C-Reactive Protein as an Early Predictor of Efficacy in Advanced Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer Patients: A Tumor Dynamics-Biomarker Modeling Framework

In oncology, longitudinal biomarkers reflecting the patient's status and disease evolution can offer reliable predictions of the patient's response to treatment and prognosis. By leveraging clinical data in patients with advanced non-small-cell lung cancer receiving first-line chemotherapy, we aimed to develop a framework combining anticancer drug exposure, tumor dynamics (RECIST criteria), and C-reactive protein (CRP) concentrations, using nonlinear mixed-effects models, to evaluate and quantify by means of parametric time-to-event models the significance of early longitudinal predictors of progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). Tumor dynamics was characterized by a tumor size (TS) model accounting for anticancer drug exposure and development of drug resistance. CRP concentrations over time were characterized by a turnover model. An x-fold change in TS from baseline linearly affected CRP production. CRP concentration at treatment cycle 3 (day 42) and the difference between CRP concentration at treatment cycles 3 and 2 were the strongest predictors of PFS and OS. Measuring longitudinal CRP allows for the monitoring of inflammatory levels and, along with its reduction across treatment cycles, presents a promising prognostic marker. This framework could be applied to other treatment modalities such as immunotherapies or targeted therapies allowing the timely identification of patients at risk of early progression and/or short survival to spare them unnecessary toxicities and provide alternative treatment decisions.

A prognostic baseline blood biomarker and tumor growth kinetics integrated model in paclitaxel/platinum treated advanced non-small cell lung cancer patients

Paclitaxel/platinum chemotherapy, the backbone of standard first-line treatment of advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), exhibits high interpatient variability in treatment response and high toxicity burden. Baseline blood biomarker concentrations and tumor size (sum of diameters) at week 8 relative to baseline (RS8) are widely investigated prognostic factors. However, joint analysis of data on demographic/clinical characteristics, blood biomarker levels, and chemotherapy exposure-driven early tumor response for improved prediction of overall survival (OS) is clinically not established. We developed a Weibull time-to-event model to predict OS, leveraging data from 365 patients receiving paclitaxel/platinum combination chemotherapy once every three weeks for ≤six cycles. A developed tumor growth inhibition model, combining linear tumor growth and first-order paclitaxel area under the concentration-time curve-induced tumor decay, was used to derive individual RS8. The median model-derived RS8 in all patients was a 20.0% tumor size reduction (range from -78% to +15%). Whereas baseline carcinoembryonic antigen, cytokeratin fragments, and thyroid stimulating hormone levels were not significantly associated with OS in a subset of 221 patients, and lactate dehydrogenase, interleukin-6 and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio levels were significant only in univariate analyses (p value < 0.05); C-reactive protein (CRP) in combination with RS8 most significantly affected OS (p value < 0.01). Compared to the median population OS of 11.3 months, OS was 128% longer at the 5th percentile levels of both covariates and 60% shorter at their 95th percentiles levels. The combined paclitaxel exposure-driven RS8 and baseline blood CRP concentrations enables early individual prognostic predictions for different paclitaxel dosing regimens, forming the basis for treatment decision and optimizing paclitaxel/platinum-based advanced NSCLC chemotherapy.

Individual modelling of haematotoxicity with NARX neural networks: A knowledge transfer approach

Cytotoxic cancer therapy often results in dose-limiting haematotoxic side effects. Predicting an individual's risk is a major objective in precision medicine of cancer treatment. In this regard, patient heterogeneity presents a significant challenge. In this paper, we explore the use of hypothesis-free machine learning models based on recurrent nonlinear auto-regressive networks with exogenous inputs (NARX) as an approach to achieve this goal. Also, we propose a knowledge transfer approach to ameliorate the issue of sparse individual data, which typically hampers learning of individual networks. We demonstrate the feasibility of our approach based on a virtual patient population generated using a semi-mechanistic model of haematopoiesis and imposing different cytotoxic therapy scenarios on it. Employing different techniques of model optimisation, we derive robust and parsimonious individual networks with good generalisation performances. Moreover, we analyse in detail possible factors influencing the generalisation performance. Results suggest that our transfer learning approach using NARX networks can provide robust predictions of individual patient's response to treatment. As a practical perspective, we apply our approach to individual time series data of two patients with non-Hodgkin's lymphoma.

Population Pharmacokinetics of Palbociclib and Its Correlation with Clinical Efficacy and Safety in Patients with Advanced Breast Cancer

Neutropenia is the most frequent dose-limiting toxicity reported in patients with metastatic breast cancer receiving palbociclib. The objective of this study was to investigate the pharmacokinetic–pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) relationships for toxicity (i.e., absolute neutrophil count, ANC) and efficacy (i.e., progression-free survival, PFS). A semi-mechanistic PK/PD model was used to predict neutrophils’ time course using a population approach (NONMEM). Influence of demographic and clinical characteristics was evaluated. Cox proportional hazards models were developed to evaluate the influence of palbociclib PK on PFS. A two-compartment model with first-order absorption and a lag time adequately described the 255 palbociclib concentrations provided by 44 patients. The effect of the co-administration of proton-pump inhibitors in fasting conditions increased palbociclib clearance by 56%. None of the tested covariates affected the PD parameters. Model-based simulations confirmed the concentration-dependent and non-cumulative properties of palbociclib-induced neutropenia, reversible after treatment withdrawal. The ANC nadir occurred approximately at day 24 of each cycle. Cox analyses revealed a trend for better PFS with increasing palbociclib exposure in older patients. By characterizing palbociclib-induced neutropenia, this model offers support to clinicians to rationally optimize treatment management through patient-individualized strategies.

A Pharmacometric Model to Predict Chemotherapy-Induced Myelosuppression and Associated Risk Factors in Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer

Chemotherapy often induces severe neutropenia due to the myelosuppressive effect. While predictive pharmacokinetic (PK)/pharmacodynamic (PD) models of absolute neutrophil count (ANC) after anticancer drug administrations have been developed, their deployments to routine clinics have been limited due to the unavailability of PK data and sparseness of PD (or ANC) data. Here, we sought to develop a model describing temporal changes of ANC in non-small cell lung cancer patients receiving (i) combined chemotherapy of paclitaxel and cisplatin and (ii) granulocyte colony stimulating factor (G-CSF) treatment when needed, under such limited circumstances. Maturation of myelocytes into blood neutrophils was described by transit compartments with negative feedback. The K-PD model was employed for drug effects with drug concentration unavailable and the constant model for G-CSF effects. The fitted model exhibited reasonable goodness of fit and parameter estimates. Covariate analyses revealed that ANC decreased in those without diabetes mellitus and female patients. Using the final model obtained, an R Shiny web-based application was developed, which can visualize predicted ANC profiles and associated risk of severe neutropenia for a new patient. Our model and application can be used as a supportive tool to identify patients at the risk of grade 4 neutropenia early and suggest dose reduction.

A continued learning approach for model-informed precision dosing: updating models in clinical practice

Model-informed precision dosing (MIPD) is a quantitative dosing framework that combines prior knowledge on the drug-disease-patient system with patient data from therapeutic drug/biomarker monitoring (TDM) to support individualized dosing in ongoing treatment. Structural models and prior parameter distributions used in MIPD approaches typically build on prior clinical trials that involve only a limited number of patients selected according to some exclusion/inclusion criteria. Compared to the prior clinical trial population, the patient population in clinical practice can be expected to include also altered behavior and/or increased interindividual variability, the extent of which, however, is typically unknown. Here, we address the question of how to adapt and refine models on the level of the model parameters to better reflect this real-world diversity. We propose an approach for continued learning across patients during MIPD using a sequential hierarchical Bayesian framework. The approach builds on two stages to separate the update of the individual patient parameters from updating the population parameters. Consequently, it enables continued learning across hospitals or study centers, since only summary patient data (on the level of model parameters) need to be shared, but no individual TDM data. We illustrate this continued learning approach with neutrophil-guided dosing of paclitaxel. The present study constitutes an important step towards building confidence in MIPD and eventually establishing MIPD increasingly in everyday therapeutic use.

Pharmacometrics-Based Considerations for the Design of a Pharmacogenomic Clinical Trial Assessing Irinotecan Safety

PURPOSE

Pharmacometric models provide useful tools to aid the rational design of clinical trials. This study evaluates study design-, drug-, and patient-related features as well as analysis methods for their influence on the power to demonstrate a benefit of pharmacogenomics (PGx)-based dosing regarding myelotoxicity.

METHODS

Two pharmacokinetic and one myelosuppression model were assembled to predict concentrations of irinotecan and its metabolite SN-38 given different UGT1A1 genotypes (poor metabolizers: CLSN-38: -36%) and neutropenia following conventional versus PGx-based dosing (350 versus 245 mg/m2 (-30%)). Study power was assessed given diverse scenarios (n = 50-400 patients/arm, parallel/crossover, varying magnitude of CLSN-38, exposure-response relationship, inter-individual variability) and using model-based data analysis versus conventional statistical testing.

RESULTS

The magnitude of CLSN-38 reduction in poor metabolizers and the myelosuppressive potency of SN-38 markedly influenced the power to show a difference in grade 4 neutropenia (<0.5·109 cells/L) after PGx-based versus standard dosing. To achieve >80% power with traditional statistical analysis (χ2/McNemar's test, α = 0.05), 220/100 patients per treatment arm/sequence (parallel/crossover study) were required. The model-based analysis resulted in considerably smaller total sample sizes (n = 100/15 given parallel/crossover design) to obtain the same statistical power.

CONCLUSIONS

The presented findings may help to avoid unfeasible trials and to rationalize the design of pharmacogenetic studies.

Reinforcement learning and Bayesian data assimilation for model-informed precision dosing in oncology

Model-informed precision dosing (MIPD) using therapeutic drug/biomarker monitoring offers the opportunity to significantly improve the efficacy and safety of drug therapies. Current strategies comprise model-informed dosing tables or are based on maximum a posteriori estimates. These approaches, however, lack a quantification of uncertainty and/or consider only part of the available patient-specific information. We propose three novel approaches for MIPD using Bayesian data assimilation (DA) and/or reinforcement learning (RL) to control neutropenia, the major dose-limiting side effect in anticancer chemotherapy. These approaches have the potential to substantially reduce the incidence of life-threatening grade 4 and subtherapeutic grade 0 neutropenia compared with existing approaches. We further show that RL allows to gain further insights by identifying patient factors that drive dose decisions. Due to its flexibility, the proposed combined DA-RL approach can easily be extended to integrate multiple end points or patient-reported outcomes, thereby promising important benefits for future personalized therapies.

Individual prediction of thrombocytopenia at next chemotherapy cycle: Evaluation of dynamic model performances

AIMS

Thrombocytopenia is a common major side-effect of cytotoxic cancer therapies. A clinically relevant problem is to predict an individual's thrombotoxicity in the next planned chemotherapy cycle in order to decide on treatment adaptation. To support this task, 2 dynamic mathematical models of thrombopoiesis under chemotherapy were proposed, a simple semimechanistic model and a comprehensive mechanistic model. In this study, we assess the performance of these models with respect to existing thrombocytopenia grading schemes.

METHODS

We consider close-meshed individual time series data of 135 non-Hodgkin's lymphoma patients treated with 6 cycles of CHOP/CHOEP chemotherapies. Individual parameter estimates were derived on the basis of these data considering a varying number of cycles per patient. Parsimony assumptions were applied to optimize parameter identifiability. Models' predictability are assessed by determining deviations of predicted and observed degrees of thrombocytopenia in the next cycles.

RESULTS

The mechanistic model results in better agreement of model prediction and individual time series data. Prediction accuracy of future cycle toxicities by the mechanistic model is higher even if the semimechanistic model is provided with data of more cycles for calibration.

CONCLUSION

We successfully established a quantitative and clinically relevant method for assessing prediction performances of biomathematical models of thrombopoiesis under chemotherapy. We showed that the more comprehensive mechanistic model outperforms the semimechanistic model. We aim at implementing the mechanistic model into clinical practice to assess its utility in real life clinical decision-making.

Role of TDM-based dose adjustments for taxane anticancer drugs

The classical taxanes (paclitaxel, docetaxel), the newer taxane cabazitaxel and the nanoparticle-bound nab-paclitaxel are among the most widely used anticancer drugs. Still, the optimal use and the value of pharmacological personalization of the taxanes is still controversial. We give an overview on the pharmacological properties of the taxanes, including metabolism, pharmacokinetics-pharmacodynamic relations and aspects in the clinical use of taxanes. The latter includes the ongoing debate on the most effective and safe regimen, the recommended initial dose, and pharmacological dosing individualization. The taxanes are among the most widely used anticancer drugs in patients with solid malignancies. Despite their longtime use in clinical routine, the optimal dosing strategy (weekly versus 3-weekly) or optimal average dose (cabazitaxel, nab-paclitaxel) has not been fully resolved, as it may differ according to tumour entity and line of treatment. The value of pharmacological individualization of the taxanes (TDM, TCI) has been partly explored for 3-weekly paclitaxel and docetaxel, but remains mostly unexplored for cabazitaxel and nab-paclitaxel at present.

Time-to-Event Analysis of Paclitaxel-Associated Peripheral Neuropathy in Advanced Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer Highlighting Key Influential Treatment/Patient Factors

Paclitaxel-associated peripheral neuropathy (PN), a major dose-limiting toxicity, significantly impacts patients' quality of life/treatment outcome. Evaluation of risk factors often ignores time of PN onset, precluding the impact of time-dependent factors, e.g., drug exposure, needed to comprehensively characterize PN. We employed parametric time-to-event (TTE) analysis to describe the time course of risk of first occurrence of clinically relevant PN grades ≥2 (PN2+, n = 105, common terminology criteria v4.0) and associated patient/treatment characteristics, leveraging data from 365 patients (1454 cycles) receiving paclitaxel every 3 weeks (plus carboplatin AUC = 6 or cisplatin 80 mg/m²) for ≤6 cycles. Paclitaxel was intravenously administered (3 hours) as standard 200-mg/m² doses (n = 182) or as pharmacokinetic-guided dosing (n = 183). A cycle-varying hazard TTE model linking surge in hazard of PN2+ to paclitaxel administration [PN2+ proportions (i.e., cases per 1000 patients), 1^st day, cycle 1: 4.87 of 1000; cycle 6: 7.36 of 1000] and linear decline across cycle (last day, cycle 1: 1.64 of 1000; cycle 6: 2.48 of 1000) adequately characterized the time-varying hazard of PN2+. From joint covariate evaluation, PN2+ proportions (1^st day, cycle 1) increased by 1.00 per 1000 with 5-μmol·h/l higher paclitaxel exposure per cycle (AUC between the start and end of a cycle, most relevant covariate), 0.429 per 1000 with 5-year higher age, 1.31 per 1000 (smokers vs. nonsmokers), and decreased by 0.670 per 1000 (females vs. males). Compared to 200 mg/m² dosing every 3 weeks, model-predicted cumulative risk of PN2+ was significantly higher (42%) with 80 mg/m² weekly dosing but reduced by 11% with 175 mg/m² dosing every 3 weeks. The established TTE modeling framework enables quantification and comparison of patient's cumulative risks of PN2+ for different clinically relevant paclitaxel dosing schedules, sparing patients PN2+ to improve paclitaxel therapy. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: Characterization of risk factors of paclitaxel-associated peripheral neuropathy (PN) typically involves time-independent comparison of PN odds in patient subpopulations, concealing the impact of time-dependent factors, e.g., changing paclitaxel exposure, required to comprehensively characterize PN. We developed a parametric time-to-event model describing the time course in risk of clinically relevant paclitaxel-associated PN, identifying the highest risk in older male smokers with higher paclitaxel area under the plasma concentration-time curve between the start and end of a cycle. The developed framework enabled quantification of patient's risk of PN for clinically relevant paclitaxel dosing schedules, facilitating future dosing decisions.

A physiologically based pharmacokinetic - pharmacodynamic modelling approach to predict incidence of neutropenia as a result of drug-drug interactions of paclitaxel in cancer patients

Paclitaxel is the backbone of standard chemotherapeutic regimens used in a number of malignancies and is frequently given with concomitant medications. Newly developed oncolytic agents, including tyrosine kinase inhibitors are often shown to be CYP3A4 and P-gp inhibitors. The aim of this study was to develop a PBPK model for intravenously administered paclitaxel in order to predict the incidence of neutropenia and to estimate the DDI potential as a victim drug. The dose-dependent effects on paclitaxel plasma protein binding, volume of distribution and drug clearance were considered for dose levels of 80 mg/m², 135 mg/m² and 175 mg/m². A pharmacodynamics model that incorporate the impact of paclitaxel on the neutrophil was developed. The relative metabolic clearance via CYP3A4 and CYP2C8, the renal clearance as well as P-gp mediated biliary clearance were incorporated in the model in order to assess the neutropenia in the presence of DDI. The developed PBPK-PD model was able to recover the drop in neutrophils observed after the administration of 175mg/m2 of paclitaxel over a 3-h duration. The mean nadir observed was 1.9 × 10⁹ neutrophils/L and was attained after 10 days of treatment, and a fraction of 47% of the population was predicted to have at some point a neutropenia including 12% with severe neutropenia. In the case of concomitant administration of ketoconazole, 39% of the population was predicted to suffer from severe neutropenia. In summary, PBPK-PD modeling allows a priori prediction of DDIs and safety events involving complex combination therapies which are often utilized in an oncology setting.

Model-Based Optimal AML Consolidation Treatment

OBJECTIVE

Neutropenia is an adverse event commonly arising during intensive chemotherapy of acute myeloid leukemia (AML). It is often associated with infectious complications. Mathematical modeling, simulation, and optimization of the treatment process would be a valuable tool to support clinical decision making, potentially resulting in less severe side effects and deeper remissions. However, until now, there has been no validated mathematical model available to simulate the effect of chemotherapy treatment on white blood cell (WBC) counts and leukemic cells simultaneously.

METHODS

We developed a population pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) model combining a myelosuppression model considering endogenous granulocyte-colony stimulating factor (G-CSF), a PK model for cytarabine (Ara-C), a subcutaneous absorption model for exogenous G-CSF, and a two-compartment model for leukemic blasts. This model was fitted to data of 44 AML patients during consolidation therapy with a novel Ara-C plus G-CSF schedule from a phase II controlled clinical trial. Additionally, we were able to optimize treatment schedules with respect to disease progression, WBC nadirs, and the amount of Ara-C and G-CSF.

RESULTS

The developed PK/PD model provided good prediction accuracies and an interpretation of the interaction between WBCs, G-CSF, and blasts. For 14 patients (those with available bone marrow blast counts), we achieved a median 4.2-fold higher WBC count at nadir, which is the most critical time during consolidation therapy. The simulation results showed that relative bone marrow blast counts remained below the clinically important threshold of 5%, with a median of 60% reduction in Ara-C.

CONCLUSION

These in silico findings demonstrate the benefits of optimized treatment schedules for AML patients.

SIGNIFICANCE

Until 2017, no new drug had been approved for the treatment of AML, fostering the optimal use of currently available drugs.

Model-Based Simulation of Maintenance Therapy of Childhood Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia

Acute lymphoblastic leukemia is the most common malignancy in childhood. Successful treatment requires initial high-intensity chemotherapy, followed by low-intensity oral maintenance therapy with oral 6-mercaptopurine (6MP) and methotrexate (MTX) until 2–3 years after disease onset. However, intra- and inter-individual variability in the pharmacokinetics (PK) and pharmacodynamics (PD) of 6MP and MTX make it challenging to balance the desired antileukemic effects with undesired excessive myelosuppression during maintenance therapy. A model to simulate the dynamics of different cell types, especially neutrophils, would be a valuable contribution to improving treatment protocols (6MP and MTX dosing regimens) and a further step to understanding the heterogeneity in treatment efficacy and toxicity. We applied and modified a recently developed semi-mechanistic PK/PD model to neutrophils and analyzed their behavior using a non-linear mixed-effects modeling approach and clinical data obtained from 116 patients. The PK model of 6MP influenced the accuracy of absolute neutrophil count (ANC) predictions, whereas the PD effect of MTX did not. Predictions based on ANC were more accurate than those based on white blood cell counts. Using the new cross-validated mathematical model, simulations of different treatment protocols showed a linear dose-effect relationship and reduced ANC variability for constant dosages. Advanced modeling allows the identification of optimized control criteria and the weighting of specific influencing factors for protocol design and individually adapted therapy to exploit the optimal effect of maintenance therapy on survival.

Bayesian Data Assimilation to Support Informed Decision Making in Individualized Chemotherapy

An essential component of therapeutic drug/biomarker monitoring (TDM) is to combine patient data with prior knowledge for model‐based predictions of therapy outcomes. Current Bayesian forecasting tools typically rely only on the most probable model parameters (maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimate). This MAP‐based approach, however, does neither necessarily predict the most probable outcome nor does it quantify the risks of treatment inefficacy or toxicity. Bayesian data assimilation (DA) methods overcome these limitations by providing a comprehensive uncertainty quantification. We compare DA methods with MAP‐based approaches and show how probabilistic statements about key markers related to chemotherapy‐induced neutropenia can be leveraged for more informative decision support in individualized chemotherapy. Sequential Bayesian DA proved to be most computationally efficient for handling interoccasion variability and integrating TDM data. For new digital monitoring devices enabling more frequent data collection, these features will be of critical importance to improve patient care decisions in various therapeutic areas.

Quantifying Drug-Induced Bone Marrow Toxicity Using a Novel Haematopoiesis Systems Pharmacology Model

Haematological toxicity associated with cancer therapeutics is monitored by changes in blood cell count, and their primary effect is on proliferative progenitors in the bone marrow. Using observations in rat bone marrow and blood, we characterize a mathematical model that comprises cell proliferation and differentiation of the full haematopoietic phylogeny, with interacting feedback loops between lineages in homeostasis as well as following carboplatin exposure. We accurately predicted the temporal dynamics of several mature cell types related to carboplatin-induced bone marrow toxicity and identified novel insights into haematopoiesis. Our model confirms a significant degree of plasticity within bone marrow cells, with the number and type of both early progenitors and circulating cells affecting cell balance, via feedback mechanisms, through fate decisions of the multipotent progenitors. We also demonstrated cross-species translation of our predictions to patients, applying the same core model structure and considering differences in drug-dependent and physiology-dependent parameters.

Computational disease model of phenobarbital-induced acute attacks in an acute intermittent porphyria mouse model

INTRODUCTION

Acute intermittent porphyria (AIP) is characterized by hepatic over-production of the heme precursors when aminolevulinic acid (ALA)-synthase 1 is induced by endogenous or environmental factors. The aim of this study was to develop a semi-mechanistic computational model to characterize urine accumulation of heme precursors during acute attacks based on experimental pharmacodynamics data and support the development of new therapeutic strategies.

METHODS

Male AIP mice received recurrent phenobarbital challenge starting on days 1, 9, 16 and 30. 24-h urine excretion of ALA, porphobilinogen (PBG) and porphyrins from challenges D1, D9 and D30 constituted the training data set to build the mechanistic model using the population approach. In a second study, porphyrin and porphyrin precursor excretion from challenge D16 were used as a validation data set.

RESULTS

The computational model presented the following features: (i) urinary excretion of ALA, PBG and porphyrins was governed by unmeasured circulating heme precursor amounts, (ii) the circulating amounts of ALA and PBG were the precursors of circulating amounts of PBG and porphyrins, respectively, and (iii) the phenobarbital effect linearly increased the synthesis of circulating ALA and PBG levels. The model displayed good parameter precision (coefficient of variation below 32% in all parameters), and adequately described the experimental data. Finally, a theoretical hemin effect was implemented to illustrate the applicability of the model to dosage optimization in drug therapies.

CONCLUSIONS

A semi-mechanistic disease model was successfully developed to describe the temporal evolution of urinary heme precursor excretion during recurrent biochemical-induced acute attacks in AIP mice. This model represents the first computational approach to explore and optimize current and new therapies.

Does Older Age Lead to Higher Risk for Neutropenia in Patients Treated with Paclitaxel?

PURPOSE

There is ongoing concern regarding increased toxicity from paclitaxel in elderly patients, particularly of severe neutropenia. Yet, data so far is controversial and this concern is not supported by a clinically relevant age-dependent difference in pharmacokinetics (PK) of paclitaxel. This study assessed whether age is associated with increased risk for paclitaxel-induced neutropenia.

METHODS

Paclitaxel plasma concentration-time data, pooled from multiple different studies, was combined with available respective neutrophil count data during the first treatment cycle. Paclitaxel pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PK-PD) data was modeled using a non-linear mixed effects approach and a semiphysiological neutropenia model, where systemic paclitaxel exposure was linked to reduced proliferation of neutrophils. The impact of age was evaluated on relevant variables in the model, using a significance threshold of p < 0.005.

RESULTS

Paclitaxel PK-PD data was evaluated from 300 patients, with a median age of 65 years (range 23-84 years), containing 116 patients ≥70 years (39%). First cycle neutrophil counts were adequately described by a threshold effect model of paclitaxel on the proliferation rate of neutrophils. Age as a continuous or dichotomous variable (≥70 versus <70 years) did not significantly impact sensitivity of the bone marrow to paclitaxel nor the average maturation time of neutrophils (both p > 0.005), causing a decline in the respective interindividual variability of <1%.

CONCLUSION

Results from this large retrospective patient cohort do not suggest elderly patients to be at an increased risk of developing paclitaxel-associated neutropenia during the first treatment cycle. Reflexive dose reductions of paclitaxel in elderly patients are unlikely to improve the risk of severe neutropenia and may be deleterious.

Mathematical models for cytarabine-derived myelosuppression in acute myeloid leukaemia

We investigate the personalisation and prediction accuracy of mathematical models for white blood cell (WBC) count dynamics during consolidation treatment using intermediate or high-dose cytarabine (Ara-C) in acute myeloid leukaemia (AML). Ara-C is the clinically most relevant cytotoxic agent for AML treatment. We extend a mathematical model of myelosuppression and a pharmacokinetic model of Ara-C with different hypotheses of Ara-C's pharmacodynamic effects. We cross-validate the 12 model variations using dense WBC count measurements from 23 AML patients. Surprisingly, the prediction accuracy remains satisfactory in each of the models despite different modelling hypotheses. Therefore, we compare average clinical and calculated WBC recovery times for different Ara-C schedules as a successful methodology for model discrimination. As a result, a new hypothesis of a secondary pharmacodynamic effect on the proliferation rate seems plausible. Furthermore, we demonstrate the impact of treatment timing on subsequent nadir values based on personalised predictions as a possibility for influencing/controlling myelosuppression.

Understanding Hematological Toxicities Using Mathematical Modeling

Balancing antitumor efficacy with toxicity is a significant challenge, and drug-induced myelosuppression is a common dose-limiting toxicity of cancer treatments. Mathematical modeling has proven to be a powerful ally in this field, scaling results from animal models to humans, and designing optimized treatment regimens. Here we outline existing mathematical approaches for studying bone marrow toxicity, identify gaps in current understanding, and make future recommendations to advance this vital field of safety research further.

Pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic modelling of neutrophil response to G-CSF in healthy subjects and patients with chemotherapy-induced neutropenia

AIM

The objective of the present study was to use pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic modelling to characterize the effects of chemotherapy on the granulopoietic system and to predict the absolute neutrophil counts (ANCs) for patients with chemotherapy-induced neutropenia treated with filgrastim and pegfilgrastim.

METHODS

Data were extracted from 10 phase I-III studies conducted in 110 healthy adults, and 618 adult and 52 paediatric patients on chemotherapy following administration of filgrastim or pegfilgrastim. The structural model accounted for ANC dynamics and the effects of filgrastim and pegfilgrastim, chemotherapy and corticosteroids. The impact of neutrophils on drug disposition was based on a drug receptor-binding model that assumed quasi-equilibrium and stimulation of the production and maturation of neutrophils upon treatment. The chemotherapy and corticosteroid effects were represented by kinetic-pharmacodynamic-type models, where chemotherapy stimulated elimination of neutrophil precursors at the mitotic stage, and corticosteroids stimulated neutrophil production.

RESULTS

The systemic half-lives of filgrastim (2.6 h) and pegfilgrastim (10.1 h) were as expected. The effective half-life of chemotherapy was 9.6 h, with a 2-day killing effect. The rate of receptor elimination from mitotic compartments exhibited extreme interindividual variability (% coefficient of variation >200), suggesting marked differences in sensitivity to chemotherapy effects on ANCs. The stimulatory effects of pegfilgrastim were significantly greater than those of filgrastim. Model qualification confirmed the predictive capability of this model.

CONCLUSION

This qualified model simulates the time course of ANC in the absence or presence of chemotherapy and predicts nadir, time to nadir and time of recovery from different grades of neutropenia upon treatment with filgrastim and pegfilgrastim.