and aim: Refractoriness to transarterial chemoembolization is common during the therapeutic process of hepatocellular carcinoma, which is an intractable issue and may compromise the prognosis. We aim to establish a pre-treatment model to identify patients with high risks of refractoriness.

Methods: From 2010 to 2016, 824 treatment-naive patients who had initially underwent at least two sessions of transarterial chemoembolization in Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University were retrospectively enrolled. These patients were randomly allocated into a training cohort and a validation cohort. The pre-treatment scoring model was established based on the clinical and radiological variables using logistic regression and nomogram. The discrimination and calibration of the model were also evaluated.

Results: Logistic regression identified vascularization pattern, ALBI grade, serum alpha-fetoprotein level, serum γ-glutamyl transpeptidase level and major tumor size as the key parameters related to refractoriness. The p-TACE model was established using these variables (risk score range: 0-19.5). Patients were divided into six risk subgroups based on their scores (<4, ≥4, ≥7, ≥10, ≥13, ≥16). The discriminative ability, as determined by the area under receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.784 (95% confidence interval: 0.741-0.827) in the training cohort and 0.743 (95% confidence interval: 0.696-0.789) in the validation cohort. Moreover, satisfactory calibration was confirmed by Hosmer-Lemeshow test with P values of 0.767 and 0.913 in the training cohort and validation cohort.

Conclusions: This study presents a pre-treatment model to identify patients with high risks of refractoriness after transarterial chemoembolization and shed light on clinical decision making.

Predictive performance of the mHAP-II score in a real-life western cohort with hepatocellular carcinoma following trans-arterial chemoembolisation with drug-eluting beads (DEB-TACE)

Objectives

To evaluate the predictive performance of the modified hepatoma arterial embolisation prognostic II (mHAP-II) score in a real-life western hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) cohort treated with drug-eluting bead-TACE and compare the mHAP-II with other scores in this cohort.

Methods

One hundred seventy-nine HCC patients (mean age 77 (± 9) years, 87% male) with one or more drug-eluting bead (DEB)-TACE sessions using 100–300 μm microspheres were retrospectively analysed. Performance analysis of the mHAP-II score was based on Mann-Whitney U tests, the Kaplan-Meier method, log-rank tests, receiver operating characteristics, Akaike’s information criterion and Cox regression models.

Results

In this population, HCC risk factors were mainly alcohol abuse (31%) and hepatitis C (28%). The median survival of the entire cohort was 29.4 months. mHAP-II classification of the cohort was mHAP-II B (30%), C (41%) and D (23%) respectively. Survival of all subgroups differed significantly from each other (each p < 0.05). Area under the curve for receiver operating characteristic was 0.60 and Akaike’s information criterion was 21.8 (p = 0.03), indicating a superior performance of mHAP-II score compared with HAP score and BCLC. Tumour number ≥ two (HR 1.54), alpha-fetoprotein > 400 μg/l (HR 1.14), serum albumin < 3.6 g/dl (HR 1.63) and total bilirubin > 0.9 mg/dl (HR 1.58) contributed significantly in Cox proportional hazards regression (each p < 0.05).

Conclusion

The mHAP-II score can predict survival outcomes of western HCC patients undergoing DEB-TACE and further subdivide this heterogeneous group; however, certain limitations concerning the predictive power of mHAP-II score must be taken into account.

Key Points

• This retrospective study evaluated the predictive performance of the modified hepatoma arterial embolisation prognostic II (mHAP-II) score in a real-life western HCC cohort treated with drug-eluting bead-TACE.

• Survival of all mHAP-II subgroups differed significantly, area under the curve for mHAP-II was 0.60 and Akaike’s information criterion was 21.8.

• The mHAP-II score can predict survival outcomes of western HCC patients undergoing DEB-TACE and further subdivide this heterogeneous group. However, because the study is underpowered, true survival prediction may be more difficult to infer.

Validation and evaluation of clinical prediction systems for first and repeated transarterial chemoembolization in unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma: A Chinese multicenter retrospective study

BACKGROUND

The treatment outcome of transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) in unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) varies greatly due to the clinical heterogeneity of the patients. Therefore, several prognostic systems have been proposed for risk stratification and candidate identification for first TACE and repeated TACE (re-TACE).

AIM

To investigate the correlations between prognostic systems and radiological response, compare the predictive abilities, and integrate them in sequence for outcome prediction.

METHODS

This nationwide multicenter retrospective cohort consisted of 1107 unresectable HCC patients in 15 Chinese tertiary hospitals from January 2010 to May 2016. The Hepatoma Arterial-embolization Prognostic (HAP) score system and its modified versions (mHAP, mHAP2 and mHAP3), as well as the six-and-twelve criteria were compared in terms of their correlations with radiological response and overall survival (OS) prediction for first TACE. The same analyses were conducted in 912 patients receiving re-TACE to evaluate the ART (assessment for re-treatment with TACE) and ABCR (alpha-fetoprotein, Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer, Child-Pugh and Response) systems for post re-TACE survival (PRTS).

RESULTS

All the prognostic systems were correlated with radiological response achieved by first TACE, and the six-and-twelve criteria exhibited the highest correlation (Spearman R = 0.39, P = 0.026) and consistency (Kappa = 0.14, P = 0.019), with optimal performance by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.71 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.68-0.74]. With regard to the prediction of OS, the mHAP3 system identified patients with a favorable outcome with the highest concordance (C)-index of 0.60 (95%CI: 0.57-0.62) and the best area under the receiver operating characteristic curve at any time point during follow-up; whereas, PRTS was well-predicted by the ABCR system with a C-index of 0.61 (95%CI: 0.59-0.63), rather than ART. Finally, combining the mHAP3 and ABCR systems identified candidates suitable for TACE with an improved median PRTS of 36.6 mo, compared with non-candidates with a median PRTS of 20.0 mo (log-rank test P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Radiological response to TACE is closely associated with tumor burden, but superior prognostic prediction could be achieved with the combination of mHAP3 and ABCR in patients with unresectable liver-confined HCC.

The Changing Landscape of Systemic Treatment of Advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma: New Targeted Agents and Immunotherapies

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the most common and deadliest cancers worldwide with a rising incidence in the Western world. HCCs are characterized by high resistance to systemic therapies induced by phenotypic and molecular heterogeneity. For almost 10 years, the tyrosine kinase inhibitor sorafenib was the only approved treatment for advanced HCCs in patients with preserved liver function, and until 2016, no new compounds tested in large phase III studies have led to a survival benefit. The tyrosine kinase inhibitor regorafenib, a fluorinated sorafenib analog, was the first substance that showed a significant improvement in overall survival after failure of sorafenib treatment, which subsequently led to its regulatory approval in a second-line setting in 2017. In addition, the non-inferiority of lenvatinib in comparison with sorafenib opened another therapeutic first-line option in the same year. Furthermore, several other compounds showed promising results in recent phase III studies, including ramucirumab in patients with elevated alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) levels as well as cabozantinib in second- and third-line settings. In addition, promising early reports of the immune checkpoint inhibitors nivolumab and pembrolizumab, with objective response rates of 15-20%, paved the way for immuno-oncological interventions for HCC and these will probably gain increasing attention as mono- and combination therapies. In summary, following the approval of sorafenib in 2007 and almost 10 years of therapeutic stagnation, results from recent clinical trials in first- and further-line settings for the first time demonstrated efficacy of several active compounds in advanced HCCs. Thus, a sequential approach should now be implemented in HCC treatment and will improve the survival of HCC patients.

Hepatocellular carcinoma macroscopic gross appearance on imaging: predictor of outcome after transarterial chemoembolization in a real-life multicenter French cohort

BACKGROUND

Conventional transarterial chemoembolization (cTACE) with lipiodol is widely performed in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) unsuitable for curative treatment. Additional tumor parameters such as HCC macroscopic appearance based on imaging might be helpful for transarterial chemoembolization prognostication and management.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A total of 405 patients with HCC who underwent cTACE between 2008 and 2016 from a real-life multicenter French cohort were retrospectively reviewed. Tumors were classified into two macroscopic types according to HCC gross appearance on imaging: nodular versus non-nodular. The study population was stratified into two groups: derivation and validation cohorts. Independent prognostic factors of survival based on multivariate cox regression models were determined and then assessed in the validation set. Thereafter, time to progression (TTP) and radiological response rate were investigated for each prognostic factors of survival.

RESULTS

Median overall survival (OS) was 35 months for Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage A, 22 months for BCLC stage B and 12 months for BCLC stage C patients (P < 0.0001). The corresponding TTP for these patients was 12 (7-17) months, 5 (3-6) months and 1.2 (1.2-3) months (P < 0.0001). Multivariate analysis revealed that tumors size and number, non-nodular type, alpha-fetoprotein, aspartate aminotransferase serum levels and impairment of performance status-1 were independent predictors of survival among the study groups. Non-nodular type was the most powerful factor that influences OS, TTP and radiological response rate for the recommended transarterial chemoembolization candidates. TTP was consistent with OS within each stage.

CONCLUSION

HCC macroscopic appearance on imaging is a determinant predictor of outcome after cTACE in a real-life multicenter cohort.

A new ALBI-based model to predict survival after transarterial chemoembolization for BCLC stage B hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) is a standard treatment for Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage B hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), but the outcome varied. This study aimed to develop a model to predict the outcome of TACE in HCC patients.

METHODS

Consecutive 570 treatment-naïve BCLC stage B HCC patients undergoing TACE as the initial treatment from 2007 to 2016 were retrospectively enrolled. Factors associated with survival were analysed. Patients undergoing TACE from 2007 to 2011 constituted the training cohort (n = 293), while patients undergoing TACE from 2012 to 2016 constituted the validation cohort (n = 277). Homogeneity and corrected Akaike information criterion (AICc) were compared between each prognostic model.

RESULTS

A total of 1796 TACE sessions were performed for the 570 patients during the median follow-up period of 18.3 months. By multivariate analysis, beyond up-to-11 criteria (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.694, P < .001), alpha-foetoprotein >200 ng/mL (HR = 1.771, P < .001) and albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade 2 or 3 (HR = 1.817, P < .001) were independent predictors of overall survival (OS) in the training cohort. An ALBI-TAE model based on the three independent predictors of OS from the training cohort was developed to classify HCC patients into four subgroups. The performance of the ALBI-TAE model was superior to other prognostic models with lowest AICc values and highest homogeneity in both the training and validation datasets as well as the overall cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

Albumin-bilirubin grade is an important factor associated with survival in BCLC stage B HCC patients undergoing TACE. ALBI-TAE model can be applied to select patients who can get most benefit from TACE.

Intermediate stage hepatocellular carcinoma: a summary review

It is well known that intermediate stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) encompasses the widest class of patients with this disease. The main characteristic of this special sub-group of patients is that it is extensively heterogenous. This substantial heterogeneity is due to the wide range of liver functions of such patients and variable tumor numbers and sizes. Real world clinical data show huge support for transarterial chemo-embolization (TACE) as a therapeutic modality for intermediate stage HCC, applied in 50%-60% of those class of patients. There are special considerations in various international guidelines regarding treatment allocation in intermediate stage HCC. There is an epidemiological difference in HCC in eastern and western cohorts, and various guidelines have been proposed. In patients with HCC, it has frequently been reported that there is poor correlation between the clinical benefit and real gain in patient condition and the conventional way of tumor response assessment after locoregional treatments. This is due to the evaluation criteria in addition to the scoring systems used for treatment allocation in those patients. It became clear that intermediate stage HCC patients receiving TACE need a proper prognostic score that offers valid clinical prediction and supports proper decision-making. Also, it is the proper time to study more treatment options beyond TACE, such as multimodal regimens for this class of patients. In this review, we tried to provide a summary of the challenges and future directions in managing patients with intermediate stage HCC.

Development of a prognostic score for recommended TACE candidates with hepatocellular carcinoma: A multicentre observational study

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Previous prognostic scores for transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) were mainly derived from real-world settings, which are beyond guideline recommendations. A robust model for outcome prediction and risk stratification of recommended TACE candidates is lacking. We aimed to develop an easy-to-use tool specifically for these patients.

METHODS

Between January 2010 and May 2016, 1,604 treatment-naïve patients with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), Child-Pugh A5-B7 and performance status 0 undergoing TACE were included from 24 tertiary centres. Patients were randomly divided into training (n = 807) and validation (n = 797) cohorts. A prognostic model was developed and subsequently validated. Predictive performance and discrimination were further evaluated and compared with other prognostic models.

RESULTS

The final presentation of the model was "linear predictor = largest tumour diameter (cm) + tumour number", which consistently outperformed other currently available models in both training and validation datasets as well as in different subgroups. The thirtieth percentile and the third quartile of the linear predictor, namely 6 and 12, were further selected as cut-off values, leading to the "six-and-twelve" score which could divide patients into 3 strata with the sum of tumour size and number ≤6, >6 but ≤12, and >12 presenting significantly different median survival of 49.1 (95% CI 43.7-59.4) months, 32.0 (95% CI 29.9-37.5) months, and 15.8 (95% CI 14.1-17.7) months, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The six-and-twelve score may prove an easy-to-use tool to stratify recommended TACE candidates (Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage-A/B) and predict individual survival with favourable performance and discrimination. Moreover, the score could stratify these patients in clinical practice as well as help design clinical trials with comparable criteria involving these patients. Further external validation of the score is required.

LAY SUMMARY

There is currently no prognostic model specifically developed for recommended or ideal transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) candidates with hepatocellular carcinoma, despite these patients being frequently identified as the best target population in pivotal randomized controlled trials. The six-and-twelve score provides patient survival prediction, especially in ideal candidates of TACE, outperforming other currently available models in both training and validation sets, as well as different subgroups. With cut-off values of 6 and 12, the score can stratify ideal TACE candidates into 3 strata with significantly different outcomes and may shed light on risk stratification of these patients in clinical practice as well as in clinical trials.

Feasibility of dynamic risk assessment for patients with repeated trans-arterial chemoembolization for hepatocellular carcinoma

Background

Hepatoma arterial-embolization prognostic (HAP) score and its modifications (modified HAP [mHAP] and mHAP-II), consisting of some or all of the following factors of tumor size, number, alpha-fetoprotein, bilirubin, and serum albumin, have been found to predict outcomes after trans-arterial chemoembolization (TACE) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We investigated the feasibility of using HAP-related risk scores for dynamic risk assessment during repeated TACE.

Methods

A total of 619 HCC patients treated with TACE from two institutions between 2003 and 2010 were included.

Results

Patients with A-B class risk scores showed significantly better survival than those with C-D class risk scores at the first (median 43.7 vs. 21.5 months for mHAP-II, 35.2 vs. 10.2 months for mHAP, and 39.8 vs. 18.6 months for HAP; all P < 0.001) and the second rounds of TACE (38.6 vs. 17.2 months for mHAP-II, 30.0 vs. 8.5 months for mHAP, and 32.6 vs. 17.3 months for HAP; all P < 0.001). Sequential assessment of risk scores at the second TACE round was applied for patients with A-B class risk scores at the first TACE round, which further identified two subgroups of A-B and C-D class risk scores with different outcomes (median survival 40.6 vs. 19.6 months for mHAP-II, 31.2 vs. 16.9 months for mHAP, and 35.8 vs. 21.0 months for HAP; all P < 0.001). Compared with mHAP and HAP, mHAP-II showed the highest likelihood ratio (22.61 vs. 14.67 and 13.97, respectively), highest linear trend (24.43 vs. 19.67 and 14.19, respectively), and lowest Akaike information criteria value (1432.51 vs. 3412.29 and 2296.98, respectively).

Conclusions

All HAP-related risk scores dynamically predicted outcomes during repeated TACE. Sequential risk assessment using mHAP-II best identified optimal candidates for repeated TACE.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12885-019-5495-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Validation of the SNACOR clinical scoring system after transarterial chemoembolisation in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

Background

Transarterial chemoembolisation is the standard of care for intermediate stage (BCLC B) hepatocellular carcinoma, but it is challenging to decide when to repeat or stop treatment. Here we performed the first external validation of the SNACOR (tumour Size and Number, baseline Alpha-fetoprotein, Child-Pugh and Objective radiological Response) risk prediction model.

Methods

A total of 1030 patients with hepatocellular carcinoma underwent transarterial chemoembolisation at our tertiary referral centre from January 2000 to December 2016. We determined the following variables that were needed to calculate the SNACOR at baseline: tumour size and number, alpha-fetoprotein level, Child-Pugh class, and objective radiological response after the first transarterial chemoembolisation. Overall survival, time-dependent area under receiver-operating characteristic curves, Harrell’s C-index, and the integrated Brier score were calculated to assess predictive ability. Finally, multivariate analysis was performed to identify independent predictors of survival.

Results

The study included 268 patients. Low, intermediate, and high SNACOR scores predicted a median survival of 31.5, 19.9, and 9.2 months, respectively. The areas under the receiver-operating characteristic curve for overall survival were 0.641, 0.633, and 0.609 at 1, 3, and 6 years, respectively. Harrell’s C-index was 0.59, and the integrated Brier Score was 0.175. Independent predictors of survival included tumour size (P < 0.001), baseline alpha-fetoprotein level (P < 0.001) and Child-Pugh class (P < 0.004). Objective radiological response (P = 0.821) and tumour number (P = 0.127) were not additional independent predictors of survival.

Conclusions

The SNACOR risk prediction model can be used to identify patients with a dismal prognosis after the first transarterial chemoembolisation who are unlikely to benefit from further transarterial chemoembolisation. However, Harrell’s C-index showed only moderate performance. Accordingly, this risk prediction model can only serve as one of several components used to make the decision about whether to repeat treatment.

Average treatment effect of hepatic resection versus locoregional therapies for hepatocellular carcinoma

Background

When comparing the efficacy of surgical and non-surgical therapies for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), a major limitation is the causal inference problem. This concerns the impossibility of seeing both outcomes of two different treatments for the same individual at the same time because one is inevitably missing. This aspect can be addressed methodologically by estimating the so-called average treatment effect (ATE).

Methods

To estimate the ATE of hepatic resection over locoregional therapies for HCC, data from patients treated in two tertiary care settings between August 2000 and December 2014 were used to obtain counterfactual outcomes using an inverse probability weight survival adjustment.

Results

A total of 1585 patients were enrolled: 815 underwent hepatic resection, 337 radiofrequency ablation (RFA) and 433 transarterial chemoembolization (TACE). The option of operating on all patients who had tumour ablation returned an ATE of +9·8 months for resection (effect size 0·111; adjusted P = 0·064). The option of operating on all patients who had TACE returned an ATE of +27·9 months (effect size 0·383; adjusted P &lt; 0·001). The ATE of surgery was negligible in patients undergoing ablation for very early HCCs (effect size 0·027; adjusted P = 0·627), independently of albumin–bilirubin (ALBI) grade; or in patients with ALBI liver function grade 2 (effect size 0·083; adjusted P = 0·213), independently of tumour stage. In all other instances, the ATE of surgery was notably greater. Operating on patients who had TACE with multinodular HCC beyond the Milan criteria resulted in a mild ATE (effect size 0·140; adjusted P = 0·037).

Conclusion

ATE estimation suggests that hepatic resection is a better treatment option than ablation and TACE in patients with HCC.

Competing risk analysis on outcome after hepatic resection of hepatocellular carcinoma in cirrhotic patients

AIM

To investigate death for liver failure and for tumor recurrence as competing events after hepatectomy of hepatocellular carcinoma.

METHODS

Data from 864 cirrhotic Child-Pugh class A consecutive patients, submitted to curative hepatectomy (1997-2013) at two tertiary referral hospitals, were used for competing-risk analysis through the Fine and Gray method, aimed at assessing in which circumstances the oncological benefit from tumour removal is greater than the risk of dying from hepatic decompensation. To accomplish this task, the average risk of these two competing events, over 5 years of follow-up, was calculated through the integral of each cumulative incidence function, and represented the main comparison parameter.

RESULTS

Within a median follow-up of 5.6 years, death was attributable to tumor recurrence in 63.5%, and to liver failure in 21.2% of cases. In the first 16 mo, the risk of dying due to liver failure exceeded that of dying due to tumor relapse. Tumor stage only affects death from recurrence; whereas hepatitis C infection, Model for End-stage Liver Disease score, extent of hepatectomy and portal hypertension influence death from liver failure (P < 0.05 in all cases). The combination of these clinical and tumoral features identifies those patients in whom the risk of dying from liver failure did not exceed the tumour-related mortality, representing optimal surgical candidates. It also identifies those clinical circumstances where the oncological benefit would be borderline or even where the surgery would be harmful.

CONCLUSION

Having knowledge of these competing events can be used to weigh the risks and benefits of hepatic resection in each clinical circumstance, separating optimal from non-optimal surgical candidates.

Experience from a real-life cohort: outcome of 606 patients with hepatocellular carcinoma following transarterial chemoembolization

BACKGROUND

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the most lethal cancers. Transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) has been accepted as the standard care for intermediate stage disease.

METHODS

In this study, we characterized 606 with HCC patients from Hannover Medical School treated with TACE.

RESULTS

606 with HCC patients treated with TACE were identified between 2000 and 2015. Most patients (59.8%) were at intermediate stage. Following TACE, most patients subsequently received systemic therapy or best supportive care (BSC), whereas 227 (37.5%) patients were bridged to potentially curative local treatments. Depending on subsequent therapies, median post-TACE survival ranged from 7 to 162 months. Ascites, cholinesterase, c-reactive and alpha-feto protein and tumor size were identified as prognostic factors. These factors as well as the HAP, mHAP-II and STATE score also determined post-TACE survival independent of subsequent therapies. Hepatic function progressively deteriorated with repeated TACE sessions. Despite that, post-TACE survival was not shortened in frequently treated patients (≥5 times) as compared to patients treated 4 times or less (p = not significant [n.s.]). Patients treated ≥5 times with TACE received significantly more often systemic therapy following TACE (37.3%) as compared to patients with 3-4 (30.1%), 2 (27.4%) and 1 (21.8%) sessions (p < .05).

CONCLUSION

TACE is performed in a heterogeneous population as bridging therapy to other local treatments and palliative therapy. The long-term survival following TACE is determined by baseline tumor, patient-related factors and by subsequent therapies. Post-TACE survival is not shorter in patients with frequent treatments (≥5), and the rate of subsequent systemic treatments is higher compared to less frequently treated patients.