Spatial variation in high temperature-regulated gene expression predicts evolution of plasticity with climate change in the scarlet monkeyflower

Complex eco-evolutionary responses of a foundational coastal marsh plant to global change

Predicting the fate of coastal marshes requires understanding how plants respond to rapid environmental change. Environmental change can elicit shifts in trait variation attributable to phenotypic plasticity and act as selective agents to shift trait means, resulting in rapid evolution. Comparably, less is known about the potential for responses to reflect the evolution of trait plasticity. Here, we assessed the relative magnitude of eco-evolutionary responses to interacting global change factors using a multifactorial experiment. We exposed replicates of 32 Schoenoplectus americanus genotypes 'resurrected' from century-long, soil-stored seed banks to ambient or elevated CO2 , varying levels of inundation, and the presence of a competing marsh grass, across two sites with different salinities. Comparisons of responses to global change factors among age cohorts and across provenances indicated that plasticity has evolved in five of the seven traits measured. Accounting for evolutionary factors (i.e. evolution and sources of heritable variation) in statistical models explained an additional 9-31% of trait variation. Our findings indicate that evolutionary factors mediate ecological responses to environmental change. The magnitude of evolutionary change in plant traits over the last century suggests that evolution could play a role in pacing future ecosystem response to environmental change.

Testing the chilling- before drought-tolerance hypothesis in Pooideae grasses

Temperate Pooideae are a large clade of economically important grasses distributed in some of the Earth's coldest and driest terrestrial environments. Previous studies have inferred that Pooideae diversified from their tropical ancestors in a cold montane habitat, suggesting that above-freezing cold (chilling) tolerance evolved early in the subfamily. By contrast, drought tolerance is hypothesized to have evolved multiple times independently in response to global aridification that occurred after the split of Pooideae tribes. To independently test predictions of the chilling-before-drought hypothesis in Pooideae, we assessed conservation of whole plant and gene expression traits in response to chilling vs. drought. We demonstrated that both trait responses are more similar across tribes in cold as compared to drought, suggesting that chilling responses evolved before, and drought responses after, tribe diversification. Moreover, we found significantly more overlap between drought and chilling responsive genes within a species than between drought responsive genes across species, providing evidence that chilling tolerance genes acted as precursors for the novel acquisition of increased drought tolerance multiple times independently, partially through the cooption of chilling responsive genes.

Testing for genetic assimilation with phylogenetic comparative analysis: Conceptual, methodological, and statistical considerations

Genetic assimilation is a process that leads to reduced phenotypic plasticity during adaptation to novel conditions, a potentially important phenomenon under global environmental change. Null expectations when testing for genetic assimilation, however, are not always clear. For instance, the statistical artifact of regression to the mean could bias us toward detecting genetic assimilation when it has not occurred. Likewise, the specific mechanism underlying plasticity expression may affect null expectations under neutral evolution. We used macroevolutionary numerical simulations to examine both of these important issues and their interaction, varying whether plasticity evolves, the evolutionary mechanism, trait measurement error, and experimental design. We also modified an existing reaction norm correction method to account for phylogenetic nonindependence. We found (1) regression to the mean is pervasive and can generate spurious support for genetic assimilation; (2) experimental design and post hoc correction can minimize this spurious effect; and (3) neutral evolution can produce patterns consistent with genetic assimilation without constraint or selection, depending on the mechanism of plasticity expression. Additionally, we reanalyzed published macroevolutionary data supporting genetic assimilation, and found that support was reduced after proper correction. Considerable caution is thus required whenever investigating genetic assimilation and reaction norm evolution at macroevolutionary scales.

Gene expression studies of plastic and evolutionary responses to global warming

Phenotypic plasticity can be a rapid response for coping with global warming, yet may be insufficient to protect species from extinction. Evolutionary adaptation may reinforce adaptive or oppose maladaptive plastic responses. With advances in technology whole transcriptomes can provide us with an unprecedented overview of genes and functional processes underlying the interplay between plasticity and evolution. We advocate that insects provide ideal opportunities to study plasticity in non-adapted and thermally adapted populations to infer reaction norms across the whole transcriptome ('reactionomes'). This can advance our understanding of how the interplay between plasticity and evolution shapes responses to warming. So far, a limited number of studies suggest predominantly maladaptive plastic responses to novel environments that are reduced with time, but much more research is needed to infer general patterns.