Evaluation of a serum tumour marker-based recurrence prediction model after radiofrequency ablation for hepatocellular carcinoma

Association of serum AFP trajectories and hepatocellular carcinoma outcomes after hepatic arterial infusion chemotherapy: A longitudinal, multicenter study

AIM

This study aims to investigate α-fetoprotein (AFP) trajectories for prediction of survival outcomes after hepatic arterial infusion chemotherapy (HAIC) treatment in large hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

METHODS

From May 2014 to June 2020, 889 eligible patients with large HCC underwent HAIC were retrospectively enrolled from five hospitals. A latent class growth mixed (LCGM) model was applied to distinguish potential AFP level dynamic changing trajectories. Inverse-probability-of-treatment weighted (IPTW) analyses were performed to eliminate unmeasured confounders through marginal structural models. Multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression analyses were used to determine the overall survival (OS) in patients with large HCC. Performance of these serum markers for survival prediction was compared by areas under receiver operating characteristic analysis with the Delong test.

RESULTS

The median follow-up time was 23.7 (interquartile range, 3.8-115.3). A total of 1009 patients with large HCC, who underwent HAIC with AFP repeatedly measured 3-10 times, were enrolled in the study. Three distinct trajectories of these serum AFP were identified using the LCGM model: high stable (37.0%; n = 373), low stable (15.7%; n = 159), and sharp-falling (47.3%; n = 477). Multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression analyses found that ALBI stage 2-3, BCLC-C stage and high-stable AFP trajectories were associated with OS. AFP trajectories yield the optimal predictive performance in all risk factors.

CONCLUSIONS

The AFP trajectories based on longitudinal AFP change showed outstanding performance for predicting survival outcomes after HAIC treatment in large HCC, which provide a potential monitoring tool for improving clinical decision-making.

LI-RADS category is associated with treatment outcomes of small single HCC: surgical resection vs. radiofrequency ablation

OBJECTIVES

To assess whether the Liver Imaging Reporting and Data System (LI-RADS) category is associated with the treatment outcomes of small single hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after surgical resection (SR) and radiofrequency ablation (RFA).

METHODS

This retrospective study included 357 patients who underwent SR (n = 209) or RFA (n = 148) for a single HCC of ≤ 3 cm between 2014 and 2016. LI-RADS categories were assigned. Overall survival (OS), recurrence-free survival (RFS), and local tumor progression (LTP) rates after treatment were compared according to the LI-RADS category (LR-4/5 vs. LR-M) before and after propensity score matching (PSM). Prognostic factors for treatment outcomes were assessed.

RESULTS

In total, 357 patients (mean age, 59 years; men, 272) with 357 HCCs (294 LR-4/5 and 63 LR-M) were included. After PSM (n = 78 in each treatment group), there were 10 and 11 LR-M HCCs in the SR and RFA group, respectively. There were no significant differences in OS or RFS. However, SR provided a lower 5-year LTP rate than RFA (1.4% vs. 14.9%, p = 0.001). SR provided a lower 5-year LTP rate than RFA for LR-M HCCs (0% vs. 34.4%, p = 0.062) and LR-4/5 HCCs (1.5% vs. 12.0%, p = 0.008). The LI-RADS category was the sole risk factor associated with poor OS (hazard ratio [HR] 3.79, p = 0.004), RFS (HR 2.12; p = 0.001), and LTP (HR 2.89; p = 0.032).

CONCLUSION

LI-RADS classification is associated with the treatment outcome of HCC, supporting favorable outcomes of SR over RFA for LTP, especially for HCCs categorized as LR-M.

CLINICAL RELEVANCE STATEMENT

Liver Imaging Reporting and Data System category has a potential prognostic role, supporting favorable outcomes of surgical resection over radiofrequency ablation for local tumor progression, especially for hepatocellular carcinoma categorized as LR-M.

KEY POINTS

• SR provided a lower 5-year LTP rate than RFA for HCCs categorized as LR-M (0% vs. 34.4%, p = 0.062) and HCCs categorized as LR-4/5 (1.5% vs. 12.0%, p = 0.008). • There is a steeply increased risk of LTP within 1 year after RFA for LR-M HCCs, compared to SR. • The LI-RADS category was the sole risk factor associated with poor OS (HR 3.79, p = 0.004), RFS (HR 2.12; p = 0.001), and LTP (HR 2.89; p = 0.032) in patients with HCC of ≤ 3 cm treated with SR or RFA.

Incorporation of protein induced by vitamin K absence or antagonist-II into transplant criteria expands beneficiaries of liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma: a multicenter retrospective cohort study in China

INTRODUCTION

In order to maximize the utilization of precious donor liver, precisely determining potential hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) candidates who will benefit from liver transplantation (LT) is essential. As a crucial diagnostic biomarker for HCC, protein induced by vitamin K absence or antagonist-II (PIVKA-II) has become one of the key indicators for assessing tumor recurrence risk after LT. This study aims to investigate the role of PIVKA-II in recipient selection and prognostic stratification.

METHODS

The clinicopathologic data of HCC patients undergoing LT from 2015 to 2020 in six Chinese transplant centers were collected. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to determine risk factors for disease free survival (DFS). Based on these risk factors, survival analysis was made by Kaplan-Meier method and their value in prognostic stratification was assessed.

RESULTS

A total of 522 eligible HCC patients with pre-LT PIVKA-II records were finally included in this study. Tumor burden>8 cm, α-fetoprotein>400 ng/ml, histopathologic grade III and PIVKA-II>240 mAU/ml were identified as independent risk factors for DFS. DFS of patients with PIVKA-II≤240 mAU/ml ( N =288) were significantly higher than those with PIVKA-II>240 mAU/ml ( N =234) (1-year, 3-year, and 5-year DFS: 83.2, 77.3, and 75.9% vs. 75.1, 58.5, and 50.5%; P <0.001). Compared with Hangzhou criteria ( N =305), incorporating PIVKA-II into Hangzhou criteria (including tumor burden, α-fetoprotein, and histopathologic grade) increased the number of patients with eligibility for LT by 21.6% but achieved comparable DFS and overall survival.

CONCLUSIONS

Incorporating PIVKA-II into existing LT criteria could increase the number of eligible HCC patients without compromising post-LT outcomes.

Combined Transarterial Chemoembolization and Radiofrequency Ablation for Hepatocellular Carcinoma Infeasible for Ultrasound-Guided Percutaneous Radiofrequency Ablation: A Comparative Study with General Ultrasound-Guided Radiofrequency Ablation Outcomes

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to evaluate the therapeutic outcomes of transarterial chemoembolization combined with radiofrequency ablation (TACE + RFA) for hepatocellular carcinomas (HCC) measuring ≤3 cm infeasible for ultrasound (US)-guided percutaneous RFA.

METHODS

Twenty-four patients who underwent fluoroscopy-guided TACE + RFA for single HCC between January 2012 and December 2016 were screened. To evaluate the TACE + RFA outcomes compared with those of US-guided RFA, 371 patients who underwent US-guided RFA during the same period were screened. We compared local tumor progression (LTP) and intrahepatic distant recurrence (IDR) between the two groups before and after propensity score (PS) matching, and performed univariable and multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression analyses for all patients.

RESULTS

PS matching yielded 21 and 42 patients in the TACE + RFA and US-guided RFA groups, respectively. Cumulative LTP rates after PS matching were not significantly different between the two groups at 1 (0.0% vs. 7.4%, p = 0.072), 2 (10.5% vs. 7.4%, p = 0.701), and 5 years (16.9% vs. 10.5%, p = 0.531). IDR rates did not differ significantly between the two groups at 1 (20.6% vs. 10%, p = 0.307), 2 (25.9% vs. 25.9%, p = 0.999), or 5 years (49.9% vs. 53%, p = 0.838). Multivariable analysis showed that treatment type was not a significant factor for LTP or IDR.

CONCLUSION

The outcomes of TACE + RFA for HCC were similar to those of general US-guided RFA. Fluoroscopy-guided TACE + RFA may be an effective treatment when US-guided RFA is not feasible.

Peripheral immune factors aiding clinical parameter for better early recurrence prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma after thermal ablation

OBJECTIVES

Current predictors are largely unsatisfied for early recurrence (ER) of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after thermal ablation. We aimed to explore the prognostic value of peripheral immune factors (PIFs) for better ER prediction of HCC after thermal ablation.

METHODS

Patients who received peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) tests before thermal ablation were included. Clinical parameters and 18 PIFs were selected to construct Model^Clin, Model^PIFs and the hybrid Model^PIFs-Clin. Model performances were evaluated using area under the curve (AUC), and recurrence-free survival (RFS) were analyzed by Kaplan-Meier analysis and log-rank tests.

RESULTS

244 patients were included and were randomly divided in 3:1 ratio to discovery and validation cohorts. Clinical parameters including tumor size and AFP, and PIFs including neutrophils, platelets, CD3⁺CD16⁺CD56⁺ NKT and CD8⁺CD28^- T lymphocytes were selected. The Model^PIFs-Clin showed increase in predictive performance compared with Model^Clin, with the AUC improved from 0.664 (95%CI:0.588-0.740) to 0.801 (95%CI:0.734-0.867) in discovery cohort (p < 0.0001), and from 0.645 (95%CI:0.510-0.781) to 0.737(95%CI:0.608-0.865) in validation cohort (p = 0.1006). Model^PIFs-Clin enabled ER risk stratification of patients. Patients predicted in Model^PIFs-Clin high-risk subgroup had a poor RFS compared with those predicted as Model^PIFs-Clin low-risk subgroup, with the median RFS was 18.00 month versus 100.78 month in discovery cohort (p < 0.0001); and 24.00 month versus 60.35 month in validation cohort (p = 0.288). Patients in different risk subgroups exhibited distinct peripheral immune contexture.

CONCLUSIONS

Peripheral immune cells aiding clinical parameters boosted the prediction ability for ER of HCC after thermal ablation, which be helpful for pre-ablation ER risk stratification.

Risk Group Stratification for Recurrence-Free Survival and Early Tumor Recurrence after Radiofrequency Ablation for Hepatocellular Carcinoma

PURPOSE

Although the prognosis after radiofrequency ablation (RFA) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) may vary according to different risk levels, there is no standardized follow-up protocol according to each patient's risk. This study aimed to stratify patients according to their risk of recurrence-free survival (RFS) and early (≤2 years) tumor recurrence (ETR) after RFA for HCC based on predictive models and nomograms and to compare the survival times of the risk groups derived from the models.

METHODS

Patients who underwent RFA for a single HCC (≤3 cm) between January 2012 and March 2014 (n = 152) were retrospectively reviewed. Patients were classified into low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups based on the total nomogram points for RFS and ETR, respectively, and compared for each outcome. Restricted mean survival times (RMSTs) in the three risk groups were evaluated for both RFS and ETR to quantitatively evaluate the difference in survival times.

RESULTS

Predictive models for RFS and ETR were constructed with c-indices of 0.704 and 0.730, respectively. The high- and intermediate-risk groups for RFS had an 8.5-fold and 2.9-fold higher risk of events than the low-risk group (both p < 0.001), respectively. The high- and intermediate-risk groups for ETR had a 17.7-fold and 7.0-fold higher risk than the low-risk group (both p < 0.001), respectively. The RMST in the high-risk group was significantly lower than that in the other two groups 9 months after RFA, and that in the intermediate-risk group became lower than that in the low-risk group after 21 months with RFS and 24 months with ETR.

CONCLUSION

Our predictive models were able to stratify patients into three groups according to their risk of RFS and ETR after RFA for HCC. Differences in RMSTs may be used to establish different follow-up protocols for the three risk groups.

Transarterial chemoembolization as an alternative to radioembolization is associated with earlier tumor recurrence than in radioembolization-eligible patients

Introduction

Although transarterial radioembolization (TARE) using yttrium-90 (⁹⁰Y) is a treatment option for large hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), a fraction of patients are ineligible for TARE due to high lung shunt fraction (LSF).

Methods

We evaluated if treatment with transarterial chemoembolization (TACE), owing to TARE ineligibility was associated with early HCC progression. Consecutive patients with HCC who were initially TARE candidates were included. Patients with vascular invasion or metastasis were excluded. Primary endpoints were time-to-progression (TTP) and overall survival (OS). The secondary endpoint was objective response rate.

Results

In total, 175 patients were included: 144 underwent TARE (TARE-eligible group) and 31 underwent TACE due to high LSF (TARE-ineligible group). This latter group had larger tumors (13.8 cm vs. 7.8 cm, P<0.001) and higher MoRAL scores (1,385.8 vs. 413.3, P=0.002) than the TARE-eligible group. After balancing baseline characteristics with an inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW), the TARE-ineligible group showed shorter TTP [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR)=2.16, 95% confidence interval (CI)=1.14-4.07, P=0.02] and OS (aHR=1.80, 95% CI=0.85-3.80, P=0.12), although the latter was not statistically significant. The TARE-ineligible group had a significantly lower objective response rate than the TARE-eligible group (9.7% vs. 56.9%, P<0.001).

Conclusion

TARE-ineligible patients had larger tumors and higher MoRAL scores than TARE-eligible patients. Treatment with TACE, owing to high LSF, was associated with a shorter TTP even after balancing tumor size and MoRAL scores.

External validation and improvement of the scoring system for predicting the prognosis in hepatocellular carcinoma after interventional therapy

Background

Currently, locoregional therapies, such as transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) and ablation, play an important role in the treatment of Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, an easy-to-use scoring system that predicts recurrence to guide individualized management of HCC with varying risks of recurrence remains an unmet need.

Methods

A total of 483 eligible HCC patients treated by TACE combined with ablation from January 1, 2017, to December 31, 2019, were included in the temporal external validation cohort and then used to explore possibilities for refinement of the original scoring system. We investigated the prognostic value of baseline variables on recurrence-free survival (RFS) using a Cox model and developed the easily applicable YA score. The performances of the original scoring system and YA score were assessed according to discrimination (area under the receiver operating curve [AUROC] and Harrell's concordance index [C-statistic]), calibration (calibration curves), and clinical utility [decision curve analysis (DCA) curves]. Finally, improvement in the ability to predict in the different scoring systems was assessed using the Net Reclassification Index (NRI). The YA score was lastly compared with other prognostic scores.

Results

During the median follow-up period of 35.6 months, 292 patients experienced recurrence. In the validation cohort, the original scoring system exhibited high discrimination (C-statistic: 0.695) and calibration for predicting the prognosis in HCC. To improve the prediction performance, the independent predictors of RFS, including gender, alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) and des-γ-carboxyprothrombin (DCP), tumor number, tumor size, albumin-to-prealbumin ratio (APR), and fibrinogen, were incorporated into the YA score, an improved score. Compared to the original scoring system, the YA score has better discrimination (c-statistic: 0.712VS0.695), with outstanding calibration and the clinical net benefit, both in the training and validation cohorts. Moreover, the YA score accurately stratified patients with HCC into low-, intermediate- and high-risk groups of recurrence and mortality and outperformed other prognostic scores.

Conclusion

YA score is associated with recurrence and survival in early- and middle-stage HCC patients receiving local treatment. Such score would be valuable in guiding the monitoring of follow-up and the design of adjuvant treatment trials, providing highly informative data for clinical management decisions.

Long-term Outcomes of Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma Who Underwent Microwave Ablation after Downstaging with Transarterial Chemoembolization to Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer Stage A

PURPOSE

To compare the clinical results of microwave ablation (MWA) between patients downstaged to Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) Stage A with transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) and those initially classified as BCLC Stage A.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

From January 2012 to May 2017, 1,087 patients were reviewed retrospectively using propensity score matching (1:1): 86 patients underwent MWA as a curative treatment after downstaging to BCLC Stage A by TACE (downstaging group) and 86 patients initially classified as BCLC Stage A underwent MWA (control group). The overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) between the 2 groups were compared.

RESULTS

The 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS rates were 95.3%, 79.1%, and 58.1%, respectively, in the downstaging group and 93.0%, 81.4%, and 61.6%, respectively, in the control group (hazard ratio [HR], 0.75; 95% CI, 0.50-1.13; P = .162). The 1-, 3-, and 5-year DFS rates were 80.2%, 50.0%, and 24.4%, respectively, in the downstaging group and 77.9%, 52.3%, and 27.9%, respectively, in the control group (HR, 1.08; 95% CI, 0.76-1.53; P = .678). No significant differences were found in OS and DFS.

CONCLUSIONS

The long-term prognosis in patients with HCC who underwent MWA after downstaging to BCLC Stage A using TACE was similar to that in patients with initial BCLC Stage A.

Prediction Model for Intrahepatic Distant Recurrence After Radiofrequency Ablation for Primary Hepatocellular Carcinoma 2 cm or Smaller

BACKGROUND

Intrahepatic hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has a high recurrence rate after radiofrequency ablation (RFA). However, to date, no standalone predictive factors for intrahepatic distant recurrence after curative ablation have been reported.

AIMS

The aim of this study was to investigate predictive factors for intrahepatic distant recurrence after curative treatment with RFA for HCCs.

METHODS

This multicenter study consisted of 17 institutions that registered 821 patients. The risk factors for intrahepatic distant recurrence after complete ablation by RFA for primary HCC ≤ 2 cm in diameter were identified in a retrospectively collected training set (n = 636) and then validated in a prospectively collected validation set (n = 185).

RESULTS

The cumulative intrahepatic distant and local recurrence rates (i.e., entire recurrence rate) in the training set were 23.6% and 53.7% at 1 and 3 years, respectively. The cumulative intrahepatic distant recurrence rates in the training set were 17.0% and 43.8% at 1 and 3 years, respectively. Multivariate analysis of the training set showed that tumor number and serum levels of α-fetoprotein (AFP) and des-γ-carboxy prothrombin (DCP) were independent risk factors for both entire recurrence and intrahepatic distant recurrence. Intrahepatic distant recurrence risk in both the training and validation cohorts was stratified using a scoring system with three factors: tumor number (single or multiple), AFP (< 10 ng/ml or ≥ 10 ng/ml), and DCP (< 50 mAU/ml or ≥ 50 mAU/ml).

CONCLUSION

The scoring system composed of tumor number, AFP, and DCP is useful for classifying the risk of intrahepatic distant recurrence after curative ablation for HCC.

The Dynamic Changes of AFP From Baseline to Recurrence as an Excellent Prognostic Factor of Hepatocellular Carcinoma After Locoregional Therapy: A 5-Year Prospective Cohort Study

Background

Although many studies have confirmed the prognostic value of preoperative alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), the association between AFP at baseline (b-AFP), subsequent AFP at relapse (r-AFP), and AFP alteration and overall survival in HCC patients receiving locoregional therapy has rarely been systematically elucidated.

Patients and Methods

A total of 583 subjects with newly diagnosis of virus-related HCC who were admitted to Beijing You ‘an Hospital, Capital Medical University from January 1, 2012 to December 31, 2016 were prospectively enrolled. The influence of b-AFP, subsequent r-AFP, and AFP alteration on relapse and post-recurrence survival were analyzed.

Results

By the end of follow-up, a total of 431 (73.9%) patients relapsed and 200 (34.3%) died. Patients with positive b-AFP had a 24% increased risk of recurrence compared with those who were negative. Patients with positive r-AFP had a 68% increased risk of death after relapse compared with those who were negative. The cumulative recurrence-death survival (RDS) rates for 1, 3, 5 years in patients with negative r-AFP were 85.6% (184/215), 70.2%(151/215), and 67.4%(145/215), while the corresponding rates were 75.1% (154/205), 51.2% (105/205), and 48.8% (100/205) in those with positive AFP (P<0.001). 35 (21.6%) of the 162 patients with negative b-AFP turned positive at the time of recurrence, and of this subset, only 12 (34.3%) survived. Of the 255 patients with positive b-AFP, 86 (33.7%) turned negative at the time of relapse, and of this subset, only 30 (34.9%) died. The 1-, 3-, and 5-year cumulative RDS rates were also compared among groups stratified by AFP at baseline and relapse. The present study found that patients with positive AFP at baseline and relapse, as well as those who were negative turned positive, had the shortest RDS and OS.

Conclusions

Not only AFP at baseline but also subsequent AFP at relapse can be used to predict a post-recurrence survival, which can help evaluate mortality risk stratification of patients after relapse.

Predicting early refractoriness of transarterial chemoembolization in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma using a random forest algorithm: A pilot study

Purpose: To develop and validate a random forest (RF) based predictive model of early refractoriness to transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) in patients with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

Methods: A total of 227 patients with unresectable HCC who initially treated with TACE from three independent institutions were retrospectively included. Following a random split, 158 patients (70%) were assigned to a training cohort and the remaining 69 patients (30%) were assigned to a validation cohort. The process of variables selection was based on the importance variable scores generated by RF algorithm. A RF predictive model incorporating the selected variables was developed, and five-fold cross-validation was performed. The discrimination and calibration of the RF model were measured by a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test.

Results: The potential variables selected by RF algorithm for developing predictive model of early TACE refractoriness included patients' age, number of tumors, tumor distribution, platelet count (PLT), and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR). The results showed that the RF predictive model had good discrimination ability, with an area under curve (AUC) of 0.863 in the training cohort and 0.767 in the validation cohort, respectively. In Hosmer-Lemeshow test, the RF model had a satisfactory calibration with P values of 0.538 and 0.068 in training cohort and validation cohort, respectively.

Conclusion: The RF algorithm-based model has a good predictive performance in the prediction of early TACE refractoriness, which may easily be deployed in clinical routine and help to determine the optimal patient of care.

Immunological Markers, Prognostic Factors and Challenges Following Curative Treatments for Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the leading causes of cancer-related mortalities worldwide. Patients with early-stage HCC are eligible for curative treatments, such as surgical resection, liver transplantation (LT) and percutaneous ablation. Although curative treatments provide excellent long-term survival, almost 70–80% of patients experience HCC recurrence after curative treatments. Tumor-related factors, including tumor size, number and differentiation, and underlying liver disease, are well-known risk factors for recurrence following curative therapies. Moreover, the tumor microenvironment (TME) also plays a key role in the recurrence of HCC. Many immunosuppressive mechanisms, such as an increase in regulatory T cells and myeloid-derived suppressor cells with a decrease in cytotoxic T cells, are implicated in HCC recurrence. These suppressive TMEs are also modulated by several factors and pathways, including mammalian target of rapamycin signaling, vascular endothelial growth factor, programmed cell death protein 1 and its ligand 1. Based on these mechanisms and the promising results of immune checkpoint blockers (ICBs) in advanced HCC, there have been several ongoing adjuvant studies using a single or combination of ICB following curative treatments in HCC. In this review, we strive to provide biologic and immunological markers, prognostic factors, and challenges associated with clinical outcomes after curative treatments, including resection, LT and ablation.

Co-amplification of genes in chromosome 8q24: a robust prognostic marker in hepatocellular carcinoma

Background

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a leading cause of tumor-associated death worldwide, owing to its high 5-year postoperative recurrence rate and inter-individual heterogeneity. Thus, a prognostic model is urgently needed for patients with HCC. Several researches have reported that copy number amplification of the 8q24 chromosomal region is associated with low survival in many cancers. In the present work, we set out to construct a multi-gene model for prognostic prediction in HCC.

Methods

RNA sequencing and copy number variant data of tumor tissue samples of HCC from The Cancer Genome Atlas (n=328) were used to identify differentially expressed messenger RNAs of genes located on the chromosomal 8q24 region by the Wilcox test. Univariate Cox and Lasso-Cox regression analyses were carried out for the screening and construction of a prognostic multi-gene signature in The Cancer Genome Atlas cohort (n=119). The multi-gene signature was validated in a cohort from the International Cancer Genome Consortium (n=240). A nomogram for prognostic prediction was built, and the underpinning molecular mechanisms were studied by Gene Set Enrichment Analysis.

Results

We successfully established a 7-gene prognostic signature model to predict the prognosis of patients with HCC. Using the model, we divided individuals into high-risk and low-risk sets, which showed a significant difference in overall survival in the training dataset (HR =0.17, 95% CI: 0.1-0.28; P<0.001) and in the testing dataset (HR = 0.42, 95% CI: 0.23-0.74; P=0.002). Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed the signature to be an independent prognostic factor of HCC survival. A nomogram including the prognostic signature was constructed and showed a better predictive performance in short-term (1 and 3 years) than in long-term (5 years) survival. Furthermore, Gene Set Enrichment Analysis identified several pathways of significance, which may aid in explaining the underlying molecular mechanism.

Conclusions

Our 7-gene signature is a reliable prognostic marker for HCC, which may provide meaningful information for therapeutic customization and treatment-related decision making.

Risk Factors, Patterns, and Long-Term Survival of Recurrence After Radiofrequency Ablation With or Without Transarterial Chemoembolization for Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Objectives

To classify hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) recurrence patterns after radiofrequency ablation (RFA) or transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) combined with RFA (TACE-RFA) and analyze their risk factors and impacts on survival.

Methods

We retrospectively evaluated the medical records of HCC patients who underwent RFA or TACE-RFA from January 2006 to December 2016. HCC recurrences were classified into four patterns: local tumor progression (LTP), intra-segmental recurrence, extra-segmental recurrence, and aggressive recurrence. Risk factors, overall survival (OS), and post-recurrence survival of each pattern were evaluated.

Results

A total of 249 patients with a single, hepatitis-B virus (HBV)-related HCC ≤ 5.0 cm who underwent RFA (HCC ≤ 3.0 cm) or TACE-RFA (HCC of 3.1-5.0 cm) were included. During follow-up (median, 53 months), 163 patients experienced HCC recurrence: 40, 43, 62 and 18 patients developed LTP, intra-segmental recurrence, extra-segmental recurrence, and aggressive recurrence, respectively; the median post-recurrence survival was 49, 37, 25 and 15 months, respectively (P < .001); the median OS was 65, 56, 58 and 28 months, respectively (P < .001). Independent risk factors for each pattern were as follows: tumor sized 2.1-3.0 cm undergoing RFA alone and insufficient ablative margin for LTP, periportal tumor and non-smooth tumor margin for intra-segmental recurrence, HBV-DNA ≥ 2000 IU/mL for extra-segmental recurrence, and periportal tumor and α-fetoprotein ≥ 100 ng/mL for aggressive recurrence. Recurrence pattern (P < .001) and Child-Pugh class B (P = .025) were independent predictors for OS.

Conclusions

Based on our classification, each recurrence pattern had different recurrence risk factors, OS, and post-recurrence survival.

A clinical scoring system for predicting tumor recurrence after percutaneous radiofrequency ablation for 3 cm or less hepatocellular carcinoma

Preoperative prediction of tumor recurrence after radiofrequency ablation (RFA) in patients with early hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is helpful for clinical decision-making before treatment. A total of 162 patients with HCC of 3 cm or less who were completely ablated by percutaneous RFA were divided into a derivation cohort (n = 108) and a validation cohort (n = 54). Based on X-Tiles software, Kaplan–Meier curve analysis and COX multivariate analysis to obtain valuable predictive indicators, a clinical scoring system for predicting tumor recurrence was established. In the verall cohort, derivation cohort and validation cohort, we found circulating tumor cells (CTC) > 2/3.2 mL, alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) > 20 ng/mL, and des-γ-carboxyprothrombin (DCP) > 40 mAU/mL, maximum tumor diameter > 20 mm, and the number of multiple tumors (≥ 2) are independent risk factors affecting tumor recurrence. Each independent risk factor was assigned a score of 1 to construct a predictive clinical scoring system, and X-Tiles software was used to divide the clinical score into a low-risk group (0 score–1 score), a medium-risk group (2 scores–3 scores), and a high-risk group (4 scores–5 scores). The cumulative tumor recurrence rates of patients in the low-risk group, middle-risk group, and high-risk group in 1 year, 2 years, and 3 years were 19.4%/27.5%/30.9%, 37.0%/63.2%/79.9% and 68.2%/100%/100%, respectively (Low-risk group vs medium-risk group: P < 0.001; medium-risk group vs high-risk group: P < 0.001). This clinical scoring system can predict the prognosis of patients with HCC of 3 cm or smaller undergoing percutaneous RFA, which has certain application value for making preoperative clinical decisions.

Current updates in machine learning in the prediction of therapeutic outcome of hepatocellular carcinoma: what should we know?

With the development of machine learning (ML) algorithms, a growing number of predictive models have been established for predicting the therapeutic outcome of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after various treatment modalities. By using the different combinations of clinical and radiological variables, ML algorithms can simulate human learning to detect hidden patterns within the data and play a critical role in artificial intelligence techniques. Compared to traditional statistical methods, ML methods have greater predictive effects. ML algorithms are widely applied in nearly all steps of model establishment, such as imaging feature extraction, predictive factor classification, and model development. Therefore, this review presents the literature pertaining to ML algorithms and aims to summarize the strengths and limitations of ML, as well as its potential value in prognostic prediction, after various treatment modalities for HCC.