Evaluating ecological uniqueness over broad spatial extents using species distribution modelling

Spatially explicit predictions of food web structure from regional-level data

Knowledge about how ecological networks vary across global scales is currently limited given the complexity of acquiring repeated spatial data for species interactions. Yet, recent developments in metawebs highlight efficient ways to first document possible interactions within regional species pools. Downscaling metawebs towards local network predictions is a promising approach to using the current data to investigate the variation of networks across space. However, issues remain in how to represent the spatial variability and uncertainty of species interactions, especially for large-scale food webs. Here, we present a probabilistic framework to downscale a metaweb based on the Canadian mammal metaweb and species occurrences from global databases. We investigated how our approach can be used to represent the variability of networks and communities between ecoregions in Canada. Species richness and interactions followed a similar latitudinal gradient across ecoregions but simultaneously identified contrasting diversity hotspots. Network motifs revealed additional areas of variation in network structure compared with species richness and number of links. Our method offers the potential to bring global predictions down to a more actionable local scale, and increases the diversity of ecological networks that can be projected in space. This article is part of the theme issue 'Connected interactions: enriching food web research by spatial and social interactions'.

Quantitative measurement of geodiversity uniqueness: research implications and conservation applications

Quantitative approaches are needed to complement qualitative explorations to identify sites with unique geodiversity and thereby guide geoconservation and geoheritage programmes. Here, we introduce the concept and associated index of 'geodiversity uniqueness'. This index is based on a numerical analysis of geofeatures and allows the identification of sites with unique geodiversity in a study area. We applied this approach to geofeature data from three areas in Finland. Our results showed that patterns of geodiversity uniqueness varied profoundly among the three study areas and across sites within each area. This was due to different sets of geofeatures and distinct characteristics of each study area. More importantly, the approach presented here was robust across the datasets and selection criteria for sets of sites, showing potential for geoconservation in each study area. The geodiversity uniqueness approach is a promising starting point to identify and map sites with unique geodiversity that can be further verified using field observations. To improve our knowledge of geodiversity variation, complementary approaches providing objective information on contributions to total beta geodiversity are needed to advance geoconservation programmes across areas and different spatial scales. This article is part of the Theo Murphy meeting issue 'Geodiversity for science and society'.

The coevolutionary mosaic of bat betacoronavirus emergence risk

Pathogen evolution is one of the least predictable components of disease emergence, particularly in nature. Here, building on principles established by the geographic mosaic theory of coevolution, we develop a quantitative, spatially explicit framework for mapping the evolutionary risk of viral emergence. Driven by interest in diseases like Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS), and Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), we examine the global biogeography of bat-origin betacoronaviruses, and find that coevolutionary principles suggest geographies of risk that are distinct from the hotspots and coldspots of host richness. Further, our framework helps explain patterns like a unique pool of merbecoviruses in the Neotropics, a recently discovered lineage of divergent nobecoviruses in Madagascar, and-most importantly-hotspots of diversification in southeast Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, and the Middle East that correspond to the site of previous zoonotic emergence events. Our framework may help identify hotspots of future risk that have also been previously overlooked, like West Africa and the Indian subcontinent, and may more broadly help researchers understand how host ecology shapes the evolution and diversity of pandemic threats.

Bioclimatic Characterisation of Specific Native Californian Pinales and Their Future Suitability under Climate Change

Rising temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns under climate change scenarios are accelerating the depletion of soil moisture and increasing the risk of drought, disrupting the conditions that many plant species need to survive. This study aims to establish the bioclimatic characterisation, both qualitative and quantitative, of ten native Californian Pinales for the period 1980-2019, and to determine their habitat suitability by 2050. To achieve this, an exhaustive search of the Gbif database for records of ten conifer taxa was carried out. To conduct the bioclimatic characterisation of the studied taxa, we worked with the monthly values of average temperature and precipitation for the period 1980-2019 from 177 meteorological stations. Linear regressions was performed in order to compile the future evolution of California's climate. Suitable areas and optimal areas were defined at the present time (1980-2019) and its future projection (2050). We applied Boolean logic and, in this investigation, the Conditional Logic Operator (CON) was used to determine the possible species presence (one) or absence (zero) for each of the 15 variables analysed. In general, most of the conifers studied here will experience a reduction in their habitat range in California by the year 2050 due to climate change, as well as the displacement of species towards optimal areas. Furthermore, the results have highlighted the applicability of bioclimatology to future conditions under climate change. This will aid conservation managers in implementing strategic measures to ameliorate the detrimental impacts of climate change, thereby ensuring the ecological integrity and sustainability of the affected conifer species.