Superficial and early cancers of the esophagus

Development and Validation of an Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma Risk Prediction Model for Rural Chinese: Multicenter Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

There are rare prediction models for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) for rural Chinese population. We aimed to develop and validate a prediction model for ESCC based on a cohort study for the population.

METHODS

Data of 115,686 participants were collected from esophageal cancer (EC) early diagnosis and treatment of cancer program as derivation cohort while data of 54,750 participants were collected as validation cohort. Risk factors considered included age, sex, smoking status, alcohol drinking status, body mass index (BMI), tea drinking status, marital status, annual household income, source of drinking water, education level, and diet habit. Cox proportional hazards model was used to develop ESCC prediction model at 5 years. Calibration ability, discrimination ability, and decision curve analysis were analyzed in both derivation and validation cohort. A score model was developed based on prediction model.

RESULTS

One hundred eighty-six cases were diagnosed during 556,949.40 person-years follow-up in the derivation cohort while 120 cases from 277,302.70 in the validation cohort. Prediction model included the following variables: age, sex, alcohol drinking status, BMI, tea drinking status, and fresh fruit. The model had good discrimination and calibration performance: R 2, D statistic, and Harrell's C statistic of prediction model were 43.56%, 1.70, and 0.798 in derivation cohort and 45.19%, 1.62, and 0.787 in validation cohort. The calibration analysis showed good coherence between predicted probabilities and observed probabilities while decision curve analysis showed clinical usefulness. The score model was as follows: age (3 for 45-49 years old; 4 for 50-54 years old; 7 for 55-59 years old; 9 for 60-64 years; 10 for 65-69 years), sex (5 for men), BMI (1 for ≤25), alcohol drinking status (2 for alcohol drinkers), tea drinking status (2 for tea drinkers), and fresh fruit (2 for never) and showed good discrimination ability with area under the curve and its 95% confidence interval of 0.792 (0.761,0.822) in the deviation cohort and 0.773 (0.736,0.811) in the validation cohort. The calibration analysis showed great coherence between predicted probabilities and observed probabilities.

CONCLUSIONS

We developed and validated an ESCC prediction model using cohort study with good discrimination and calibration capability which can be used for EC screening for rural Chinese population.

ENDOSCOPIC SUBMUCOSAL DISSECTION WITH CIRCUMFERENTIAL INCISION VERSUS TUNNELING METHOD FOR TREATMENT OF SUPERFICIAL ESOPHAGEAL CANCER

BACKGROUND

Endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD) of esophageal superficial neoplasm is associated with a high en bloc R0 resection rate and low recurrence.

OBJECTIVE

We aim to compare the performance and clinical outcomes of ESD via ESD after circumferential incision (ESD-C) versus submucosal tunneling (ESD-T).

METHODS

Single-center retrospective analysis of all consecutive patients who underwent ESD for superficial esophageal cancer, between 2009 and 2018. ESD-T was defined as the technique of making the mucosal incisions followed by submucosal tunneling in the oral to anal direction. ESD-C consisted of completing a circumferential incision followed by ESD. Main study outcomes included en bloc and R0 resection rates. Secondary outcomes included procedural characteristics, curative resection rate, local recurrence and adverse events.

RESULTS

A total of 65 procedures (23 ESD-T and 42 ESD-C) were performed for ESCC (40; 61.5%) and BE-neoplasia (25; 38.5%). There were no statistically significant differences between patients who underwent ESD-T versus ESD-C in en bloc (91.3% vs 100%, P=0.12), R0 (65.2% vs 78.6%, P=0.24), curative resection rates (65.2% vs 73.8%, P=0.47) and mean procedure time (118.7 min with vs 102.4 min, P=0.35). Adverse events for ESD-T and ESD-C were as follows: bleeding (0 versus 2.4%; P=0.53), perforation (4.3% vs 0; P=0.61), esophageal stricture (8.7% versus 9.5%; P=0.31). Local recurrence was encountered in 8.7% after ESD-T and 2.4% after ESD-C (P=0.28) at a mean follow-up of 8 and 2.75 years, respectively (P=0.001).

CONCLUSION

ESD-T and ESD-C appear to be equally effective with similar safety profiles for the management of superficial esophageal neoplasms.

A Novel Deep Learning System for Diagnosing Early Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma: A Multicenter Diagnostic Study

INTRODUCTION

This study aims to construct a real-time deep convolutional neural networks (DCNNs) system to diagnose early esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) with white light imaging endoscopy.

METHODS

A total of 4,002 images from 1,078 patients were used to train and cross-validate the DCNN model for diagnosing early ESCC. The performance of the model was further tested with independent internal and external validation data sets containing 1,033 images from 243 patients. The performance of the model was then compared with endoscopists. The accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and Cohen kappa coefficient were measured to assess performance.

RESULTS

The DCNN model had excellent performance in diagnosing early ESCC with a sensitivity of 0.979, a specificity of 0.886, a positive predictive value of 0.777, a negative predictive value of 0.991, and an area under curve of 0.954 in the internal validation data set. The model also depicted a tremendously generalized performance in 2 external data sets and exhibited superior performance compared with endoscopists. The performance of the endoscopists was markedly elevated after referring to the predictions of the DCNN model. An open-accessed website of the DCNN system was established to facilitate associated research.

DISCUSSION

A real-time DCNN system, which was constructed to diagnose early ESCC, showed good performance in validation data sets. However, more prospective validation is needed to understand its true clinical significance in the real world.

A suggested framework for conducting esophageal cancer screening in China

Esophageal cancer is one of the most prevalent malignant tumors worldwide. Because of its challenging clinical characteristics, esophageal cancer is a major disease burden on the economy, society, and individuals. There is an urgent need to establish a beneficial policy to reduce the burden and to improve the health-related quality of life of patients. Primary prevention with smoking cessation and reduction of drinking alcohol are highly recommended. Screening, early diagnosis and treatment are suggested. This study intended to establish a modified future screening model from the social perspective that deploys different strategies for different populations. Risk assessment and community-based screening are proposed for high-risk populations. Health education in low-risk areas could help promote primary prevention to mitigate lifestyle factors and to increase public awareness and potentially to increase screening and early detection.

Comparison of two major staging systems of esophageal cancer-toward more practical common scale for tumor staging

The latest 8th edition of TNM Classification of Malignant Tumours by Union for International Cancer Control (UICC) and 11th edition of Japanese Classification of Esophageal Cancer by Japan Esophageal Society (JES) are the two major classifications widely accepted as tools for clinical staging of esophageal cancer. Both systems consist of three main categories, i.e., T, N, and M, but large difference exists between the two. JES system has more detailed sub-classification of T1 tumors reflecting meticulous work by Japanese investigators on superficial esophageal cancer. N-category shows the largest difference. UICC defines the N-category according to only the number of the metastatic regional lymph nodes. The definition of regional nodes in UICC system is static and uniform, and supraclavicular nodes are definitely excluded. In JES system, regional nodes are subgrouped into five different patterns according to the main tumor location, and the supraclavicular nodes are always regional nodes for thoracic esophageal cancer. Japanese surgeons have described the evidence that regional nodes should be dynamically defined according to tumor location and supraclavicular nodes should be included in regional nodes. Compared to the simplified N-category, the staging matrix of UICC system is somewhat complicated. The clinical stage and pathological stage of UICC system are not identical and difference exists also between squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) and adenocarcinoma. It has another system of pathological prognostic grouping. We can imagine several reasons for the difference occurred between the two systems. One is the difference of major pathology. Another reason is the difference of basic concept of cancer treatment. The relative "dependence" on radical surgery in Japan has required the detailed definition of each lymph node station and the evaluation of "efficacy index" of each station. The strict and detailed definition of lymph node stations has been regarded as an obstacle to those who are not familiar with it. Some simplification can be done but maintaining dynamic definition of regional lymph nodes linked to tumor location. If UICC system can accept this concept, I think the two systems can be unified to realize more practical and useful staging system as an international common language.

Early esophageal cancer screening in China

In China, the incidence of esophageal cancer (EC) and its related mortality are high. Screening strategies aiming at early diagnosis can improve the prognosis. Researches on detection of early EC, especially in China are reviewed. Compared to esophageal balloon cytology or routine endoscopy, chromoendoscopy with Lugol's staining and biopsy appears to be the gold standard for early EC diagnosis in China today. Narrow-band imaging endoscopy, Confocal Laser endomicroscopy and other novel diagnostic approaches are more and more widely used in developed urban areas, but cost and lack of essential training to the endoscopists have made their use limited in rural areas. No specific biomarkers or serum markers were strongly commended to be used in screening strategies currently, which need to be evaluated in future. Trials on organized screening have been proposed in some regions of china with high disease prevalence. Screening in these areas has been shown to be cost effective.