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Clifford Astbury C, Lee KM, Mcleod R, Aguiar R, Atique A, Balolong M, Clarke J, Demeshko A, Labonté R, Ruckert A, Sibal P, Togño KC, Viens AM, Wiktorowicz M, Yambayamba MK, Yau A, Penney TL. Policies to prevent zoonotic spillover: a systematic scoping review of evaluative evidence. Global Health 2023; 19:82. [PMID: 37940941 PMCID: PMC10634115 DOI: 10.1186/s12992-023-00986-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/05/2023] [Accepted: 11/01/2023] [Indexed: 11/10/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Emerging infectious diseases of zoonotic origin present a critical threat to global population health. As accelerating globalisation makes epidemics and pandemics more difficult to contain, there is a need for effective preventive interventions that reduce the risk of zoonotic spillover events. Public policies can play a key role in preventing spillover events. The aim of this review is to identify and describe evaluations of public policies that target the determinants of zoonotic spillover. Our approach is informed by a One Health perspective, acknowledging the inter-connectedness of human, animal and environmental health. METHODS In this systematic scoping review, we searched Medline, SCOPUS, Web of Science and Global Health in May 2021 using search terms combining animal health and the animal-human interface, public policy, prevention and zoonoses. We screened titles and abstracts, extracted data and reported our process in line with PRISMA-ScR guidelines. We also searched relevant organisations' websites for evaluations published in the grey literature. All evaluations of public policies aiming to prevent zoonotic spillover events were eligible for inclusion. We summarised key data from each study, mapping policies along the spillover pathway. RESULTS Our review found 95 publications evaluating 111 policies. We identified 27 unique policy options including habitat protection; trade regulations; border control and quarantine procedures; farm and market biosecurity measures; public information campaigns; and vaccination programmes, as well as multi-component programmes. These were implemented by many sectors, highlighting the cross-sectoral nature of zoonotic spillover prevention. Reports emphasised the importance of surveillance data in both guiding prevention efforts and enabling policy evaluation, as well as the importance of industry and private sector actors in implementing many of these policies. Thoughtful engagement with stakeholders ranging from subsistence hunters and farmers to industrial animal agriculture operations is key for policy success in this area. CONCLUSION This review outlines the state of the evaluative evidence around policies to prevent zoonotic spillover in order to guide policy decision-making and focus research efforts. Since we found that most of the existing policy evaluations target 'downstream' determinants, additional research could focus on evaluating policies targeting 'upstream' determinants of zoonotic spillover, such as land use change, and policies impacting infection intensity and pathogen shedding in animal populations, such as those targeting animal welfare.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chloe Clifford Astbury
- School of Global Health, York University, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Dahdaleh Institute for Global Health Research, York University, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Global Strategy Lab, York University, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Kirsten M Lee
- School of Global Health, York University, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Dahdaleh Institute for Global Health Research, York University, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Ryan Mcleod
- School of Global Health, York University, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Raphael Aguiar
- Dahdaleh Institute for Global Health Research, York University, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Asma Atique
- School of Global Health, York University, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Marilen Balolong
- Applied Microbiology for Health and Environment Research Group, College of Arts and Sciences, University of the Philippines Manila, Manila, Philippines
| | - Janielle Clarke
- School of Global Health, York University, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | | | - Ronald Labonté
- School of Epidemiology and Public Health, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada
| | - Arne Ruckert
- School of Epidemiology and Public Health, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada
| | - Priyanka Sibal
- School of Health Policy and Management, York University, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Kathleen Chelsea Togño
- Applied Microbiology for Health and Environment Research Group, College of Arts and Sciences, University of the Philippines Manila, Manila, Philippines
| | - A M Viens
- School of Global Health, York University, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Global Strategy Lab, York University, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Mary Wiktorowicz
- School of Global Health, York University, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Dahdaleh Institute for Global Health Research, York University, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Marc K Yambayamba
- School of Public Health, University of Kinshasa, Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo
| | - Amy Yau
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Tarra L Penney
- School of Global Health, York University, Toronto, ON, Canada.
- Dahdaleh Institute for Global Health Research, York University, Toronto, ON, Canada.
- Global Strategy Lab, York University, Toronto, ON, Canada.
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Abstract
In the last several decades, avian influenza virus has caused numerous outbreaks around the world. These outbreaks pose a significant threat to the poultry industry and also to public health. When an avian influenza (AI) outbreak occurs, it is critical to make informed decisions about the potential risks, impact, and control measures. To this end, many modeling approaches have been proposed to acquire knowledge from different sources of data and perspectives to enhance decision making. Although some of these approaches have shown to be effective, they do not follow the process of knowledge discovery in databases (KDD). KDD is an iterative process, consisting of five steps, that aims at extracting unknown and useful information from the data. The present review attempts to survey AI modeling methods in the context of KDD process. We first divide the modeling techniques used in AI into two main categories: data-intensive modeling and small-data modeling. We then investigate the existing gaps in the literature and suggest several potential directions and techniques for future studies. Overall, this review provides insights into the control of AI in terms of the risk of introduction and spread of the virus.
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Wiratsudakul A, Suparit P, Modchang C. Dynamics of Zika virus outbreaks: an overview of mathematical modeling approaches. PeerJ 2018; 6:e4526. [PMID: 29593941 PMCID: PMC5866925 DOI: 10.7717/peerj.4526] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/01/2017] [Accepted: 03/02/2018] [Indexed: 12/27/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The Zika virus was first discovered in 1947. It was neglected until a major outbreak occurred on Yap Island, Micronesia, in 2007. Teratogenic effects resulting in microcephaly in newborn infants is the greatest public health threat. In 2016, the Zika virus epidemic was declared as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC). Consequently, mathematical models were constructed to explicitly elucidate related transmission dynamics. SURVEY METHODOLOGY In this review article, two steps of journal article searching were performed. First, we attempted to identify mathematical models previously applied to the study of vector-borne diseases using the search terms "dynamics," "mathematical model," "modeling," and "vector-borne" together with the names of vector-borne diseases including chikungunya, dengue, malaria, West Nile, and Zika. Then the identified types of model were further investigated. Second, we narrowed down our survey to focus on only Zika virus research. The terms we searched for were "compartmental," "spatial," "metapopulation," "network," "individual-based," "agent-based" AND "Zika." All relevant studies were included regardless of the year of publication. We have collected research articles that were published before August 2017 based on our search criteria. In this publication survey, we explored the Google Scholar and PubMed databases. RESULTS We found five basic model architectures previously applied to vector-borne virus studies, particularly in Zika virus simulations. These include compartmental, spatial, metapopulation, network, and individual-based models. We found that Zika models carried out for early epidemics were mostly fit into compartmental structures and were less complicated compared to the more recent ones. Simple models are still commonly used for the timely assessment of epidemics. Nevertheless, due to the availability of large-scale real-world data and computational power, recently there has been growing interest in more complex modeling frameworks. DISCUSSION Mathematical models are employed to explore and predict how an infectious disease spreads in the real world, evaluate the disease importation risk, and assess the effectiveness of intervention strategies. As the trends in modeling of infectious diseases have been shifting towards data-driven approaches, simple and complex models should be exploited differently. Simple models can be produced in a timely fashion to provide an estimation of the possible impacts. In contrast, complex models integrating real-world data require more time to develop but are far more realistic. The preparation of complicated modeling frameworks prior to the outbreaks is recommended, including the case of future Zika epidemic preparation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Anuwat Wiratsudakul
- Department of Clinical Sciences and Public Health, Faculty of Veterinary Science, Mahidol University, Phutthamonthon, Nakhon Pathom, Thailand
- The Monitoring and Surveillance Center for Zoonotic Diseases in Wildlife and Exotic Animals, Faculty of Veterinary Science, Mahidol University, Phutthamonthon, Nakhon Pathom, Thailand
| | - Parinya Suparit
- Biophysics Group, Department of Physics, Faculty of Science, Mahidol University, Ratchathewi, Bangkok, Thailand
| | - Charin Modchang
- Biophysics Group, Department of Physics, Faculty of Science, Mahidol University, Ratchathewi, Bangkok, Thailand
- Centre of Excellence in Mathematics, CHE, Ratchathewi, Bangkok, Thailand
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