Disentangling the genetic consequences of demographic change

A link between evolution and society fostering the UN sustainable development goals

Given the multitude of challenges Earth is facing, sustainability science is of key importance to our continued existence. Evolution is the fundamental biological process underlying the origin of all biodiversity. This phylogenetic diversity fosters the resilience of ecosystems to environmental change, and provides numerous resources to society, and options for the future. Genetic diversity within species is also key to the ability of populations to evolve and adapt to environmental change. Yet, the value of evolutionary processes and the consequences of their impairment have not generally been considered in sustainability research. We argue that biological evolution is important for sustainability and that the concepts, theory, data, and methodological approaches used in evolutionary biology can, in crucial ways, contribute to achieving the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We discuss how evolutionary principles are relevant to understanding, maintaining, and improving Nature Contributions to People (NCP) and how they contribute to the SDGs. We highlight specific applications of evolution, evolutionary theory, and evolutionary biology's diverse toolbox, grouped into four major routes through which evolution and evolutionary insights can impact sustainability. We argue that information on both within-species evolutionary potential and among-species phylogenetic diversity is necessary to predict population, community, and ecosystem responses to global change and to make informed decisions on sustainable production, health, and well-being. We provide examples of how evolutionary insights and the tools developed by evolutionary biology can not only inspire and enhance progress on the trajectory to sustainability, but also highlight some obstacles that hitherto seem to have impeded an efficient uptake of evolutionary insights in sustainability research and actions to sustain SDGs. We call for enhanced collaboration between sustainability science and evolutionary biology to understand how integrating these disciplines can help achieve the sustainable future envisioned by the UN SDGs.

Approximate Bayesian Computation applied to time series of population genetic data disentangles rapid genetic changes and demographic variations in a pathogen population

Adaptation can occur at remarkably short timescales in natural populations, leading to drastic changes in phenotypes and genotype frequencies over a few generations only. The inference of demographic parameters can allow understanding how evolutionary forces interact and shape the genetic trajectories of populations during rapid adaptation. Here we propose a new Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) framework that couples a forward and individual-based model with temporal genetic data to disentangle genetic changes and demographic variations in a case of rapid adaptation. We test the accuracy of our inferential framework and evaluate the benefit of considering a dense versus sparse sampling. Theoretical investigations demonstrate high accuracy in both model and parameter estimations, even if a strong thinning is applied to time series data. Then, we apply our ABC inferential framework to empirical data describing the population genetic changes of the poplar rust pathogen following a major event of resistance overcoming. We successfully estimate key demographic and genetic parameters, including the proportion of resistant hosts deployed in the landscape and the level of standing genetic variation from which selection occurred. Inferred values are in accordance with our empirical knowledge of this biological system. This new inferential framework, which contrasts with coalescent-based ABC analyses, is promising for a better understanding of evolutionary trajectories of populations subjected to rapid adaptation.