Perturbation approaches for integral projection models

Compensatory responses of vital rates attenuate impacts of competition on population growth and promote coexistence

Competition is among the most important factors regulating plant population and community dynamics, but we know little about how different vital rates respond to competition and jointly determine population growth and species coexistence. We conducted a field experiment and parameterised integral projection models to model the population growth of 14 herbaceous plant species in the absence and presence of neighbours across an elevation gradient (284 interspecific pairs). We found that suppressed individual growth and seedling establishment contributed the most to competition-induced declines in population growth, although vital rate contributions varied greatly between species and with elevation. In contrast, size-specific survival and flowering probability and seed production were frequently enhanced under competition. These compensatory vital rate responses were nearly ubiquitous (occurred in 92% of species pairs) and significantly reduced niche overlap and stabilised coexistence. Our study highlights the importance of demographic processes for regulating population and community dynamics, which has often been neglected by classic coexistence theories.

Prescriptions for the Control of a Clonal Invasive Species Using Demographic Models

Until recently, little research has focused on determination of the population dynamics of invasive species and evaluating their genetic variation. Consequently, not much is known of what drives clonal invasive species and their demography. Here, we describe the population dynamics of Kalanchoe delagoensis (Crassulaceae), considered invasive to several countries. We quantified the demography of a population in central Mexico using integral projection models (IPM) in a population that reproduced asexually exclusively through plantlets. The effect of clonal recruitment on population growth rate (λ) was evaluated by changing plantlet survival and simulating management scenarios that used previous data of watering and seven experimental herbicide treatments. The finite rate of population increase indicated that this Kalanchoe delagoensis population is growing (above one) and with water availability, growth rates will only accelerate. The IPM showed that plantlet survival and recruitment were the most critical steps in the cycle for the population, and simulations of different management scenarios showed that reducing plantlet survival significantly decreased λ only in two out of the seven herbicides used.

Dissecting impacts of phenological shifts for performance across biological scales

Although phenological shifts in response to climate are often assumed to benefit species' performance and viability, phenology's role in allowing population persistence and mediating species-level responses in the face of climate change remain unclear. Here, we develop a framework to understand when and why phenological shifts at three biological scales will influence performance: individuals, populations, and macroecological patterns. Specifically, we highlight three underexplored assumptions: (i) individual variability in phenology does not affect population fitness; (ii) population growth rates are sensitive to vital rates affected by phenology; and (iii) phenology mediates species-level responses to climate change including patterns of extinction, invasion, and range shifts. We outline promising methods for understanding how phenological shifts will influence performance within and across biological scales.

Annual mowing has the potential to reduce the invasion of herbaceous Lupinus polyphyllus

In order to manage invasive plant species efficiently, it is necessary to have a thorough understanding of different strategies of population control, including the underlying mechanisms of action and the consequences for target populations. Here, I explored the effectiveness of biomass removal as a method of control for the invasive perennial herb Lupinus polyphyllus. More specifically, using seed material from 11 populations, I assessed among-population variation (if any) in plant compensatory growth as a response to annual biomass removal under standardised growing conditions over two consecutive years, and quantified the demographic effects of a single biomass-removal event. In all study populations, annual biomass removal reduced plant size, flowering probability, and shoot and root biomass. Biomass removal also reduced plant survival and the number of flowering shoots, but these effects were pronounced at certain time points only. A population-level demographic analysis revealed that a single biomass-removal event considerably decreased the long-term population growth rate (λ); this decline in λ was due to a reduction in plant fecundity followed by survival and growth. These findings suggest that annual mowing has the potential to curb invasions of L. polyphyllus because plants are not able to fully compensate for drastic biomass loss.

The demographic effects of functional traits: an integral projection model approach reveals population-level consequences of reproduction-defence trade-offs

Quantitatively linking individual variation in functional traits to demography is a necessary step to advance our understanding of trait-based ecological processes. We constructed a population model for Asclepias syriaca to identify how functional traits affect vital rates and population growth and whether trade-offs in chemical defence and demography alter population growth. Plants with higher foliar cardenolides had lower fibre, cellulose and lignin levels, as well as decreased sexual and clonal reproduction. Average cardenolide concentrations had the strongest effect on population growth. In both the sexual and clonal pathway, the trade-off between reproduction and defence affected population growth. We found that both increasing the mean of the distribution of individual plant values for cardenolides and herbivory decreased population growth. However, increasing the variance in both defence and herbivory increased population growth. Functional traits can impact population growth and quantifying individual-level variation in traits should be included in assessments of population-level processes.

Microclimate and demography interact to shape stable population dynamics across the range of an alpine plant

Heterogeneous terrain in montane systems results in a decoupling of climatic gradients. Population dynamics across species' ranges in these heterogeneous landscapes are shaped by relationships between demographic rates and these interwoven climate gradients. Linking demography and climate variables across species' ranges refines our understanding of the underlying mechanisms of species' current and future ranges. We explored the importance of multiple microclimatic gradients in shaping individual demographic rates and population growth rates in 16 populations across the elevational distribution of an alpine plant (Ivesia lycopodioides var. scandularis). Using integral projection modeling, we ask how each rate varies across three microclimate gradients: accumulated degree-days, growing-season soil moisture, and days of snow cover. Range-wide variation in demographic rates was best explained by the combined influence of multiple microclimatic variables. Different pairs of demographic rates exhibited both similar and inverse responses to the same microclimatic gradient, and the microclimatic effects often varied with plant size. These responses resulted in range-wide projected population persistence, with no declining populations at either elevational range edge or at the extremes of the microclimate gradients. The complex relationships between topography, microclimate and demography suggest that populations across a species' range may have unique demographic pathways to stable population dynamics.

Strong linkages between depth, longevity and demographic stability across marine sessile species

Understanding the role of the environment in shaping the evolution of life histories remains a major challenge in ecology and evolution. We synthesize longevity patterns of marine sessile species and find strong positive relationships between depth and maximum lifespan across multiple sessile marine taxa, including corals, bivalves, sponges and macroalgae. Using long-term demographic data on marine sessile and terrestrial plant species, we show that extreme longevity leads to strongly dampened population dynamics. We also used detailed analyses of Mediterranean red coral, with a maximum lifespan of 532 years, to explore the life-history patterns of long-lived taxa and the vulnerability to external mortality sources that these characteristics can create. Depth-related environmental gradients-including light, food availability, temperature and disturbance intensity-drive highly predictable distributions of life histories that, in turn, have predictable ecological consequences for the dynamics of natural populations.