Estimating the risk of dengue transmission from Dutch blood donors travelling to Suriname and the Dutch Caribbean

West Nile virus and blood transfusion safety: A European perspective

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

There is a growing concern for the transmission of arboviral infections by blood transfusion in Europe. However, no assessment of the risk of transmission through all European blood supplies has been reported. Risk regulations at a European level should take differences in local transmission risk and the risk of transmission by travelling donors into consideration.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A risk model and publicly available tool were developed to calculate the risk of transmission by all European blood supplies for arboviral outbreaks within Europe. Data on individual European blood supplies from Council of Europe reports and inter-European travel data from EUROSTAT were used to populate this model.

RESULTS

Each neuroinvasive case of WNV reported in Europe will on average result in 0·43 (95%CI: 0·32-0·55) infected blood product by locally infected donors and 0·010 (95%CI: 0·006-0·015) infected products by travelling donors. On basis of the 1373 neuroinvasive human WNV cases reported in the outbreak of 2018, it is estimated that without safety interventions this outbreak would have resulted in 708 (95%CI: 523-922) infected components derived from resident donors. Noncompliance to European regulations, which requires donor deferral or testing of donors who visited WNV-infected areas, would have resulted in 7.4 (95%CI: 4·7-11·1) infected blood components derived from infectious travelling donors exposed in outbreak areas throughout Europe.

CONCLUSION

The risk of WNV transmission by a local outbreak is on average 113 times (95%CI: 95-139), so two orders of magnitude higher than the risk of transmission by travelling donors in Europe.

Guillain-Barré Syndrome in Suriname; Clinical Presentation and Identification of Preceding Infections

Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) is associated with various types of preceding infections including Campylobacter jejuni and cytomegalovirus, but there is also an association with arthropod borne viruses (arboviruses), such as Zika virus, that are endemic in tropical regions. Here we present the clinical characteristics of 12 GBS patients from Suriname that were hospitalized between the beginning of 2016 and half 2018. Extensive diagnostic testing was performed for pathogens that are commonly associated with GBS, but also for arboviruses, in order to identify the preceding infection that might have led to GBS. With this extensive testing algorithm, we could identify a recent infection in six patients of which four of them had evidence of a recent Zika virus or dengue virus infection. These results suggest that arboviruses, specifically Zika virus but possibly also dengue virus, might be important causative agents of GBS in Suriname. Furthermore, we found that more accessibility of intravenous immunoglobulins or plasma exchange could improve the treatment of GBS in Suriname.

Estimation of mosquito-borne and sexual transmission of Zika virus in Australia: Risks to blood transfusion safety

BACKGROUND

Since 2015, Zika virus (ZIKV) outbreaks have occurred in the Americas and the Pacific involving mosquito-borne and sexual transmission. ZIKV has also emerged as a risk to global blood transfusion safety. Aedes aegypti, a mosquito well established in north and some parts of central and southern Queensland, Australia, transmits ZIKV. Aedes albopictus, another potential ZIKV vector, is a threat to mainland Australia. Since these conditions create the potential for local transmission in Australia and a possible uncertainty in the effectiveness of blood donor risk-mitigation programs, we investigated the possible impact of mosquito-borne and sexual transmission of ZIKV in Australia on local blood transfusion safety.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

We estimated 'best-' and 'worst-' case scenarios of monthly reproduction number (R0) for both transmission pathways of ZIKV from 1996-2015 in 11 urban or regional population centres, by varying epidemiological and entomological estimates. We then estimated the attack rate and subsequent number of infectious people to quantify the ZIKV transfusion-transmission risk using the European Up-Front Risk Assessment Tool. For all scenarios and with both vector species R0 was lower than one for ZIKV transmission. However, a higher risk of a sustained outbreak was estimated for Cairns, Rockhampton, Thursday Island, and theoretically in Darwin during the warmest months of the year. The yearly estimation of the risk of transmitting ZIKV infection by blood transfusion remained low through the study period for all locations, with the highest potential risk estimated in Darwin.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

Given the increasing demand for plasma products in Australia, the current strategy of restricting donors returning from infectious disease outbreak regions to source plasma collection provides a simple and effective risk management approach. However, if local transmission was suspected in the main urban centres of Australia, potentially facilitated by the geographic range expansion of Ae. aegypti or Ae. albopictus, this mitigation strategy would need urgent review.

Risk of chikungunya virus transmission associated with European travelers returning from southern Thailand (2008-2015)

BACKGROUND

The impact of the spread of chikungunya virus (CHIKV) by autochthonous transmission and blood transfusion in nonendemic areas via travelers returning from CHIKV-affected locations is a concern.

METHODS

We analyzed the risks of potential CHIKV importation and transfusion transmission from Thailand to Europe via travelers visiting southern Thailand from 2008 through 2015, using the web-based European Up-front Risk Assessment Tool.

RESULTS

The risk of CHIKV importation by European travelers returning from Thailand from 2008 through 2015 varied depending on the year of travel, tourist destination, duration of stay, and time since last possible exposure. Specifically, the risks of acquiring CHIKV among travelers visiting Songkhla and Krabi for 1, 5, or 10-30 days during the highest epidemic activity in 2009 were estimated to be 74.40, 371.99, and 706.77 (Songkhla) and 1.82, 9.08, and 17.25 (Krabi) per 100,000 travelers, respectively. In contrast, such risks were estimated to be fewer than 0.099 per 100,000 travelers in nonepidemic years. The 2009 yearly average rates of expected incidence among 4,059,988 European travelers who stayed for 1 or 10-30 days in all six outbreak activity destinations were calculated to be, respectively, 4.01 × 10^-6 or 1.20 × 10^-4 cases per day, corresponding to the estimated rates of viremia and transfusion-transmitted CHIKV via traveling blood donations of 3.21 × 10^-5 and 0.61, and 9.62 × 10^-4 and 3.34, respectively. Additionally, it is probable that 18 (0.0004%) Europeans acquired CHIKV in Thailand, representing a maximum attack rate of 0.0023%.

CONCLUSION

The extent of the expected risks and attack rates of CHIKV infection might reflect the travel preferences for popular destinations rather than the true risks of CHIKV transmission in travelers' home nonendemic countries. Nevertheless, preventive and blood-safety intervention measures may be applied to returning travelers at risk for infection to reduce CHIKV transfusion threats in their home countries.

Assessing the Threat: Public Health

This chapter describes three methods for assessing the impact of transfusion-transmitted infections on public health. In order of increasing precision and labor intensity, these tools are:

A blueprint for a structured, qualitative inventory and report, describing the relevant characteristics of the emerging agent, which helps to make ad hoc decisions and which identifies gaps in our knowledge.

Two more sophisticated “off the shelf” methods for the quantitative analysis of threats to blood safety are mentioned: the Biggerstaff-Petersen model and the European Up-Front Risk Assessment Tool (EUFRAT). The Biggerstaff-Petersen model estimates the number of potentially infectious donations, while EUFRAT also takes into account the components prepared from donations and the efficacy of various mitigating interventions.

Finally examples of quantitative studies of specific agents are mentioned: a donor-recipient transmission study and a cost-benefit modeling study. For this kind of analysis, no standardized recipe is available.

Emerging infectious disease outbreaks: estimating disease risk in Australian blood donors travelling overseas

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

International travel assists spread of infectious pathogens. Australians regularly travel to South-eastern Asia and the isles of the South Pacific, where they may become infected with infectious agents, such as dengue (DENV), chikungunya (CHIKV) and Zika (ZIKV) viruses that pose a potential risk to transfusion safety. In Australia, donors are temporarily restricted from donating for fresh component manufacture following travel to many countries, including those in this study. We aimed to estimate the unmitigated transfusion-transmission (TT) risk from donors travelling internationally to areas affected by emerging infectious diseases.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We used the European Up-Front Risk Assessment Tool, with travel and notification data, to estimate the TT risk from donors travelling to areas affected by disease outbreaks: Fiji (DENV), Bali (DENV), Phuket (DENV), Indonesia (CHIKV) and French Polynesia (ZIKV).

RESULTS

We predict minimal risk from travel, with the annual unmitigated risk of an infected component being released varying from 1 in 1·43 million to <1 in one billion and the risk of severe consequences ranging from 1 in 130 million to <1 in one billion.

CONCLUSION

The predicted unmitigated likelihood of infection in blood components manufactured from donors travelling to the above-mentioned areas was very low, with the possibility of severe consequences in a transfusion recipient even smaller. Given the increasing demand for plasma products in Australia, the current strategy of restricting donors returning from select infectious disease outbreak areas to source plasma collection provides a simple and effective risk management approach.

Emerging Infectious Diseases and Blood Safety: Modeling the Transfusion-Transmission Risk

While the transfusion-transmission (TT) risk associated with the major transfusion-relevant viruses such as HIV is now very low, during the last 20 years there has been a growing awareness of the threat to blood safety from emerging infectious diseases, a number of which are known to be, or are potentially, transfusion transmissible. Two published models for estimating the transfusion-transmission risk from EIDs, referred to as the Biggerstaff-Petersen model and the European Upfront Risk Assessment Tool (EUFRAT), respectively, have been applied to several EIDs in outbreak situations. We describe and compare the methodological principles of both models, highlighting their similarities and differences. We also discuss the appropriateness of comparing results from the two models. Quantitating the TT risk of EIDs can inform decisions about risk mitigation strategies and their cost-effectiveness. Finally, we present a qualitative risk assessment for Zika virus (ZIKV), an EID agent that has caused several outbreaks since 2007. In the latest and largest ever outbreak, several probable cases of transfusion-transmission ZIKV have been reported, indicating that it is transfusion-transmissible and therefore a risk to blood safety. We discuss why quantitative modeling the TT risk of ZIKV is currently problematic.

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During the last 20 years there has been a growing awareness of the threat to blood safety from emerging infectious diseases (EIDs), a number of which are known to be, or are potentially, transfusion-transmissible.

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The transfusion-transmission risk of EID agents can be estimated by risk modeling which can form an important part of risk assessments and inform decisions regarding risk mitigation strategies.

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We describe and compare the methodological principles of two published risk models for estimating the transfusion transmission risk of EIDs.

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We use Zika virus as a case study to demonstrate that reliable risk modeling for EID agents can be problematic due to the uncertainty of the input parameters.