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Trainer AH, Goode E, Hoskins CN, Wheeler JCW, Best S. Calibrating variant curation by clinical context based on factors that influence patients' tolerance of uncertainty. Genet Med 2023; 25:100982. [PMID: 37724515 DOI: 10.1016/j.gim.2023.100982] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/27/2023] [Revised: 09/05/2023] [Accepted: 09/11/2023] [Indexed: 09/21/2023] Open
Abstract
PURPOSE Shared decision making manages genomic uncertainty by integrating molecular and clinical uncertainties with patient values to craft a person-centered management plan. Laboratories seek genomic report consistency, agnostic to clinical context. Molecular reports often mask laboratory-managed uncertainties from clinical decision making. Better integration of these uncertainty management strategies requires a nuanced understanding of patients' perceptions and reactions to test uncertainties. We explored patients' tolerance to variant uncertainty in 3 parameters: (1) relative causal significance, (2) risk accuracy, and (3) classification validity. METHOD Deliberative forums were undertaken with 18 patients with predictive testing experience. Uncertainty deliberations were elicited for each parameter. A thematic framework was first developed, and then mapped to whether they justified tolerance to more or less parameter-specific uncertainty. RESULTS Six identified themes mapped to clinical and personal domains. These domains generated opposing forces when calibrating uncertainty. Personal themes justified tolerance of higher uncertainty and clinical themes lower uncertainty. Decision making in uncertainty focused on reducing management regret. Open communication increased tolerance of classification validity and risk accuracy uncertainty. Using these data, we have developed a nascent clinical algorithm integrating molecular uncertainty with clinical context through a targeted communication framework. CONCLUSION Maximizing test utility necessitates context-specific recalibration of uncertainty management and communication.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alison H Trainer
- Parkville Familial Cancer Centre, Peter MacCallum Cancer Centre, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Department of Medicine, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Department of Genomic Medicine, Royal Melbourne Hospital, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Sir Peter MacCallum Department of Oncology, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
| | - Erin Goode
- Parkville Familial Cancer Centre, Peter MacCallum Cancer Centre, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Department of Genomic Medicine, Royal Melbourne Hospital, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Cass N Hoskins
- Parkville Familial Cancer Centre, Peter MacCallum Cancer Centre, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Department of Genomic Medicine, Royal Melbourne Hospital, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Jack C W Wheeler
- Parkville Familial Cancer Centre, Peter MacCallum Cancer Centre, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Department of Genomic Medicine, Royal Melbourne Hospital, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Stephanie Best
- Department of Health Services Research, Peter MacCallum Cancer Centre, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Sir Peter MacCallum Department of Oncology, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Victorian Comprehensive Cancer Centre Alliance, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Australian Genomics, Murdoch Childrens Research Institute, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
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Janzwood S. Confidence deficits and reducibility: Toward a coherent conceptualization of uncertainty level. RISK ANALYSIS : AN OFFICIAL PUBLICATION OF THE SOCIETY FOR RISK ANALYSIS 2023; 43:2004-2016. [PMID: 35989079 DOI: 10.1111/risa.14008] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/24/2021] [Revised: 06/14/2022] [Accepted: 06/20/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
Outside of the field of risk analysis, an important theoretical conversation on the slippery concept of uncertainty has unfolded over the last 40 years within the adjacent field of environmental risk. This literature has become increasingly standardized behind the tripartite distinction between uncertainty location, the nature of uncertainty, and uncertainty level, popularized by the "W&H framework." This article introduces risk theorists and practitioners to the conceptual literature on uncertainty with the goal of catalyzing further development and clarification of the uncertainty concept within the field of risk analysis. It presents two critiques of the W&H framework's dimension of uncertainty level-the dimension that attempts to define the characteristics separating greater uncertainties from lesser uncertainties. First, I argue the framework's conceptualization of uncertainty level lacks a clear and consistent epistemological position and fails to acknowledge or reconcile the tensions between Bayesian and frequentist perspectives present within the framework. This article reinterprets the dimension of uncertainty level from a Bayesian perspective, which understands uncertainty as a mental phenomenon arising from "confidence deficits" as opposed to the ill-defined notion of "knowledge deficits" present in the framework. And second, I elaborate the undertheorized concept of uncertainty "reducibility." These critiques inform a clarified conceptualization of uncertainty level that can be integrated with risk analysis concepts and usefully applied by modelers and decisionmakers engaged in model-based decision support.
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Affiliation(s)
- Scott Janzwood
- Cascade Institute, Royal Roads University, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada
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