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Bouchez-Zacria M, Ruette S, Richomme C, Lesellier S, Payne A, Boschiroli ML, Courcoul A, Durand B. Analysis of a multi-type resurgence of Mycobacterium bovis in cattle and badgers in Southwest France, 2007-2019. Vet Res 2023; 54:41. [PMID: 37138355 PMCID: PMC10158257 DOI: 10.1186/s13567-023-01168-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/09/2022] [Accepted: 03/30/2023] [Indexed: 05/05/2023] Open
Abstract
Although control measures to tackle bovine tuberculosis (bTB) in cattle have been successful in many parts of Europe, this disease has not been eradicated in areas where Mycobacterium bovis circulates in multi-host systems. Here we analyzed the resurgence of 11 M. bovis genotypes (defined based on spoligotyping and MIRU-VNTR) detected in 141 farms between 2007 and 2019, in an area of Southwestern France where wildlife infection was also detected from 2012 in 65 badgers. We used a spatially-explicit model to reconstruct the simultaneous diffusion of the 11 genotypes in cattle farms and badger populations. Effective reproduction number R was estimated to be 1.34 in 2007-2011 indicating a self-sustained M. bovis transmission by a maintenance community although within-species Rs were both < 1, indicating that neither cattle nor badger populations acted as separate reservoir hosts. From 2012, control measures were implemented, and we observed a decrease of R below 1. Spatial contrasts of the basic reproduction ratio suggested that local field conditions may favor (or penalize) local spread of bTB upon introduction into a new farm. Calculation of generation time distributions showed that the spread of M. bovis has been more rapid from cattle farms (0.5-0.7 year) than from badger groups (1.3-2.4 years). Although eradication of bTB appears possible in the study area (since R < 1), the model suggests it is a long-term prospect, because of the prolonged persistence of infection in badger groups (2.9-5.7 years). Supplementary tools and efforts to better control bTB infection in badgers (including vaccination for instance) appear necessary.
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Affiliation(s)
- Malika Bouchez-Zacria
- Laboratory for Animal Health, French Agency for Food, Environmental and Occupational Health and Safety (ANSES), University Paris-Est, 14 Rue Pierre Et Marie Curie, 94700, Maisons-Alfort, France
- Independent Researcher, Audincthun, France
| | - Sandrine Ruette
- French Office for Biodiversity (OFB), Research and Scientific Support Direction, Vincennes, France
| | - Céline Richomme
- Nancy Laboratory for Rabies and Wildlife, French Agency for Food, Environmental and Occupational Health and Safety (ANSES), Malzéville, France
| | - Sandrine Lesellier
- Nancy Laboratory for Rabies and Wildlife, French Agency for Food, Environmental and Occupational Health and Safety (ANSES), Malzéville, France
| | - Ariane Payne
- French Office for Biodiversity (OFB), Research and Scientific Support Direction, Vincennes, France
| | - Maria-Laura Boschiroli
- Laboratory for Animal Health, French Agency for Food, Environmental and Occupational Health and Safety (ANSES), University Paris-Est, 14 Rue Pierre Et Marie Curie, 94700, Maisons-Alfort, France
- Tuberculosis Reference Laboratory, Bacterial Zoonosis Unit, Laboratory for Animal Health, Paris-Est University, ANSES, 94700, Maisons‑Alfort, France
| | - Aurélie Courcoul
- Laboratory for Animal Health, French Agency for Food, Environmental and Occupational Health and Safety (ANSES), University Paris-Est, 14 Rue Pierre Et Marie Curie, 94700, Maisons-Alfort, France
- Oniris, Nantes, France
| | - Benoit Durand
- Laboratory for Animal Health, French Agency for Food, Environmental and Occupational Health and Safety (ANSES), University Paris-Est, 14 Rue Pierre Et Marie Curie, 94700, Maisons-Alfort, France.
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Marsot M, Bernard C, Payne A, Rossi S, Ruette S, Desvaux S, Richomme C, Bouchez-Zacria M, Durand B. "BACACIX", a spatial index combining proxies of bovine and badger space use associated with extended Mycobacterium bovis circulation in France. Prev Vet Med 2023; 211:105817. [PMID: 36543069 DOI: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2022.105817] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/22/2022] [Revised: 10/17/2022] [Accepted: 12/11/2022] [Indexed: 12/15/2022]
Abstract
To better prevent and control multi-host pathogen circulation over large areas, it is essential to identify patterns of disease persistence within host communities involved in pathogen circulation at a macroscale. The aim of this study was to design and calculate "BACACIX", a spatial index of indirect contacts between cattle and badgers, two species involved in the circulation of Mycobacterium bovis, one of the main causative agents of bovine tuberculosis (bTB), in some areas of France. The index combined spatial models of land use distribution (the probable distribution defining animal use of space) based on pasture location for cattle, and based on land cover for badgers, with proxies for animal density for both species. For badgers, we used two series of census data of badger setts in two regions of France to evaluate our model of badger space use distribution (also known as utilization distribution), and analyzed the relationship between BACACIX and the upsurge of bovine tuberculosis observed in several regions of France during the decade after the country obtained the officially bTB-free status in 2001. We observed high values of BACACIX from the southwest to the northeast of France and from Brittany to the Channel coast. Conversely, in two areas (north-central area and Mediterranean coast), index values were low, suggesting that indirect cattle-badger contacts were unlikely. In the two series of census data of badger setts that we analyzed, 96.5% and 87% of the global positioning system (GPS) locations of badger setts, respectively were located in the calculated badger space use distribution. A logistic regression model showed that after controlling bTB over the previous decade, the value of the index was positively associated with the risk of cattle outbreaks between 2001 and 2010 (OR = 1.57). In addition, the risk of bTB occurrence in cattle decreased when the pasture area outside the badger space use distribution increased. In the future, the spatial index of indirect cattle-badger contacts we propose could help to better target bTB surveillance and control in France.
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Affiliation(s)
- Maud Marsot
- French Agency for Food, Environmental and Occupational Health and Safety (ANSES), Laboratory for Animal Health, Epidemiology Unit, University Paris-Est, Maisons-Alfort, France.
| | - Célia Bernard
- French Agency for Food, Environmental and Occupational Health and Safety (ANSES), Laboratory for Animal Health, Epidemiology Unit, University Paris-Est, Maisons-Alfort, France
| | - Ariane Payne
- French Office for Biodiversity, Research and Scientific Support Division, Vincennes, France
| | - Sophie Rossi
- French Office for Biodiversity, Research and Scientific Support Division, Vincennes, France
| | - Sandrine Ruette
- French Office for Biodiversity, Research and Scientific Support Division, Vincennes, France
| | - Stéphanie Desvaux
- French Office for Biodiversity, Research and Scientific Support Division, Vincennes, France
| | - Céline Richomme
- Nancy Laboratory for Rabies and Wildlife, French Agency for Food, Environmental and Occupational Health and Safety (ANSES), Malzéville, France
| | - Malika Bouchez-Zacria
- French Agency for Food, Environmental and Occupational Health and Safety (ANSES), Laboratory for Animal Health, Epidemiology Unit, University Paris-Est, Maisons-Alfort, France; Independent researcher, Audincthun, France
| | - Benoit Durand
- French Agency for Food, Environmental and Occupational Health and Safety (ANSES), Laboratory for Animal Health, Epidemiology Unit, University Paris-Est, Maisons-Alfort, France
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Madden JM, McGrath G, Sweeney J, Murray G, Tratalos JA, More SJ. Spatio-temporal models of bovine tuberculosis in the Irish cattle population, 2012-2019. Spat Spatiotemporal Epidemiol 2021; 39:100441. [PMID: 34774256 DOI: 10.1016/j.sste.2021.100441] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/15/2021] [Revised: 07/08/2021] [Accepted: 07/19/2021] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is an important zoonotic disease which has serious and sometimes fatal effects on both human and non-human animals. In many countries it is endemic in the cattle population and has a considerable economic impact through losses in productivity and impacts on trade. The incidence rate in Ireland varies by herd and location and it is hoped that statistical disease-mapping models accounting for both spatio-temporal correlation and covariates might contribute towards explaining this variation. METHODS Ireland was divided into equally sized hexagons for computational efficiency (n = 997). Different spatio-temporal random-effects models (e.g. negative binomial Besag-York-Mollié) were explored, using comprehensive data from the national bTB eradication programme to examine the association between covariates and the number of bTB cattle. Leveraging a Bayesian framework, model parameter estimates were obtained using the integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) approach. Exceedance probabilities were calculated to identify spatial clusters of cases. RESULTS Models accounting for spatial correlation significantly improved model fit in comparison to non-spatial versions where independence between regions was assumed. In our final model at hexagon level, the number of cattle (IR = 1.142, CrI: 1.108 - 1.177 per 1000), the capture of badgers (IR = 5.951, CrI: 4.482 - 7.912), percentage of forest cover (IR = 1.031, CrI: 1.020 - 1.042) and number of farm fragments (IR = 1.012, CrI: 1.009 - 1.015 per 10 fragments) were all associated with an increased incidence of bTB. Habitat suitability for badgers, percentage of dairy herds and the number of cattle movements into the herd were not. As an epidemiological tool and to suggest future work, an interactive online dashboard was developed to monitor disease progression and disseminate results to the general public. CONCLUSION Accounting for spatial correlation is an important consideration in disease mapping applications and is often ignored in statistical models examining bTB risk factors. Over time, the same regions in Ireland generally show highest incidences of bTB and allocation of more resources to these areas may be needed to combat the disease. This study highlights national bTB incidence rates. Shifting from national level analysis to smaller geographical regions may help identify localised high-risk areas.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jamie M Madden
- Centre for Veterinary Epidemiology and Risk Analysis (CVERA), School of Veterinary Medicine, University College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland
| | - Guy McGrath
- Centre for Veterinary Epidemiology and Risk Analysis (CVERA), School of Veterinary Medicine, University College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland
| | - James Sweeney
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Limerick, Limerick, Ireland
| | - Gerard Murray
- Department of Agriculture, Food and Marine, Drumshanbo Regional Veterinary Office, Derryhallagh, Drumshanbo, Co. Leitirm, Ireland
| | - Jamie A Tratalos
- Centre for Veterinary Epidemiology and Risk Analysis (CVERA), School of Veterinary Medicine, University College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland
| | - Simon J More
- Centre for Veterinary Epidemiology and Risk Analysis (CVERA), School of Veterinary Medicine, University College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland
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Gwitira I, Karumazondo N, Shekede MD, Sandy C, Siziba N, Chirenda J. Spatial patterns of pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) cases in Zimbabwe from 2015 to 2018. PLoS One 2021; 16:e0249523. [PMID: 33831058 PMCID: PMC8031317 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0249523] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/16/2020] [Accepted: 03/21/2021] [Indexed: 12/19/2022] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Accurate mapping of spatial heterogeneity in tuberculosis (TB) cases is critical for achieving high impact control as well as guide resource allocation in most developing countries. The main aim of this study was to explore the spatial patterns of TB occurrence at district level in Zimbabwe from 2015 to 2018 using GIS and spatial statistics as a preamble to identifying areas with elevated risk for prioritisation of control and intervention measures. METHODS In this study Getis-Ord Gi* statistics together with SaTscan were used to characterise TB hotspots and clusters in Zimbabwe at district level from 2015 to 2018. GIS software was used to map and visualise the results of cluster analysis. RESULTS Results show that TB occurrence exhibits spatial heterogeneity across the country. The TB hotspots were detected in the central, western and southern part of the country. These areas are characterised by artisanal mining activities as well as high poverty levels. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS Results of this study are useful to guide TB control programs and design effective strategies which are important in achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development goals (UNSDGs).
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Affiliation(s)
- Isaiah Gwitira
- Department of Geography Geospatial Sciences and Earth Observation, Faculty of Science, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
| | - Norbert Karumazondo
- Department of Geography Geospatial Sciences and Earth Observation, Faculty of Science, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
| | - Munyaradzi Davis Shekede
- Department of Geography Geospatial Sciences and Earth Observation, Faculty of Science, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
| | - Charles Sandy
- National TB Control Program, Ministry of Health and Child Care, Harare, Zimbabwe
| | - Nicolas Siziba
- National TB Control Program, Ministry of Health and Child Care, Harare, Zimbabwe
| | - Joconiah Chirenda
- Department of Community Medicine, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Parirenyatwa Hospital, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
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Canini L, Durand B. Resilience of French cattle farms to bovine tuberculosis detection between 2004 and 2017. Prev Vet Med 2020; 176:104902. [PMID: 32004827 DOI: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2020.104902] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/06/2019] [Revised: 01/17/2020] [Accepted: 01/20/2020] [Indexed: 10/25/2022]
Abstract
France was recognized officially bovine tuberculosis (bTB) free by the European Union in 2001, however an increase of bTB detections has been reported since 2004. Even though the recommended method for bTB control is whole herd depopulation, test-and-cull protocols have been authorized in pilot areas since 2008 and in the rest of France since 2014. BTB impact at the state level and on trade has been thoroughly studied, however the consequences of these control measures at a farm level are poorly understood. We used bovine movement data from the French cattle tracing system and surveillance data from the National reference laboratory to compare time to closure between case farms with a bTB detection and matched control farms between 2004 and 2017 in France. For this purpose, we considered two modes of closure: (i) long-lasting (more than 12 months) depopulation and (ii) change of farm owner. Using a competing risk analysis, we showed that bTB detection significantly increased the odds of long-lasting depopulation (particularly during the first three months after bTB detection) indicating that farmers renounced restocking after the depopulation, whereas it decreased the odds of a change of owner. Larger farms, characterized by an increased average weekly number of cattle, had a lesser risk of long-lasting depopulation. Farms owned by a natural person had an increased risk of closure. We also showed that the possibility to control bTB by test-and-cull protocol decreased the long-lasting depopulation risk. Overall, bTB control measures contribute to reshaping the agricultural landscape by increasing the probability of closure for small vulnerable farms and by favoring large, professionalized and specialized agricultural holdings. Our results also suggest an improvement in control management with the introduction of test-and-cull protocols instead of systematic whole herd depopulation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Laetitia Canini
- Epidemiology Unit, Paris-Est University, Laboratory for Animal Health, French Agency for Food, Environment and Occupational Health and Safety (ANSES), Maisons-Alfort, France
| | - Benoit Durand
- Epidemiology Unit, Paris-Est University, Laboratory for Animal Health, French Agency for Food, Environment and Occupational Health and Safety (ANSES), Maisons-Alfort, France.
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Srinivasan S, Easterling L, Rimal B, Niu XM, Conlan AJK, Dudas P, Kapur V. Prevalence of Bovine Tuberculosis in India: A systematic review and meta-analysis. Transbound Emerg Dis 2018; 65:1627-1640. [PMID: 29885021 PMCID: PMC6282864 DOI: 10.1111/tbed.12915] [Citation(s) in RCA: 38] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/02/2018] [Revised: 04/17/2018] [Accepted: 05/01/2018] [Indexed: 12/11/2022]
Abstract
Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is a chronic disease of cattle that impacts productivity and represents a major public health threat. Despite the considerable economic costs and zoonotic risk consequences associated with the disease, accurate estimates of bTB prevalence are lacking in many countries, including India, where national control programmes are not yet implemented and the disease is considered endemic. To address this critical knowledge gap, we performed a systematic review of the literature and a meta-analysis to estimate bTB prevalence in cattle in India and provide a foundation for the future formulation of rational disease control strategies and the accurate assessment of economic and health impact risks. The literature search was performed in accordance with PRISMA guidelines and identified 285 cross-sectional studies on bTB in cattle in India across four electronic databases and handpicked publications. Of these, 44 articles were included, contributing a total of 82,419 cows and buffaloes across 18 states and one union territory in India. Based on a random-effects (RE) meta-regression model, the analysis revealed a pooled prevalence estimate of 7.3% (95% CI: 5.6, 9.5), indicating that there may be an estimated 21.8 million (95% CI: 16.6, 28.4) infected cattle in India-a population greater than the total number of dairy cows in the United States. The analyses further suggest that production system, species, breed, study location, diagnostic technique, sample size and study period are likely moderators of bTB prevalence in India and need to be considered when developing future disease surveillance and control programmes. Taken together with the projected increase in intensification of dairy production and the subsequent increase in the likelihood of zoonotic transmission, the results of our study suggest that attempts to eliminate tuberculosis from humans will require simultaneous consideration of bTB control in cattle population in countries such as India.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sreenidhi Srinivasan
- Department of Animal ScienceThe Pennsylvania State UniversityUniversity ParkPennsylvaniaUSA
- The Huck Institutes of the Life SciencesThe Pennsylvania State UniversityUniversity ParkPennsylvaniaUSA
| | - Laurel Easterling
- Department of Animal ScienceThe Pennsylvania State UniversityUniversity ParkPennsylvaniaUSA
- The Huck Institutes of the Life SciencesThe Pennsylvania State UniversityUniversity ParkPennsylvaniaUSA
| | - Bipin Rimal
- The Huck Institutes of the Life SciencesThe Pennsylvania State UniversityUniversity ParkPennsylvaniaUSA
| | - Xiaoyue Maggie Niu
- Department of StatisticsEberly College of ScienceThe Pennsylvania State UniversityUniversity ParkPennsylvaniaUSA
| | - Andrew J. K. Conlan
- Disease Dynamics UnitDepartment of Veterinary MedicineUniversity of CambridgeCambridgeUK
| | - Patrick Dudas
- The Huck Institutes of the Life SciencesThe Pennsylvania State UniversityUniversity ParkPennsylvaniaUSA
| | - Vivek Kapur
- Department of Animal ScienceThe Pennsylvania State UniversityUniversity ParkPennsylvaniaUSA
- The Huck Institutes of the Life SciencesThe Pennsylvania State UniversityUniversity ParkPennsylvaniaUSA
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Draft Genome Sequences of Three Mycobacterium bovis Strains Identified in Cattle and Wildlife in France. GENOME ANNOUNCEMENTS 2017; 5:5/27/e00410-17. [PMID: 28684564 PMCID: PMC5502845 DOI: 10.1128/genomea.00410-17] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/20/2022]
Abstract
ABSTRACT
Mycobacterium bovis
is the etiologic agent of bovine tuberculosis, a chronic infectious disease affecting livestock, wild animals, and sometimes humans. We report here three draft genome sequences of
Mycobacterium bovis
strains of spoligotypes SB0821 and SB0134, isolated from wildlife but circulating in wildlife-livestock multihost systems, and SB0121, circulating exclusively in cattle.
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Picasso C, Alvarez J, VanderWaal KL, Fernandez F, Gil A, Wells SJ, Perez A. Epidemiological investigation of bovine tuberculosis outbreaks in Uruguay (2011-2013). Prev Vet Med 2017; 138:156-161. [PMID: 28237231 DOI: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2017.01.010] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/17/2016] [Revised: 11/28/2016] [Accepted: 01/16/2017] [Indexed: 11/18/2022]
Abstract
Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is a chronic disease of cattle caused by infection with the Mycobacterium bovis. While bTB prevalence in Uruguay has been low (<11 outbreaks/year) for the past 50 years as a consequence of a national control program, annual incidence increased in 2011 through 2013-15, 26 and 16 infected herds each year, raising concerns from livestock stakeholders and the government. The goal of this study was to assess the spatial dynamics of bTB in Uruguay from 2011 to 2013 and the association between bTB and potential demographic and movement risk factors at the herd level using data provided by the Uruguayan Ministry of Livestock, Agriculture, and Fisheries. Clustering of incident outbreaks was assessed using the Cuzick-Edwards' test and the Bernoulli model of the spatial scan statistic, and a conditional multivariable logistic regression model was used to assess risk factors associated with bTB in a subset of Uruguayan dairy farms. Significant (P<0.05) global clustering was detected in 2012, while high-risk local clusters were detected in southwestern (2011, 2012, 2013), northwestern (2012), and southeastern (2012) Uruguay. Increased risk of bTB in different regions of Uruguay suggests a potential role of animal movements in disease dissemination. Larger herds, higher numbers of animals purchased, and incoming steers to the farm were associated with increased odds of breaking with bTB, in agreement with previous studies but also suggesting other additional sources of risk. These results will contribute to enhanced effectiveness of bTB control programs in Uruguay with the ultimate objective of preventing or mitigating the impact of the disease in the human and animal populations of the country.
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Affiliation(s)
- Catalina Picasso
- Department of Veterinary Population Medicine, University of Minnesota, 1365 Gortner Avenue, St. Paul, MN, 55108, United States; Animal Health Bureau, Ministry of Livestock, Agriculture, and Fisheries, 1476 Constituyente, Montevideo, 11200, Uruguay.
| | - Julio Alvarez
- Department of Veterinary Population Medicine, University of Minnesota, 1365 Gortner Avenue, St. Paul, MN, 55108, United States.
| | - Kimberly L VanderWaal
- Department of Veterinary Population Medicine, University of Minnesota, 1365 Gortner Avenue, St. Paul, MN, 55108, United States.
| | - Federico Fernandez
- Animal Health Bureau, Ministry of Livestock, Agriculture, and Fisheries, 1476 Constituyente, Montevideo, 11200, Uruguay.
| | - Andres Gil
- Facultad de Veterinaria, Universidad de la Republica,1550 Alberto Lasplaces, Montevideo, 11100, Uruguay.
| | - Scott J Wells
- Department of Veterinary Population Medicine, University of Minnesota, 1365 Gortner Avenue, St. Paul, MN, 55108, United States.
| | - Andres Perez
- Department of Veterinary Population Medicine, University of Minnesota, 1365 Gortner Avenue, St. Paul, MN, 55108, United States.
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Draft Genome Sequence of Mycobacterium bovis Strain D-10-02315 Isolated from Wild Boar. GENOME ANNOUNCEMENTS 2016; 4:4/6/e01268-16. [PMID: 27834714 PMCID: PMC5105107 DOI: 10.1128/genomea.01268-16] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/20/2022]
Abstract
Mycobacterium bovis is the etiologic agent of bovine tuberculosis, a chronic infectious disease, affecting livestock, wild animals, and sometimes humans. We report the draft genome sequence of a Mycobacterium bovis strain isolated from wild boar of spoligotype SB0120 (or BCG-like) also present in wildlife-livestock multi-host systems.
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10
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Bekara MEA, Courcoul A, Bénet JJ, Durand B. Modeling tuberculosis dynamics, detection and control in cattle herds. PLoS One 2014; 9:e108584. [PMID: 25254369 PMCID: PMC4177924 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0108584] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/26/2014] [Accepted: 09/02/2014] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Epidemiological models are key tools for designing and evaluating detection and control strategies against animal infectious diseases. In France, after decades of decrease of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) incidence, the disease keeps circulating. Increasing prevalence levels are observed in several areas, where the detection and control strategy could be adapted. The objective of this work was to design and calibrate a model of the within-herd transmission of bTB. The proposed model is a stochastic model operating in discrete-time. Three health states were distinguished: susceptible, latent and infected. Dairy and beef herd dynamics and bTB detection and control programs were explicitly represented. Approximate Bayesian computation was used to estimate three model parameters from field data: the transmission parameter when animals are inside (βinside) and outside (βoutside) buildings, and the duration of the latent phase. An independent dataset was used for model validation. The estimated median was 0.43 [0.16–0.84] month−1 for βinside and 0.08 [0.01–0.32] month−1 for βoutside. The median duration of the latent period was estimated 3.5 [2]–[8] months. The sensitivity analysis showed only minor influences of fixed parameter values on these posterior estimates. Validation based on an independent dataset showed that in more than 80% of herds, the observed proportion of animals with detected lesions was between the 2.5% and 97.5% percentiles of the simulated distribution. In the absence of control program and once bTB has become enzootic within a herd, the median effective reproductive ratio was estimated to be 2.2 in beef herds and 1.7 in dairy herds. These low estimates are consistent with field observations of a low prevalence level in French bTB-infected herds.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mohammed El Amine Bekara
- University Paris Est, Anses, Laboratory of Animal Health, Epidemiology Unit, Maisons-Alfort, France
| | - Aurélie Courcoul
- University Paris Est, Anses, Laboratory of Animal Health, Epidemiology Unit, Maisons-Alfort, France
| | - Jean-Jacques Bénet
- University Paris Est, National Veterinary School of Alfort (ENVA), EpiMAI Unit, Maisons-Alfort, France
| | - Benoit Durand
- University Paris Est, Anses, Laboratory of Animal Health, Epidemiology Unit, Maisons-Alfort, France
- * E-mail:
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