Modelling the spatial distribution of selected North American woodland mammals under future climate scenarios

Genomic and Phenotypic Adaptations of Rattus tanezumi to Cold Limit Its Further Northward Expansion and Range Overlap with R. norvegicus

Global climate change has led to shifts in the distribution ranges of many terrestrial species, promoting their migration from lower altitudes or latitudes to higher ones. Meanwhile, successful invaders have developed genetic adaptations enabling the colonization of new environments. Over the past 40 years, Rattus tanezumi (RT) has expanded into northern China (Northwest and North China) from its southern origins. We studied the cold adaptation of RT and its potential for northward expansion by comparing it with sympatric Rattus norvegicus (RN), which is well adapted to cold regions. Through population genomic analysis, we revealed that the invading RT rats have split into three distinct populations: the North, Northwest, and Tibetan populations. The first two populations exhibited high genetic diversity, while the latter population showed remarkably low genetic diversity. These rats have developed various genetic adaptations to cold, arid, hypoxic, and high-UV conditions. Cold acclimation tests revealed divergent thermoregulation between RT and RN. Specifically, RT exhibited higher brown adipose tissue activity and metabolic rates than did RN. Transcriptome analysis highlighted changes in genes regulating triglyceride catabolic processes in RT, including Apoa1 and Apoa4, which were upregulated, under selection and associated with local adaptation. In contrast, RN showed changes in carbohydrate metabolism genes. Despite the cold adaptation of RT, we observed genotypic and phenotypic constraints that may limit its ability to cope with severe low temperatures farther north. Consequently, it is less likely that RT rats will invade and overlap with RN rats in farther northern regions.

Application of MaxEnt modeling to evaluate the climate change effects on the geographic distribution of Lippia javanica (Burm.f.) Spreng in Africa

Lippia javanica is a typical indigenous plant species mostly found in the higher elevation or mountainous regions in southern, central, and eastern Africa. The ongoing utilization of the species for ethnobotanical applications and traditional uses, coupled with the changing climate, increases the risk of a potential reduction in its geographic distribution range in the region. Herein, we utilized the MaxEnt species distribution modelling to build the L. javanica distribution models in tropical and subtropical African regions for current and future climates. The MaxEnt models were calibrated and fitted using 286 occurrence records and six environmental variables. Temperatures, including temperature seasonality [Bio 4] and the maximum temperature of the warmest month [Bio 5], were observed to be the most significant determinants of L. javanica's distribution. The current projected range for L. javanica was estimated to be 2,118,457 km2. Future model predictions indicated that L. javanica may increase its geographic distribution in western areas of the continent and regions around the equator; however, much of the geographic range in southern Africa may shift southwards, causing the species to lose portions of the northern limits of the habitat range. These current findings can help increase the conservation of L. javanica and other species and combat localized species loss induced by climate change and human pressure. We also emphasize the importance of more investigations and enhanced surveillance of traditionally used plant species in regions that are acutely susceptible to climate change.

Fatty acid metabolism decreased while sexual selection increased in brown rats spreading south

For mammals that originate in the cold north, adapting to warmer environments is crucial for southwards invasion. The brown rat (Rattus norvegicus) originated in Northeast China and has become a global pest. R. n. humiliatus (RNH) spread from the northeast, where R. n. caraco (RNC) lives, to North China and diverged to form a subspecies. Genomic analyses revealed that subspecies differentiation was promoted by temperature but impeded by gene flow and that genes related to fatty acid metabolism were under the strongest selection. Transcriptome analyses revealed downregulated hepatic genes related to fatty acid metabolism and upregulated those related to pheromones in RNH vs. RNC. Similar patterns were observed in relation to cold/warm acclimation. RNH preferred mates with stronger pheromone signals intra-populationally and more genetic divergence inter-populationally. We concluded that RNH experienced reduced fat utilization and increased pheromone-mediated sexual selection during its invasion from the cold north to warm south.

Climate Change and Human Activities, the Significant Dynamic Drivers of Himalayan Goral Distribution (Naemorhedus goral)

The distribution of large ungulates is more often negatively impacted by the changing climate, especially global warming and species with limited distributional zones. While developing conservation action plans for the threatened species such as the Himalayan goral (Naemorhedus goral Hardwicke 1825; a mountain goat that mostly inhabits rocky cliffs), it is imperative to comprehend how future distributions might vary based on predicted climate change. In this work, MaxEnt modeling was employed to assess the habitat suitability of the target species under varying climate scenarios. Such studies have provided highly useful information but to date no such research work has been conducted that considers this endemic animal species of the Himalayas. A total of 81 species presence points, 19 bioclimatic and 3 topographic variables were employed in the species distribution modeling (SDM), and MaxEnt calibration and optimization were performed to select the best candidate model. For predicted climate scenarios, the future data is drawn from SSPs 245 and SSPs 585 of the 2050s and 2070s. Out of total 20 variables, annual precipitation, elevation, precipitation of driest month, slope aspect, minimum temperature of coldest month, slope, precipitation of warmest quarter, and temperature annual range (in order) were detected as the most influential drivers. A high accuracy value (AUC-ROC > 0.9) was observed for all the predicted scenarios. The habitat suitability of the targeted species might expand (about 3.7 to 13%) under all the future climate change scenarios. The same is evident according to local residents as species which are locally considered extinct in most of the area, might be shifting northwards along the elevation gradient away from human settlements. This study recommends additional research is conducted to prevent potential population collapses, and to identify other possible causes of local extinction events. Our findings will aid in formulating conservation plans for the Himalayan goral in a changing climate and serve as a basis for future monitoring of the species.