Shift of grey seal subspecies boundaries in response to climate, culling and conservation

120-years of ecological monitoring data shows that the risk of overhunting is increased by environmental degradation for an isolated marine mammal population: The Baltic grey seal

The Baltic Sea is home to a genetically isolated and morphologically distinct grey seal population. This population has been the subject of 120-years of careful documentation, from detailed records of bounty statistics to annual monitoring of health and abundance. It has also been exposed to a range of well-documented stressors, including hunting, pollution and climate change. To investigate the vulnerability of marine mammal populations to multiple stressors, data series relating to the Baltic grey seal population size, hunt and health were compiled, vital demographic rates were estimated, and a detailed population model was constructed. The Baltic grey seal population fell from approximately 90,000 to as few as 3000 individuals during the 1900s as the result of hunting and pollution. Subsequently, the population has recovered to approximately 55,000 individuals. Fertility levels for mature females have increased from 9% in the 1970s to 86% at present. The recovery of the population has led to demands for increased hunting, resulting in a sudden increase in annual quotas from a few hundred to 3550 in 2020. Simultaneously, environmental changes, such as warmer winters and reduced prey availability due to overfishing, are likely impacting fecundity and health. Future population development is projected for a range of hunting and environmental stress scenarios, illustrating how hunting, in combination with environmental degradation, can lead to population collapse. The current combined hunting quotas of all Baltic Nations caused a 10% population decline within three generations in 100% of simulations. To enable continued recovery of the population, combined annual quotas of less than 1900 are needed, although this quota should be re-evaluated annually as monitoring of population size and seal health continues. Sustainable management of long-lived slowly growing species requires an understanding of the drivers of population growth and the repercussions of management decisions over many decades. The case of the Baltic grey seal illustrates how long-term ecological time series are pivotal in establishing historical baselines in population abundance and demography to inform sustainable management.

Loss of species and genetic diversity during colonization: Insights from acanthocephalan parasites in northern European seals

Studies on host-parasite systems that have experienced distributional shifts, range fragmentation, and population declines in the past can provide information regarding how parasite community richness and genetic diversity will change as a result of anthropogenic environmental changes in the future. Here, we studied how sequential postglacial colonization, shifts in habitat, and reduced host population sizes have influenced species richness and genetic diversity of Corynosoma (Acanthocephala: Polymorphidae) parasites in northern European marine, brackish, and freshwater seal populations. We collected Corynosoma population samples from Arctic, Baltic, Ladoga, and Saimaa ringed seal subspecies and Baltic gray seals, and then applied COI barcoding and triple-enzyme restriction-site associated DNA (3RAD) sequencing to delimit species, clarify their distributions and community structures, and elucidate patterns of intraspecific gene flow and genetic diversity. Our results showed that Corynosoma species diversity reflected host colonization histories and population sizes, with four species being present in the Arctic, three in the Baltic Sea, two in Lake Ladoga, and only one in Lake Saimaa. We found statistically significant population-genetic differentiation within all three Corynosoma species that occur in more than one seal (sub)species. Genetic diversity tended to be high in Corynosoma populations originating from Arctic ringed seals and low in the landlocked populations. Our results indicate that acanthocephalan communities in landlocked seal populations are impoverished with respect to both species and intraspecific genetic diversity. Interestingly, the loss of genetic diversity within Corynosoma species seems to have been less drastic than in their seal hosts, possibly due to their large local effective population sizes resulting from high infection intensities and effective intra-host population mixing. Our study highlights the utility of genomic methods in investigations of community composition and genetic diversity of understudied parasites.

Screening for Influenza and Morbillivirus in Seals and Porpoises in the Baltic and North Sea

Historically, the seals and harbour porpoises of the Baltic Sea and North Sea have been subjected to hunting, chemical pollutants and repeated mass mortalities, leading to significant population fluctuations. Despite the conservation implications and the zoonotic potential associated with viral disease outbreaks in wildlife, limited information is available on the circulation of viral pathogens in Baltic Sea seals and harbour porpoises. Here, we investigated the presence of the influenza A virus (IAV), the phocine distemper virus (PDV) and the cetacean morbillivirus (CeMV) in tracheal swabs and lung tissue samples from 99 harbour seals, 126 grey seals, 73 ringed seals and 78 harbour porpoises collected in the Baltic Sea and North Sea between 2002–2019. Despite screening 376 marine mammals collected over nearly two decades, we only detected one case of PDV and two cases of IAV linked to the documented viral outbreaks in seals in 2002 and 2014, respectively. Although we find no evidence of PDV and IAV during intermediate years, reports of isolated cases of PDV in North Sea harbour seals and IAV (H5N8) in Baltic and North Sea grey seals suggest introductions of those pathogens within the sampling period. Thus, to aid future monitoring efforts we highlight the need for a standardized and continuous sample collection of swabs, tissue and blood samples across Baltic Sea countries.

Variation of blubber thickness for three marine mammal species in the southern Baltic Sea

Evaluating populational trends of health condition has become an important topic for marine mammal populations under the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD). In the Baltic Sea, under the recommendation of Helsinki Commission (HELCOM), efforts have been undertaken to use blubber thickness as an indicator of energy reserves in marine mammals. Current values lack geographical representation from the entire Baltic Sea area and a large dataset is only available for grey seals (Halichoerus grypus) from Sweden and Finland. Knowledge on variation of blubber thickness related to geography throughout the Baltic Sea is important for its usage as an indicator. Such evaluation can provide important information about the energy reserves, and hence, food availability. It is expected that methodological standardization under HELCOM should include relevant datasets with good geographical coverage that can also account for natural variability in the resident marine mammal populations. In this study, seasonal and temporal trends of blubber thickness were evaluated for three marine mammal species-harbor seal (Phoca vitulina), grey seal (Halichoerus grypus) and harbor porpoise (Phocoena phocoena)-resident in the southern Baltic Sea collected and investigated under stranding networks. Additionally, the effects of age, season and sex were analyzed. Seasonal variation of blubber thickness was evident for all species, with harbor seals presenting more pronounced effects in adults and grey seals and harbor porpoises presenting more pronounced effects in juveniles. For harbor seals and porpoises, fluctuations were present over the years included in the analysis. In the seal species, blubber thickness values were generally higher in males. In harbor seals and porpoises, blubber thickness values differed between the age classes: while adult harbor seals displayed thicker blubber layers than juveniles, the opposite was observed for harbor porpoises. Furthermore, while an important initial screening tool, blubber thickness assessment cannot be considered a valid methodology for overall health assessment in marine mammals and should be complemented with data on specific health parameters developed for each species.

Forecasting shifts in habitat suitability of three marine predators suggests a rapid decline in inter‐specific overlap under future climate change

Understanding how environmental and climate change can alter habitat overlap of marine predators has great value for the management and conservation of marine ecosystems. Here, we estimated spatiotemporal changes in habitat suitability and inter‐specific overlap among three marine predators: Baltic gray seals (Halichoerus grypus), harbor seals (Phoca vitulina), and harbor porpoises (Phocoena phocoena) under contemporary and future conditions. Location data (>200 tagged individuals) were collected in the southwestern region of the Baltic Sea; one of the fastest‐warming semi‐enclosed seas in the world. We used the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) algorithm to estimate changes in total area size and overlap of species‐specific habitat suitability between 1997–2020 and 2091–2100. Predictor variables included environmental and climate‐sensitive oceanographic conditions in the area. Sea‐level rise, sea surface temperature, and salinity data were taken from representative concentration pathways [RCPs] scenarios 6.0 and 8.5 to forecast potential climate change effects. Model output suggested that habitat suitability of Baltic gray seals will decline over space and time, driven by changes in sea surface salinity and a loss of currently available haulout sites following sea‐level rise in the future. A similar, although weaker, effect was observed for harbor seals, while suitability of habitat for harbor porpoises was predicted to increase slightly over space and time. Inter‐specific overlap in highly suitable habitats was also predicted to increase slightly under RCP scenario 6.0 when compared to contemporary conditions, but to disappear under RCP scenario 8.5. Our study suggests that marine predators in the southwestern Baltic Sea may respond differently to future climatic conditions, leading to divergent shifts in habitat suitability that are likely to decrease inter‐specific overlap over time and space. We conclude that climate change can lead to a marked redistribution of area use by marine predators in the region, which may influence local food‐web dynamics and ecosystem functioning.

Range-wide variation in grey seal (Halichoerus grypus) skull morphology

The large interspecific variation in marine mammal skull and dental morphology reflects ecological specialisations to foraging and communication. At the intraspecific level, the drivers of skull shape variation are less well understood, having implications for identifying putative local foraging adaptations and delineating populations and subspecies for taxonomy, systematics, management and conservation. Here, we assess the range-wide intraspecific variation in 71 grey seal skulls by 3D surface scanning, collection of cranial landmarks and geometric morphometric analysis. We find that skull shape differs slightly between populations in the Northwest Atlantic, Northeast Atlantic and Baltic Sea. However, there was a large shape overlap between populations and variation was substantially larger among animals within populations than between. We hypothesize that this pattern of intraspecific variation in grey seal skull shape results from balancing selection or phenotypic plasticity allowing for a remarkably generalist foraging behaviour. Moreover, the large overlap in skull shape between populations implies that the separate subspecies status of Atlantic and Baltic Sea grey seals is questionable from a morphological point of view.

Origin and expansion of the world's most widespread pinniped: range-wide population genomics of the harbour seal (Phoca vitulina)

The harbour seal (Phoca vitulina) is the most widely distributed pinniped, occupying a wide variety of habitats and climatic zones across the Northern Hemisphere. Intriguingly, the harbour seal is also one of the most philopatric seals, raising questions as to how it colonised virtually the whole of the Northern Hemisphere. To shed light on the origin, remarkable range expansion, population structure and genetic diversity of this species, we used genotyping-by-sequencing to analyse ~13,500 biallelic SNPs from 286 individuals sampled from 22 localities across the species' range. Our results point to a Northeast Pacific origin, colonisation of the North Atlantic via the Canadian Arctic, and subsequent stepping-stone range expansions across the North Atlantic from North America to Europe, accompanied by a successive loss of genetic diversity. Our analyses further revealed a deep divergence between modern North Pacific and North Atlantic harbour seals, with finer-scale genetic structure at regional and local scales consistent with strong philopatry. The study provides new insights into the harbour seal's remarkable ability to colonise and adapt to a wide range of habitats. Furthermore, it has implications for current harbour seal subspecies delineations and highlights the need for international and national red lists and management plans to ensure the protection of genetically and demographically isolated populations.

Influence of environmental variation on spatial distribution and habitat-use in a benthic foraging marine predator

The highly dynamic nature of the marine environment can have a substantial influence on the foraging behaviour and spatial distribution of marine predators, particularly in pelagic marine systems. However, knowledge of the susceptibility of benthic marine predators to environmental variability is limited. This study investigated the influence of local-scale environmental conditions and large-scale climate indices on the spatial distribution and habitat use in the benthic foraging Australian fur seal (Arctocephalus pusillus doriferus; AUFS). Female AUFS provisioning pups were instrumented with GPS or ARGOS platform terminal transmitter tags during the austral winters of 2001-2019 at Kanowna Island, south-eastern Australia. Individuals were most susceptible to changes in the Southern Oscillation Index that measures the strength of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, with larger foraging ranges, greater distances travelled and more dispersed movement associated with 1-yr lagged La Niña-like conditions. Additionally, the total distance travelled was negatively correlated with the current year sea surface temperature and 1-yr lagged Indian Ocean Dipole, and positively correlated with 1-yr lagged chlorophyll-a concentration. These results suggest that environmental variation may influence the spatial distribution and availability of prey, even within benthic marine systems.

Census data aggregation decisions can affect population-level inference in heterogeneous populations

Conservation and population management decisions often rely on population models parameterized using census data. However, the sampling regime, precision, sample size, and methods used to collect census data are usually heterogeneous in time and space. Decisions about how to derive population-wide estimates from this patchwork of data are complicated and may bias estimated population dynamics, with important implications for subsequent management decisions.Here, we explore the impact of site selection and data aggregation decisions on pup survival estimates, and downstream estimates derived from parameterized matrix population models (MPMs), using a long-term dataset on grey seal (Halichoerus grypus) pup survival from southwestern Wales. The spatiotemporal and methodological heterogeneity of the data are fairly typical for ecological census data and it is, therefore, a good model to address this topic.Data were collected from 46 sampling locations (sites) over 25 years, and we explore the impact of data handling decisions by varying how years and sampling locations are combined to parameterize pup survival in population-level MPMs. We focus on pup survival because abundant high-quality data are available on this developmental stage.We found that survival probability was highly variable with most variation being at the site level, and poorly correlated among sampling sites. This variation could generate marked differences in predicted population dynamics depending on sampling strategy. The sample size required for a confident survival estimate also varied markedly geographically.We conclude that for populations with highly variable vital rates among sub-populations, site selection and data aggregation methods are important. In particular, including peripheral or less frequently used areas can introduce substantial variation into population estimates. This is likely to be context-dependent, but these choices, including the use of appropriate weights when summarizing across sampling areas, should be explored to ensure that management actions are successful.

Host records and geographical distribution of Corynosoma magdaleni, C. semerme and C. strumosum (Acanthocephala: Polymorphidae)

A literature survey was conducted to investigate the host and geographical distribution patterns of three Corynosoma species (Acanthocephala: Polymorphidae), viz. C.magdaleni, C.semerme and C.strumosum. All three species appear to be restricted to the Northern Hemisphere. Occurrence records of C.magdaleni are limited to the Northern Atlantic coasts, while C.semerme has a circumpolar distribution. The geographical range of Corynosomastrumosum encompasses the distributions of the other two species, but also extends into warmer southern regions. Some Corynosoma populations are living with their definitive hosts in very isolated locations, such as in the brackish Baltic Sea or different freshwater lakes (e.g. Lake Saimaa). All three species have a heteroxenous life cycle, comprising a peracaridan intermediate host, a fish paratenic host and a mammalian definitive host. Occasionally, an acanthocephalan may enter an accidental host, from which it is unable to complete its life cycle. The host records reported here are categorised by type, i.e. intermediate, paratenic, definitive or accidental. While most of the definitive hosts are shared amongst the three Corynosoma species, C.strumosum showed the broadest range of paratenic hosts, which reflects its more extensive geographical distribution. One aim of this study and extensive literature summary is to guide future sampling efforts and therewith contribute to throw more light on the on-going species and morphotype discussion for this interesting parasite species.

Dental pulp exposure, periapical inflammation and suppurative osteomyelitis of the jaws in juvenile Baltic grey seals (Halichoerus grypus grypus) from the late 19th century

The systematic analysis of museum collections can provide important insights into the dental and skeletal pathology of wild mammals. Here we present a previously unreported type of dental defect and related skull pathology in five juvenile Baltic grey seals that had been collected in the course of a seal culling program along the Danish coast in 1889 and 1890. All five skulls exhibited openings into the pulp cavities at the crown tips of all (four animals) or two (one animal) canines as well as several incisors and (in one animal) also some anterior premolars. The affected teeth showed wide pulp cavities and thin dentin. Pulp exposure had caused infection, inflammation, and finally necrosis of the pulp. As was evidenced by the extensive radiolucency around the roots of the affected teeth, the inflammation had extended from the pulp into the periapical space, leading to apical periodontitis with extensive bone resorption. Further spreading of the inflammation into the surrounding bone regions had then caused suppurative osteomyelitis of the jaws. The postcanine teeth of the pathological individuals typically had dentin of normal thickness and, except for one specimen, did not exhibit pulp exposure. The condition may have been caused by a late onset of secondary and tertiary dentin formation that led to pulp exposure in anterior teeth exposed to intense wear. Future investigations could address a possible genetic causation of the condition in the studied grey seals.

Reduced representation sequencing detects only subtle regional structure in a heavily exploited and rapidly recolonizing marine mammal species

Next-generation reduced representation sequencing (RRS) approaches show great potential for resolving the structure of wild populations. However, the population structure of species that have shown rapid demographic recovery following severe population bottlenecks may still prove difficult to resolve due to high gene flow between subpopulations. Here, we tested the effectiveness of the RRS method Genotyping-By-Sequencing (GBS) for describing the population structure of the New Zealand fur seal (NZFS, Arctocephalus forsteri), a species that was heavily exploited by the 19th century commercial sealing industry and has since rapidly recolonized most of its former range from a few isolated colonies. Using 26,026 neutral single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), we assessed genetic variation within and between NZFS colonies. We identified low levels of population differentiation across the species range (<1% of variation explained by regional differences) suggesting a state of near panmixia. Nonetheless, we observed subtle population substructure between West Coast and Southern East Coast colonies and a weak, but significant (p = 0.01), isolation-by-distance pattern among the eight colonies studied. Furthermore, our demographic reconstructions supported severe bottlenecks with potential 10-fold and 250-fold declines in response to Polynesian and European hunting, respectively. Finally, we were able to assign individuals treated as unknowns to their regions of origin with high confidence (96%) using our SNP data. Our results indicate that while it may be difficult to detect population structure in species that have experienced rapid recovery, next-generation markers and methods are powerful tools for resolving fine-scale structure and informing conservation and management efforts.

Ancient DNA reveals the chronology of walrus ivory trade from Norse Greenland

The importance of the Atlantic walrus ivory trade for the colonization, peak, and collapse of the medieval Norse colonies on Greenland has been extensively debated. Nevertheless, no studies have directly traced medieval European ivory back to distinct Arctic populations of walrus. Analysing the entire mitogenomes of 37 archaeological specimens from Europe, Svalbard, and Greenland, we here discover that Atlantic walrus comprises two monophyletic mitochondrial (MT) clades, which diverged between 23 400 and 251 120 years ago. Our improved genomic resolution allows us to reinterpret the geographical distribution of partial MT data from 306 modern and nineteenth-century specimens, finding that one of these clades was exclusively accessible to Greenlanders. With this discovery, we ascertain the biological origin of 23 archaeological specimens from Europe (most dated between 900 and 1400 CE). These results reveal a significant shift in trade from an early, predominantly eastern source towards a near exclusive representation of Greenland ivory. Our study provides empirical evidence for how this remote Arctic resource was progressively integrated into a medieval pan-European trade network, contributing to both the resilience and vulnerability of Norse Greenland society.

Genomic signatures of population bottleneck and recovery in Northwest Atlantic pinnipeds

Population increases over the past several decades provide natural settings in which to study the evolutionary processes that occur during bottleneck, growth, and spatial expansion. We used parallel natural experiments of historical decline and subsequent recovery in two sympatric pinniped species in the Northwest Atlantic, the gray seal (Halichoerus grypus atlantica) and harbor seal (Phoca vitulina vitulina), to study the impact of recent demographic change in genomic diversity. Using restriction site-associated DNA sequencing, we assessed genomic diversity at over 8,700 polymorphic gray seal loci and 3,700 polymorphic harbor seal loci in samples from multiple cohorts collected throughout recovery over the past half-century. Despite significant differences in the degree of genetic diversity assessed in the two species, we found signatures of historical bottlenecks in the contemporary genomes of both gray and harbor seals. We evaluated temporal trends in diversity across cohorts, as well as compared samples from sites at both the center and edge of a recent gray seal range expansion, but found no significant change in genomewide diversity following recovery. We did, however, find that the variance and degree of allele frequency change measured over the past several decades were significantly different from neutral expectations of drift under population growth. These two cases of well-described demographic history provide opportunities for critical evaluation of current approaches to simulating and understanding the genetic effects of historical demographic change in natural populations.