Identifying mesopredator release in multi‐predator systems: a review of evidence from North America

Impacts of coyote colonization on coastal mammalian predators

Extreme ecosystem modification by humans has caused drastic reductions in populations and ranges of top mammalian predators, while simultaneously allowing synanthropic mesopredator species to expand. These conditions often result in inflated local densities of highly adaptable mesopredators that disrupt trophic dynamics and place unsustainable predation pressure on native prey populations. Colonization of a dominant predator may lead to top-down control of mesopredators and restore trophic balance. Coyotes are a novel colonizer of some coastal barrier islands of eastern North America, offering an opportunity to test how the addition of an apex predator impacts an established guild of mesopredators. To assess their trophic impact, we conducted 75,576 camera trapping hours over an 18-month study period, capturing > 1.5 million images across 108 coastal camera sites. Using two-species occupancy and habitat use models, we found sizeable effects of coyote habitat use on that of red foxes and free-ranging domestic cats, suggesting that coyotes function as apex predators in barrier island ecosystems. In fact, the only factor that determined the spatial pattern of highly ubiquitous red foxes was the sympatric habitat use of the largest carnivore in the food web-coyotes. That 'novel' apex predators can become established in coastal food webs illustrates the highly dynamic nature of conservation challenges for habitats and species at the edge of the sea.

Time for a paradigm shift? Small carnivores' sensitivity highlights the importance of monitoring mid-rank predators in future global change studies

Research Highlight: Jachowski, D. S., Marneweck, C. J., Olfenbuttel, C., & Harris, S. N. (2024). Support for the size-mediated sensitivity hypothesis within a diverse carnivore community. Journal of Animal Ecology, https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2656.13916. A current paradigm in ecological research suggests that top predators are suitable sentinel species to identify ecosystem dysfunctions and monitor the effects of climate change. However, the adequacy of top predators to systematically take this function may be mistakenly inferred or unintentionally conflated from the fact that these species are regarded as biodiversity indicators or keystone, umbrella and flagship species in most ecosystems. Regarding terrestrial mammalian carnivores (order Carnivora), some researchers recently suggested that the smaller species likely possess a higher sensitivity to environmental changes than large carnivores because of their biological attributes and their intermediate position in food webs. To test this hypothesis, Jachowski et al. (2024) used camera trapping followed by occupancy and structural equation modelling to explore the dynamics of a diverse carnivore community and the factors that influence them. Their results confirmed that small carnivores are more sensitive to habitat changes and are interconnected by a greater number of significant pathways compared with larger carnivores. This support for the size-mediated sensitivity hypothesis strengthens the proposition that small carnivores (and other mid-rank predators) are ideal sentinel species for monitoring the effects of the wide range of contemporary and future environmental changes. Time will tell whether this new 'middle-out ecology' paradigm will be considered in future global change studies.

Disease-driven top predator decline affects mesopredator population genomic structure

Top predator declines are pervasive and often have dramatic effects on ecological communities via changes in food web dynamics, but their evolutionary consequences are virtually unknown. Tasmania's top terrestrial predator, the Tasmanian devil, is declining due to a lethal transmissible cancer. Spotted-tailed quolls benefit via mesopredator release, and they alter their behaviour and resource use concomitant with devil declines and increased disease duration. Here, using a landscape community genomics framework to identify environmental drivers of population genomic structure and signatures of selection, we show that these biotic factors are consistently among the top variables explaining genomic structure of the quoll. Landscape resistance negatively correlates with devil density, suggesting that devil declines will increase quoll genetic subdivision over time, despite no change in quoll densities detected by camera trap studies. Devil density also contributes to signatures of selection in the quoll genome, including genes associated with muscle development and locomotion. Our results provide some of the first evidence of the evolutionary impacts of competition between a top predator and a mesopredator species in the context of a trophic cascade. As top predator declines are increasing globally, our framework can serve as a model for future studies of evolutionary impacts of altered ecological interactions.

Support for the size-mediated sensitivity hypothesis within a diverse carnivore community

Carnivore community dynamics are governed by a complex set of often interacting biotic, abiotic and anthropogenic factors that are increasingly volatile as a result of global change. Understanding how these changing conditions influence carnivore communities is urgent because of the important role carnivores play within ecosystems at multiple trophic levels, and the conservation threats that many carnivores face globally. While a great deal of research attention has historically been focused on large carnivores within ecosystems, the size-mediated sensitivity hypothesis has recently been proposed where the smallest carnivore in a system is likely to be the most responsive to the diverse suite of ongoing environmental and anthropogenic changes within ecological communities. We deployed camera traps at 197 sites over 4 years to monitor a diverse suite of mammalian carnivores within the Blue Ridge Mountains of western North Carolina and then used a two-step occupancy modelling-structural equation modelling framework to investigate the relative support for four primary hypothesized drivers (interspecific competition/predation, habitat complexity, food availability and anthropogenic disturbance) on carnivore occurrence. We found that each of the 10 carnivores in our system responded differently to conditions associated with each of these four hypothesized drivers, but that small and medium-sized carnivores had a greater number of significant (p < 0.05) pathways by which these conditions were influencing occupancy relative to large carnivores. In particular, the smallest carnivore observed in our study was the only species for which we found support for each of the four hypothesized drivers influencing occupancy. Collectively, our study supports the size-mediated sensitivity hypothesis and suggests that small carnivores are ideal sentinel species for global change. We echo recent calls for adopting a middle-out approach to investigations into carnivore community dynamics by refocusing sustained monitoring and research efforts on smaller carnivores within systems.

The distribution of bushmeat mammals in unflooded forests of the Central Amazon is influenced by poaching proxies

Medium to large rainforest mammals are key conservation flagship groups that offer non-redundant ecosystem functions, but anthropic pressures, such as illegal hunting, may strongly affect their occupancy in Amazonia. We combined camera traps and occupancy models to assess the influence of distance from human settlements, the number of families per settlement and the synergetic effect of the average weight of 27 species on the occupancy probability of mammals. Specifically, we classified mammal species according to the game preferences of hunters (i.e. a group of species depleted for bushmeat, a group of species hunted for retaliation and a group of non-hunted species). We also accounted for the influence on the detection probability of each group of both the number of days each camera operated and the body weight of mammals. The occupancy probability of the bushmeat group (i.e. deer, peccaries, agoutis, pacas and armadillos) was lower at locations closer to human settlements. Still, the number of families correlated positively with occupancy, with the occupancy probability of the group being slightly higher at sites with more families. This difference was probably due to larger and more abundant crops and fruiting trees attracting wildlife at such sites. Conversely, the occupancy probability of the retaliation group (i.e. carnivores) and the non-hunted group (i.e. opossums, spiny rats, squirrels and anteaters) were indifferent to anthropogenic stressors. The detection probability of the non-hunted and particularly the most depleted species correlated negatively with body weight. This may suggest that larger species, especially those from the bushmeat group, are rarer or less abundant in the system, possibly because they are the preferable target of hunters. In the long term, locals will likely need to travel long distances to find harvest meat. Poaching also threatens food security since game bushmeat is an essential source of protein for isolated rural Amazonians.

Interactions between carnivore species: limited spatiotemporal partitioning between apex predator and smaller carnivores in a Mediterranean protected area

BACKGROUND

There is need of information on ecological interactions that keystone species such as apex predators establish in ecosystems recently recolonised. Interactions among carnivore species have the potential to influence community-level processes, with consequences for ecosystem dynamics. Although avoidance of apex predators by smaller carnivores has been reported, there is increasing evidence that the potential for competitive-to-facilitative interactions is context-dependent. In a protected area recently recolonised by the wolf Canis lupus and hosting abundant wild prey (3 ungulate species, 20-30 individuals/km², together), we used 5-year food habit analyses and 3-year camera trapping to (i) investigate the role of mesocarnivores (4 species) in the wolf diet; (ii) test for temporal, spatial, and fine-scale spatiotemporal association between mesocarnivores and the wolf.

RESULTS

Wolf diet was dominated by large herbivores (86% occurrences, N = 2201 scats), with mesocarnivores occurring in 2% scats. We collected 12,808 carnivore detections over > 19,000 camera trapping days. We found substantial (i.e., generally ≥ 0.75, 0-1 scale) temporal overlap between mesocarnivores-in particular red fox-and the wolf, with no support for negative temporal or spatial associations between mesocarnivore and wolf detection rates. All the species were nocturnal/crepuscular and results suggested a minor role of human activity in modifying interspecific spatiotemporal partitioning.

CONCLUSIONS

Results suggest that the local great availability of large prey to wolves limited negative interactions towards smaller carnivores, thus reducing the potential for spatiotemporal avoidance. Our study emphasises that avoidance patterns leading to substantial spatiotemporal partitioning are not ubiquitous in carnivore guilds.

Context-dependency in carnivore co-occurrence across a multi-use conservation landscape

Carnivore intraguild dynamics depend on a complex interplay of environmental affinities and interspecific interactions. Context-dependency is commonly expected with varying suites of interacting species and environmental conditions but seldom empirically described. In South Africa, decentralized approaches to conservation and the resulting multi-tenure conservation landscapes have markedly altered the environmental stage that shapes the structure of local carnivore assemblages. We explored assemblage-wide patterns of carnivore spatial (residual occupancy probability) and temporal (diel activity overlap) co-occurrence across three adjacent wildlife-oriented management contexts-a provincial protected area, a private ecotourism reserve, and commercial game ranches. We found that carnivores were generally distributed independently across space, but existing spatial dependencies were context-specific. Spatial overlap was most common in the protected area, where species occur at higher relative abundances, and in game ranches, where predator persecution presumably narrows the scope for spatial asymmetries. In the private reserve, spatial co-occurrence patterns were more heterogeneous but did not follow a dominance hierarchy associated with higher apex predator densities. Pair-specific variability suggests that subordinate carnivores may alternate between pre-emptive behavioral strategies and fine-scale co-occurrence with dominant competitors. Consistency in species-pairs diel activity asynchrony suggested that temporal overlap patterns in our study areas mostly depend on species' endogenous clock rather than the local context. Collectively, our research highlights the complexity and context-dependency of guild-level implications of current management and conservation paradigms; specifically, the unheeded potential for interventions to influence the local network of carnivore interactions with unknown population-level and cascading effects.

Asymmetrical intraguild interactions with coyotes, red foxes, and domestic dogs may contribute to competitive exclusion of declining gray foxes

Species coexistence is governed by availability of resources and intraguild interactions including strategies to reduce ecological overlap. Gray foxes are dietary generalist mesopredators expected to benefit from anthropogenic disturbance, but populations have declined across the midwestern USA, including severe local extirpation rates coinciding with high coyote and domestic dog occurrence and low red fox occurrence. We used data from a large-scale camera trap survey in southern Illinois, USA to quantify intraguild spatial and temporal interactions among the canid guild including domestic dogs. We used a two-species co-occurrence model to make pairwise assessments of conditional occupancy and detection rates. We also estimated temporal activity overlap among species and fit a fixed-effects hierarchical community occupancy model with the four canid species. We partitioned the posterior distributions to compare gray fox occupancy probabilities conditional on estimated state of combinations of other species to assess support for hypothesized interactions. We found no evidence of broadscale avoidance among native canids and conclude that spatial and temporal segregation were limited by ubiquitous human disturbance. Mean guild richness was two canid species at a site and gray fox occupancy was greater when any combination of sympatric canids was also present, setting the stage for competitive exclusion over time. Domestic dogs may amplify competitive interactions by increasing canid guild size to the detriment of gray foxes. Our results suggest that while human activities can benefit some mesopredators, other species such as gray foxes may serve as bellwethers for habitat degradation with trophic downgrading and continued anthropogenic homogenization.

Modeling total predation to avoid perverse outcomes from cat control in a data-poor island ecosystem

Data hungry, complex ecosystem models are often used to predict the consequences of threatened species management, including perverse outcomes. Unfortunately, this approach is impractical in many systems, which have insufficient data to parameterize ecosystem interactions or reliably calibrate or validate such models. Here we demonstrate a different approach, using a minimum realistic model to guide decisions in data- and resource-scarce systems. We illustrate our approach with a case-study in an invaded ecosystem from Christmas Island, Australia, where there are concerns that cat eradication to protect native species, including the red-tailed tropicbird, could release meso-predation by invasive rats. We use biophysical constraints (metabolic demand) and observable parameters (e.g. prey preferences) to assess the combined cat and rat abundances which would threaten the tropicbird population. We find that the population of tropicbirds cannot be sustained if predated by 1607 rats (95% credible interval (CI) [103, 5910]) in the absence of cats, or 21 cats (95% CI [2, 82]) in the absence of rats. For every cat removed from the island, the bird's net population growth rate improves, provided that the rats do not increase by more than 77 individuals (95% CI [30, 174]). Thus, in this context, one cat is equivalent to 30-174 rats. Our methods are especially useful for on-the-ground predator control in the absence of knowledge of predator-predator interactions, to assess whether 1) the current abundance of predators threatens the prey population of interest, 2) managing one predator species alone is sufficient to protect the prey species given potential release of another predator, and 3) control of multiple predator species is needed to meet the conservation goal. Our approach demonstrates how to use limited information for maximum value in data-poor systems, by shifting the focus from predicting future trajectories, to identifying conditions which threaten the conservation goal. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Terrestrial mesopredators did not increase after top-predator removal in a large-scale experimental test of mesopredator release theory

Removal or loss of top-predators has been predicted to cause cascading negative effects for ecosystems, including mesopredator release. However, reliable evidence for these processes in terrestrial systems has been mixed and equivocal due, in large part, to the systemic and continued use of low-inference study designs to investigate this issue. Even previous large-scale manipulative experiments of strong inferential value have been limited by experimental design features (i.e. failure to prevent migration between treatments) that constrain possible inferences about the presence or absence of mesopredator release effects. Here, we build on these previous strong-inference experiments and report the outcomes of additional large-scale manipulative experiments to eradicate Australian dingoes from two fenced areas where dingo migration was restricted and where theory would predict an increase in extant European red foxes, feral cats and goannas. We demonstrate the removal and suppression of dingoes to undetectable levels over 4–5 years with no corresponding increases in mesopredator relative abundances, which remained low and stable throughout the experiment at both sites. We further demonstrate widespread absence of negative relationships between predators, indicating that the mechanism underpinning predicted mesopredator releases was not present. Our results are consistent with all previous large-scale manipulative experiments and long-term mensurative studies which collectively demonstrate that (1) dingoes do not suppress red foxes, feral cats or goannas at the population level, (2) repeated, temporary suppression of dingoes in open systems does not create mesopredator release effects, and (3) removal and sustained suppression of dingoes to undetectable levels in closed systems does not create mesopredator release effects either. Our experiments add to similar reports from North America, Asia, Europe and southern Africa which indicate that not only is there a widespread absence of reliable evidence for these processes, but there is also a large and continually growing body of experimental evidence of absence for these processes in many terrestrial systems. We conclude that although sympatric predators may interact negatively with each other on smaller spatiotemporal scales, that these negative interactions do not always scale-up to the population level, nor are they always strong enough to create mesopredator suppression or release effects.

Lethal interactions among forest-grouse predators are numerous, motivated by hunger and carcasses, and their impacts determined by the demographic value of the victims

New vertebrate communities are emerging in Europe following the recovery of multiple native predators to highly anthropized landscapes where predator control is still prevalent. While the lack of reference points for these communities creates novel challenges for conservationists and wildlife managers, they also provide opportunities to further our understanding of species interactions. Despite a growing body of evidence, many aspects of interactions among predators remain poorly understood, impairing our ability to anticipate the effects of such changes in predator communities. Through a systematic literature review, we gathered all the available evidence concerning the existence, strength, and demographic impacts of lethal predator interactions among forest-grouse predators in Europe. We found a highly interconnected predator community, with 44 pairwise lethal interactions among 12 taxa. Three of these resulted in some degree of population suppression of the victim, while another three did not. However, most interactions (38) have not been evaluated for population suppression. Additionally, we highlight how predators interact simultaneously with a large range of other predators and identified at least two further taxa possibly suppressed through the combined impacts of multiple predators. We propose that interactions causing demographic suppression are characterized by impacts on individuals with high survival elasticity and that they are motivated by food limitation and additionally, in mammals, by competition for carcasses. Predator interactions, and our still poor understanding of them, introduce large uncertainties to conservation actions based on the management of predator abundances, which should be carefully evaluated.

An apex carnivore's life history mediates a predator cascade

Apex predators can shape communities via cascading top-down effects, but the degree to which such effects depend on predator life history traits is largely unknown. Within carnivore guilds, complex hierarchies of dominance facilitate coexistence, whereby subordinate species avoid dominant counterparts by partitioning space, time, or both. We investigated whether a major life history trait (hibernation) in an apex carnivore (black bears Ursus americanus) mediated its top-down effects on the spatio-temporal dynamics of three sympatric mesocarnivore species (coyotes Canis latrans, bobcats Lynx rufus, and gray foxes Urocyon cinereoargenteus) across a 15,000 km² landscape in the western USA. We compared top-down, bottom-up, and environmental effects on these mesocarnivores using an integrated modeling approach. Black bears exerted top-down effects that varied as a function of hibernation and were stronger than bottom-up or environmental impacts. High black bear activity in summer and fall appeared to buffer the most subordinate mesocarnivore (gray foxes) from competition with dominant mesocarnivores (coyotes and bobcats), which were in turn released by black bear hibernation in winter and early spring. The mesocarnivore responses occurred in space (i.e., altered occupancy and site visitation intensity) rather than time (i.e., diel activity patterns unaffected). These results suggest that the spatio-temporal dynamics of mesocarnivores in this system were principally shaped by a spatial predator cascade of interference competition mediated by black bear hibernation. Thus, certain life history traits of apex predators might facilitate coexistence among competing species over broad time scales, with complex implications for lower trophic levels.