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Kenis M, Agboyi LK, Adu-Acheampong R, Ansong M, Arthur S, Attipoe PT, Baba ASM, Beseh P, Clottey VA, Combey R, Dzomeku I, Eddy-Doh MA, Fening KO, Frimpong-Anin K, Hevi W, Lekete-Lawson E, Nboyine JA, Ohene-Mensah G, Oppong-Mensah B, Nuamah HSA, van der Puije G, Mulema J. Horizon scanning for prioritising invasive alien species with potential to threaten agriculture and biodiversity in Ghana. NEOBIOTA 2022. [DOI: 10.3897/neobiota.71.72577] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022]
Abstract
Invasive alien species (IAS) continue to shape the global landscape through their effects on biological diversity and agricultural productivity. The effects are particularly pronounced in Sub-Saharan Africa, which has seen the arrival of many IAS in recent years. This has been attributed to porous borders, weak cross border biosecurity, and inadequate capacity to limit or stop invasions. Prediction and early detection of IAS, as well as mechanisms of containment and eradication, are needed in the fight against this global threat. Horizon scanning is an approach that enables gathering of information on risk and impact that can support IAS management. A study was conducted in Ghana to establish two ranked lists of potential invasive alien plant pest species that could be harmful to agriculture, forestry, and the environment, and to rank them according to their potential threat. The ultimate objective was to enable prioritization of actions including pest risk analysis, prevention, surveillance and contingency plans. Prioritisation was carried out using an adapted version of horizon scanning and consensus methods developed for ranking IAS worldwide. Following a horizon scan of invasive alien species not yet officially present in Ghana, a total of 110 arthropod and 64 pathogenic species were assessed through a simplified pest risk assessment. Sixteen species, of which 14 were arthropods and two pathogens, had not been recorded on the African continent at the time of assessment. The species recorded in Africa included 19 arthropod and 46 pathogenic species which were already recorded in the neighbouring countries of Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire, and Togo. The majority of arthropod species were likely to arrive as contaminants on commodities, followed by a sizable number which were likely to arrive as stowaways, while some species were capable of long distance dispersal unaided. The main actions suggested for species that scored highly included full pest risk analyses and, for species recorded in neighbouring countries, surveys to determine their presence in Ghana were recommended.
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Holt J, Leach AW. Linguistic variables as fuzzy sets to model uncertainty in the combined efficacy of multiple phytosanitary measures in pest risk analysis. Ecol Modell 2019. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2019.04.017] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
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Holt J, Leach AW, Johnson S, Tu DM, Nhu DT, Anh NT, Quinlan MM, Whittle PJL, Mengersen K, Mumford JD. Bayesian Networks to Compare Pest Control Interventions on Commodities Along Agricultural Production Chains. RISK ANALYSIS : AN OFFICIAL PUBLICATION OF THE SOCIETY FOR RISK ANALYSIS 2018; 38:297-310. [PMID: 28703498 DOI: 10.1111/risa.12852] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/16/2015] [Revised: 04/19/2017] [Accepted: 05/18/2017] [Indexed: 06/07/2023]
Abstract
The production of an agricultural commodity involves a sequence of processes: planting/growing, harvesting, sorting/grading, postharvest treatment, packing, and exporting. A Bayesian network has been developed to represent the level of potential infestation of an agricultural commodity by a specified pest along an agricultural production chain. It reflects the dependency of this infestation on the predicted level of pest challenge, the anticipated susceptibility of the commodity to the pest, the level of impact from pest control measures as designed, and any variation from that due to uncertainty in measure efficacy. The objective of this Bayesian network is to facilitate agreement between national governments of the exporters and importers on a set of phytosanitary measures to meet specific phytosanitary measure requirements to achieve target levels of protection against regulated pests. The model can be used to compare the performance of different combinations of measures under different scenarios of pest challenge, making use of available measure performance data. A case study is presented using a model developed for a fruit fly pest on dragon fruit in Vietnam; the model parameters and results are illustrative and do not imply a particular level of fruit fly infestation of these exports; rather, they provide the most likely, alternative, or worst-case scenarios of the impact of measures. As a means to facilitate agreement for trade, the model provides a framework to support communication between exporters and importers about any differences in perceptions of the risk reduction achieved by pest control measures deployed during the commodity production chain.
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Affiliation(s)
- J Holt
- Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London, Ascot, UK
| | - A W Leach
- Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London, Ascot, UK
| | - S Johnson
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Mathematical & Statistical Frontiers, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - D M Tu
- Plant Quarantine Diagnostic Centre, Plant Protection Department, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, Hanoi, Vietnam
| | - D T Nhu
- Plant Quarantine Diagnostic Centre, Plant Protection Department, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, Hanoi, Vietnam
| | - N T Anh
- Plant Quarantine Diagnostic Centre, Plant Protection Department, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, Hanoi, Vietnam
| | - M M Quinlan
- Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London, Ascot, UK
| | - P J L Whittle
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Mathematical & Statistical Frontiers, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - K Mengersen
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Mathematical & Statistical Frontiers, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - J D Mumford
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Mathematical & Statistical Frontiers, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
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Li J, Bao C, Wu D. How to Design Rating Schemes of Risk Matrices: A Sequential Updating Approach. RISK ANALYSIS : AN OFFICIAL PUBLICATION OF THE SOCIETY FOR RISK ANALYSIS 2018; 38:99-117. [PMID: 28403567 DOI: 10.1111/risa.12810] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/20/2016] [Revised: 01/15/2017] [Accepted: 02/24/2017] [Indexed: 06/07/2023]
Abstract
Risk matrices have been widely used as a risk evaluation tool in many fields due to their simplicity and intuitive nature. Designing a rating scheme, i.e., determining the number of ratings used in a risk matrix and assigning different ratings to different cells, is an essential part of risk matrix construction. However, most of the related literature has focused on applying a risk matrix to various fields, instead of researching how to design risk matrices. Based on the analysis of several current rules, we propose a new approach, namely, the sequential updating approach (SUA), to design the rating scheme of a risk matrix in a reliable way. In this article, we propose three principles and a rating algorithm based on these principles. The three principles, namely, adjusted weak consistency, consistent internality, and continuous screening, characterize a good rating scheme. The resulting rating scheme has been proven to be unique. A global rating algorithm is then proposed to create the design that satisfies the three principles. We then explore the performance of the SUA. An illustrative application is first given to explain the feasibility of our approach. The sensitivity analysis shows that our method captures a resolution-reliability tradeoff for decisionmakers in choosing an appropriate rating scheme for a risk matrix. Finally, we compare the designs based on the SUA and Cox's axioms, highlighting the advantages of the SUA.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jianping Li
- Institute of Policy and Management, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
- School of Public Policy and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Chunbing Bao
- Institute of Policy and Management, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
- School of Public Policy and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Dengsheng Wu
- Institute of Policy and Management, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
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Evaluation of a new screening-level risk assessment tool applied to non-indigenous marine invertebrates in Canadian coastal waters. Biol Invasions 2015. [DOI: 10.1007/s10530-015-1008-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/22/2022]
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Vatanpour S, Hrudey SE, Dinu I. Can Public Health Risk Assessment Using Risk Matrices Be Misleading? INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2015; 12:9575-88. [PMID: 26287224 PMCID: PMC4555299 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph120809575] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/11/2015] [Accepted: 08/11/2015] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
The risk assessment matrix is a widely accepted, semi-quantitative tool for assessing risks, and setting priorities in risk management. Although the method can be useful to promote discussion to distinguish high risks from low risks, a published critique described a problem when the frequency and severity of risks are negatively correlated. A theoretical analysis showed that risk predictions could be misleading. We evaluated a practical public health example because it provided experiential risk data that allowed us to assess the practical implications of the published concern that risk matrices would make predictions that are worse than random. We explored this predicted problem by constructing a risk assessment matrix using a public health risk scenario-Tainted blood transfusion infection risk-That provides negative correlation between harm frequency and severity. We estimated the risk from the experiential data and compared these estimates with those provided by the risk assessment matrix. Although we validated the theoretical concern, for these authentic experiential data, the practical scope of the problem was limited. The risk matrix has been widely used in risk assessment. This method should not be abandoned wholesale, but users must address the source of the problem, apply the risk matrix with a full understanding of this problem and use matrix predictions to inform, but not drive decision-making.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shabnam Vatanpour
- School of Public Health, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB T6G 1C9, Canada.
| | - Steve E Hrudey
- Faculty of Medicine & Dentistry, Division of Analytical and Environmental Toxicology, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB T6G 2G3, Canada.
| | - Irina Dinu
- School of Public Health, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB T6G 1C9, Canada.
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Ruan X, Yin Z, Frangopol DM. Risk Matrix Integrating Risk Attitudes Based on Utility Theory. RISK ANALYSIS : AN OFFICIAL PUBLICATION OF THE SOCIETY FOR RISK ANALYSIS 2015; 35:1437-1447. [PMID: 25958890 DOI: 10.1111/risa.12400] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/04/2023]
Abstract
Recent studies indicate that absence of the consideration of risk attitudes of decisionmakers in the risk matrix establishment process has become a major limitation. In order to evaluate risk in a more comprehensive manner, an approach to establish risk matrices that integrates risk attitudes based on utility theory is proposed. There are three main steps within this approach: (1) describing risk attitudes of decisionmakers by utility functions, (2) bridging the gap between utility functions and the risk matrix by utility indifference curves, and (3) discretizing utility indifference curves. A complete risk matrix establishment process based on practical investigations is introduced. This process utilizes decisionmakers' answers to questionnaires to formulate required boundary values for risk matrix establishment and utility functions that effectively quantify their respective risk attitudes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xin Ruan
- Department of Bridge Engineering, Tongji University, 1239 Siping Road, Shanghai, China
| | - Zhiyi Yin
- Department of Bridge Engineering, Tongji University, 1239 Siping Road, Shanghai, China
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, ATLSS Engineering Research Center, Lehigh University, 117 ATLSS Drive, Imbt Laboratories, Bethlehem, PA, USA
| | - Dan M Frangopol
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, ATLSS Engineering Research Center, Lehigh University, 117 ATLSS Drive, Imbt Laboratories, Bethlehem, PA, USA
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