Inter‐ and intraspecific trait variation shape multidimensional trait overlap between two plant invaders and the invaded communities

The influence of sample size and sampling design on estimating population-level intra specific trait variation (ITV) along environmental gradients

Understanding the relationship between intraspecific trait variability (ITV) and its biotic and abiotic drivers is crucial for advancing population and community ecology. Despite its importance, there is a lack of guidance on how to effectively sample ITV and reduce bias in the resulting inferences. In this study, we explored how sample size affects the estimation of population-level ITV, and how the distribution of sample sizes along an environmental gradient (i.e., sampling design) impacts the probabilities of committing Type I and II errors. We investigated Type I and II error probabilities using four simulated scenarios which varied sampling design and the strength of the ITV-environment relationships. We also applied simulation scenarios to empirical data on populations of the small mammal, Peromyscus maniculatus across gradients of latitude and temperature at sites in the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) in the continental United States. We found that larger sample sizes reduce error rates in the estimation of population-level ITV for both in silico and Peromyscus maniculatus populations. Furthermore, the influence of sample size on detecting ITV-environment relationships depends on how sample sizes and population-level ITV are distributed along environmental gradients. High correlations between sample size and the environment result in greater Type I error, while weak ITV-environmental gradient relationships showed high Type II error probabilities. Therefore, having large sample sizes that are even across populations is the most robust sampling design for studying ITV-environment relationships. These findings shed light on the complex interplay among sample size, sampling design, ITV, and environmental gradients.

Can niche plasticity mediate species persistence under ocean acidification?

Global change stressors can modify ecological niches of species, thereby altering ecological interactions within communities and food webs. Yet, some species might take advantage of a fast-changing environment, allowing species with high niche plasticity to thrive under climate change. We used natural CO2 vents to test the effects of ocean acidification on niche modifications of a temperate rocky reef fish assemblage. We quantified three ecological niche traits (overlap, shift and breadth) across three key niche dimensions (trophic, habitat and behavioural). Only one species increased its niche width along multiple niche dimensions (trophic and behavioural), shifted its niche in the remaining (habitat) was the only species to experience a highly increased density (i.e. doubling) at vents. The other three species that showed slightly increased or declining densities at vents only displayed a niche width increase in one (habitat niche) out of seven niche metrics considered. This niche modification was likely in response to habitat simplification (transition to a system dominated by turf algae) under ocean acidification. We further showed that, at the vents, the less abundant fishes had a negligible competitive impact on the most abundant and common species. This species appeared to expand its niche space, overlapping with other species, which likely led to lower abundances of the latter under elevated CO2. We conclude that niche plasticity across multiple dimensions could be a potential adaptation in fishes to benefit from a changing environment in a high-CO2 world.

Using individual-based trait frequency distributions to forecast plant-pollinator network responses to environmental change

Determining how and why organisms interact is fundamental to understanding ecosystem responses to future environmental change. To assess the impact on plant-pollinator interactions, recent studies have examined how the effects of environmental change on individual interactions accumulate to generate species-level responses. Here, we review recent developments in using plant-pollinator networks of interacting individuals along with their functional traits, where individuals are nested within species nodes. We highlight how these individual-level, trait-based networks connect intraspecific trait variation (as frequency distributions of multiple traits) with dynamic responses within plant-pollinator communities. This approach can better explain interaction plasticity, and changes to interaction probabilities and network structure over spatiotemporal or other environmental gradients. We argue that only through appreciating such trait-based interaction plasticity can we accurately forecast the potential vulnerability of interactions to future environmental change. We follow this with general guidance on how future studies can collect and analyse high-resolution interaction and trait data, with the hope of improving predictions of future plant-pollinator network responses for targeted and effective conservation.

Abiotic and Biotic Factors from the Past as Predictors of Alien Bird Richness and Temporal Beta-Diversity

The challenge of predicting the distribution of alien species has long been a focus of invasion ecology. Herein, we assessed biotic and abiotic factors from the 1980s as potential predictors of alien bird species patterns 20 years later in the state of New York. To assess the ability of each factor to predict future alien species patterns, we analysed the influence of biotic (native taxonomic, functional and phylogenetic diversity, and human population density) and abiotic (climate and land use) factors from the 1980s on the observed alien species richness patterns in the 2000s and the temporal change in the composition of the alien communities between the 1980s and the 2000s using both single-predictor and multivariate models. Alien species richness from the 1980s was a reliable predictor of the alien species richness and temporal beta-diversity patterns in the 2000s. Among abiotic factors, maximum temperature and agricultural land-uses constituted sufficient predictors of future alien species richness and better predictors than the native biotic factors. The performance of single-predictor models was generally weaker in predicting temporal alien beta-diversity; however, past alien species richness and maximum temperature again outperformed the other factors. Predictions and management decisions should focus on warm and agricultural areas, as well as areas with an already high number of established alien species.

Climate warming will increase chances of hybridization and introgression between two Takydromus lizards (Lacertidae)

Coexisting species may experience population and range changes alone or jointly in response to environmental change. Here, we used six climate variables and ten modeling algorithms to predict the distribution of two Takydromus species (T. septentrionalis and T. sexlineatus) in China. We identified the sympatric and allopatric areas by comparing projections between the two species based on habitat suitability under present and future climate scenarios. We constructed the hypervolumes of six climate variables for the two species and then evaluated overlaps between hypervolumes. From this study, we know the following. First, minimum temperature of coldest month contributes the most to the prediction of habitat suitability. Second, habitats suitable for the two species will shift northward in response to climate warming. Third, the range of T. sexlineatus will expand across the four future time intervals before 2,100, namely the 2021-2040, 2041-2060, 2061-2080, and 2081-2100 intervals, under both Shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) 245 and SSP585 scenarios, and the range of T. septentrionalis will also expand in the future except at the 2081-2100 interval under the SSP585 scenario. Fourth, the sympatric areas will contract or expand under the SSP245 scenario and expand across the four future time intervals before 2,100 under the SSP585 scenario. Fifth, the niche hypervolumes of the two species partially overlapped, and the differences in niche centroid show some degree of niche differentiation between the two species. These results allow to conclude that climate warming will not only drive the northward drift of sympatric areas but also increase the size of these areas if nothing is done to limit the emission of greenhouse gases. Given the existence of hybridization and introgression between T. septentrionalis and T. sexlineatus in the field where they coexist, we also conclude that climate warming will increase chances of hybridization and introgression between the two species.