Anticipating the locations in Europe of high-risk areas for West Nile virus outbreaks in 2021

West Nile virus in the Iberian Peninsula: using equine cases to identify high-risk areas for humans

BackgroundWest Nile virus (WNV) is a flavivirus with an enzootic cycle between birds and mosquitoes; humans and horses are incidental dead-end hosts. In 2020, the largest outbreak of West Nile virus infection in the Iberian Peninsula occurred, with 141 clusters in horses and 77 human cases.AimWe analysed which drivers influence spillover from the cycle to humans and equines and identified areas at risk for WNV transmission.MethodsBased on data on WNV cases in horses and humans in 2020 in Portugal and Spain, we developed logistic regression models using environmental and anthropic variables to highlight risk areas. Models were adapted to a high-resolution risk map.ResultsCases of WNV in horses could be used as indicators of viral activity and thus predict cases in humans. The risk map of horses was able to define high-risk areas for previous cases in humans and equines in Portugal and Spain, as well as predict human and horse cases in the transmission seasons of 2021 and 2022. We found that the spatial patterns of the favourable areas for outbreaks correspond to the main hydrographic basins of the Iberian Peninsula, jointly affecting Portugal and Spain.ConclusionA risk map highlighting the risk areas for potential future cases could be cost-effective as a means of promoting preventive measures to decrease incidence of WNV infection in Europe, based on a One Health surveillance approach.

An African West Nile virus risk map for travellers and clinicians

International travellers are exposed to pathogens not commonly found in their countries of residence, including West Nile virus (WNV). Due to the difficulty of its diagnosis, little is known about its distribution in Africa. Understanding the geographic extent of risk of WNV infections is a necessity for both travellers and clinicians who advise and treat them, since there is no human vaccine. To date, there is no risk map for WNV infections in humans in Africa. Having a high-resolution risk map for the virus could be of relevance before the trip, to take preventive measures, and after the trip, for appropriate diagnosis of the disease. Virus detection in humans along the African continent were collected from official reports, and published scientific research for the period 1940 to 2020, and then geo-referenced in order to use biogeographical modelling for WNV. Models were based on fuzzy logic and machine learning algorithms and were designed to identify the environmental drivers that explain the distribution of human cases and to locate favourable areas for infections. We elaborated a high-resolution risk map for WNV infections that highlights favourable areas for infections in Africa. Although WNV infections are widely spread across Africa, the risk of the disease is not homogenously distributed. Popular tourist destinations such as Morocco, Tunisia, and South Africa, are high-risk areas for WNV infection.

Mapping the Risk for West Nile Virus Transmission, Africa

West Nile virus (WNV) is an emergent arthropodborne virus that is transmitted from bird to bird by mosquitoes. Spillover events occur when infected mosquitoes bite mammals. We created a geopositioned database of WNV presence in Africa and considered reports of the virus in all animal components: reservoirs, vectors, and nonhuman dead-end hosts. We built various biogeographic models to determine which drivers explain the distribution of WNV throughout Africa. Wetlands of international importance for birds accounted for the detection of WNV in all animal components, whereas human-related drivers played a key role in the epizootic cases. We combined these models to obtain an integrative and large-scale perspective of the areas at risk for WNV spillover. Understanding which areas pose the highest risk would enable us to address the management of this spreading disease and to comprehend the translocation of WNV outside Africa through avian migration routes.