Latent therapeutic demand model for the immunoglobulin replacement therapy of primary immune deficiency disorders in the USA

Using a scenario approach to assess for the current and future demand of immunoglobulins: An interview and literature study from The Netherlands

OBJECTIVES

To explore the current and future demand of immunoglobulins globally and specifically for the Netherlands by assessing: (I) which specialties contribute to current demand, (II) new areas of medical need, (III) which transformational factors may impact demand and to what effect, by using a scenario approach.

BACKGROUND

As immunoglobulin demand continues to increase globally, there is concern of increasing shortages and questions of whether and how future demand will continue based on medical need.

METHODS/MATERIALS

In line with scenario principles, a scoping review of Pubmed, Web of Science, Embase and Cochrane and grey literature was conducted. Semi-structured interviews with subject matter experts were held. The results of the review and interviews were analysed for major themes.

RESULTS

The scoping review resulted in 97 articles, 74 regarding clinical uses, and 23 regarding organisational and other themes. Fifteen clinical and non-clinical experts were interviewed. I) Neurology, immunology, and haematology were specialties that contribute most to current demand. II) Regarding potential new areas of medical need, the literature review resulted in more indications than the interviews, for example, post-renal transplants. III) Four groups of key transformational factors were found: factors that could increase immunoglobulin demand (e.g., EMA revisions), decrease demand (e.g., replacement products, Dutch Transfer Act 2021), factors that remain to be seen how it impacts demand (e.g., further evidence), and miscellaneous factors (e.g., supply-related).

CONCLUSION

Having identified the specialties and relevant transformational factors that affect immunoglobulin demand, more research is needed on what clinical or organisational strategies would be effective in controlling demand in general for the Netherlands and abroad. Other blood establishments may also use a scenario approach to increase preparedness for future (un)expected developments.

Estimation of the latent therapeutic demand for immunoglobulin therapies in autoimmune neuropathies in the United States

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

The use of immunoglobulin (IG) solutions as an immunomodulatory therapy in certain neurological conditions has become an established modality and represents a significant proportion of total IG use. The estimation of the evidence-based potential demand designated as the latent therapeutic demand (LTD) for IG in these diseases is required for adequate planning of the plasma supply required to manufacture the product.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The diseases studied included chronic inflammatory demyelinating polyneuropathy (CIDP), Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) and multifocal motor neuropathy (MMN). The LTD for IG was assessed using a decision analysis model, using Microsoft Excel. The model analysed the epidemiological and clinical factors contributing to IG usage. One-way sensitivity analysis and probabilistic sensitivity analysis derived the LTD in grams per 1000 inhabitants. The key variables included the treatment schedule and the prevalence of the disease.

RESULTS

The model estimates that an average annual IG demand and standard deviation for CIDP, GBS and MMN in the United States is 83.05 ± 24.5, 6.1 ± 3.2 and 36.1 ± 25.5 g/1000 inhabitants, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Together with previous work on the LTD for IG in immunodeficiencies, these results indicate that current IG usage reflects the estimated LTD for the main indications for IG in the United States The wide range of LTD found in all these studies emphasizes the need for more precise assessment of the underlying variables, particularly disease prevalence and dosage. Further studies on other indications such as secondary immunodeficiencies will augment these results and will assist in guiding demand planning for IG use and plasma collection in the United States and inform blood policy in other countries.

The Importance of Primary Immune Deficiency Registries: The United States Immunodeficiency Network Registry

The importance of registries is vital for almost every human disease but crucial for rare disorders, where the centralized collection, organization, and quality check of data create a platform from where multiple analyses and scientific advances are possible. In this article, the authors review the creation of the United States Immunodeficiency Network registry, its role, and the numerous scientific achievements generated from the collective effort of many.

The growing importance of achieving national self-sufficiency in immunoglobulin in Italy. The emergence of a national imperative

Since the inception of industrial plasma fractionation during the Second World War, a succession of protein therapies isolated from plasma have determined the volume of plasma requiring collection, and have also shaped the economics of the industry. These so-called plasma drivers have successively included albumin, coagulation Factor VIII (FVIII) and, for the past thirty years, intravenously (IV) and subcutaneously (SC) administered immunoglobulin (IG) solutions. The sale of IG underpins the profitability of the industry and has experienced continuous growth over the past decades, as the result of growing clinical demand. Modelling this demand using decision analysis indicates that supplying the evidence-based indications for IG therapies will generate a need for IG which exceeds the current plasma collection capacity of most countries. A notable exception to this situation is the United States (US) of America, whose population of compensated plasma donors generates two thirds of the global supply of plasma for fractionation. The US is also the leading consumer of IG, and its health care providers pay the highest price for the product globally. Shortages of IG occur whenever the demand for the product outstrips the supply. Current shortages, following other historical periods of shortage, threaten the well-being of patients dependant on these products and incur heavy costs on health systems. In Italy, the national blood system, which is based on voluntary unpaid donors, reflects a policy of national self-sufficiency in blood-derived therapies (a strategic objective of the national blood system itself), based on solidarity as an ethical principle. This system has increased the collection of plasma for fractionation by 3.8% per annum over 2008-2017, in accordance to a plan for plasma procurement targeting a collection rate of 14.1 L of plasma per thousand (10³) population by 2020. Over the same period, IG usage has increased by 8.5/per annum, to 89.2 g IG/10³ population. In this paper, we review the factors which, increasingly, are causing an imbalance between the global supply and demand for IG, and we assess Italy's capacity to ensure that increasing this level of independence is no longer simply an ethical, but also an economic imperative, with implications for the security of Italy's health system.