How do genetic relatedness and spatial proximity shape African swine fever infections in wild boar?

African Swine Fever: Transmission, Spread, and Control through Biosecurity and Disinfection, Including Polish Trends

African swine fever is a contagious disease, affecting pigs and wild boars, which poses a major threat to the pig industry worldwide and, therefore, to the agricultural economies of many countries. Despite intensive studies, an effective vaccine against the disease has not yet been developed. Since 2007, ASFV has been circulating in Eastern and Central Europe, covering an increasingly large area. As of 2018, the disease is additionally spreading at an unprecedented scale in Southeast Asia, nearly ruining China's pig-producing sector and generating economic losses of approximately USD 111.2 billion in 2019. ASFV's high resistance to environmental conditions, together with the lack of an approved vaccine, plays a key role in the spread of the disease. Therefore, the biosecurity and disinfection of pig farms are the only effective tools through which to prevent ASFV from entering the farms. The selection of a disinfectant, with research-proven efficacy and proper use, taking into account environmental conditions, exposure time, pH range, and temperature, plays a crucial role in the disinfection process. Despite the significant importance of ASF epizootics, little information is available on the effectiveness of different disinfectants against ASFV. In this review, we have compiled the current knowledge on the transmission, spread, and control of ASF using the principles of biosecurity, with particular attention to disinfection, including a perspective based on Polish experience with ASF control.

Risk of African swine fever virus transmission among wild boar and domestic pigs in Poland

Introduction

African swine fever (ASF) is a notifiable disease of swine that impacts global pork trade and food security. In several countries across the globe, the disease persists in wild boar (WB) populations sympatric to domestic pig (DP) operations, with continued detections in both sectors. While there is evidence of spillover and spillback between the sectors, the frequency of occurrence and relative importance of different risk factors for transmission at the wildlife-livestock interface remain unclear.

Methods

To address this gap, we leveraged ASF surveillance data from WB and DP across Eastern Poland from 2014-2019 in an analysis that quantified the relative importance of different risk factors for explaining variation in each of the ASF surveillance data from WB and DP.

Results

ASF prevalence exhibited different seasonal trends across the sectors: apparent prevalence was much higher in summer (84% of detections) in DP, but more consistent throughout the year in WB (highest in winter with 45%, lowest in summer at 15%). Only 21.8% of DP-positive surveillance data included surveillance in WB nearby (within 5 km of the grid cell within the last 4 weeks), while 41.9% of WB-positive surveillance samples included any DP surveillance samples nearby. Thus, the surveillance design afforded twice as much opportunity to find DP-positive samples in the recent vicinity of WB-positive samples compared to the opposite, yet the rate of positive WB samples in the recent vicinity of a positive DP sample was 48 times as likely than the rate of positive DP samples in the recent vicinity of a positive WB sample. Our machine learning analyses found that positive samples in WB were predicted by WB-related risk factors, but not to DP-related risk factors. In contrast, WB risk factors were important for predicting detections in DP on a few spatial and temporal scales of data aggregation.

Discussion

Our results highlight that spillover from WB to DP might be more frequent than the reverse, but that the structure of current surveillance systems challenge quantification of spillover frequency and risk factors. Our results emphasize the importance of, and provide guidance for, improving cross-sector surveillance designs.

The heterogeneous herd: Drivers of close-contact variation in African buffalo and implications for pathogen invasion

Many infectious pathogens are shared through social interactions, and examining host connectivity has offered valuable insights for understanding patterns of pathogen transmission across wildlife species. African buffalo are social ungulates and important reservoirs of directly-transmitted pathogens that impact numerous wildlife and livestock species. Here, we analyzed African buffalo social networks to quantify variation in close contacts, examined drivers of contact heterogeneity, and investigated how the observed contact patterns affect pathogen invasion likelihoods for a wild social ungulate. We collected continuous association data using proximity collars and sampled host traits approximately every 2 months during a 15-month study period in Kruger National Park, South Africa. Although the observed herd was well connected, with most individuals contacting each other during each bimonthly interval, our analyses revealed striking heterogeneity in close-contact associations among herd members. Network analysis showed that individual connectivity was stable over time and that individual age, sex, reproductive status, and pairwise genetic relatedness were important predictors of buffalo connectivity. Calves were the most connected members of the herd, and adult males were the least connected. These findings highlight the role susceptible calves may play in the transmission of pathogens within the herd. We also demonstrate that, at time scales relevant to infectious pathogens found in nature, the observed level of connectivity affects pathogen invasion likelihoods for a wide range of infectious periods and transmissibilities. Ultimately, our study identifies key predictors of social connectivity in a social ungulate and illustrates how contact heterogeneity, even within a highly connected herd, can shape pathogen invasion likelihoods.

Optimizing response to an introduction of African swine fever in wild pigs

African swine fever virus (ASFv) is a virulent pathogen that threatens domestic swine industries globally and persists in wild boar populations in some countries. Persistence in wild boar can challenge elimination and prevent disease-free status, making it necessary to address wild swine in proactive response plans. In the U.S., invasive wild pigs are abundant and found across a wide range of ecological conditions that could drive different epidemiological dynamics among populations. Information on size of control areas required to rapidly eliminate ASFv in wild pigs and how this area should change with management constraints and local ecology are needed to optimize response planning. We developed a spatially-explicit disease transmission model contrasting wild pig movement and contact ecology in two ecosystems in southeastern U.S. We simulated ASFv spread and determined optimal response area (reported as radius of a circle) for eliminating ASFv rapidly over a range of detection times (when ASFv is detected relative to true date of introduction), culling capacities (proportion of wild pigs in the culling zone removed weekly), and wild pig densities. Large radii for response areas (14 km) were needed under most conditions but could be shortened with early detection (≤ 8 weeks) and high culling capacities (≥ 15% weekly). Under most conditions ASFv was eliminated in less than 22 weeks using optimal control radii, although ecological conditions with high rates of wild pig movement required higher culling capacities (≥ 10% weekly) for elimination within one year. Results highlight the importance of adjusting response plans based on local ecology and show wild pig movement is a better predictor of optimal response area than numbers of ASFv cases early in the outbreak trajectory. Our framework provides a tool for determining optimal control plans in different areas, guiding expectations of response impacts, and planning resources needed for rapid elimination. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.