Objective priors in the empirical Bayes framework

Stochastic Character Mapping, Bayesian Model Selection, and Biosynthetic Pathways Shed New Light on the Evolution of Habitat Preference in Cyanobacteria

Cyanobacteria are the only prokaryotes to have evolved oxygenic photosynthesis paving the way for complex life. Studying the evolution and ecological niche of cyanobacteria and their ancestors is crucial for understanding the intricate dynamics of biosphere evolution. These organisms frequently deal with environmental stressors such as salinity and drought, and they employ compatible solutes as a mechanism to cope with these challenges. Compatible solutes are small molecules that help maintain cellular osmotic balance in high-salinity environments, such as marine waters. Their production plays a crucial role in salt tolerance, which, in turn, influences habitat preference. Among the 5 known compatible solutes produced by cyanobacteria (sucrose, trehalose, glucosylglycerol, glucosylglycerate, and glycine betaine), their synthesis varies between individual strains. In this study, we work in a Bayesian stochastic mapping framework, integrating multiple sources of information about compatible solute biosynthesis in order to predict the ancestral habitat preference of Cyanobacteria. Through extensive model selection analyses and statistical tests for correlation, we identify glucosylglycerol and glucosylglycerate as the most significantly correlated with habitat preference, while trehalose exhibits the weakest correlation. Additionally, glucosylglycerol, glucosylglycerate, and glycine betaine show high loss/gain rate ratios, indicating their potential role in adaptability, while sucrose and trehalose are less likely to be lost due to their additional cellular functions. Contrary to previous findings, our analyses predict that the last common ancestor of Cyanobacteria (living at around 3180 Ma) had a 97% probability of a high salinity habitat preference and was likely able to synthesize glucosylglycerol and glucosylglycerate. Nevertheless, cyanobacteria likely colonized low-salinity environments shortly after their origin, with an 89% probability of the first cyanobacterium with low-salinity habitat preference arising prior to the Great Oxygenation Event (2460 Ma). Stochastic mapping analyses provide evidence of cyanobacteria inhabiting early marine habitats, aiding in the interpretation of the geological record. Our age estimate of ~2590 Ma for the divergence of 2 major cyanobacterial clades (Macro- and Microcyanobacteria) suggests that these were likely significant contributors to primary productivity in marine habitats in the lead-up to the Great Oxygenation Event, and thus played a pivotal role in triggering the sudden increase in atmospheric oxygen.