A field investigation of an African horse sickness outbreak in the controlled area of South Africa in 2016

Outlook on RNAi-Based Strategies for Controlling Culicoides Biting Midges

Culicoides are small biting midges with the capacity to transmit important livestock pathogens around much of the world, and their impacts on animal welfare are likely to expand. Hemorrhagic diseases resulting from Culicoides-vectored viruses, for example, can lead to millions of dollars in economic damages for producers. Chemical insecticides can reduce Culicoides abundance but may not suppress population numbers enough to prevent pathogen transmission. These insecticides can also cause negative effects on non-target organisms and ecosystems. RNA interference (RNAi) is a cellular regulatory mechanism that degrades mRNA and suppresses gene expression. Studies have examined the utility of this mechanism for insect pest control, and with it, have described the hurdles towards producing, optimizing, and applying these RNAi-based products. These methods hold promise for being highly specific and environmentally benign when compared to chemical insecticides and are more transient than engineering transgenic insects. Given the lack of available control options for Culicoides, RNAi-based products could be an option to treat large areas with minimal environmental impact. In this study, we describe the state of current Culicoides control methods, successes and hurdles towards using RNAi for pest control, and the necessary research required to bring an RNAi-based control method to fruition for Culicoides midges.

Modelling African horse sickness emergence and transmission in the South African control area using a deterministic metapopulation approach

African horse sickness is an equine orbivirus transmitted by Culicoides Latreille biting midges. In the last 80 years, it has caused several devastating outbreaks in the equine population in Europe, the Far and Middle East, North Africa, South-East Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa. The disease is endemic in South Africa; however, a unique control area has been set up in the Western Cape where increased surveillance and control measures have been put in place. A deterministic metapopulation model was developed to explore if an outbreak might occur, and how it might develop, if a latently infected horse was to be imported into the control area, by varying the geographical location and months of import. To do this, a previously published ordinary differential equation model was developed with a metapopulation approach and included a vaccinated horse population. Outbreak length, time to peak infection, number of infected horses at the peak, number of horses overall affected (recovered or dead), re-emergence, and Rv (the basic reproduction number in the presence of vaccination) were recorded and displayed using GIS mapping. The model predictions were compared to previous outbreak data to ensure validity. The warmer months (November to March) had longer outbreaks than the colder months (May to September), took more time to reach the peak, and had a greater total outbreak size with more horses infected at the peak. Rv appeared to be a poor predictor of outbreak dynamics for this simulation. A sensitivity analysis indicated that control measures such as vaccination and vector control are potentially effective to manage the spread of an outbreak, and shortening the vaccination window to July to September may reduce the risk of vaccine-associated outbreaks.

An Investigation of Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) as Potential Vectors of Medically and Veterinary Important Arboviruses in South Africa

Culicoides-borne viruses such as bluetongue, African horse sickness, and Schmallenberg virus cause major economic burdens due to animal outbreaks in Africa and their emergence in Europe and Asia. However, little is known about the role of Culicoides as vectors for zoonotic arboviruses. In this study, we identify both veterinary and zoonotic arboviruses in pools of Culicoides biting midges in South Africa, during 2012–2017. Midges were collected at six surveillance sites in three provinces and screened for Alphavirs, Flavivirus, Orthobunyavirus, and Phlebovirus genera; equine encephalosis virus (EEV); and Rhaboviridae, by reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction. In total, 66/331 (minimum infection rate (MIR) = 0.4) pools tested positive for one or more arbovirus. Orthobunyaviruses, including Shuni virus (MIR = 0.1) and EEV (MIR = 0.2) were more readily detected, while only 2/66 (MIR = 0.1) Middelburg virus and 4/66 unknown Rhabdoviridae viruses (MIR = 0.0) were detected. This study suggests Culicoides as potential vectors of both veterinary and zoonotic arboviruses detected in disease outbreaks in Africa, which may contribute to the emergence of these viruses to new regions.

An entry risk assessment of African horse sickness virus into the controlled area of South Africa through the legal movement of equids

South Africa is endemic for African horse sickness (AHS), an important health and trade-sensitive disease of equids. The country is zoned with movement control measures facilitating an AHS-free controlled area in the south-west. Our objective was to quantitatively establish the risk of entry of AHS virus into the AHS controlled area through the legal movement of horses. Outcomes were subcategorised to evaluate movement pathway, temporal, and spatial differences in risk. A 'no-control' scenario allowed for evaluation of the impact of control measures. Using 2019 movement and AHS case data, and country-wide census data, a stochastic model was developed establishing local municipality level entry risk of AHSV at monthly intervals. These were aggregated to annual probability of entry. Sensitivity analysis evaluated model variables on their impact on the conditional means of the probability of entry. The median monthly probability of entry of AHSV into the controlled area of South Africa ranged from 0.75% (June) to 5.73% (February), with the annual median probability of entry estimated at 20.21% (95% CI: 15.89%-28.89%). The annual risk of AHSV entry compared well with the annual probability of introduction of AHS into the controlled area, which is ~10% based on the last 20 years of outbreak data. Direct non-quarantine movements made up most movements and accounted for most of the risk of entry. Spatial analysis showed that, even though reported case totals were zero throughout 2019 in the Western Cape, horses originating from this province still pose a risk that should not be ignored. Control measures decrease risk by a factor of 2.8 on an annual basis. Not only do the outcomes of this study inform domestic control, they can also be used for scientifically justified trade decision making, since in-country movement control forms a key component of export protocols.

Post-outbreak African horse sickness surveillance: A scenario tree evaluation in South Africa's controlled area

An African horse sickness (AHS) outbreak occurred in March and April 2016 in the controlled area of South Africa. This extended an existing trade suspension of live equids from South Africa to the European Union. In the post-outbreak period ongoing passive and active surveillance, the latter in the form of monthly sentinel surveillance and a stand-alone freedom from disease survey in March 2017, took place. We describe a stochastic scenario tree analysis of these surveillance components for 24 months, starting July 2016, in three distinct geographic areas of the controlled area. Given that AHS was not detected, the probability of being free from AHS was between 98.3% and 99.8% assuming that, if it were present, it would have a prevalence of at least one infected animal in 1% of herds. This high level of freedom probability had been attained in all three areas within the first 9 months of the 2-year period. The primary driver of surveillance outcomes was the passive surveillance component. Active surveillance components contributed minimally (<0.2%) to the final probability of freedom. Sensitivity analysis showed that the probability of infected horses showing clinical signs was an important parameter influencing the system surveillance sensitivity. The monthly probability of disease introduction needed to be increased to 20% and greater to decrease the overall probability of freedom to below 90%. Current global standards require a 2-year post-incursion period of AHS freedom before re-evaluation of free zone status. Our findings show that the length of this period could be decreased if adequately sensitive surveillance is performed. In order to comply with international standards, active surveillance will remain a component of AHS surveillance in South Africa. Passive surveillance, however, can provide substantial evidence supporting AHS freedom status declarations, and further investment in this surveillance activity would be beneficial.

Plant-produced chimeric virus-like particles - a new generation vaccine against African horse sickness

BACKGROUND

African horse sickness (AHS) is a severe arthropod-borne viral disease of equids, with a mortality rate of up to 95% in susceptible naïve horses. Due to safety concerns with the current live, attenuated AHS vaccine, alternate safe and effective vaccination strategies such as virus-like particles (VLPs) are being investigated. Transient plant-based expression systems are a rapid and highly scalable means of producing such African horse sickness virus (AHSV) VLPs for vaccine purposes.

RESULTS

In this study, we demonstrated that transient co-expression of the four AHSV capsid proteins in agroinfiltrated Nicotiana benthamiana dXT/FT plants not only allowed for the assembly of homogenous AHSV-1 VLPs but also single, double and triple chimeric VLPs, where one capsid protein originated from one AHS serotype and at least one other capsid protein originated from another AHS serotype. Following optimisation of a large scale VLP purification procedure, the safety and immunogenicity of the plant-produced, triple chimeric AHSV-6 VLPs was confirmed in horses, the target species.

CONCLUSIONS

We have successfully shown assembly of single and double chimeric AHSV-7 VLPs, as well as triple chimeric AHSV-6 VLPs, in Nicotiana benthamiana dXT/FT plants. Plant produced chimeric AHSV-6 VLPs were found to be safe for administration into 6 month old foals as well as capable of eliciting a weak neutralizing humoral immune response in these target animals against homologous AHSV virus.

Establishing post-outbreak freedom from African horse sickness virus in South Africa's surveillance zone

An African horse sickness (AHS) outbreak occurred in South Africa's AHS controlled area in autumn 2016. A freedom from disease survey was performed to establish the likelihood of ongoing circulation of the associated virus during the same period the following year. A single-stage surveillance strategy was employed with a population-level design prevalence of 1% to establish a survey population sensitivity of 95% (probability that one or more positive horses would be detected if AHS was present at a prevalence greater than or equal to the design prevalence). In March 2017, a total of 262 randomly selected horses from 51 herds were sampled from the 2016 outbreak containment zone. Three within-herd and herd-level design prevalence scenarios were used in evaluating the post-survey probability of freedom. Depending on the underlying design prevalence scenarios, effectively ranging between 0.8% and 6.4%, and the use of informed or uninformed priors, the probability of freedom derived from this surveillance ranged between 73.1% and 99.9% (uninformed prior) and between 96.6% and 100% (informed prior). Based on the results, the authors conclude that it is unlikely that the 2016 AHS virus was still circulating in the autumn of 2017 in the 2016 outbreak containment zone. The ability to perform freedom from disease surveys, and also to include risk-based methods, in the AHS controlled area of South Africa is influenced by the changing underlying population at risk and the high level of vaccination coverage in the horse population. Ongoing census post-outbreak must be undertaken to maintain a valid sampling frame for future surveillance activity. The seasonality of AHS, the restricted AHS vaccination period and the inability to easily differentiate infected from vaccinated animals by laboratory testing impact the ability to perform a freedom from disease survey for AHS in the 12 months following an outbreak in the controlled area.