Climate change may shift metapopulations towards unstable source-sink dynamics in a fire-killed, serotinous shrub

Climate change, with warming and drying weather conditions, is reducing the growth, seed production, and survival of fire-adapted plants in fire-prone regions such as Mediterranean-type ecosystems. These effects of climate change on local plant demographics have recently been shown to reduce the persistence time of local populations of the fire-killed shrub Banksia hookeriana dramatically. In principle, extinctions of local populations may be partly compensated by recolonization events through long-distance dispersal mechanisms of seeds, such as post-fire wind and bird-mediated dispersal, facilitating persistence in spatially structured metapopulations. However, to what degree and under which assumptions metapopulation dynamics might compensate for the drastically increased local extinction risk remains to be explored. Given the long timespans involved and the complexity of interwoven local and regional processes, mechanistic, process-based models are one of the most suitable approaches to systematically explore the potential role of metapopulation dynamics and its underlying ecological assumptions for fire-prone ecosystems. Here we extend a recent mechanistic, process-based, spatially implicit population model for the well-studied fire-killed and serotinous shrub species B. hookeriana to a spatially explicit metapopulation model. We systematically tested the effects of different ecological processes and assumptions on metapopulation dynamics under past (1988-2002) and current (2003-2017) climatic conditions, including (i) effects of different spatio-temporal fires, (ii) effects of (likely) reduced intraspecific plant competition under current conditions and (iii) effects of variation in plant performance among and within patches. In general, metapopulation dynamics had the potential to increase the overall regional persistence of B. hookeriana. However, increased population persistence only occurred under specific optimistic assumptions. In both climate scenarios, the highest persistence occurred with larger fires and intermediate to long inter-fire intervals. The assumption of lower intraspecific plant competition caused by lower densities under current conditions alone was not sufficient to increase persistence significantly. To achieve long-term persistence (defined as >400 years) it was necessary to additionally consider empirically observed variation in plant performance among and within patches, that is, improved habitat quality in some large habitat patches (≥7) that could function as source patches and a higher survival rate and seed production for a subset of plants, specifically the top 25% of flower producers based on current climate conditions monitoring data. Our model results demonstrate that the impacts of ongoing climate change on plant demographics are so severe that even under optimistic assumptions, the existing metapopulation dynamics shift to an unstable source-sink dynamic state. Based on our findings, we recommend increased research efforts to understand the consequences of intraspecific trait variation on plant demographics, emphasizing the variation of individual traits both among and within populations. From a conservation perspective, we encourage fire and land managers to revise their prescribed fire plans, which are typically short interval, small fires, as they conflict with the ecologically appropriate spatio-temporal fire regime for B. hookeriana, and likely as well for many other fire-killed species.

Predicting how defaunation-induced changes in seed predation and dispersal will affect tropical tree populations

The loss of large animals due to overhunting and habitat loss potentially affects tropical tree populations and carbon cycling. Trees reliant on large-bodied seed dispersers are thought to be particularly negatively affected by defaunation. But besides seed dispersal, defaunation can also increase or decrease seed predation. It remains unclear how these different defaunation effects on early life stages ultimately affect tree population dynamics. We reviewed the literature on how tropical animal loss affects different plant life stages, and we conducted a meta-analysis of how defaunation affects seed predation. We used this information to parameterize models that altered matrix projection models from a suite of tree species to simulate defaunation-caused changes in seed dispersal and predation. We assessed how applying these defaunation effects affected population growth rates. On average, population-level effects of defaunation were negligible, suggesting that defaunation may not cause the massive reductions in forest carbon storage that have been predicted. In contrast to previous hypotheses, we did not detect an effect of seed size on changes in seed predation rates. The change in seed predation did not differ significantly between exclosure experiments and observational studies, although the results of observational studies were far more variable. Although defaunation surely affects certain tree taxa, species that benefit or are harmed by it and net changes in forest carbon storage cannot currently be predicted based on available data. Further research on how factors such as seed predation vary across tree species and defaunation scenarios is necessary for understanding cascading changes in species composition and diversity.

Forest regeneration within Earth system models: current process representations and ways forward

Earth system models must predict forest responses to global change in order to simulate future global climate, hydrology, and ecosystem dynamics. These models are increasingly adopting vegetation demographic approaches that explicitly represent tree growth, mortality, and recruitment, enabling advances in the projection of forest vulnerability and resilience, as well as evaluation with field data. To date, simulation of regeneration processes has received far less attention than simulation of processes that affect growth and mortality, in spite of their critical role maintaining forest structure, facilitating turnover in forest composition over space and time, enabling recovery from disturbance, and regulating climate-driven range shifts. Our critical review of regeneration process representations within current Earth system vegetation demographic models reveals the need to improve parameter values and algorithms for reproductive allocation, dispersal, seed survival and germination, environmental filtering in the seedling layer, and tree regeneration strategies adapted to wind, fire, and anthropogenic disturbance regimes. These improvements require synthesis of existing data, specific field data-collection protocols, and novel model algorithms compatible with global-scale simulations. Vegetation demographic models offer the opportunity to more fully integrate ecological understanding into Earth system prediction; regeneration processes need to be a critical part of the effort.

Forest Dynamics Models for Conservation, Restoration, and Management of Small Forests

Globally, there are myriad situations in which people aim to conserve, restore, or manage forest ecosystems at small spatial scales of 50 ha or less. To inform management, forest dynamics models provide an increasingly diverse and valuable portfolio of tools for projecting forest change under different management and environmental conditions. Yet, many models may not be appropriate or feasible to use in small forest management because of their design for larger-scale applications, the information needed to initialize models, or discrepancies between model outputs and information relevant for small forest management objectives. This review explores the suitability of 54 existing forest dynamics models to inform the management of small forests. We evaluated the characteristics of each model using five criteria with implications for small forest management: spatial resolution, number of species the model can simulate, inclusion of spatial structure, modeling approach, and mechanistic detail. While numerous models can be suitable under certain conditions, the review criteria led us to conclude that two models offered the broadest versatility and usability for small forest contexts, SORTIE and FORMIND. This review can help orient and guide small forest managers who wish to add modeling to their forest management efforts.

Predation risk can modify the foraging behaviour of frugivorous carnivores: Implications of rewilding apex predators for plant-animal mutualisms

Apex predators play key roles in food webs and their recovery can trigger trophic cascades in some ecosystems. Intra‐guild competition can reduce the abundances of smaller predators and perceived predation risk can alter their foraging behaviour thereby limiting seed dispersal by frugivorous carnivores. However, little is known about how plant–frugivore mutualisms could be disturbed in the presence of larger predators.

We evaluated the top‐down effect of the regional superpredator, the Iberian lynx Lynx pardinus, on the number of visits and fruits consumed by medium‐sized frugivorous carnivores, as well as the foraging behaviour of identified individuals, by examining the consumption likelihood and the foraging time.

We carried out a field experiment in which we placed Iberian pear Pyrus bourgaeana fruits beneath fruiting trees and monitored pear removal by frugivorous carnivores, both inside and outside lynx ranges. Using camera traps, we recorded the presence of the red fox Vulpes vulpes, the Eurasian badger Meles meles and the stone marten Martes foina, as well as the number of fruits they consumed and their time spent foraging.

Red fox was the most frequent fruit consumer carnivore. We found there were fewer visits and less fruit consumed by foxes inside lynx ranges, but lynx presence did not seem to affect badgers. We did not observe any stone marten visits inside lynx territories. The foraging behaviour of red foxes was also altered inside lynx ranges whereby foxes were less efficient, consuming less fruit per unit of time and having shorter visits. Local availability of fruit resources, forest coverage and individual personality also were important variables to understand visitation and foraging in a landscape of fear.

Our results show a potential trophic cascade from apex predators to primary producers. The presence of lynx can reduce frugivorous carnivore numbers and induce shifts in their feeding behaviour that may modify the seed dispersal patterns with likely consequences for the demography of many fleshy‐fruited plant species. We conclude that knowledge of the ecological interactions making up trophic webs is an asset to design effective conservation strategies, particularly in rewilding programs.

Cascading Impacts of Seed Disperser Loss on Plant Communities and Ecosystems

Seed dispersal is key to the persistence and spread of plant populations. Because the majority of plant species rely on animals to disperse their seeds, global change drivers that directly affect animals can cause cascading impacts on plant communities. In this review, we synthesize studies assessing how disperser loss alters plant populations, community patterns, multitrophic interactions, and ecosystem functioning. We argue that the magnitude of risk to plants from disperser loss is shaped by the combination of a plant species’ inherent dependence on seed dispersal and the severity of the hazards faced by their dispersers. Because the factors determining a plant species’ risk of decline due to disperser loss can be related to traits of the plants and dispersers, our framework enables a trait-based understanding of change in plant community composition and ecosystem functioning. We discuss how interactions among plants, among dispersers, and across other trophic levels also mediate plant community responses, and we identify areas for future research to understand and mitigate the consequences of disperser loss on plants globally.

Tackling unresolved questions in forest ecology: The past and future role of simulation models

Understanding the processes that shape forest functioning, structure, and diversity remains challenging, although data on forest systems are being collected at a rapid pace and across scales. Forest models have a long history in bridging data with ecological knowledge and can simulate forest dynamics over spatio-temporal scales unreachable by most empirical investigations.We describe the development that different forest modelling communities have followed to underpin the leverage that simulation models offer for advancing our understanding of forest ecosystems.Using three widely applied but contrasting approaches - species distribution models, individual-based forest models, and dynamic global vegetation models - as examples, we show how scientific and technical advances have led models to transgress their initial objectives and limitations. We provide an overview of recent model applications on current important ecological topics and pinpoint ten key questions that could, and should, be tackled with forest models in the next decade.Synthesis. This overview shows that forest models, due to their complementarity and mutual enrichment, represent an invaluable toolkit to address a wide range of fundamental and applied ecological questions, hence fostering a deeper understanding of forest dynamics in the context of global change.

Fungi and insects compensate for lost vertebrate seed predation in an experimentally defaunated tropical forest

Overhunting reduces important plant-animal interactions such as vertebrate seed dispersal and seed predation, thereby altering plant regeneration and even above-ground biomass. It remains unclear, however, if non-hunted species can compensate for lost vertebrates in defaunated ecosystems. We use a nested exclusion experiment to isolate the effects of different seed enemies in a Bornean rainforest. In four of five tree species, vertebrates kill many seeds (13-66%). Nonetheless, when large mammals are excluded, seed mortality from insects and fungi fully compensates for the lost vertebrate predation, such that defaunation has no effect on seedling establishment. The switch from seed predation by generalist vertebrates to specialist insects and fungi in defaunated systems may alter Janzen-Connell effects and density-dependence in plants. Previous work using simulation models to explore how lost seed dispersal will affect tree species composition and carbon storage may require reevaluation in the context of functional redundancy within complex species interactions networks.

Deterministic modelling of seed dispersal based on observed behaviours of an endemic primate in Brazil

Plant species models are among the available tools to predict the future of ecosystems threatened by climate change, habitat loss, and degradation. However, they suffer from low to no inclusion of plant dispersal, which is necessary to predict ecosystem evolution. A variety of seed dispersal models have been conceived for anemochorous and zoochorous plant species, but the coupling between vegetation models and seed dispersal processes remains rare. The main challenge in modelling zoochoric dispersal is simulating animal movements in their complex habitat. Recent developments allow straightforward applications of hidden Markov modelling (HMM) to animal movements, which could ease generalizations when modelling zoochoric seed dispersal. We tested the use of HMM to model seed dispersal by an endangered primate in the Brazilian Atlantic forest, to demonstrate its potential simplicity to simulate seed dispersal processes. We also discuss how to adapt it to other species. We collected information on movement, fruit consumption, deposition, and habitat use of Leontopithecus chrysomelas. We analysed daily trajectories using HMM and built a deterministic Model Of Seed Transfer (MOST), which replicated, with good approximation, the primate's movement and seed deposition patterns as observed in the field. Our results suggest that the dispersal behaviour and short daily-trajectories of L. chrysomelas restrict the species' role in large-scale forest regeneration, but contribute to the prevalence of resource tree species locally, and potentially maintaining tree diversity by preventing local extinction. However, it may be possible to accurately simulate dispersal in an area, without necessarily quantifying variables that influence movement, if the movement can be broken down to step-length and turning angles, and parametrised along with the distribution of gut-transit times. For future objectives, coupling MOST with a DVM could be used to test hypotheses on tree species survival in various scenarios, simulating regeneration and growth at regional scales by including data on main dispersal agents over the area of interest, distribution of tree species, and land use data. The principal advantage of the MOST model is its functionality with data available from the literature as the variables are easy to parametrise. We suggest using the coupled model to perform experiments using only available information, but varying the numbers and species of seed dispersers, or modifying land cover or configuration to test for possible thresholds preventing the extinction of selected tree species.

A question of size and fear: competition and predation risk perception among frugivores and predators

Mammalian spatial and temporal activity patterns can vary depending on foraging behavior or the perception of predation or competition risk among species. These behaviors may in turn be altered by human influences such as defaunation. Herein, we evaluate whether frugivores avoid areas with high visitation rates by potential predators or competitors, and whether this avoidance changes in areas with different degrees of defaunation. We installed 189 cameras under fruit trees in six areas of the Atlantic Forest, Brazil, that differ in the abundance of top predators and large frugivores. Small predators and small frugivores were more frequent at night while large frugivores were more frequent during the day, but small frugivores visited and spent less time at fruiting trees on brighter nights, unlike large predators and large frugivores. Small frugivores also were less frequent in areas with high visitation by large frugivores and more frequent in highly defaunated areas. Our results suggest that the dynamics among mammalian functional groups varied according to diel patterns, potential competitors, and defaunation. We highlight the importance of understanding how species interactions are changing in areas exposed to strong human impacts to mitigate the indirect effects of defaunation.

Animals and the zoogeochemistry of the carbon cycle

Predicting and managing the global carbon cycle requires scientific understanding of ecosystem processes that control carbon uptake and storage. It is generally assumed that carbon cycling is sufficiently characterized in terms of uptake and exchange between ecosystem plant and soil pools and the atmosphere. We show that animals also play an important role by mediating carbon exchange between ecosystems and the atmosphere, at times turning ecosystem carbon sources into sinks, or vice versa. Animals also move across landscapes, creating a dynamism that shapes landscape-scale variation in carbon exchange and storage. Predicting and measuring carbon cycling under such dynamism is an important scientific challenge. We explain how to link analyses of spatial ecosystem functioning, animal movement, and remote sensing of animal habitats with carbon dynamics across landscapes.