Residents' Reactions to Earthquake Early Warnings in Japan

Public response to government alerts saves lives during Russian invasion of Ukraine

War is the cause of tremendous human suffering. To reduce such harm, governments have developed tools to alert civilians of imminent threats. Whether these systems are effective remains largely unknown. We study the introduction of an innovative smartphone application that notifies civilians of impending military operations developed in coordination with the Ukrainian government after the Russian invasion. We leverage quasi-experimental variation in the timing of more than 3,000 alerts to study civilian sheltering behavior, using high-frequency geolocation pings tied to 17 million mobile devices, 60% of the connected population in Ukraine. We find that, overall, civilians respond sharply to alerts, quickly seeking shelter. These rapid postalert changes in population movement attenuate over time, however, in a manner that cannot be explained by adaptive sheltering behavior or calibration to the signal quality of alerts. Responsiveness is weakest when civilians have been living under an extended state of emergency, consistent with the presence of an alert fatigue effect. Our results suggest that 35 to 45% of observed civilian casualties were avoided because of public responsiveness to the messaging system. Importantly, an additional 8 to 15% of civilian casualties observed during the later periods of the conflict could have been avoided with sustained public responsiveness to government alerts. We provide evidence that increasing civilians' risk salience through targeted government messaging can increase responsiveness, suggesting a potential policy lever for sustaining public engagement during prolonged episodes of conflict.

Integrating earthquake early warnings into business continuity and organisational resilience: lessons learned from Mexico City

Earthquake early warning (EEW) is becoming a popular tool for mitigating earthquake-induced losses. However, the current literature separates EEW technical components and their operational and behavioural implications. This paper investigates how EEW can be integrated into business continuity practices, organisational resilience, and disaster risk reduction (DRR). A mixed methods approach is applied to analyse EEW perceptions in the case-study context of Mexico City, Mexico, which is characterised by a high level of seismic hazard and social and physical exposure/vulnerability. The dataset includes evidence from 15 semi-structured interviews with representatives of the public and private sectors, such as governments and enterprises, and 78 valid questionnaires compiled by local organisations, including civil protection and education institutions. The results reveal inconsistencies between technical EEW methodologies and their integration into three core domains of organisational practice: accountability, governance, and jurisdiction; standardisation of plans and procedures; training and education. Finally, open challenges for future research are highlighted.

“Saving Precious Seconds”—A Novel Approach to Implementing a Low-Cost Earthquake Early Warning System with Node-Level Detection and Alert Generation

This paper presents findings from ongoing research that explores the ability to use Micro-Electromechanical Systems (MEMS)-based technologies and various digital communication protocols for earthquake early warning (EEW). The paper proposes a step-by-step guide to developing a unique EEW network architecture driven by a Software-Defined Wide Area Network (SD-WAN)-based hole-punching technology consisting of MEMS-based, low-cost accelerometers hosted by the general public. In contrast with most centralised cloud-based approaches, a node-level decentralised data-processing is used to generate warnings with the support of a modified Propagation of Local Undamped Motion (PLUM)-based EEW algorithm. With several hypothetical earthquake scenarios, experiments were conducted to evaluate the system latencies of the proposed decentralised EEW architecture and its performance was compared with traditional centralised EEW architecture. The results from sixty simulations show that the SD-WAN-based hole-punching architecture supported by the Transmission Control Protocol (TCP) creates the optimum alerting conditions. Furthermore, the results provide clear evidence to show that the decentralised EEW system architecture can outperform the centralised EEW architecture and can save valuable seconds when generating EEW, leading to a longer warning time for the end-user. This paper contributes to the EEW literature by proposing a novel EEW network architecture.