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Santos CF, Agardy T, Brooks C, Gjerde KM, Payne C, Wedding LM, Xavier JC, Crowder LB. Taking climate-smart governance to the high seas. Science 2024; 384:734-737. [PMID: 38753785 DOI: 10.1126/science.adp4379] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/18/2024]
Abstract
Comprehensive spatial planning in international waters is key to achieving ocean sustainability.
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Affiliation(s)
- Catarina Frazão Santos
- Department of Animal Biology, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal
- Marine and Environmental Sciences Center and Aquatic Research Network, University of Lisbon, Lisbon, Portugal
- School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Tundi Agardy
- Sound Seas, Bethesda, MD, USA
- Worcester College, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Cassandra Brooks
- Department of Environmental Studies, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
- Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
| | - Kristina M Gjerde
- International Union for Conservation of Nature and World Commission on Protected Areas, Cambridge, MA, USA
- Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey, Monterey, CA, USA
| | - Cymie Payne
- Department of Human Ecology, School of Environmental and Biological Sciences and Law School, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, New Brunswick, NJ, USA
| | - Lisa M Wedding
- School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
- Worcester College, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - José C Xavier
- Universidade de Coimbra, Marine and Environmental Sciences Center and Aquatic Research Network, Coimbra, Portugal
- British Antarctic Survey, Natural Environment Research Council, Cambridge, UK
| | - Larry B Crowder
- Hopkins Marine Station, Stanford University, Pacific Grove, CA, USA
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Cheung WWL, Maire E, Oyinlola MA, Robinson JPW, Graham NAJ, Lam VWY, MacNeil MA, Hicks CC. Climate change exacerbates nutrient disparities from seafood. NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE 2023; 13:1242-1249. [PMID: 37927330 PMCID: PMC10624626 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-023-01822-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/26/2022] [Accepted: 08/24/2023] [Indexed: 11/07/2023]
Abstract
Seafood is an important source of bioavailable micronutrients supporting human health, yet it is unclear how micronutrient production has changed in the past or how climate change will influence its availability. Here combining reconstructed fisheries databases and predictive models, we assess nutrient availability from fisheries and mariculture in the past and project their futures under climate change. Since the 1990s, availabilities of iron, calcium and omega-3 from seafood for direct human consumption have increased but stagnated for protein. Under climate change, nutrient availability is projected to decrease disproportionately in tropical low-income countries that are already highly dependent on seafood-derived nutrients. At 4 oC of warming, nutrient availability is projected to decline by ~30% by 2100 in low income countries, while at 1.5-2.0 oC warming, decreases are projected to be ~10%. We demonstrate the importance of effective mitigation to support nutritional security of vulnerable nations and global health equity.
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Affiliation(s)
- William W. L. Cheung
- Changing Ocean Research Unit, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia Canada
| | - Eva Maire
- Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK
| | - Muhammed A. Oyinlola
- Changing Ocean Research Unit, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia Canada
| | | | | | - Vicky W. Y. Lam
- Changing Ocean Research Unit, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia Canada
| | - M. Aaron MacNeil
- Ocean Frontier Institute, Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia Canada
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia Canada
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Buenafe KCV, Dunn DC, Everett JD, Brito-Morales I, Schoeman DS, Hanson JO, Dabalà A, Neubert S, Cannicci S, Kaschner K, Richardson AJ. A metric-based framework for climate-smart conservation planning. ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS : A PUBLICATION OF THE ECOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA 2023; 33:e2852. [PMID: 36946332 DOI: 10.1002/eap.2852] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/15/2022] [Revised: 01/20/2023] [Accepted: 03/09/2023] [Indexed: 06/02/2023]
Abstract
Climate change is already having profound effects on biodiversity, but climate change adaptation has yet to be fully incorporated into area-based management tools used to conserve biodiversity, such as protected areas. One main obstacle is the lack of consensus regarding how impacts of climate change can be included in spatial conservation plans. We propose a climate-smart framework that prioritizes the protection of climate refugia-areas of low climate exposure and high biodiversity retention-using climate metrics. We explore four aspects of climate-smart conservation planning: (1) climate model ensembles; (2) multiple emission scenarios; (3) climate metrics; and (4) approaches to identifying climate refugia. We illustrate this framework in the Western Pacific Ocean, but it is equally applicable to terrestrial systems. We found that all aspects of climate-smart conservation planning considered affected the configuration of spatial plans. The choice of climate metrics and approaches to identifying refugia have large effects in the resulting climate-smart spatial plans, whereas the choice of climate models and emission scenarios have smaller effects. As the configuration of spatial plans depended on climate metrics used, a spatial plan based on a single measure of climate change (e.g., warming) will not necessarily be robust against other measures of climate change (e.g., ocean acidification). We therefore recommend using climate metrics most relevant for the biodiversity and region considered based on a single or multiple climate drivers. To include the uncertainty associated with different climate futures, we recommend using multiple climate models (i.e., an ensemble) and emission scenarios. Finally, we show that the approaches we used to identify climate refugia feature trade-offs between: (1) the degree to which they are climate-smart, and (2) their efficiency in meeting conservation targets. Hence, the choice of approach will depend on the relative value that stakeholders place on climate adaptation. By using this framework, protected areas can be designed with improved longevity and thus safeguard biodiversity against current and future climate change. We hope that the proposed climate-smart framework helps transition conservation planning toward climate-smart approaches.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kristine Camille V Buenafe
- School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
- School of Mathematics and Physics, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
- Department of Biology, University of Florence, Florence, Italy
- The Swire Institute of Marine Science and Area of Ecology and Biodiversity, School of Biological Sciences, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
| | - Daniel C Dunn
- School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
- Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science (CBCS), The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - Jason D Everett
- School of Mathematics and Physics, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) Environment, Queensland Biosciences Precinct (QBP), St Lucia, Queensland, Australia
- Centre for Marine Science and Innovation (CMSI), The University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Isaac Brito-Morales
- Betty and Gordon Moore Center for Science, Conservation International, Arlington, Virginia, USA
- Marine Science Institute, University of California Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, California, USA
| | - David S Schoeman
- Ocean Futures Research Cluster, School of Science, Technology and Engineering, University of the Sunshine Coast, Maroochydore, Queensland, Australia
- Centre for African Conservation Ecology, Department of Zoology, Nelson Mandela University, Gqeberha, South Africa
| | - Jeffrey O Hanson
- Department of Biology, Carleton University, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
| | - Alvise Dabalà
- School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
- School of Mathematics and Physics, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
- Systems Ecology and Resource Management, Department of Organism Biology, Faculté des Sciences, Université Libre de Bruxelles - ULB, Brussels, Belgium
- Ecology and Biodiversity, Laboratory of Plant Biology and Nature Management, Biology Department, Vrije Universiteit Brussel - VUB, Brussels, Belgium
| | - Sandra Neubert
- School of Mathematics and Physics, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
- Institute of Computer Science, Leipzig University, Leipzig, Germany
| | - Stefano Cannicci
- Department of Biology, University of Florence, Florence, Italy
- The Swire Institute of Marine Science and Area of Ecology and Biodiversity, School of Biological Sciences, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
| | - Kristin Kaschner
- Department of Biometry and Environmental Systems Analysis, Albert-Ludwigs-University of Freiburg, Freiburg im Breisgau, Germany
| | - Anthony J Richardson
- School of Mathematics and Physics, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) Environment, Queensland Biosciences Precinct (QBP), St Lucia, Queensland, Australia
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Quantifying fish range shifts across poorly defined management boundaries. PLoS One 2023; 18:e0279025. [PMID: 36630367 PMCID: PMC9833556 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0279025] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/19/2022] [Accepted: 11/28/2022] [Indexed: 01/12/2023] Open
Abstract
Management regimes of marine resources that rely on spatial boundaries might be poorly adapted to climate change shifts in species distributions. This is of specific concern for the management of fish stocks that cross management jurisdictions, known as shared stocks. Transitioning to dynamic rules in spatial management has been suggested as a solution for mismatches between species distributions and the spatial boundaries. However, in many cases spatial boundaries are not clearly drawn, hampering such transitions. Here, we use black sea bass (Centropristis striata), summer flounder (Paralichthys dentatus) and scup (Stenotomus chrysops) as case studies to explore different approaches to designing spatial regulatory units to facilitate the adaptation of fisheries management to shifting distributions of shared stocks. First, we determine the yearly distribution of each stock within the United States Exclusive Economic Zone from 1951 to 2019 during Fall and Spring sampling seasons. Second, we explore two approaches for drawing regulatory units based on state waters and historical landings. Finally, we estimate each state's proportion of the stock's distribution and compare historical and recent values. We show that the distribution of all three stocks has changed relative to the years used to determine the current quota allocation across states, with an overall gain for central-northern states at the expense of the southernmost states. In terms of the distribution of allocation, we find that, while seasonal differences exist, the biggest differences in the proportion of the stock spatial distribution attributed to each state come from the method for designing regulatory units. Here, we show that the method used to define allocation units can have meaningful impacts on resulting adaptive policy. As climate change-driven conflicts in fishing resource allocation are expected to increase and deepen around the world, we provide a replicable approach to make an informed and transparent choice to support data-driven decision-making.
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Scientific Mapping of Coastal Governance: Global Benchmarks and Trends. JOURNAL OF MARINE SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING 2022. [DOI: 10.3390/jmse10060751] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/05/2023]
Abstract
This research panoramically and empirically reviews the scientific production on coastal governance studies, mapping global networks of countries, organizations, authors, themes, and journals as referents for this topic. The articles were examined through a bibliometric/scientometric approach based on 2043 articles corpus stored in the Web of Science (JCR), applying the bibliometric laws of Price, Lotka, and Zipf to add further validity to the use of VOSviewer for data and metadata processing. The results highlight an uninterrupted exponential increase in publications since 1991, with a high concentration in 29 countries (21%), 461 organizations (18%), 99 authors (1.45%), and 4 growing journals (1%). The emerging topics observed in the literature are related to coastal sustainability and coastal management. Complementing previous studies on coastal zone management and marine territorial planning, we add coastal systems governance as a topic.
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Palacios‐Abrantes J, Frölicher TL, Reygondeau G, Sumaila U, Tagliabue A, Wabnitz C, Cheung W. Timing and magnitude of climate-driven range shifts in transboundary fish stocks challenge their management. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2022; 28:2312-2326. [PMID: 35040239 PMCID: PMC9302671 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16058] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/24/2021] [Revised: 12/03/2021] [Accepted: 12/07/2021] [Indexed: 05/26/2023]
Abstract
Climate change is shifting the distribution of shared fish stocks between neighboring countries' Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) and the high seas. The timescale of these transboundary shifts determines how climate change will affect international fisheries governance. Here, we explore this timescale by coupling a large ensemble simulation of an Earth system model under a high emission climate change scenario to a dynamic population model. We show that by 2030, 23% of transboundary stocks will have shifted and 78% of the world's EEZs will have experienced at least one shifting stock. By the end of this century, projections show a total of 45% of stocks shifting globally and 81% of EEZs waters with at least one shifting stock. The magnitude of such shifts is reflected in changes in catch proportion between EEZs sharing a transboundary stock. By 2030, global EEZs are projected to experience an average change of 59% in catch proportion of transboundary stocks. Many countries that are highly dependent on fisheries for livelihood and food security emerge as hotspots for transboundary shifts. These hotspots are characterized by early shifts in the distribution of an important number of transboundary stocks. Existing international fisheries agreements need to be assessed for their capacity to address the social-ecological implications of climate-change-driven transboundary shifts. Some of these agreements will need to be adjusted to limit potential conflict between the parties of interest. Meanwhile, new agreements will need to be anticipatory and consider these concerns and their associated uncertainties to be resilient to global change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Juliano Palacios‐Abrantes
- Institute for the Oceans and FisheriesThe University of British ColumbiaVancouverBritish ColumbiaCanada
- Center for LimnologyUniversity of WisconsinMadisonWisconsinUSA
| | - Thomas L. Frölicher
- Climate and Environmental PhysicsPhysics InstituteUniversity of BernBernSwitzerland
- Oeschger Centre for Climate Change ResearchUniversity of BernBernSwitzerland
| | - Gabriel Reygondeau
- Institute for the Oceans and FisheriesThe University of British ColumbiaVancouverBritish ColumbiaCanada
| | - U. Rashid Sumaila
- Institute for the Oceans and FisheriesThe University of British ColumbiaVancouverBritish ColumbiaCanada
- School of Public Policy and Global AffairsThe University of British ColumbiaVancouverBritish ColumbiaCanada
| | | | - Colette C. C. Wabnitz
- Institute for the Oceans and FisheriesThe University of British ColumbiaVancouverBritish ColumbiaCanada
- Stanford Center for Ocean SolutionsStanford UniversityStanfordCaliforniaUSA
| | - William W. L. Cheung
- Institute for the Oceans and FisheriesThe University of British ColumbiaVancouverBritish ColumbiaCanada
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Carroll KA. Systematic prioritization protocol applied to wolverine habitat connectivity. STAR Protoc 2021; 2:100882. [PMID: 34806043 PMCID: PMC8585657 DOI: 10.1016/j.xpro.2021.100882] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
I describe a prioritization protocol for future wolverine habitat connectivity conservation using integer linear programming. Conservation prioritization has broad applications across scales, systems, and species. However, the process of preparing, generating, and analyzing the necessary data can be complex. Thus, this protocol details the process from data acquisition to implementation. For complete details on the use and execution of this protocol, please refer to Carroll et al. (2020) and Carroll et al. (2021).
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Affiliation(s)
- Kathleen Anne Carroll
- Montana State University, Ecology Department, Montana State University, P.O. Box 173460, Bozeman, MT 59717, USA
- Corresponding author
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