Risk Reduction Modeling of High Pathogenicity Avian Influenza Virus Titers in Nonpasteurized Liquid Egg Obtained from Infected but Undetected Chicken Flocks

Surveillance and Sequestration Strategies to Reduce the Likelihood of Transporting Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Virus Contaminated Layer Manure

Movement and land application of manure is a known risk factor for secondary spread of avian influenza viruses. During an outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), movement of untreated (i.e., fresh) manure from premises known to be infected is prohibited. However, moving manure from apparently healthy (i.e., clinically normal) flocks may be critical, because some egg-layer facilities have limited on-site storage capacity. The objective of this analysis was to evaluate targeted dead-bird active surveillance real-time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR) testing protocols that could be used for the managed movement of manure from apparently healthy egg-layer flocks located in an HPAI control area. We also evaluated sequestration, which is the removal of manure from any contact with chickens, or with manure from other flocks, for a period of time, while the flock of origin is actively monitored for the presence of HPAI virus. We used stochastic simulation models to predict the chances of moving a load of contaminated manure, and the quantity of HPAI virus in an 8 metric ton (8000 kg) load of manure moved, before HPAI infection could be detected in the flock. We show that the likelihood of moving contaminated manure decreases as the length of the sequestration period increases from 3 to 10 days (e.g., for a typical contact rate, with a sample pool size of 11 swabs, the likelihood decreased from 48% to <1%). The total quantity of feces from HPAI-infectious birds in a manure load moved also decreases. Results also indicate that active surveillance protocols using 11 swabs per pool result in a lower likelihood of moving contaminated manure relative to protocols using five swabs per pool. Simulation model results from this study are useful to inform further risk evaluation of HPAI spread through pathways associated with manure movement and further evaluation of biosecurity measures intended to reduce those risks.

Avian influenza

Previous introductions of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) to the EU were most likely via migratory wild birds. A mathematical model has been developed which indicated that virus amplification and spread may take place when wild bird populations of sufficient size within EU become infected. Low pathogenic avian influenza virus (LPAIV) may reach similar maximum prevalence levels in wild bird populations to HPAIV but the risk of LPAIV infection of a poultry holding was estimated to be lower than that of HPAIV. Only few non-wild bird pathways were identified having a non-negligible risk of AI introduction. The transmission rate between animals within a flock is assessed to be higher for HPAIV than LPAIV. In very few cases, it could be proven that HPAI outbreaks were caused by intrinsic mutation of LPAIV to HPAIV but current knowledge does not allow a prediction as to if, and when this could occur. In gallinaceous poultry, passive surveillance through notification of suspicious clinical signs/mortality was identified as the most effective method for early detection of HPAI outbreaks. For effective surveillance in anseriform poultry, passive surveillance through notification of suspicious clinical signs/mortality needs to be accompanied by serological surveillance and/or a virological surveillance programme of birds found dead (bucket sampling). Serosurveillance is unfit for early warning of LPAI outbreaks at the individual holding level but could be effective in tracing clusters of LPAIV-infected holdings. In wild birds, passive surveillance is an appropriate method for HPAIV surveillance if the HPAIV infections are associated with mortality whereas active wild bird surveillance has a very low efficiency for detecting HPAIV. Experts estimated and emphasised the effect of implementing specific biosecurity measures on reducing the probability of AIV entering into a poultry holding. Human diligence is pivotal to select, implement and maintain specific, effective biosecurity measures.

Poultry food products--a source of avian influenza virus transmission to humans?

Global human mobility and intercontinental connectivity, expansion of livestock production and encroachment of wildlife habitats by invasive agricultural land use contribute to shape the complexity of influenza epidemiology. The OneHealth approach integrates these and further elements into considerations to improve disease control and prevention. Food of animal origin for human consumption is another integral aspect; if produced from infected livestock such items may act as vehicles of spread of animal pathogens, and, in case of zoonotic agents, as a potential human health hazard. Notifiable zoonotic avian influenza viruses (AIV) have become entrenched in poultry populations in several Asian and northern African countries since 2003. Highly pathogenic (HP) AIV (e.g. H5N1) cause extensive poultry mortality and severe economic losses. HPAIV and low pathogenic AIV (e.g. H7N9) with zoonotic propensities pose risks for human health. More than 1500 human cases of AIV infection have been reported, mainly from regions with endemically infected poultry. Intense human exposure to AIV-infected poultry, e.g. during rearing, slaughtering or processing of poultry, is a major risk factor for acquiring AIV infection. In contrast, human infections through consumption of AIV-contaminated food have not been substantiated. Heating poultry products according to kitchen standards (core temperatures ≥70°C, ≥10 s) rapidly inactivates AIV infectivity and renders fully cooked products safe. Nevertheless, concerted efforts must ensure that poultry products potentially contaminated with zoonotic AIV do not reach the food chain. Stringent and sustained OneHealth measures are required to better control and eventually eradicate, HPAIV from endemic regions.