Quantitative Risk Assessment on the Transport of Dangerous Goods Vehicles Through Unidirectional Road Tunnels: An Evaluation of the Risk of Transporting Hydrogen

Risk incident analyses in the transportation of anhydrous ammonia as an emerging clean energy resource

Anhydrous ammonia has seen a rapid increase in demand due to recent developments in clean energy technologies. As it is a potential carrier of hydrogen, the transportation industry is currently facing significant logistic challenges as well as safety risks. Based on the causes and effects, this study categorizes incident patterns based on the historical incidents from 1971 to 2021 in the United States during transportation. Analysis of temporal patterns revealed that government regulations and improvement of safety infrastructures have made the biggest impact on lowering incident rates. Spatial analysis methods are also applied to understand the relationships between these incidents and spatial factors, such as land area, number of ammonia production facilities, total average production capacity, and total length of freight railway and highway in each US state. The spatial and temporal patterns and interpretations provide safety references to manage the growing hazardous transport in clean energy.

Risks in the design of regional hydrogen hub systems: A review and commentary

Early investments in regional hydrogen systems carry two distinct types of risk: (1) economic risk that projects will not be financially viable, resulting in stranded capital, and (2) environmental risk that projects will not deliver deep reductions in greenhouse gas emissions and through leaks, perhaps even contribute to climate change. This article systematically reviews the literature and performs analysis to describe both types of risk in the context of recent efforts in the United States and worldwide to support the development of "hydrogen hubs" or regional systems of hydrogen production and use. We review estimates of hydrogen production costs and projections of how future costs are likely to change over time for different production routes, environmental impacts related to hydrogen and methane leaks, and the availability and effectiveness of carbon capture and sequestration. Finally, we consider system-wide risks associated with evolving regional industrial structures, including job displacement and underinvestment in shared components, such as refueling. We conclude by suggesting a set of design principles that should be applied in developing early hydrogen hubs if they are to be a successful step toward creating a decarbonized energy system.

Quantitative risk assessment of China's first liquid hydrogen refueling station

Hydrogen refueling stations (HRSs) are among the most important infrastructures for fuel cell vehicles. However, the safety issue of HRSs has become a key constraint to the wide application and development of hydrogen energy. This article presents a quantitative risk assessment of the first liquid HRS (LHRS) in China and conducts a comprehensive assessment in terms of both individual (IR) and societal risks (SRs). The results showed that both the IRs and SRs related to the LHRS exceeded the risk acceptance criteria. The rupture of the flexible hose of the dispenser and the leak from the compressor are the main contributors to these risks. On the other hand, implementing appropriate mitigation measures on the level of the LHRS dispenser and compressor, including the addition of breakaway couplings in the flexible hose of the dispenser, the installation of hydrogen detection sensors, the arrangement of automatic and manual emergency shutdown buttons, and the elevation of the compressor, is capable of reducing the risk of the LHRS to be within the risk acceptance criteria.

A Simultaneous Analysis of the User Safety and Resilience of a Twin-Tube Road Tunnel

This study complements our previous work with a simultaneous analysis of user safety and road tunnel resilience. We developed a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model and simulated the corresponding egress process to evaluate the risk level of users exposed to different types of fire, such those which might occur on the undisrupted lane of a partially closed tube tunnel due to a traffic accident, or in the adjacent tube when used for two-way traffic in the case of the complete closure of the tube involved in the accident. The CFD results showed that: (i) better environmental conditions were found with the partial closure of the tube rather than the complete one; (ii) additional benefits can be achieved by activating variable message signs (VMSs) that suggest an alternative itinerary for heavy good vehicles (HGVs) only; (iii) safety issues for human health may arise only in the case of a 100 MW fire, occurring during the complete closure of the tube and the use of the parallel one for two-way traffic. The findings of the CFD simulations were subsequently used to perform a quantitative risk analysis (QRA) based on a probabilistic approach. The findings of the QRA were found to be consistent with those obtained by the tunnel resilience analysis. In particular, the lowest risk level for user safety was found with the partial closure of the tube instead of the complete one, and by activating the VMSs to redirect HGVs only towards an alternative itinerary. This finding was found to correspond to a higher resilience index of the tunnel (i.e., a lower resilience loss due to a traffic accident occurring in a tube). This study increases our knowledge on certain relevant aspects of the operating conditions of tunnels and can serve as a possible reference for tunnel management agencies (TMAs) in their choice of the most appropriate arrangement to recover the functionality of a tunnel taking into account both user safety and resilience at the same time.

Resilience Assessment of a Twin-Tube Motorway Tunnel in the Event of a Traffic Accident or Fire in a Tube

We have developed a traffic simulation model to quantitatively assess the resilience of a twin-tube motorway tunnel in the event of traffic accident or fire occurring within a tube. The motorway section containing the tunnel was investigated for different possible scenarios including its partial or complete closure. The functionality of the road infrastructure, in the case of an accident in one of the two tubes (each tube presents two lanes with unidirectional traffic under ordinary conditions), was assumed to be recovered both by using the remaining undisrupted lane of the tube interested by the disruptive event (only one lane is closed) and reorganizing the traffic flow by utilizing the adjacent tube for bi-directional traffic (both lanes are closed). The effects of an alternative itinerary individualized in the corresponding open road network were also examined. The level of functionality of the system during the period in which the tube is partially or completely closed was computed as the ratio between the average travel time required to reach a given destination from a specific origin before and after the occurrence of the disruptive event. The resilience metrics were assumed to be resilience loss, recovery speed, and resilience index. The best scenario was found to be the partial closure of the tube in contrast to the complete one. However, in order to contain the negative effects on the functionality of the motorway section due to the complete closure of the tube, it is worth highlighting how the traffic by-pass before the entrance portal of the closed tube should be open in a very short time by the tunnel management team to allow for the quick use of the adjacent tube for bi-directional traffic. An additional improvement, with reference exclusively to passenger cars traveling through the adjacent unblocked tube, might be obtained by activating the variable message signs, located at a sufficient distance from the motorway junction before the entrance portal of the closed tube, in order to suggest an alternative route to heavy good vehicles (HGVs) only. Whereas, when the alternative itinerary is used by all vehicles traveling towards the blocked tube (i.e., both passenger cars and HGVs), this redirectioning of the motorway traffic flow was found to be characterized by an excessive travel time, with it therefore not being advisable. The results obtained might be useful as a decision-making support tool aimed at improving the resilience of twin-tube tunnels.

Improving Risk Assessment for Transporting Dangerous Goods through European Road Tunnels: A Delphi Study

Managing the transportation of dangerous goods (DG) through road tunnels is of great importance since it is associated with a serious risk of accidents. The consequences of an accident involving DG, especially in the closed tunnel environment, might be more significant and even more catastrophic compared to the same accident occurring on an open road. This article presents the Greek experience regarding the application of quantitative risk assessment (QRA) methods for the transportation of DG through Greek road tunnels. The modified Delphi method, with the participation of nine experts, is employed to investigate the obstacles to successfully conforming with the mandatory European Union regulatory framework that applies to transport operations within the Trans-European road network. Recommendations are made to improve the applied QRA approach, to facilitate the cooperation between tunnel managers and emergency services, to communicate lessons learned and to enhance the training of risk assessors.

A Numerical Study for Assessing the Risk Reduction Using an Emergency Vehicle Equipped with a Micronized Water System for Contrasting the Fire Growth Phase in Road Tunnels

We performed Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) modeling, and simulated a people evacuation process from a tunnel in the event of a fire, for evaluating the potentialities of using, as a temporary safety measure, an emergency vehicle equipped with a micronized water system for contrasting the fire growth phase. The structure investigated is a one-way road tunnel with only natural ventilation, and with a length less than 1000 m. The tunnel is assumed at present to be affected by refurbishment works for making it comply with the minimum safety requirements of the European Directive 2004/54/EC. In particular, it is considered that it has not yet been provided with hydrants, and with the sidewalks and the emergency exit which are still under construction. This means that users are forced to use the road carriageway for escaping from the tunnel if a fire occurs. The CFD findings have shown that the use of the micronized water system might lead to a significant improvement in the environmental conditions along the escape route since the tenability limits of temperature, radiant heat flux, CO and CO2 concentration were found to be better satisfied. Additionally, the visibility distance was shown to increase, even though it was found to be higher than the acceptable threshold value only in a few cases. However, the quantitative risk analysis based on a probabilistic approach, which was combined with a method currently used in Europe for assessing the risk due to the transit of only dangerous goods, shows that the final cumulative F-N curves related to the micronized water system always lie below those without the mentioned system, and in addition, they are always contained within the limits of the ALARP region. It is to be stressed that our paper might represent a reference in showing the effectiveness of the micronized water system as a temporary safety measure. However, it is desirable that the Tunnel Management Agencies accelerate the refurbishment works for making road tunnels definitively safer for users in a short period of time.

Risk Analysis of One-Way Road Tunnel Tube Used for Bi-Directional Traffic under Fire Scenarios

We have set up a Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) modeling, and performed a user evacuation model, for evaluating the risk level in one-way road tunnel tube when used for bi-directional traffic in particular circumstances. The simulations were carried out by considering both peak-hour traffic volumes during the day and off-peak hours overnight. The investigated one-way tube is ventilated by natural ventilation only, and has a length of less than 1000 m. With reference to the worst environmental conditions, which are downstream of the fire due to the direction of natural ventilation, the consequences on escaping users, caused by different types of burning vehicles located in various longitudinal positions along the tube, are shown. The results prove the positive effects on environmental conditions (in terms of temperature, visibility distance, CO and CO2 concentration) along the user evacuation path when the tube is used for bi-directional traffic at night rather than daytime. Only for the case of 100 MW fire and in the proximity of the exit portal, the last escaping user might be affected by a visibility distance and CO concentration exceeding the threshold values. In this special case, countermeasures for reducing smoke concentration or emergency services at the portals should be provided. However, the quantitative risk analysis, based on a probabilistic approach, showed that the F-N curve of the tube when used for bi-directional traffic with reference to the night always lies below that of the daytime, and the reduction in the risk level is between 80 and 100% for the night traffic compared to daytime one. It is to be focused on the fact that our modeling may represent a reference in investigating the effects of hourly traffic volumes on the risk level in tunnels and may help decisionmakers in understanding when to temporarily close a tube for maintenance, repair, or rehabilitation activities and use the adjacent tube for bi-directional traffic.