1
|
Judd EJ, Tierney JE, Lunt DJ, Montañez IP, Huber BT, Wing SL, Valdes PJ. A 485-million-year history of Earth's surface temperature. Science 2024; 385:eadk3705. [PMID: 39298603 DOI: 10.1126/science.adk3705] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/21/2023] [Accepted: 07/25/2024] [Indexed: 09/22/2024]
Abstract
A long-term record of global mean surface temperature (GMST) provides critical insight into the dynamical limits of Earth's climate and the complex feedbacks between temperature and the broader Earth system. Here, we present PhanDA, a reconstruction of GMST over the past 485 million years, generated by statistically integrating proxy data with climate model simulations. PhanDA exhibits a large range of GMST, spanning 11° to 36°C. Partitioning the reconstruction into climate states indicates that more time was spent in warmer rather than colder climates and reveals consistent latitudinal temperature gradients within each state. There is a strong correlation between atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations and GMST, identifying CO2 as the dominant control on variations in Phanerozoic global climate and suggesting an apparent Earth system sensitivity of ~8°C.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Emily J Judd
- Department of Paleobiology, Smithsonian National Museum of Natural History, Washington, DC 20560, USA
- Department of Geosciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA
| | - Jessica E Tierney
- Department of Geosciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA
| | - Daniel J Lunt
- School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8 1SS, UK
| | - Isabel P Montañez
- Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of California, Davis, Davis, CA 95616, USA
| | - Brian T Huber
- Department of Paleobiology, Smithsonian National Museum of Natural History, Washington, DC 20560, USA
| | - Scott L Wing
- Department of Paleobiology, Smithsonian National Museum of Natural History, Washington, DC 20560, USA
| | - Paul J Valdes
- School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8 1SS, UK
- State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System, Environment and Resources, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
| |
Collapse
|