Identifying refugia from climate change using coupled ecological and genetic data in a transitional Mediterranean-temperate tree species

Dramatic impact of future climate change on the genetic diversity and distribution of ecologically relevant Western Mediterranean Carex (Cyperaceae)

Anticipating the evolutionary responses of species to ongoing climate change is essential to propose effective management and conservation measures. The Western Mediterranean Basin constitutes one of the hotspots of biodiversity where the effects of climate change are expected to be more dramatic. Plant species with ecological relevance constitute ideal models to evaluate and predict the impact of climate change on ecosystems. Here we investigate these impacts through the spatio-temporal comparison of genetic diversity/structure (AFLPs), potential distribution under different future scenarios of climate change, and ecological space in two Western Mediterranean sister species of genus Carex. Both species are ecologically key in their riparian habitats, but display contrasting distribution patterns, with one widespread in the Iberian Peninsula and North Africa (C. reuteriana), while the other (C. panormitana) is a restricted, probably endangered, Central Mediterranean endemic. At present, we found a strong genetic structure driven by geography in both species, and lower values of genetic diversity and a narrower ecological space in C. panormitana than in C. reuteriana, while the allelic rarity was higher in the former than in C. reuteriana subspecies. Future projections predict an overall dramatic reduction of suitable areas for both species under all climate change scenarios, which could be almost total for C. panormitana. In addition, gene diversity was inferred to decrease in all taxa, with genetic structure reinforcing in C. reuteriana by the loss of admixture among populations. Our findings stress the need for a reassessment of C. panormitana conservation status under IUCN Red List criteria and the implementation of conservation measures.

Ecosystem services provision by Mediterranean forests will be compromised above 2℃ warming

Forests provide a wide range of provisioning, regulating and cultural services of great value to societies across the Mediterranean basin. In this study, we reviewed the scientific literature of the last 30 years to quantify the magnitude of projected changes in ecosystem services provision by Mediterranean forests under IPCC climate change scenarios. We classified the scenarios according to the temperature threshold of 2℃ set by the Paris Agreement (below or above). The review of 78 studies shows that climate change will lead to a general reduction in the provision of regulating services (e.g. carbon storage, regulation of freshwater quantity and quality) and a general increase in the number of fires, burnt areas and generally, an increase in climate-related forest hazards (median + 62% by 2100). Studies using scenarios above the 2℃ threshold projected significantly more negative changes in regulating services than studies using scenarios below this threshold. Main projected trend changes on material services (e.g. wood products), were less clear and depended on (i) whether or not the studies considered the interaction between the rise in temperatures and other drivers (e.g. forest management, CO₂ fertilization) and (ii) differences in productivity responses across the tree species evaluated. Overall, the reviewed studies projected significant reductions in range extent and habitat suitability for the most drought-sensitive forest species (e.g. -88% Fagus sylvatica), while the amount of habitat available for more drought-tolerant species will remain stable or increase; however, the magnitude of projected change for these more xeric species was limited when high-end extreme climatic scenarios were considered (above Paris Agreement). Our review highlights the benefits that climate change mitigation (to keep global mean temperature increase <2℃) can bring in terms of service provision and conservation of Mediterranean forests.

Candidate gene SNP variation in floodplain populations of pedunculate oak (Quercus robur L.) near the species' southern range margin: Weak differentiation yet distinct associations with water availability

Populations residing near species' low-latitude range margins (LLMs) often occur in warmer and drier environments than those in the core range. Thus, their genetic composition could be shaped by climatic drivers that differ from those occurring at higher latitudes, resulting in potentially adaptive variants of conservation value. Such variants could facilitate the adaptation of populations from other portions of the geographical range to similar future conditions anticipated under ongoing climate change. However, very few studies have assessed standing genetic variation at potentially adaptive loci in natural LLM populations. We investigated standing genetic variation at single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) located within 117 candidate genes and its links to putative climatic selection pressures across 19 pedunculate oak (Quercus robur L.) populations distributed along a regional climatic gradient near the species' southern range margin in southeastern Europe. These populations are restricted to floodplain forests along large lowland rivers, whose hydric regime is undergoing significant shifts under modern rapid climate change. The populations showed very weak geographical structure, suggesting extensive genetic connectivity and gene flow or shared ancestry. We identified eight (6.2%) positive F_ST -outlier loci, and genotype-environment association analyses revealed consistent associations between SNP allele frequencies and several climatic variables linked to water availability. A total of 61 associations involving 37 SNPs (28.5%) from 35 annotated genes provided important insights into putative functional mechanisms in our system. Our findings provide empirical support for the role of LLM populations as sources of potentially adaptive variation that could enhance species' resilience to climate change-related pressures.

Quaternary history, population genetic structure and diversity of the cold-adapted Alpine newt Ichthyosaura alpestris in peninsular Italy

Mediterranean peninsulas are major biodiversity hotspots, and cold-adapted species are an important component of this biodiversity. However, cold-adapted species contributed surprisingly little to our knowledge of the intimate links between Quaternary environmental changes, species' responses to these changes, and current patterns of intraspecific biodiversity. Here, we investigated the genetic structure and evolutionary history of a cold-adapted amphibian, the Alpine newt Ichthyosaura alpestris, within the Italian peninsula. Nuclear and mitochondrial markers consistently identified three distinct genetic lineages, whose divergence dates to the Early Pleistocene (1.9 and 0.8 million years ago). Our results show that the Italian peninsula provided multiple Pleistocene refugia to this cold-adapted species, and suggest that allopatric fragmentation followed by secondary admixture have been key events in the formation of its current pattern of genetic diversity. Indeed, estimates of population genetic diversity clearly identified contact populations as those achieving the highest levels of diversity. Such concordance among cold-adapted and temperate species in terms of processes triggering the formation of regional patterns of genetic diversity provides strong support for the hypothesis that gene exchange between divergent lineages, rather than long-term stability of refugial populations, has been the main step toward the formation of hotspots of intraspecific biodiversity.

Ecotypes of an ecologically dominant prairie grass (Andropogon gerardii) exhibit genetic divergence across the U.S. Midwest grasslands' environmental gradient

Big bluestem (Andropogon gerardii) is an ecologically dominant grass with wide distribution across the environmental gradient of U.S. Midwest grasslands. This system offers an ideal natural laboratory to study population divergence and adaptation in spatially varying climates. Objectives were to: (i) characterize neutral genetic diversity and structure within and among three regional ecotypes derived from 11 prairies across the U.S. Midwest environmental gradient, (ii) distinguish between the relative roles of isolation by distance (IBD) vs. isolation by environment (IBE) on ecotype divergence, (iii) identify outlier loci under selection and (iv) assess the association between outlier loci and climate. Using two primer sets, we genotyped 378 plants at 384 polymorphic AFLP loci across regional ecotypes from central and eastern Kansas and Illinois. Neighbour-joining tree and PCoA revealed strong genetic differentiation between Kansas and Illinois ecotypes, which was better explained by IBE than IBD. We found high genetic variability within prairies (80%) and even fragmented Illinois prairies, surprisingly, contained high within-prairie genetic diversity (92%). Using Bayenv2, 14 top-ranked outlier loci among ecotypes were associated with temperature and precipitation variables. Six of seven BayeScanFST outliers were in common with Bayenv2 outliers. High genetic diversity may enable big bluestem populations to better withstand changing climates; however, population divergence supports the use of local ecotypes in grassland restoration. Knowledge of genetic variation in this ecological dominant and other grassland species will be critical to understanding grassland response and restoration challenges in the face of a changing climate.

The phylogeography of Eurasian Fraxinus species reveals ancient transcontinental reticulation

To investigate the biogeographical history of ashes species of the Eurasian section Fraxinus and to test the hypothesis of ancient reticulations, we sequenced nuclear DNA (nETS and nITS, 1075 bp) for 533 samples and scored AFLP for 63 samples of Eurasian ashes within the section Fraxinus. The nITS phylogeny retrieved the classical view of the evolution of the section, whereas nETS phylogeny indicated an unexpected separation of F. angustifolia in two paraphyletic groups, respectively found in southeastern Europe and in the other parts of the Mediterranean basin. In the nETS phylogeny, the former group was closely related to F. excelsior, whereas the later was closely related to F. mandshurica, a species which is restricted nowadays to northeastern Asia. This topological incongruence between the two loci indicated the occurrence of an ancient reticulation between European and Asian ash species. Several other ancient reticulation events between the two European species and the other species of the section were supported by the posterior predictive checking method. Some of these reticulation events would have occurred during the Miocene, when climatic variations may have lead these species to expand their distribution range and come into contact. The recurrent reticulations observed among Eurasian ash species indicate that they should be considered as conspecific taxa, with subspecific status for some groups. Altogether, the results of the present study provide a rare documented evidence for the occurrence of multiple ancient reticulations within a group of temperate tree taxa with modern disjunct distributions in Eurasia. These ancient reticulation events indicate that the speciation process is slow in ashes, necessitating long periods of geographical isolation. The implications for speciation processes in temperate trees with similar life history and reproductive biology are discussed.