Using hospital-based studies of community-onset bloodstream infections to make inferences about typhoid fever incidence

Retrospective Review of Blood Culture-Confirmed Cases of Enteric Fever in Navi Mumbai, India: 2014-2018

India has one of the highest estimated burdens of enteric fever globally. Prior to the implementation of Typbar-TCV typhoid conjugate vaccine (TCV) in a public sector pediatric immunization campaign in Navi Mumbai, India, we conducted a retrospective review of blood culture-confirmed cases of typhoid and paratyphoid fevers to estimate the local burden of disease. This review included all blood cultures processed at a central microbiology laboratory, serving multiple hospitals, in Navi Mumbai (January 2014-May 2018) that tested positive for either Salmonella Typhi or Salmonella Paratyphi A. Of 40,670 blood cultures analyzed, 1,309 (3.2%) were positive for S. Typhi (1,201 [92%]) or S. Paratyphi A (108 [8%]). Culture positivity was highest in the last months of the dry season (April-June). Our findings indicate a substantial burden of enteric fever in Navi Mumbai and support the importance of TCV immunization campaigns and improved water, sanitation, and hygiene.

Facility-based disease surveillance and Bayesian hierarchical modeling to estimate endemic typhoid fever incidence, Kilimanjaro Region, Tanzania, 2007–2018

Growing evidence suggests considerable variation in endemic typhoid fever incidence at some locations over time, yet few settings have multi-year incidence estimates to inform typhoid control measures. We sought to describe a decade of typhoid fever incidence in the Kilimanjaro Region of Tanzania. Cases of blood culture confirmed typhoid were identified among febrile patients at two sentinel hospitals during three study periods: 2007–08, 2011–14, and 2016–18. To account for under-ascertainment at sentinel facilities, we derived adjustment multipliers from healthcare utilization surveys done in the hospital catchment area. Incidence estimates and credible intervals (CrI) were derived using a Bayesian hierarchical incidence model that incorporated uncertainty of our observed typhoid fever prevalence, of healthcare seeking adjustment multipliers, and of blood culture diagnostic sensitivity. Among 3,556 total participants, 50 typhoid fever cases were identified. Of typhoid cases, 26 (52%) were male and the median (range) age was 22 (<1–60) years; 4 (8%) were aged <5 years and 10 (20%) were aged 5 to 14 years. Annual typhoid fever incidence was estimated as 61.5 (95% CrI 14.9–181.9), 6.5 (95% CrI 1.4–20.4), and 4.0 (95% CrI 0.6–13.9) per 100,000 persons in 2007–08, 2011–14, and 2016–18, respectively. There were no deaths among typhoid cases. We estimated moderate typhoid incidence (≥10 per 100 000) in 2007–08 and low (<10 per 100 000) incidence during later surveillance periods, but with overlapping credible intervals across study periods. Although consistent with falling typhoid incidence, we interpret this as showing substantial variation over the study periods. Given potential variation, multi-year surveillance may be warranted in locations making decisions about typhoid conjugate vaccine introduction and other control measures.

There is evidence that typhoid fever incidence may vary over time, but there are few longitudinal studies estimating incidence. This is especially true in Sub-Saharan Africa, where recent estimates show wide variation in incidence across different settings, but very limited longitudinal descriptions from those settings. Incidence estimates were generated using facility-based surveillance data from three study periods that was adjusted for health-seeking behavior established through healthcare utilization surveys performed in the catchment area. In addition to coupling facility-based surveillance data with healthcare utilization data, we utilized a Bayesian statistical methodology in order to estimate incidence and characterize uncertainty around the estimates. Our results demonstrate moderate typhoid incidence in 2007–08 and low incidence during 2012–14 and 2016–18, but with overlapping credible intervals across study periods. Our data are consistent with evidence that endemic typhoid may vary substantially over time. Given potential variation, multi-year surveillance may be warranted in locations making decisions about typhoid conjugate vaccine introduction and other control measures.

Incidence of non-typhoidal Salmonella invasive disease: A systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVES

We sought to collate and summarize high-quality data on non-typhoidal Salmonella invasive disease (iNTS) incidence to provide contemporary incidence estimates by location and year.

METHODS

We systematically searched the databases Embase + MEDLINE, Web of Science, and PubMed for articles published on the incidence of iNTS from inception of the database through 8 May 2020 with no language, country, date, or demographic restrictions applied. A meta-analysis was performed to report pooled iNTS incidence as a rate of cases per 100,000 per year.

RESULTS

Among 13 studies eligible for analysis, there were 68 estimates of incidence. Overall pooled incidence (95% CI) was 44.8 (31.5-60.5) per 100,000 persons per year. When stratified by region, pooled incidence was significantly higher in Africa than Asia, 51.0 (36.3-68.0) compared to 1.0 (0.2-2.5), respectively. Incidence was consistently higher in children aged <5 years compared with older age groups. Incidence displayed considerable heterogeneity in both place and time, varying substantially between locations and over consecutive years in the same location.

CONCLUSIONS

iNTS incidence varies by region, location, age group, and over time. Concerted efforts are needed to address the limited high-quality data available on iNTS disease incidence.