1
|
Brown VR, Miller RS, McKee SC, Ernst KH, Didero NM, Maison RM, Grady MJ, Shwiff SA. Risks of introduction and economic consequences associated with African swine fever, classical swine fever and foot-and-mouth disease: A review of the literature. Transbound Emerg Dis 2020; 68:1910-1965. [PMID: 33176063 DOI: 10.1111/tbed.13919] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/30/2020] [Revised: 10/13/2020] [Accepted: 11/06/2020] [Indexed: 12/31/2022]
Abstract
African swine fever (ASF), classical swine fever (CSF) and foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) are considered to be three of the most detrimental animal diseases and are currently foreign to the U.S. Emerging and re-emerging pathogens can have tremendous impacts in terms of livestock morbidity and mortality events, production losses, forced trade restrictions, and costs associated with treatment and control. The United States is the world's top producer of beef for domestic and export use and the world's third-largest producer and consumer of pork and pork products; it has also recently been either the world's largest or second largest exporter of pork and pork products. Understanding the routes of introduction into the United States and the potential economic impact of each pathogen are crucial to (a) allocate resources to prevent routes of introduction that are believed to be more probable, (b) evaluate cost and efficacy of control methods and (c) ensure that protections are enacted to minimize impact to the most vulnerable industries. With two scoping literature reviews, pulled from global data, this study assesses the risk posed by each disease in the event of a viral introduction into the United States and illustrates what is known about the economic costs and losses associated with an outbreak.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Vienna R Brown
- National Feral Swine Damage Management Program, United States Department of Agriculture, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, Fort Collins, CO, USA
| | - Ryan S Miller
- Center for Epidemiology and Animal Health, United States Department of Agriculture, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, Veterinary Services, Fort Collins, CO, USA
| | - Sophie C McKee
- National Feral Swine Damage Management Program, United States Department of Agriculture, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, Fort Collins, CO, USA.,Department of Economics, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA
| | - Karina H Ernst
- National Feral Swine Damage Management Program, United States Department of Agriculture, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, Fort Collins, CO, USA.,Department of Economics, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA
| | - Nicole M Didero
- National Feral Swine Damage Management Program, United States Department of Agriculture, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, Fort Collins, CO, USA.,Department of Economics, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA
| | - Rachel M Maison
- Department of Biomedical Sciences, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA
| | - Meredith J Grady
- Human Dimensions of Natural Resources Department, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA
| | - Stephanie A Shwiff
- National Wildlife Research Center, United States Department of Agriculture, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, Fort Collins, CO, USA
| |
Collapse
|
2
|
Wada M, Lam CT, Rosanowski S, Patanasatienkul T, Price D, St-Hilaire S. Development of simulation models for transmission of Salmonid Rickettsial Septicaemia between salt water fish farms in Chile. Transbound Emerg Dis 2020; 68:1586-1600. [PMID: 32945136 DOI: 10.1111/tbed.13830] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/07/2020] [Revised: 09/04/2020] [Accepted: 09/06/2020] [Indexed: 11/27/2022]
Abstract
This study aimed at estimating parameters representing between-farm transmission of Salmonid Rickettsial Septicaemia (SRS) in Chile, and developing and validating simulation models to predict weekly spread of SRS between farms in Los Lagos (Region 10), using InterSpread Plus. The model parameters were estimated by analyses of the historical SRS outbreak data. The models incorporated time and distance-dependent transmission kernels, representing the probabilities of waterborne spread of SRS between farms. Seven candidate transmission kernels were estimated, with varying maximum distance of between-farm SRS spread (15-60 km). Farms were categorized by size (small; medium; large) and species (Coho salmon; Atlantic salmon; rainbow trout). The time that it took a farm to recover from infection was parameterized to be shortest for small Coho farms (median: 7 weeks), followed by medium and large Coho farms (median: 25 weeks), Atlantic salmon farms (median: 42 weeks, any size) and rainbow trout farms (median: 43 weeks, any size). The relative infectiousness parameters of rainbow trout farms were 1.5-6.3 times that of Coho or Atlantic salmon, or those of large farms was 1.3-4.2 times that of small or medium farms. The models predicted SRS prevalence in Region 10 between 2013 and 2015 (79 weeks) with 76.5%-93.0% overall accuracy. The model with a transmission kernel of <20 km (P20) achieved a maximum overall accuracy (93.0%). Within each neighbourhood, the accuracy of P20 varied between 32.4% and 88.1%; 13/20 neighbourhoods had a reasonable temporal agreement between the simulated and actual dynamics of SRS (within 5th-95th percentiles), but 5/20 neighbourhoods underestimated and 2/20 overestimated the SRS spread. The model could be used for evaluation of semi-global control policies in Region 10, while addition of other factors such as seasonality, ocean currents, and movement of infected fish may improve the model performance at a finer scale.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Masako Wada
- EpiCentre, School of Veterinary Science, Massey University, Palmerston North, New Zealand
| | - Chun Ting Lam
- Department of Infectious Disease and Public Health, Jockey Club College of Veterinary Medicine and Life Sciences, City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon, Hong Kong
| | - Sarah Rosanowski
- Department of Infectious Disease and Public Health, Jockey Club College of Veterinary Medicine and Life Sciences, City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon, Hong Kong
| | - Thitiwan Patanasatienkul
- Department of Health Management, Atlantic Veterinary College, University of Prince Edward Island, Charlottetown, PE, Canada
| | - Derek Price
- Department of Health Management, Atlantic Veterinary College, University of Prince Edward Island, Charlottetown, PE, Canada.,Aquaculture Environmental Operations, Aquaculture Management Division, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada
| | - Sophie St-Hilaire
- Department of Infectious Disease and Public Health, Jockey Club College of Veterinary Medicine and Life Sciences, City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon, Hong Kong
| |
Collapse
|
3
|
Merrill SC, Moegenburg S, Koliba CJ, Zia A, Trinity L, Clark E, Bucini G, Wiltshire S, Sellnow T, Sellnow D, Smith JM. Willingness to Comply With Biosecurity in Livestock Facilities: Evidence From Experimental Simulations. Front Vet Sci 2019; 6:156. [PMID: 31214603 PMCID: PMC6558082 DOI: 10.3389/fvets.2019.00156] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/04/2019] [Accepted: 05/07/2019] [Indexed: 12/15/2022] Open
Abstract
Disease in U.S. animal livestock industries annually costs over a billion dollars. Adoption and compliance with biosecurity practices is necessary to successfully reduce the risk of disease introduction or spread. Yet, a variety of human behaviors, such as the urge to minimize time costs, may induce non-compliance with biosecurity practices. Utilizing a “serious gaming” approach, we examine how information about infection risk impacts compliance with biosecurity practices. We sought to understand how simulated environments affected compliance behavior with treatments that varied using three factors: (1) the risk of acquiring an infection, (2) the delivery method of the infection risk message (numerical, linguistic and graphical), and (3) the certainty of the infection risk information. Here we show that compliance is influenced by message delivery methodology, with numeric, linguistic, and graphical messages showing increasing efficacy, respectively. Moreover, increased situational uncertainty and increased risk were correlated with increases in compliance behavior. These results provide insight toward developing messages that are more effective and provide tools that will allow managers of livestock facilities and policy makers to nudge behavior toward more disease resilient systems via greater compliance with biosecurity practices.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Scott C Merrill
- Department of Plant and Soil Science, University of Vermont, Burlington, VT, United States
| | - Susan Moegenburg
- Department of Plant and Soil Science, University of Vermont, Burlington, VT, United States
| | - Christopher J Koliba
- Department of Community Development and Applied Economics, University of Vermont, Burlington, VT, United States
| | - Asim Zia
- Department of Community Development and Applied Economics, University of Vermont, Burlington, VT, United States
| | - Luke Trinity
- Department of Mathematics & Statistics, University of Vermont, Burlington, VT, United States
| | - Eric Clark
- The Vermont Complex Systems Center, University of Vermont, Burlington, VT, United States
| | - Gabriela Bucini
- Department of Plant and Soil Science, University of Vermont, Burlington, VT, United States
| | - Serge Wiltshire
- Department of Food Systems, University of Vermont, Burlington, VT, United States
| | - Timothy Sellnow
- Nicholson School of Communication and Media, University of Central Florida, Orlando, FL, United States
| | - Deanna Sellnow
- Nicholson School of Communication and Media, University of Central Florida, Orlando, FL, United States
| | - Julia M Smith
- Department of Animal and Veterinary Sciences, University of Vermont, Burlington, VT, United States
| |
Collapse
|
4
|
Guo X, Claassen GDH, Oude Lansink AGJM, Loeffen W, Saatkamp HW. Economic Analysis of Classical Swine Fever Surveillance in the Netherlands. Transbound Emerg Dis 2014; 63:296-313. [DOI: 10.1111/tbed.12274] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/09/2014] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- X. Guo
- Business Economics Group; Department of Social Sciences; Wageningen University; Wageningen The Netherlands
| | - G. D. H. Claassen
- Operations Research and Logistics Group; Department of Social Sciences; Wageningen University; Wageningen The Netherlands
| | - A. G. J. M. Oude Lansink
- Business Economics Group; Department of Social Sciences; Wageningen University; Wageningen The Netherlands
| | - W. Loeffen
- Virology Department; Central Veterinary Institute of Wageningen UR (CVI); Lelystad The Netherlands
| | - H. W. Saatkamp
- Business Economics Group; Department of Social Sciences; Wageningen University; Wageningen The Netherlands
| |
Collapse
|