Potential Intercontinental Movement of Influenza A(H7N9) Virus into North America by Wild Birds: Application of a Rapid Assessment Framework

Development of a Dissemination Platform for Spatiotemporal and Phylogenetic Analysis of Avian Infectious Bronchitis Virus

Infecting large portions of the global poultry populations, the avian infectious bronchitis virus (IBV) remains a major economic burden in North America. With more than 30 serotypes globally distributed, Arkansas, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, and Massachusetts are among the most predominant serotypes in the United States. Even though vaccination is widely used, the high mutation rate exhibited by IBV is continuously triggering the emergence of new viral strains and hindering control and prevention measures. For that reason, targeted strategies based on constantly updated information on the IBV circulation are necessary. Here, we sampled IBV-infected farms from one US state and collected and analyzed 65 genetic sequences coming from three different lineages along with the immunization information of each sampled farm. Phylodynamic analyses showed that IBV dispersal velocity was 12.3 km/year. The majority of IBV infections appeared to have derived from the introduction of the Arkansas DPI serotype, and the Arkansas DPI and Georgia 13 were the predominant serotypes. When analyzed against IBV sequences collected across the United States and deposited in the GenBank database, the most likely viral origin of our sequences was from the states of Alabama, Georgia, and Delaware. Information about vaccination showed that the MILDVAC-MASS+ARK vaccine was applied on 26% of the farms. Using a publicly accessible open-source tool for real-time interactive tracking of pathogen spread and evolution, we analyzed the spatiotemporal spread of IBV and developed an online reporting dashboard. Overall, our work demonstrates how the combination of genetic and spatial information could be used to track the spread and evolution of poultry diseases, providing timely information to the industry. Our results could allow producers and veterinarians to monitor in near-real time the current IBV strain circulating, making it more informative, for example, in vaccination-related decisions.

Animal migrations and parasitism: reciprocal effects within a unified framework

Migrations, i.e. the recurring, roundtrip movement of animals between distant and distinct habitats, occur among diverse metazoan taxa. Although traditionally linked to avoidance of food shortages, predators or harsh abiotic conditions, there is increasing evidence that parasites may have played a role in the evolution of migration. On the one hand, selective pressures from parasites can favour migratory strategies that allow either avoidance of infections or recovery from them. On the other hand, infected animals incur physiological costs that may limit their migratory abilities, affecting their speed, the timing of their departure or arrival, and/or their condition upon reaching their destination. During migration, reduced immunocompetence as well as exposure to different external conditions and parasite infective stages can influence infection dynamics. Here, we first explore whether parasites represent extra costs for their hosts during migration. We then review how infection dynamics and infection risk are affected by host migration, thereby considering parasites as both causes and consequences of migration. We also evaluate the comparative evidence testing the hypothesis that migratory species harbour a richer parasite fauna than their closest free-living relatives, finding general support for the hypothesis. Then we consider the implications of host migratory behaviour for parasite ecology and evolution, which have received much less attention. Parasites of migratory hosts may achieve much greater spatial dispersal than those of non-migratory hosts, expanding their geographical range, and providing more opportunities for host-switching. Exploiting migratory hosts also exerts pressures on the parasite to adapt its phenology and life-cycle duration, including the timing of major developmental, reproduction and transmission events. Natural selection may even favour parasites that manipulate their host's migratory strategy in ways that can enhance parasite transmission. Finally, we propose a simple integrated framework based on eco-evolutionary feedbacks to consider the reciprocal selection pressures acting on migratory hosts and their parasites. Host migratory strategies and parasite traits evolve in tandem, each acting on the other along two-way causal paths and feedback loops. Their likely adjustments to predicted climate change will be understood best from this coevolutionary perspective.

BOARD INVITED REVIEW: Prospects for improving management of animal disease introductions using disease-dynamic models

Management and policy decisions are continually made to mitigate disease introductions in animal populations despite often limited surveillance data or knowledge of disease transmission processes. Science-based management is broadly recognized as leading to more effective decisions yet application of models to actively guide disease surveillance and mitigate risks remains limited. Disease-dynamic models are an efficient method of providing information for management decisions because of their ability to integrate and evaluate multiple, complex processes simultaneously while accounting for uncertainty common in animal diseases. Here we review disease introduction pathways and transmission processes crucial for informing disease management and models at the interface of domestic animals and wildlife. We describe how disease transmission models can improve disease management and present a conceptual framework for integrating disease models into the decision process using adaptive management principles. We apply our framework to a case study of African swine fever virus in wild and domestic swine to demonstrate how disease-dynamic models can improve mitigation of introduction risk. We also identify opportunities to improve the application of disease models to support decision-making to manage disease at the interface of domestic and wild animals. First, scientists must focus on objective-driven models providing practical predictions that are useful to those managing disease. In order for practical model predictions to be incorporated into disease management a recognition that modeling is a means to improve management and outcomes is important. This will be most successful when done in a cross-disciplinary environment that includes scientists and decision-makers representing wildlife and domestic animal health. Lastly, including economic principles of value-of-information and cost-benefit analysis in disease-dynamic models can facilitate more efficient management decisions and improve communication of model forecasts. Integration of disease-dynamic models into management and decision-making processes is expected to improve surveillance systems, risk mitigations, outbreak preparedness, and outbreak response activities.

Identifying key bird species and geographical hotspots of avian influenza A (H7N9) virus in China

BACKGROUND

In China since the first human infection of avian influenza A (H7N9) virus was identified in 2013, it has caused serious public health concerns due to its wide spread and high mortality rate. Evidence shows that bird migration plays an essential role in global spread of avian influenza viruses. Accordingly, in this paper, we aim to identify key bird species and geographical hotspots that are relevant to the transmission of avian influenza A (H7N9) virus in China.

METHODS

We first conducted phylogenetic analysis on 626 viral sequences of avian influenza A (H7N9) virus isolated in chicken, which were collected from the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data (GISAID), to reveal geographical spread and molecular evolution of the virus in China. Then, we adopted the cross correlation function (CCF) to explore the relationship between the identified influenza A (H7N9) cases and the spatiotemporal distribution of migratory birds. Here, the spatiotemporal distribution of bird species was generated based on bird observation data collected from China Bird Reports, which consists of 157 272 observation records about 1145 bird species. Finally, we employed a kernel density estimator to identify geographical hotspots of bird habitat/stopover that are relevant to the influenza A (H7N9) infections.

RESULTS

Phylogenetic analysis reveals the evolutionary and geographical patterns of influenza A (H7N9) infections, where cases in the same or nearby municipality/provinces are clustered together with small evolutionary differences. Moreover, three epidemic waves in chicken along the East Asian-Australasian flyway in China are distinguished from the phylogenetic tree. The CCF analysis identifies possible migratory bird species that are relevant to the influenza A(H7N9) infections in Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, Jiangxi, and Guangdong in China, where the six municipality/provinces account for 91.2% of the total number of isolated H7N9 cases in chicken in GISAID. Based on the spatial distribution of identified bird species, geographical hotspots are further estimated and illustrated within these typical municipality/provinces.

CONCLUSIONS

In this paper, we have identified key bird species and geographical hotspots that are relevant to the spread of influenza A (H7N9) virus. The results and findings could provide sentinel signal and evidence for active surveillance, as well as strategic control of influenza A (H7N9) transmission in China.

Genetic evidence for the intercontinental movement of avian influenza viruses possessing North American-origin nonstructural gene allele B into South Korea

Avian influenza viruses (AIVs) are genetically separated by geographical barriers, resulting in the independent evolution of North American and Eurasian lineages. In the present study, to determine whether AIVs possessing the North American-origin nonstructural (NS) gene were previously introduced into South Korea, we performed a genetic analysis of AIVs isolated from fecal samples of migratory birds. We detected seven viruses possessing the North American-origin NS allele B among 413 AIV-positive samples obtained during AI surveillance between 2012 and 2017. We found evidence for the intercontinental transmission of at least three genetically distinct clusters of the B allele of the North American-origin NS gene into Eurasia at a low frequency. The host species of three viruses were identified as the greater white-fronted goose (Anser albifrons) using a DNA barcoding technique. Moreover, we used GPS-CDMA-based telemetry to determine the migration route of the greater white-fronted goose between the Far East of Russia and South Korea and found that this species may play an important role as an intermediate vector in the intercontinental transmission of AIVs. To improve our understanding of the role of wild birds in the ecology of AIVs, advanced AIV surveillance is required in the Far East of Russia as well as in Alaska region of Beringia accompanied by host identification and wild bird tracking.

Identification of migratory bird flyways in North America using community detection on biological networks

Migratory behavior of waterfowl populations in North America has traditionally been broadly characterized by four north-south flyways, and these flyways have been central to the management of waterfowl populations for more than 80 yr. However, previous flyway characterizations are not easily updated with current bird movement data and fail to provide assessments of the importance of specific geographical regions to the identification of flyways. Here, we developed a network model of migratory movement for four waterfowl species, Mallard (Anas platyrhnchos), Northern Pintail (A. acuta), American Green-winged Teal (A. carolinensis), and Canada Goose (Branta canadensis), in North America, using bird band and recovery data. We then identified migratory flyways using a community detection algorithm and characterized the importance of smaller geographic regions in identifying flyways using a novel metric, the consolidation factor. We identified four main flyways for Mallards, Northern Pintails, and American Green-winged Teal, with the flyway identification in Canada Geese exhibiting higher complexity. For Mallards, flyways were relatively consistent through time. However, consolidation factors revealed that for Mallards and Green-winged Teal, the presumptive Mississippi flyway was potentially a zone of high mixing between other flyways. Our results demonstrate that the network approach provides a robust method for flyway identification that is widely applicable given the relatively minimal data requirements and is easily updated with future movement data to reflect changes in flyway definitions and management goals.

Nomenclature updates resulting from the evolution of avian influenza A(H5) virus clades 2.1.3.2a, 2.2.1, and 2.3.4 during 2013-2014

Aim

The A/goose/Guangdong/1/96-like hemagglutinin (HA) genes of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) A(H5) viruses have continued to rapidly evolve since the most recent update to the H5 clade nomenclature by the WHO/OIE/FAO H5N1 Evolution Working Group. New clades diverging beyond established boundaries need to be identified and designated accordingly.

Method

Hemagglutinin sequences deposited in publicly accessible databases up to December 31, 2014, were analyzed by phylogenetic and average pairwise distance methods to identify new clades that merit nomenclature changes.

Results

Three new clade designations were recommended based on division of clade 2·1·3·2a (Indonesia), 2·2·1 (Egypt), and 2·3·4 (widespread detection in Asia, Europe, and North America) that includes newly emergent HPAI virus subtypes H5N2, H5N3, H5N5, H5N6, and H5N8.

Conclusion

Continued global surveillance for HPAI A(H5) viruses in all host species and timely reporting of sequence data will be critical to quickly identify new clades and assess their potential impact on human and animal health.

Wild bird surveillance for highly pathogenic avian influenza H5 in North America

It is unknown how the current Asian origin highly pathogenic avian influenza H5 viruses arrived, but these viruses are now poised to become endemic in North America. Wild birds harbor these viruses and have dispersed them at regional scales. What is unclear is how the viruses may be moving from the wild bird reservoir into poultry holdings. Active surveillance of live wild birds is likely the best way to determine the true distribution of these viruses. We also suggest that sampling be focused on regions with the greatest risk for poultry losses and attempt to define the mechanisms of transfer to enhance biosecurity. Responding to the recent outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza in North America requires an efficient plan with clear objectives and potential management outcomes.

Identification of novel compounds against an R294K substitution of influenza A (H7N9) virus using ensemble based drug virtual screening

Influenza virus H7N9 foremost emerged in China in 2013 and killed hundreds of people in Asia since they possessed all mutations that enable them to resist to all existing influenza drugs, resulting in high mortality to human. In the effort to identify novel inhibitors combat resistant strains of influenza virus H7N9; we performed virtual screening targeting the Neuraminidase (NA) protein against natural compounds of traditional Chinese medicine database (TCM) and ZINC natural products. Compounds expressed high binding affinity to the target protein was then evaluated for molecular properties to determine drug-like molecules. 4 compounds showed their binding energy less than -11 Kcal/mol were selected for molecular dynamics (MD) simulation to capture intermolecular interactions of ligand-protein complexes. The molecular mechanics/Poisson-Boltzmann surface area (MM/PBSA) method was utilized to estimate binding free energy of the complex. In term of stability, NA-7181 (IUPAC namely {9-Hydroxy-10-[3-(trifluoromrthyl) cyclohexyl]-4.8-diazatricyclo [6.4.0.02,6]dodec-4-yl}(perhydro-1H-inden-5-yl)formaldehyde) achieved stable conformation after 20 ns and 27 ns for ligand and protein root mean square deviation, respectively. In term of binding free energy, 7181 gave the negative value of -30.031 (KJ/mol) indicating the compound obtained a favourable state in the active site of the protein.