Marine regime shifts impact synchrony of deep‐sea fish growth in the northeast Atlantic

Interannual variability in early life phenology is driven by climate and oceanic processes in two NE Atlantic flatfishes

Early life phenology is a crucial factor for population dynamics in a climate change scenario. As such, understanding how the early life cycle of marine fishes is influenced by key oceanic and climate drivers is of chief importance for sustainable fisheries. This study documents interannual changes in early life phenology of two commercial flatfishes: European flounder (Platichthys flesus) and common sole (Solea solea) from 2010 to 2015 based on otolith microstructure. Using GAMs, we looked for correlations of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Eastern Atlantic pattern (EA), sea surface temperature (SST), chlorophyl a concentration (Chla) and upwelling (Ui) variation with the onset of hatch, metamorphosis, and benthic settlement day. We concluded that higher SST, more intensive upwelling, and EA were coincident with a later the onset of each stage, while increasing NAO induces an earlier onset of each stage. Although similar to S. solea, P. flesus showed a more complex interaction with the environmental drivers, most possibly because it is at its southern limit of its distribution. Our results highlight the complexity of the relationship between climate conditions and fish early life history, particularly those with complex life cycles that include migrations between coastal areas and estuaries.

Growth portfolios buffer climate-linked environmental change in marine systems

Large-scale, climate-induced synchrony in the productivity of fish populations is becoming more pronounced in the world's oceans. As synchrony increases, a population's "portfolio" of responses can be diminished, in turn reducing its resilience to strong perturbation. Here we argue that the costs and benefits of trait synchronization, such as the expression of growth rate, are context dependent. Contrary to prevailing views, synchrony among individuals could actually be beneficial for populations if growth synchrony increases during favorable conditions, and then declines under poor conditions when a broader portfolio of responses could be useful. Importantly, growth synchrony among individuals within populations has seldom been measured, despite well-documented evidence of synchrony across populations. Here, we used century-scale time series of annual otolith growth to test for changes in growth synchronization among individuals within multiple populations of a marine keystone species (Atlantic cod, Gadus morhua). On the basis of 74,662 annual growth increments recorded in 13,749 otoliths, we detected a rising conformity in long-term growth rates within five northeast Atlantic cod populations in response to both favorable growth conditions and a large-scale, multidecadal mode of climate variability similar to the East Atlantic Pattern. The within-population synchrony was distinct from the across-population synchrony commonly reported for large-scale environmental drivers. Climate-linked, among-individual growth synchrony was also identified in other Northeast Atlantic pelagic, deep-sea and bivalve species. We hypothesize that growth synchrony in good years and growth asynchrony in poorer years reflects adaptive trait optimization and bet hedging, respectively, that could confer an unexpected, but pervasive and stabilizing, impact on marine population productivity in response to large-scale environmental change.

Synergistic effects of harvest and climate drive synchronous somatic growth within key New Zealand fisheries

Fisheries harvest has pervasive impacts on wild fish populations, including the truncation of size and age structures, altered population dynamics and density, and modified habitat and assemblage composition. Understanding the degree to which harvest-induced impacts increase the sensitivity of individuals, populations and ultimately species to environmental change is essential to ensuring sustainable fisheries management in a rapidly changing world. Here we generated multiple long-term (44-62 years), annually resolved, somatic growth chronologies of four commercially important fishes from New Zealand's coastal and shelf waters. We used these novel data to investigate how regional- and basin-scale environmental variability, in concert with fishing activity, affected individual somatic growth rates and the magnitude of spatial synchrony among stocks. Changes in somatic growth can affect individual fitness and a range of population and fishery metrics such as recruitment success, maturation schedules and stock biomass. Across all species, individual growth benefited from a fishing-induced release of density controls. For nearshore snapper and tarakihi, regional-scale wind and temperature also additively affected growth, indicating that future climate change-induced warming and potentially strengthened winds will initially promote the productivity of more poleward populations. Fishing increased the sensitivity of deep-water hoki and ling growth to the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). A forecast shift to a positive IPO phase, in concert with current harvest strategies, will likely promote individual hoki and ling growth. At the species level, historical fishing practices and IPO synergized to strengthen spatial synchrony in average growth between stocks separated by 400-600 nm of ocean. Increased spatial synchrony can, however, increase the vulnerability of stocks to deleterious stochastic events. Together, our individual- and species-level results show how fishing and environmental factors can conflate to initially promote individual growth but then possibly heighten the sensitivity of stocks to environmental change.