1
|
Liu F, Song F, Luo Y. Human-induced intensified seasonal cycle of sea surface temperature. Nat Commun 2024; 15:3948. [PMID: 38729963 PMCID: PMC11087490 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-48381-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/14/2023] [Accepted: 04/30/2024] [Indexed: 05/12/2024] Open
Abstract
Changes in the seasonal cycle of sea surface temperature (SST) have far-reaching ecological and societal implications. Previous studies have found an intensified SST seasonal cycle under global warming, but whether such changes have emerged in historical records remains largely unknown. Here, we reveal that the SST seasonal cycle globally has intensified by 3.9 ± 1.6% in recent four decades (1983-2022), with hotspot regions such as the northern subpolar gyres experiencing an intensification of up to 10%. Increased greenhouse gases are the primary driver of this intensification, and decreased anthropogenic aerosols also contribute. These changes in anthropogenic emissions lead to shallower mixed layer depths, reducing the thermal inertia of upper ocean and enhancing the seasonality of SST. In addition, the direct impacts of increased ocean heat uptake and suppressed seasonal amplitude of surface heat flux also contribute in the North Pacific and North Atlantic. The temperature seasonal cycle is intensified not only at the ocean surface, but throughout the mixed layer. The ramifications of this intensified SST seasonal cycle extend to the seasonal variation in upper-ocean oxygenation, a critical factor for most ocean ecosystems.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Fukai Liu
- Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System and Physical Oceanography Laboratory, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China.
| | - Fengfei Song
- Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System and Physical Oceanography Laboratory, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China.
- Laoshan Laboratory, Qingdao, China.
| | - Yiyong Luo
- Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System and Physical Oceanography Laboratory, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China.
| |
Collapse
|
2
|
Li D, Wang L, Liao W, Sun T, Katul G, Bou-Zeid E, Maronga B. Persistent urban heat. SCIENCE ADVANCES 2024; 10:eadj7398. [PMID: 38598635 PMCID: PMC11006209 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.adj7398] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/13/2023] [Accepted: 03/07/2024] [Indexed: 04/12/2024]
Abstract
Urban surface and near-surface air temperatures are known to be often higher than their rural counterparts, a phenomenon now labeled as the urban heat island effect. However, whether the elevated urban temperatures are more persistent than rural temperatures at timescales commensurate to heat waves has not been addressed despite its importance for human health. Combining numerical simulations by a global climate model with a surface energy balance theory, it is demonstrated here that urban surface and near-surface air temperatures are significantly more persistent than their rural counterparts in cities dominated by impervious materials with large thermal inertia. Further use of these materials will result in even stronger urban temperature persistence, especially for tropical cities. The present findings help pinpoint mitigation strategies that can simultaneously ameliorate the larger magnitude and stronger persistence of urban temperatures.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Dan Li
- Department of Earth and Environment, Boston University, Boston, MA, USA
- Department of Mechanical Engineering, Boston University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Linying Wang
- Department of Earth and Environment, Boston University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Weilin Liao
- Guangdong Key Laboratory for Urbanization and Geo-simulation, School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Ting Sun
- Institute for Risk and Disaster Reduction, University College London, London, UK
| | - Gabriel Katul
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA
| | - Elie Bou-Zeid
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA
| | - Björn Maronga
- Institute of Meteorology and Climatology, Leibniz University Hannover, Hannover, Germany
- Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
| |
Collapse
|
3
|
Ben-Yami M, Skiba V, Bathiany S, Boers N. Uncertainties in critical slowing down indicators of observation-based fingerprints of the Atlantic Overturning Circulation. Nat Commun 2023; 14:8344. [PMID: 38102135 PMCID: PMC10724135 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-44046-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/14/2023] [Accepted: 11/28/2023] [Indexed: 12/17/2023] Open
Abstract
Observations are increasingly used to detect critical slowing down (CSD) to measure stability changes in key Earth system components. However, most datasets have non-stationary missing-data distributions, biases and uncertainties. Here we show that, together with the pre-processing steps used to deal with them, these can bias the CSD analysis. We present an uncertainty quantification method to address such issues. We show how to propagate uncertainties provided with the datasets to the CSD analysis and develop conservative, surrogate-based significance tests on the CSD indicators. We apply our method to three observational sea-surface temperature and salinity datasets and to fingerprints of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation derived from them. We find that the properties of these datasets and especially the specific gap filling procedures can in some cases indeed cause false indication of CSD. However, CSD indicators in the North Atlantic are still present and significant when accounting for dataset uncertainties and non-stationary observational coverage.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Maya Ben-Yami
- Earth System Modelling, School of Engineering and Design, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany.
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany.
| | - Vanessa Skiba
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Sebastian Bathiany
- Earth System Modelling, School of Engineering and Design, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Niklas Boers
- Earth System Modelling, School of Engineering and Design, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
- Department of Mathematics and Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
| |
Collapse
|
4
|
Sung MK, An SI, Shin J, Park JH, Yang YM, Kim HJ, Chang M. Ocean fronts as decadal thermostats modulating continental warming hiatus. Nat Commun 2023; 14:7777. [PMID: 38012176 PMCID: PMC10682185 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-43686-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/27/2023] [Accepted: 11/16/2023] [Indexed: 11/29/2023] Open
Abstract
Over the past decade, an unexpected cooling trend has been observed in East Asia and North America during winter. Climate model simulations suggest that this pattern of stalled warming, besides accelerated warming, will repeat throughout the course of global warming, influenced by the natural decade-long variations in the climate system. However, understanding the exact factors affecting the pace of warming remains a challenge. Here we show that a pause in warming over continental areas-namely, local warming hiatus-can be accompanied by excessive heat accumulation north of the ocean fronts. This oceanic condition, often manifesting in the form of marine heatwaves, constrains the subseasonal growth of atmospheric planetary waves, significantly increasing the likelihood of cold extremes in downstream continents. Our results underscore the importance of closely monitoring changing ocean fronts in response to human-induced warming, which can potentially reshape the inherent decade-long fluctuations within regional climates over the long term.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Mi-Kyung Sung
- Climate and Environmental Research Institute, Korea Institute of Science and Technology, Seoul, Republic of Korea.
| | - Soon-Il An
- Department of Atmospheric Sciences/Irreversible Climate Change Research Center, Yonsei University, Seoul, Republic of Korea.
- Division of Environmental Science and Engineering, Pohang University of Science and Technology, Pohang, Republic of Korea.
| | - Jongsoo Shin
- Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA, USA
| | - Jae-Heung Park
- School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Young-Min Yang
- Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education (KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change (ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD), Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China
| | - Hyo-Jeong Kim
- Low-Carbon and Climate Impact Research Centre, School of Energy and Environment, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China
| | - Minhee Chang
- Climate and Environmental Research Institute, Korea Institute of Science and Technology, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| |
Collapse
|
5
|
Le PVV, Randerson JT, Willett R, Wright S, Smyth P, Guilloteau C, Mamalakis A, Foufoula-Georgiou E. Climate-driven changes in the predictability of seasonal precipitation. Nat Commun 2023; 14:3822. [PMID: 37380668 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-39463-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/18/2022] [Accepted: 06/14/2023] [Indexed: 06/30/2023] Open
Abstract
Climate-driven changes in precipitation amounts and their seasonal variability are expected in many continental-scale regions during the remainder of the 21st century. However, much less is known about future changes in the predictability of seasonal precipitation, an important earth system property relevant for climate adaptation. Here, on the basis of CMIP6 models that capture the present-day teleconnections between seasonal precipitation and previous-season sea surface temperature (SST), we show that climate change is expected to alter the SST-precipitation relationships and thus our ability to predict seasonal precipitation by 2100. Specifically, in the tropics, seasonal precipitation predictability from SSTs is projected to increase throughout the year, except the northern Amazonia during boreal winter. Concurrently, in the extra-tropics predictability is likely to increase in central Asia during boreal spring and winter. The altered predictability, together with enhanced interannual variability of seasonal precipitation, poses new opportunities and challenges for regional water management.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Phong V V Le
- Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, USA.
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Irvine, CA, USA.
- Faculty of Hydrology Meteorology and Oceanography, University of Science, Vietnam National University, Hanoi, Vietnam.
| | - James T Randerson
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Irvine, CA, USA
- Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, CA, USA
| | - Rebecca Willett
- Department of Statistics, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA
- Department of Computer Science, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA
| | - Stephen Wright
- Computer Science Department, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, USA
| | - Padhraic Smyth
- Department of Computer Science, University of California, Irvine, CA, USA
- Department of Statistics, University of California, Irvine, CA, USA
| | - Clément Guilloteau
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Irvine, CA, USA
| | - Antonios Mamalakis
- Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA
| | - Efi Foufoula-Georgiou
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Irvine, CA, USA.
- Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, CA, USA.
| |
Collapse
|
6
|
Jiang K, Pan Z, Pan F, Teuling AJ, Han G, An P, Chen X, Wang J, Song Y, Cheng L, Zhang Z, Huang N, Ma S, Gao R, Zhang Z, Men J, Lv X, Dong Z. Combined influence of soil moisture and atmospheric humidity on land surface temperature under different climatic background. iScience 2023; 26:106837. [PMID: 37250783 PMCID: PMC10209534 DOI: 10.1016/j.isci.2023.106837] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/14/2022] [Revised: 03/01/2023] [Accepted: 05/04/2023] [Indexed: 05/31/2023] Open
Abstract
Soil moisture (SM) and atmospheric humidity (AH) are crucial climatic variables that significantly affect the climate system. However, the combined influencing mechanisms of SM and AH on the land surface temperature (LST) under global warming are still unclear. Here, we systematically analyzed the interrelationships among annual mean values of SM, AH, and LST using ERA5-Land reanalysis data and revealed the role of SM and AH on the spatiotemporal variations of LST through mechanism analysis and regression methods. The results showed that net radiation, SM, and AH could well model the long-term variability of LST well and explain 92% of the variability. Moreover, SM played an essential and different role under the different LST backgrounds. The AH always displayed a greenhouse effect on the LST. This study provides essential insights into the global climate change mechanism from the surface hydrothermal processes perspective.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Kang Jiang
- College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing, China
- CMA-CAU Jointly Laboratory of Agriculture Addressing Climate Change, Beijing, China
| | - Zhihua Pan
- College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing, China
- CMA-CAU Jointly Laboratory of Agriculture Addressing Climate Change, Beijing, China
| | - Feifei Pan
- Department of Geography and the Environment, University of North Texas, Denton, TX, USA
| | - Adriaan J. Teuling
- Hydrology and Quantitative Water Management Group, Wageningen University & Research, Wageningen, Netherlands
| | - Guolin Han
- China Meteorological Administration Training Center, Beijing, China
| | - Pingli An
- College of Land Science and Technology, China Agricultural University, Beijing, China
- Key Laboratory of Land Quality, Ministry of Land and Resources, Beijing, China
| | - Xiao Chen
- College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing, China
- CMA-CAU Jointly Laboratory of Agriculture Addressing Climate Change, Beijing, China
| | - Jialin Wang
- College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing, China
- College of Land Science and Technology, China Agricultural University, Beijing, China
| | - Yu Song
- College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing, China
- CMA-CAU Jointly Laboratory of Agriculture Addressing Climate Change, Beijing, China
| | - Lu Cheng
- National Meteorological Center, Beijing, China
| | - Ziyuan Zhang
- College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing, China
- CMA-CAU Jointly Laboratory of Agriculture Addressing Climate Change, Beijing, China
| | - Na Huang
- College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing, China
- CMA-CAU Jointly Laboratory of Agriculture Addressing Climate Change, Beijing, China
| | - Shangqian Ma
- College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing, China
- CMA-CAU Jointly Laboratory of Agriculture Addressing Climate Change, Beijing, China
| | - Riping Gao
- College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing, China
- CMA-CAU Jointly Laboratory of Agriculture Addressing Climate Change, Beijing, China
| | - Zhenzhen Zhang
- College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing, China
- CMA-CAU Jointly Laboratory of Agriculture Addressing Climate Change, Beijing, China
| | - Jingyu Men
- College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing, China
- CMA-CAU Jointly Laboratory of Agriculture Addressing Climate Change, Beijing, China
| | - Xiaoqin Lv
- College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing, China
- CMA-CAU Jointly Laboratory of Agriculture Addressing Climate Change, Beijing, China
| | | |
Collapse
|
7
|
The ocean is losing its memory. Nature 2022. [PMID: 35523876 DOI: 10.1038/d41586-022-01246-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/08/2022]
|