Directionality and community‐level selection

Local and extensive fluctuations in sparsely interacting ecological communities

Ecological communities with many species can be classified into dynamical phases. In systems with all-to-all interactions, a phase where species abundances always reach a fixed point and a phase where they continuously fluctuate have been found. The dynamics when interactions are sparse, with each species interacting with only a few others, has remained largely unexplored. Here we study a system of sparse interactions, first when interactions are of constant strength and completely unidirectional, and then when adding variability and bidirectionality. We show that in this case a phase unique to the sparse setting appears in the phase diagram, where for the same control parameters different communities may reach either a fixed point or a state where the abundances of only a finite subset of species fluctuate, and we calculate the probability for each outcome. These fluctuating species are organized around short cycles in the interaction graph, and their abundances undergo large nonlinear fluctuations. We characterize the approach from this phase to a phase with extensively many fluctuating species, and show that the probability of fluctuations grows continuously to one as the transition is approached, and that the number of fluctuating species diverges. This is qualitatively distinct from the transition to extensive fluctuations coming from a fixed point phase, which is marked by a loss of linear stability. The differences are traced back to the emergent binary character of the dynamics when far from short cycles.

Modeling tumors as species-rich ecological communities

Many advanced cancers resist therapeutic intervention. This process is fundamentally related to intra-tumor heterogeneity: multiple cell populations, each with different mutational and phenotypic signatures, coexist within a tumor and its metastatic nodes. Like species in an ecosystem, many cancer cell populations are intertwined in a complex network of ecological interactions. Most mathematical models of tumor ecology, however, cannot account for such phenotypic diversity nor are able to predict its consequences. Here we propose that the Generalized Lotka-Volterra model (GLV), a standard tool to describe complex, species-rich ecological communities, provides a suitable framework to describe the ecology of heterogeneous tumors. We develop a GLV model of tumor growth and discuss how its emerging properties, such as outgrowth and multistability, provide a new understanding of the disease. Additionally, we discuss potential extensions of the model and their application to three active areas of cancer research, namely phenotypic plasticity, the cancer-immune interplay and the resistance of metastatic tumors to treatment. Our work outlines a set of questions and a tentative road map for further research in cancer ecology.

A taxonomy of multiple stable states in complex ecological communities

Natural systems are built from multiple interconnected units, making their dynamics, functioning and fragility notoriously hard to predict. A fragility scenario of particular relevance concerns so-called regime shifts: abrupt transitions from healthy to degraded ecosystem states. An explanation for these shifts is that they arise as transitions between alternative stable states, a process that is well-understood in few-species models. However, how multistability upscales with system complexity remains a debated question. Here, we identify that four different multistability regimes generically emerge in models of species-rich communities and other archetypical complex biological systems assuming random interactions. Across the studied models, each regime consistently emerges under a specific interaction scheme and leaves a distinct set of fingerprints in terms of the number of observed states, their species richness and their response to perturbations. Our results help clarify the conditions and types of multistability that can be expected to occur in complex ecological communities.

Opportunities to advance the synthesis of ecology and evolution

Despite decades of research on the interactions between ecology and evolution, opportunities still remain to further integrate the two disciplines, especially when considering multispecies systems. Here, we discuss two such opportunities. First, the traditional emphasis on the distinction between evolutionary and ecological processes should be further relaxed as it is particularly unhelpful in the study of microbial communities, where the very notion of species is hard to define. Second, key processes of evolutionary theory such as adaptation should be exported to hierarchical levels higher than populations to make sense of biodiversity dynamics. Together, we argue that broadening our perspective of eco-evolutionary dynamics to be more inclusive of all biodiversity, both phylogenetically and hierarchically, will open up fertile new research directions and help us to address one of the major scientific challenges of our time, that is, to understand and predict changes in biodiversity in the face of rapid environmental change.

Artificial selection of communities drives the emergence of structured interactions

Species-rich communities, such as the microbiota or microbial ecosystems, provide key functions for human health and climatic resilience. Increasing effort is being dedicated to design experimental protocols for selecting community-level functions of interest. These experiments typically involve selection acting on populations of communities, each of which is composed of multiple species. If numerical simulations started to explore the evolutionary dynamics of this complex, multi-scale system, a comprehensive theoretical understanding of the process of artificial selection of communities is still lacking. Here, we propose a general model for the evolutionary dynamics of communities composed of a large number of interacting species, described by disordered generalised Lotka-Volterra equations. Our analytical and numerical results reveal that selection for scalar community functions leads to the emergence, along an evolutionary trajectory, of a low-dimensional structure in an initially featureless interaction matrix. Such structure reflects the combination of the properties of the ancestral community and of the selective pressure. Our analysis determines how the speed of adaptation scales with the system parameters and the abundance distribution of the evolved communities. Artificial selection for larger total abundance is thus shown to drive increased levels of mutualism and interaction diversity. Inference of the interaction matrix is proposed as a method to assess the emergence of structured interactions from experimentally accessible measures.

Local and collective transitions in sparsely-interacting ecological communities

Interactions in natural communities can be highly heterogeneous, with any given species interacting appreciably with only some of the others, a situation commonly represented by sparse interaction networks. We study the consequences of sparse competitive interactions, in a theoretical model of a community assembled from a species pool. We find that communities can be in a number of different regimes, depending on the interaction strength. When interactions are strong, the network of coexisting species breaks up into small subgraphs, while for weaker interactions these graphs are larger and more complex, eventually encompassing all species. This process is driven by the emergence of new allowed subgraphs as interaction strength decreases, leading to sharp changes in diversity and other community properties, and at weaker interactions to two distinct collective transitions: a percolation transition, and a transition between having a unique equilibrium and having multiple alternative equilibria. Understanding community structure is thus made up of two parts: first, finding which subgraphs are allowed at a given interaction strength, and secondly, a discrete problem of matching these structures over the entire community. In a shift from the focus of many previous theories, these different regimes can be traversed by modifying the interaction strength alone, without need for heterogeneity in either interaction strengths or the number of competitors per species.

Evidence for Alternate Stable States in an Ecuadorian Andean Cloud Forest

Tree diversity inventories were undertaken. The goal of this study was to understand changes in tree community dynamics that may result from common anthropogenic disturbances at the Reserva Los Cedros, a tropical montane cloud forest reserve in northern Andean Ecuador. The reserve shows extremely high alpha and beta tree diversity. We found that all primary forest sites, regardless of age of natural gaps, are quite ecologically resilient, appearing to return to a primary-forest-type community of trees following gap formation. In contrast, forests regenerating from anthropogenic disturbance appear to have multiple possible ecological states. Where anthropogenic disturbance was intense, novel tree communities appear to be assembling, with no indication of return to a primary forest state. Even in ancient primary forests, new forest types may be forming, as we found that seedling community composition did not resemble adult tree communities. We also suggest small watersheds as a useful basic spatial unit for understanding biodiversity patterns in the tropical Andes that confound more traditional Euclidean distance as a basic proxy of dissimilarity. Finally, we highlight the conservation value of Reserva Los Cedros, which has managed to reverse deforestation within its boundaries despite a general trend of extensive deforestation in the surrounding region, to protect a large, contiguous area of highly endangered Andean primary cloud forest.

Well-mixed Lotka-Volterra model with random strongly competitive interactions

The random Lotka-Volterra model is widely used to describe the dynamical and thermodynamic features of ecological communities. In this work, we consider random symmetric interactions between species and analyze the strongly competitive interaction case. We investigate different scalings for the distribution of the interactions with the number of species and try to bridge the gap with previous works. Our results show two different behaviors for the mean abundance at zero and finite temperature, respectively, with a continuous crossover between the two. We confirm and extend previous results obtained for weak interactions: at zero temperature, even in the strong competitive interaction limit, the system is in a multiple-equilibria phase, whereas at finite temperature only a unique stable equilibrium can exist. Finally, we establish the qualitative phase diagrams and compare the species abundance distributions in the two cases.