Trends and variability in polar sea ice, global atmospheric circulations, and baroclinicity

Enhancement of carbon sink in the main marginal sea ice zone by cold season Arctic cyclones

The Arctic Ocean, as a significant carbon sink, is attracting increased attention within the scientific community. This study focused on the main marginal sea ice zone, which has been the most sensitive to environmental changes in recent decades. Using data from reanalysis, models, and on-site observations, the changes in air-sea CO2 flux (FCO2) were analyzed during the influence of Arctic cyclones (ACs) in 2021-2022. Results indicated that the passage of ACs tended to increase the average carbon sink in the main marginal ice zone, with a more pronounced effect during the cold season. During ACs, the average FCO2 could reach -6.95 mmolC m-2 d-1. This was mainly associated with the stronger and more concentrated distribution of ACs where there was lower pCO2 (air-sea gradient of CO2 partial pressure) in the cold season. Additionally, the change in FCO2 during ACs was primarily affected by the sea surface wind and sea-ice concentration in the cold season, while it was influenced by a variety of environmental factors in the warm season, including the sea surface wind, sea-ice concentration, and ecological factors.

Opposite trends of cold surges over South China Sea and Philippines Sea and their different impacts on PM2.5 in eastern China

The variations in cold surge (CS) path can cause significant impacts on air pollution in the area it passes through. This study investigates impacts of CSs over South China Sea (CSSCS) and Philippine Sea (CSPHS) on PM2.5 concentrations in eastern China (PCEC) and their underlying mechanisms from 1979 to 2021. It was revealed that the CSSCS is accompanied by the continental high-pressure over East Asia and shows an upward trend. CSPHS is mainly affected by both the continental high-pressure over East Asia and the East Asian Trough over the Sea of Japan, showing a significant downward trend. Such difference in circulation anomalies is related to the different paths of the two types of CSs. Both observation and simulations indicate that more (less) Ural blocking in winter would lead to the cold air originating from the regions over Lake Baikal (Caspian Sea) to invade southward (eastward) along the northern (northwestern) path, resulting in more frequent CSSCS (CSPHS) and increased (decreased) winter averaged PCEC due to the anticyclonic (cyclonic) anomalies over eastern China. Such variations in winter averaged PCEC masked the synoptic signals that PCEC would decrease (increase) during CSSCS (CSPHS) outbreaks. Therefore, the increased frequency of atmospheric blocking over Ural Mountains in recent years has still played a worsening role in the intensification of PCEC.

Surface warming from altitudinal and latitudinal amplification over Antarctica since the International Geophysical Year

Warming has been and is being enhanced at high latitudes or high elevations, whereas the quantitative estimation for warming from altitude and latitude effects has not been systematically investigated over Antarctic Ice Sheet, which covers more than 27 degrees of latitude and 4000 m altitude ranges. Based on the monthly surface air temperature data (1958-2020) from ERA5 reanalysis, this work aims to explore whether elevation-dependent warming (EDW) and latitude-dependent warming (LDW) exist. Results show that both EDW and LDW have the cooperative effect on Antarctic warming, and the magnitude of EDW is stronger than LDW. The negative EDW appears between 250 m and 2500 m except winter, and is strongest in autumn. The negative LDW occurs between 83 °S and 90 °S except in summer. Moreover, the surface downward long-wave radiation that related to the specific humidity, total cloud cover and cloud base height is a major contributor to the EDW over Antarctica. Further research on EDW and LDW should be anticipated to explore the future Antarctic amplification under different emission scenarios.

Origins of Barents-Kara sea-ice interannual variability modulated by the Atlantic pathway of El Niño-Southern Oscillation

Winter Arctic sea-ice concentration (SIC) decline plays an important role in Arctic amplification which, in turn, influences Arctic ecosystems, midlatitude weather and climate. SIC over the Barents-Kara Seas (BKS) shows large interannual variations, whose origin is still unclear. Here we find that interannual variations in winter BKS SIC have significantly strengthened in recent decades likely due to increased amplitudes of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in a warming climate. La Niña leads to enhanced Atlantic Hadley cell and a positive phase North Atlantic Oscillation-like anomaly pattern, together with concurring Ural blocking, that transports Atlantic ocean heat and atmospheric moisture toward the BKS and promotes sea-ice melting via intensified surface warming. The reverse is seen during El Niño which leads to weakened Atlantic poleward transport and an increase in the BKS SIC. Thus, interannual variability of the BKS SIC partly originates from ENSO via the Atlantic pathway.

The influence of recent and future climate change on spring Arctic cyclones

In recent decades, the Arctic has experienced rapid atmospheric warming and sea ice loss, with an ice-free Arctic projected by the end of this century. Cyclones are synoptic weather events that transport heat and moisture into the Arctic, and have complex impacts on sea ice, and the local and global climate. However, the effect of a changing climate on Arctic cyclone behavior remains poorly understood. This study uses high resolution (4 km), regional modeling techniques and downscaled global climate reconstructions and projections to examine how recent and future climatic changes alter cyclone behavior. Results suggest that recent climate change has not yet had an appreciable effect on Arctic cyclone characteristics. However, future sea ice loss and increasing surface temperatures drive large increases in the near-surface temperature gradient, sensible and latent heat fluxes, and convection during cyclones. The future climate can alter cyclone trajectories and increase and prolong intensity with greatly augmented wind speeds, temperatures, and precipitation. Such changes in cyclone characteristics could exacerbate sea ice loss and Arctic warming through positive feedbacks. The increasing extreme nature of these weather events has implications for local ecosystems, communities, and socio-economic activities.

The mechanism linking the variability of the Antarctic sea ice extent in the Indian Ocean sector to Indian summer monsoon rainfall

The study investigates the mechanism of teleconnection between the variability of sea ice extent (SIE) in the Indian Ocean sector of the Southern Ocean and the variability of Indian summer monsoon rainfall. We utilized reanalysis, satellite, in-situ observation data, and model output from the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5) from 1979 to 2013. The empirical orthogonal function (EOF) and correlation analysis show that the first and third modes of principal component (PC1 and PC3) of SIE in the Indian Ocean sector during April-May-June (AMJ) are significantly correlated with the second mode of principal component (PC2) of Indian summer monsoon rainfall. The reanalysis data revealed that the changes in the SIE in the Indian Ocean sector excite meridional wave train responses along the Indian Ocean for both principal component modes. Positive (negative) SIE anomalies based on first and third EOFs (EOF1 and EOF3), contribute to the strengthening (weakening) of the Polar, Ferrel, and Hadley cells, inducing stronger (weaker) convective activity over the Indian latitudes. The stronger (weaker) convective activity over the Indian region leads to more (less) rainfall over the region during high (low) ice phase years. Furthermore, a stronger (weaker) polar jet during the high (low) ice phase is also noted. The selected CMIP5 models captured certain atmospheric teleconnection features found in the reanalysis. During AMJ, the SIE simulated by the NorESM1-M model was significantly positively correlated with Indian summer monsoon rainfall, whereas the IPSL-CM54-LR model showed a negative correlation.

Mechanisms associated with the rapid decline in sea ice cover around a stranded ship in the Lazarev Sea, Antarctica

In the satellite data era starting from 1979, the extent of Antarctic sea ice increased moderately for the first 37 years. However, the extent decreased to record low levels from 2016 to 2020, with the drop being greatest in the Weddell and Lazarev Seas of the Southern Ocean. An important question for the scientific fraternity and policymakers is to understand what ocean-atmospheric processes triggered such a rapid decline in sea ice. We employ in-situ, satellite, and atmospheric reanalysis data to examine the causative mechanism of anomalous sea ice variability in the Lazarev Sea at a time of ice growth in the annual cycle (March-April 2019), when a cargo ship was stuck in extensive ice cover and freed following the unusual decline in sea ice. High-resolution Sentinel-1 synthetic aperture radar captured a distinct view of the ship location and track within extensive ice cover of fast sea ice, dense pack ice, and icebergs in the Lazarev Sea on 27 March 2019. Subsequently, the sea ice cover declined and reached the fourth lowest extent in the entire satellite record during April 2019 which was 25.6% lower than the long-term mean value of 2.65 × 10⁶ km². We show that the anomalous sea ice variability was due to the occurrence of eastward-moving polar cyclones, including a quasi-stationary explosive development that impacted sea ice through extreme changes in ocean-atmospheric conditions. The cyclone-induced dynamic (poleward propagation of ocean waves and ice motion) and thermodynamic (heat and moisture plumes from midlatitudes, ocean mixed layer warming) processes coupled with high tides provided a conducive environment for an exceptional decline in sea ice over the region of ship movement.

Spatiotemporal Impact of Urbanization on Urban Heat Island and Urban Thermal Field Variance Index of Tianjin City, China

The rapid infrastructure development in densely populated areas has had several negative impacts. Increases in urbanization have led to increased LST, and urban ecological systems have been negatively affected. Urban heat islands (UHIs) can be mitigated by understanding how current and future LST phenomena are linked to changes in landscape composition and land use cover (LUC). This study investigated the multi-scale spatial analysis of LUC and LST in Tianjin using remote sensing and GIS data. We used Landsat data from 2005 to 2020 to examine the effects of LUC on LST in urban agglomeration. According to the Urban Thermal Field Variance Index (UTFVI), the city’s ecological evaluation was carried out. Results show that changes in LUC and other anthropogenic activities affect the spatial distribution of LST. For the study years (2004–2009), the estimated mean LST in Tianjin was 25.32 °C, 26.73 °C, 27.62 °C, and 27.93 °C. Between LST and urban areas with other infrastructures, and NDBI, significant positive correlation values were found about 0.53, 0.48, and 0.76 (p < 0.05), respectively. Temperatures would almost certainly increase by 3.87 °C to 7.26 °C as a result of decreased plant cover and increased settlements. These findings strongly imply a correlation between LST and the vegetation index. Between 2005 and 2020, the anticipated increase in LST of 3.39 °C is expected to harm urban environmental health. This study demonstrates how Tianjin and other cities can achieve ecological sustainability.