Global, regional and national disability-adjusted life years due to HIV from 1990 to 2019: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Global burden and trends in female premenstrual syndrome study during 1990-2019

PURPOSE

Premenstrual syndrome (PMS) is prevalent worldwide and considered a crucial issue regarding women's health. In the present study, the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019 dataset was utilized to assess the distributional trends in PMS burden and prevalence in regional, national, and sociodemographic index (SDI) categories.

METHODS

The analytical methods and approaches used in the 2019 GBD study were adopted to investigate the incidence rates and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) related to PMS in 204 countries or regions. Age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR), 95% uncertainty intervals (95% UI), and annual percentage changes (EAPC) were calculated from the data.

RESULTS

The global incidence and disability-adjusted life years of PMS exhibited a declining trend in the year 2019. Regions with medium-low SDI had the greatest burden of PMS, with the regions of South Asia (ASR = 7337.9 per 10,000) exhibiting the greatest Age-standardized incidence rates, while the high-income North American states presented the fastest upward trends in Age-standardized disability-adjusted life year rates. At the national level, 107 nations exhibited a decreasing trend in PMS incidence ASR, while 97 nations exhibited an increasing trend, with the United States presenting the greatest increase.

CONCLUSIONS

The present study highlighted that even though the global PMS incidence and disability-adjusted life years have decreased from the year 1990 to 2019, PMS remains a prevalent health concern for women worldwide. While addressing preventive measures and treatment, it is also important to consider the regional and national differences in PMS to develop further effective and targeted health policies.

The importance of self-management for better treatment outcomes for HIV patients in a low-income setting: perspectives of HIV experts and service providers

BACKGROUND

Self-management is the most important strategy to improve quality of life in patients with a chronic disease. Despite the increasing number of people living with HIV (PLWH) in low-income countries, very little research on self-management is conducted in this setting. The aim of this research is to understand the perspectives of service providers and experts on the importance of self-management for PLWH.

METHODS

A systematizing expert interview type of qualitative methodology was used to gain the perspectives of experts and service providers. The study participants had experience in researching, managing, or providing HIV service in east and southern African (ESA) countries. All the interviews were audio recorded, transcribed, and translated to English. The quality of the transcripts was ensured by randomly checking the texts against the audio record. A thematic analysis approach supported by Atlas TI version 9 software.

RESULT

PLWH face a variety of multi-dimensional problems thematized under contextual and process dimensions. The problems identified under the contextual dimension include disease-specific, facility-related, and social environment-related. Problems with individual origin, such as ignorance, outweighing beliefs over scientific issues, low self-esteem, and a lack of social support, were mostly highlighted under the process dimensions. Those problems have a deleterious impact on self-management, treatment outcomes, and the quality of life of PLWH. Low self-management is also a result of professional-centered service delivery in healthcare facilities and health service providers' incapacity to comprehend a patient's need beyond the medical concerns. Participants in the study asserted that patients have a significant stake in enhancing treatment results and quality of life through enhancing self-management.

CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION

HIV patients face multifaceted problems beyond their medical issues. The success of medical treatment for HIV is strongly contingent upon patients' self-management practices and the supportive roles of their family, society, and health service providers. The development and integration of self-management practices into clinical care will benefit patients, their families, and the health system.

Machine learning prediction models for clinical management of blood-borne viral infections: a systematic review of current applications and future impact

BACKGROUND

Machine learning (ML) prediction models to support clinical management of blood-borne viral infections are becoming increasingly abundant in medical literature, with a number of competing models being developed for the same outcome or target population. However, evidence on the quality of these ML prediction models are limited.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to evaluate the development and quality of reporting of ML prediction models that could facilitate timely clinical management of blood-borne viral infections.

METHODS

We conducted narrative evidence synthesis following the synthesis without meta-analysis guidelines. We searched PubMed and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials for all studies applying ML models for predicting clinical outcomes associated with hepatitis B virus (HBV), human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), or hepatitis C virus (HCV).

RESULTS

We found 33 unique ML prediction models aiming to support clinical decision making. Overall, 12 (36.4%) focused on HBV, 10 (30.3%) on HCV, 10 on HIV (30.3%) and two (6.1%) on co-infection. Among these, six (18.2%) addressed the diagnosis of infection, 16 (48.5%) the prognosis of infection, eight (24.2%) the prediction of treatment response, two (6.1%) progression through a cascade of care, and one (3.03%) focused on the choice of antiretroviral therapy (ART). Nineteen prediction models (57.6%) were developed using data from high-income countries. Evaluation of prediction models was limited to measures of performance. Detailed information on software code accessibility was often missing. Independent validation on new datasets and/or in other institutions was rarely done.

CONCLUSION

Promising approaches for ML prediction models in blood-borne viral infections were identified, but the lack of robust validation, interpretability/explainability, and poor quality of reporting hampered their clinical relevance. Our findings highlight important considerations that can inform standard reporting guidelines for ML prediction models in the future (e.g., TRIPOD-AI), and provides critical data to inform robust evaluation of the models.

Digital Assessment of the Knowledge, Attitudes and Preparedness of Dentists towards Providing Dental Treatment to People Living with HIV in Northern Brazil

People living with HIV (PLWH) continue to face stigma and discrimination during dental treatment in Brazil. This study aimed to describe the sociodemographic, educational and professional characteristics of dentists working in the Northern Brazilian region and to identify the level of knowledge of these health professionals in relation to the care and management of PLWH using a digital form.

METHODS

This cross-sectional study was population-based among dentists and was conducted between July and December 2021. A total of 396 dentists were invited using the "snowball" sampling technique and received an anonymous digital form (Google® Forms platform) composed of four blocks of dichotomous and multiple-choice questions. After signing the informed consent form, dentists were divided into seven groups according to the amount of time that had passed (in years) since they had completed their bachelor's degree in dentistry. A total of 25 questions referring to sociodemographic, educational and professional factors and knowledge about the dental care of PLWH were asked, and all data were presented as descriptive percentages and then analyzed using the Kappa test.

RESULTS

The average age was 31.9 years, and the states of Pará and Amazonas presented better knowledge about the dental care of PLWH. Dental prostheses (62/381-16.3%), orthodontics (57/381-15%) and periodontics (56/381-14.7%) were the most cited dental specialties, and demographic, professional and epidemiological characteristics showed a statistically significant difference regarding knowledge (<0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

The knowledge of dentists in Northern Brazil is partially high, although there is some lack of knowledge about the dental care of PLWH.

Trend and projection of larynx cancer incidence and mortality in China from 1990 to 2044: A Bayesian age-period-cohort modeling study

BACKGROUND

Larynx cancer is one of the most common cancers in head and neck, and imposes heavy burden on individual and societies. A comprehensive understanding of the burden of larynx cancer is necessary to improve prevention and control strategies. However, the secular trend of larynx cancer incidence and mortality in China remains unclear.

METHODS

The incidence and deaths rates of larynx cancer from 1990 to 2019 were collected from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 database. The temporal trend of larynx cancer was analyzed using a joinpoint regression model. The age-period-cohort model was used to explore the age, period, and cohort effects on larynx cancer and predict future trends up to 2044.

RESULTS

From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized incidence rate of larynx cancer in China increased by 1.3% (95% CI 1.1 to 1.5) in males, but decreased by 0.5% (95% CI -0.1 to 0) in females. The age-standardized mortality rate of larynx cancer in China decreased by 0.9% (95% CI -1.1 to -0.6) and 2.2% (95% CI -2.8 to -1.7) in males and females, respectively. Among the four risk factors, smoking and alcohol use contributed to a heavier burden compared to occupational exposure to asbestos and sulfuric acid with respect to mortality. Age effects showed that the incidence and deaths of larynx cancer were concentrated in people older than 50 years old. Period effects exerted the most significant effect on larynx cancer incidence for males. In terms of cohort effects, people born in the earlier cohorts presented a higher risk of larynx cancer compared with the later cohorts. From 2020 to 2044, the age-standardized incidence rates of larynx cancer continued to increase in males, whereas the age-standardized mortality rates continued to decrease in both males and females.

CONCLUSION

The burden of larynx cancer in China has a significant gender difference. The age-standardized incidence rates will continue to increase in males up to 2044. The disease pattern and risk factors of larynx cancer should be comprehensively studied to promote the development of timely intervention measures and relieve the burden effectively.

Evaluating the global, regional, and national impact of syphilis: results from the global burden of disease study 2019

Syphilis is a global public health concern. This study aimed to assess the global and regional burden of syphilis from 1990 to 2019. Disease burden was evaluated using disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and prevalence. Data were extracted from the 2019 global burden of disease Study, an open database available for download. Age-standardized rates (ASR) and estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC) were calculated to evaluate the syphilis burden over time. In 2019, the total number of prevalent cases of syphilis was 49.71 million worldwide. The ASR of prevalence was stable from 1990 to 2019 with an EAPC of 0.00 (95% CI - 0.10-0.11). The number of DALYs caused by syphilis was 7.36 million in 2019, reflecting a reduction of 16.38% compared with that in 1990 (8.80 million). The ASR of DALYs exhibited a decreasing trend from 1990 to 2019 (EAPC =  - 1.01; 95% CI - 1.19 to - 0.84), with the highest rates observed in the younger age group (< 14 years old). In 2019, the highest ASR of DALYs was found in low sociodemographic index (SDI) regions (239.21/100,000), and the lowest in high SDI regions (3.14/100,000). Generally, the ASR of DALYs decreased as the SDI increased. The top three countries with the highest ASR of DALYs for syphilis were the Solomon Islands, Equatorial Guinea, and Liberia. While the global prevalence of syphilis remained persistently high from 1990 to 2019, there has been a recent decrease in the ASR of DALYs. Increased attention should be dedicated to younger populations and regions characterized by low SDIs.

Global, regional, and national HIV/AIDS disease burden levels and trends in 1990-2019: A systematic analysis for the global burden of disease 2019 study

Background

Since the first HIV/AIDS case appeared in 1980s, HIV/AIDS has been the focus of international attention. As a major public health problem, there are epidemiological uncertainties about the future of HIV/AIDS. It is important to monitor the global statistics of HIV/AIDS prevalence, deaths, disability adjusted life years (DALYs), and risk factors for adequate prevention and control.

Methods

The Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 database was used to analyze the burden of HIV/AIDS in 1990-2019. By extracting global, regional, and national data on HIV/AIDS prevalence, deaths, and DALYs, we described the distribution by age and sex, explored the risk factors, and analyzed the trends in HIV/AIDS.

Results

In 2019, there were 36.85 million HIV/AIDS cases (95% UI: 35.15-38.86 million), 863.84 thousand deaths (95% UI: 78.61-99.60 thousand), and 47.63 million (95% UI: 42.63-55.65 million) DALYs. The global age-standardized HIV/AIDS prevalence, death, and DALY rates were 454.32 (95% UI: 433.76-478.59), 10.72 (95% UI: 9.70-12.39), and 601.49 (95% UI: 536.16-703.92) per 100,000 cases, respectively. In 2019, the global age-standardized HIV/AIDS prevalence, death, and DALY rates increased by 307.26 (95% UI: 304.45-312.63), 4.34 (95% UI: 3.78-4.90), and 221.91 (95% UI: 204.36-239.47) per 100,000 cases, respectively, compared to 1990. Age-standardized prevalence, death, and DALY rates decreased in high sociodemographic index (SDI) areas. High age-standardized rates were observed in low sociodemographic index areas, while low age-standardized rates were observed in high sociodemographic index areas. In 2019, the high age-standardized prevalence, death, and DALY rates were predominant in Southern Sub-Saharan Africa, and global DALYs peaked in 2004 and subsequently decreased. The highest global HIV/AIDS DALYs were in the 40-44 age group. The main risk factors affecting HIV/AIDS DALY rates included behavioral risks, drug use, partner violence, and unsafe sex.

Conclusions

HIV/AIDS disease burden and risk factors vary by region, sex, and age. As access to health care increases across countries and treatment for HIV/AIDS infection improves, the HIV/AIDS disease burden is concentrated in areas with low SDIs, particularly in South Africa. Regional differences should be fully considered to target optimal prevention strategies and treatment options based on risk factors.

Trends in the prevalence of conduct disorder from 1990 to 2019: Findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Conduct disorder is one of the least widely recognized and studied psychiatric disorders. This study aimed to comprehensively analyze the burden of conduct disorder at the global, regional, and national levels based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 estimates. Globally, the age-standardized prevalence rates (ASPRs) of conduct disorder slightly increased from 1990 to 2019 with an estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) at 0.147. Males had a higher burden than females, but females had a greater increment in ASPRs than males over time. In 2019, the highest ASPR of conduct disorder was observed in Western Europe, followed by Eastern Europe, with the lowest one found in East Asia, then South Asia. However, the most significant increment in ASPRs was observed in high-income North America, followed by East Asia, and South Asia. The EAPCs at the national level were negatively associated with the ASPRs in 1990. The burden of conduct disorder continues to increase globally, especially in high-income North America, East Asia, and South Asia, and should have more attention focused on it.

Global, regional, and national years lived with disability due to blindness and vision loss from 1990 to 2019: Findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Purpose

This study aimed to provide a comprehensive assessment of burden estimates and the secular trend of blindness and vision loss, as measured by years lived with disability (YLDs), at the global, regional, and national levels.

Methods

The age-standardized YLD rates (ASYRs) due to blindness and vision loss and its subtypes, including moderate vision loss, severe vision loss, blindness, and presbyopia, from 1990 to 2019 were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 database. The estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) were calculated to quantify the temporal trends in the ASYRs due to blindness and vision loss.

Results

In 2019, the global ASYRs per 100,000 population was 327.98 for blindness and vision loss, specifically, 85.81 for moderate vision loss, 74.86 for severe vision loss, 95.03 for blindness, and 62.27 for presbyopia. From 1990 to 2019, the ASYRs due to blindness and vision loss slightly decreased. Females showed higher ASYRs than males in 2019. The global highest ASYRs were observed in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. Negative associations were found between the burden estimates of blindness and vision loss and the sociodemographic index levels. The EAPCs of ASYRs in blindness and vision loss were significantly negatively correlated with the ASYRs in 1990 and positively correlated with human development indices in 2019.

Conclusions

Globally, blindness and vision loss continue to cause great losses of healthy life. Reasonable resource allocation and health-service planning are needed for the prevention and early intervention of disabilities caused by vision loss.

Secular Trends in the Burden of Multiple Myeloma From 1990 to 2019 and Its Projection Until 2044 in China

Objective

Multiple myeloma (MM) imposes a heavy burden in China. Understanding the secular trend of MM burden and projecting its future trend could facilitate appropriate public health planning and improve the management of MM.

Methods

Sex-specific incidence and mortality rates of MM in China from 1990 to 2019 were collected from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study. The secular trend of MM burden was analyzed by joinpoint regression. Age–period–cohort model was used to analyze the effects of age, period, and birth cohort on MM burden and project future trends up to 2044.

Results

From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of MM continued to increase in males. For females, the age-standardized rates were stable in MM incidence and decreased in MM mortality. Males had a higher disease burden of MM than females. Age effects were the most significant risk factor for MM incidence and mortality. Moreover, the risk of MM incidence and mortality increased with increasing time period but decreased with birth cohort in males and females. The age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of MM in China is predicted to be continuously increasing over the next 25 years.

Conclusion

The burden of MM in China is expected to continue to increase in the future, with significant sex difference. A comprehensive understanding of the risk characteristics and disease pattern of MM could help develop timely intervention measures to effectively reduce its burden.

Mean generation function model in AIDS epidemic estimation

Background

Since the first case of HIV infection was reported in China in 1985, the incidence and mortality of AIDS have been increasing rapidly, which has caused serious damage to the life and health of people in China and all over the world. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the technique for predicting AIDS morbidity and mortality. The purpose of this research is to explore the applicability of the mean generation function model (MGFM) in the early warning of AIDS morbidity and mortality, to predict its prevalence trend, to enrich the prediction techniques and methods of AIDS research and to provide suggestions for AIDS transmission control.

Methods

In this research, the MGFM was applied to predict the incidence and mortality of AIDS in China. AIDS incidence and mortality data in China from 2008 to 2019 were used to construct the prediction model.

Results

The MGFM can predict the annual incidence and mortality of AIDS. The model constructed in this research predicted that the incidence and mortality of AIDS in China will continue to increase from 2020 to 2023.

Conclusion

The mean birth function model was an effective method to monitor and predict the changing trend of AIDS incidence and mortality in China.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12911-022-01825-6.