Evaluation of the Control Strategy for the 2010 Foot-and-Mouth Disease Outbreak in Japan Using Disease Simulation

Assessment of immunization procedures for foot-and-mouth disease in large-scale pig farms in China based on actual data and dynamics

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is an acute, highly infectious and pathogenic animal disease. In recent years, with the rapid development of the swine breeding industry in China, pig farms have shown a trend of larger-scale development. Large-scale pig farms employ standardized management, a high level of automation, and a strict system. However, these farms have a large trading volume, and increased transmission intensity of FMD is noted inside the farm. At present, the main control measure against FMD is pig vaccination. However, a standard for immunization procedures is not available, and currently adopted immunization procedures have not been effectively and systematically evaluated. Taking a typical large-scale pig farm in China as the research subject and considering the breeding pattern, piggery structure, age structure and immunization procedures, an individual-based state probability model is established to evaluate the effectiveness of the immune procedure. Based on numerical simulation, it is concluded that the optimal immunization program involves primary immunization at 40 days of age and secondary immunization at 80 days of age for commercial pigs. Breeding boars and breeding sows are immunized 4 times a year, and reserve pigs are immunized at 169 and 259 days of age. According to the theoretical analysis, the average control reproduction number of individuals under the optimal immunization procedure in the farm is 0.4927. In the absence of immunization, the average is 1.7498, indicating that the epidemic cannot be controlled without immunization procedures.

A model exploration of carrier and movement transmission as potential explanatory causes for the persistence of foot-and-mouth disease in endemic regions

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a virulent and economically important disease of livestock, still endemic in many areas of Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. Transmission from persistently infected livestock, also known as carriers, has been proposed as a mechanism to support the persistence of FMD in endemic regions. However, whether carrier livestock can infect susceptible animals is controversial; recovered virus is infectious and there are claims of field transmission, but it remains undemonstrated experimentally. Alternate hypotheses for persistence include the movement of livestock within and between regions, and fomite contamination of the environment. Using a stochastic compartmental ordinary differential equation (ODE) model, we investigate the minimum rates of carrier transmission necessary to contribute to the maintenance of FMD in a region, and compare this to the alternate mechanism of persistence through cattle shipments. We find that carrier transmission can theoretically support persistence even at transmission rates much lower than the highest realistic rates previously proposed, and that the parameters with the most effect on the feasibility of carrier-mediated persistence are the average duration of both the carrier phase and natural immunity. However, shipment-mediated persistence remains a viable alternate mechanism for persistence without carrier transmission.

The risk factor assessment of the spread of foot-and-mouth disease in mainland China

In China, foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) serotype O remains prevalent, and its main host is pigs. Infected but undiscovered pigs can carry foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) for a longtime. And, the virus can spread among farms through pig trade. Although individual vaccination at least 2 times a year and monthly monitoring disease and culling all individual in same group for pigs are adopted vigorously in China, the epidemic remains prevalent. Therefore, in this paper, based on these propagation characteristics and control measures of the epidemic in China, we take the pig farms as research individuals, the trade among farms as transmission routes to establish a dynamic model with nonlinear incidence. In addition, we use this model to assess the impact of trade and transport of pigs among farms on the spread of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV), and to assess the effect of the immunization, monitoring and culling adopted presently in China on the control of the epidemic. By the dynamical analysis of the model, it is found that there will appear backward branching under some conditions, which means that there are two spreading thresholds for the disease, and the disease development trend is also related to the current epidemic situation. Besides, we give the threshold conditions of key parameters to control the spread of FMD. By carrying out data fitting and parameter estimation, we confirm the model rationality, and give four evaluation indexes: the basic reproduction number R₀ of FMD serotype O in China, the value of the infected farms at the equilibria, annual probability of a susceptible farm being infected and annual transmission intensity of an infected farm. By carrying out the sensitivity analysis of key parameters on four evaluation indexes, the effect of parameters on the spread of the disease can be intuitively observed. All these can provide a theoretical basis for understanding of the trading-based transmission mechanism, control and prevention of foot-and-mouth disease in pigs in China.

Challenges to the Application of Spatially Explicit Stochastic Simulation Models for Foot-and-Mouth Disease Control in Endemic Settings: A Systematic Review

Simulation modeling has become common for estimating the spread of highly contagious animal diseases. Several models have been developed to mimic the spread of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in specific regions or countries, conduct risk assessment, analyze outbreaks using historical data or hypothetical scenarios, assist in policy decisions during epidemics, formulate preparedness plans, and evaluate economic impacts. Majority of the available FMD simulation models were designed for and applied in disease-free countries, while there has been limited use of such models in FMD endemic countries. This paper's objective was to report the findings from a study conducted to review the existing published original research literature on spatially explicit stochastic simulation (SESS) models of FMD spread, focusing on assessing these models for their potential use in endemic settings. The goal was to identify the specific components of endemic FMD needed to adapt these SESS models for their potential application in FMD endemic settings. This systematic review followed the PRISMA guidelines, and three databases were searched, which resulted in 1176 citations. Eighty citations finally met the inclusion criteria and were included in the qualitative synthesis, identifying nine unique SESS models. These SESS models were assessed for their potential application in endemic settings. The assessed SESS models can be adapted for use in FMD endemic countries by modifying the underlying code to include multiple cocirculating serotypes, routine prophylactic vaccination (RPV), and livestock population dynamics to more realistically mimic the endemic characteristics of FMD. The application of SESS models in endemic settings will help evaluate strategies for FMD control, which will improve livestock health, provide economic gains for producers, help alleviate poverty and hunger, and will complement efforts to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals.

Modelling infectious viral diseases in swine populations: a state of the art

Mathematical modelling is nowadays a pivotal tool for infectious diseases studies, completing regular biological investigations. The rapid growth of computer technology allowed for development of computational tools to address biological issues that could not be unravelled in the past. The global understanding of viral disease dynamics requires to account for all interactions at all levels, from within-host to between-herd, to have all the keys for development of control measures. A literature review was performed to disentangle modelling frameworks according to their major objectives and methodologies. One hundred and seventeen articles published between 1994 and 2020 were found to meet our inclusion criteria, which were defined to target papers representative of studies dealing with models of viral infection dynamics in pigs. A first descriptive analysis, using bibliometric indexes, permitted to identify keywords strongly related to the study scopes. Modelling studies were focused on particular infectious agents, with a shared objective: to better understand the viral dynamics for appropriate control measure adaptation. In a second step, selected papers were analysed to disentangle the modelling structures according to the objectives of the studies. The system representation was highly dependent on the nature of the pathogens. Enzootic viruses, such as swine influenza or porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome, were generally investigated at the herd scale to analyse the impact of husbandry practices and prophylactic measures on infection dynamics. Epizootic agents (classical swine fever, foot-and-mouth disease or African swine fever viruses) were mostly studied using spatio-temporal simulation tools, to investigate the efficiency of surveillance and control protocols, which are predetermined for regulated diseases. A huge effort was made on model parameterization through the development of specific studies and methodologies insuring the robustness of parameter values to feed simulation tools. Integrative modelling frameworks, from within-host to spatio-temporal models, is clearly on the way. This would allow to capture the complexity of individual biological variabilities and to assess their consequences on the whole system at the population level. This would offer the opportunity to test and evaluate in silico the efficiency of possible control measures targeting specific epidemiological units, from hosts to herds, either individually or through their contact networks. Such decision support tools represent a strength for stakeholders to help mitigating infectious diseases dynamics and limiting economic consequences.

Transmission network reconstruction for foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks incorporating farm-level covariates

Transmission network modelling to infer 'who infected whom' in infectious disease outbreaks is a highly active area of research. Outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease have been a key focus of transmission network models that integrate genomic and epidemiological data. The aim of this study was to extend Lau's systematic Bayesian inference framework to incorporate additional parameters representing predominant species and numbers of animals held on a farm. Lau's Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm was reformulated, verified and pseudo-validated on 100 simulated outbreaks populated with demographic data Japan and Australia. The modified model was then implemented on genomic and epidemiological data from the 2010 outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease in Japan, and outputs compared to those from the SCOTTI model implemented in BEAST2. The modified model achieved improvements in overall accuracy when tested on the simulated outbreaks. When implemented on the actual outbreak data from Japan, infected farms that held predominantly pigs were estimated to have five times the transmissibility of infected cattle farms and be 49% less susceptible. The farm-level incubation period was 1 day shorter than the latent period, the timing of the seeding of the outbreak in Japan was inferred, as were key linkages between clusters and features of farms involved in widespread dissemination of this outbreak. To improve accessibility the modified model has been implemented as the R package 'BORIS' for use in future outbreaks.

Improved foot-and-mouth disease vaccine, O TWN-R, protects pigs against SEA topotype virus occurred in South Korea

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious disease and causes economic damage at a national level. In particular, the type O FMD virus (FMDV) is a serotype that causes FMD outbreaks most frequently in the world. In recent years, Southeast Asia (SEA), Middle East-South Asia (ME-SA), and Cathay topotype-mediated FMD are prevalent in Asia, among which the SEA and ME-SA topotypes cause a majority of the outbreaks. The SEA topotype virus is more likely to infect both cattle and pigs simultaneously, thereby resulting in more severe damages; thus, it is necessary to study the protection ability of the candidate vaccines of this topotype after immunization. In this study, an experimental vaccine for pigs was produced using a vaccine strain that contains the structural protein of the O Taiwan97 strain, which was derived from the Cathay topotype, and its effect was evaluated. In the immunization test in pigs and cattle, the antibody titers were found to be elevated two weeks after immunization and very high titers of neutralizing antibodies were formed after four weeks. After the second inoculation, very high titers of neutralizing antibodies were produced in both species in the fourth week after immunization, and the antibodies maintained for up to six months and three months in cattle and pigs, respectively. No significant immunological difference in antibody production was observed in cattle and pigs. This study confirmed that complete protection from the challenge of the SEA topotype virus (O/Jincheon/SKR/2014), although the antibody titers against O/Jincheon/SKR/2014 strain were not that high, was achieved through immunization with the newly developed Cathay topotype vaccine in pigs.

Control of type O foot-and-mouth disease by vaccination in Korea, 2014-2015

On December 3, 2014, a type O foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreak began in Korea. Although vaccinations were administered, FMD cases increased steadily for five months, and reached 185 cases by April 2015. Most of the affected animals were pigs, which are vulnerable to vaccination. The FMD virus belonged to the South-East Asia (SEA) topotype that had been observed three times in Korea between April 2010 and July 2014. However, the FMD virus isolated in December 2014 had a unique feature; that is, partial deletion of the 5´ non-coding region, a deletion not seen in previous SEA topotype isolates identified in Korea. We conclude that this outbreak included the introduction of a new FMD strain to Korea, and that Korea was now affected by genetically similar FMD virus strains that are related to those from neighboring countries.

Early Decision Indicators for Foot-and-Mouth Disease Outbreaks in Non-Endemic Countries

Disease managers face many challenges when deciding on the most effective control strategy to manage an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD). Decisions have to be made under conditions of uncertainty and where the situation is continually evolving. In addition, resources for control are often limited. A modeling study was carried out to identify characteristics measurable during the early phase of a FMD outbreak that might be useful as predictors of the total number of infected places, outbreak duration, and the total area under control (AUC). The study involved two modeling platforms in two countries (Australia and New Zealand) and encompassed a large number of incursion scenarios. Linear regression, classification and regression tree, and boosted regression tree analyses were used to quantify the predictive value of a set of parameters on three outcome variables of interest: the total number of infected places, outbreak duration, and the total AUC. The number of infected premises (IPs), number of pending culls, AUC, estimated dissemination ratio, and cattle density around the index herd at days 7, 14, and 21 following first detection were associated with each of the outcome variables. Regression models for the size of the AUC had the highest predictive value (R² = 0.51-0.9) followed by the number of IPs (R² = 0.3-0.75) and outbreak duration (R² = 0.28-0.57). Predictability improved at later time points in the outbreak. Predictive regression models using various cut-points at day 14 to define small and large outbreaks had positive predictive values of 0.85-0.98 and negative predictive values of 0.52-0.91, with 79-97% of outbreaks correctly classified. On the strict assumption that each of the simulation models used in this study provide a realistic indication of the spread of FMD in animal populations. Our conclusion is that relatively simple metrics available early in a control program can be used to indicate the likely magnitude of an FMD outbreak under Australian and New Zealand conditions.