Very-long-period seismic signals and caldera formation at Miyake Island, Japan

Repeating caldera collapse events constrain fault friction at the kilometer scale

Fault friction is central to understanding earthquakes, yet laboratory rock mechanics experiments are restricted to, at most, meter scale. Questions thus remain as to the applicability of measured frictional properties to faulting in situ. In particular, the slip-weakening distance [Formula: see text] strongly influences precursory slip during earthquake nucleation, but scales with fault roughness and is challenging to extrapolate to nature. The 2018 eruption of K̄ılauea volcano, Hawaii, caused 62 repeatable collapse events in which the summit caldera dropped several meters, accompanied by [Formula: see text] 4.7 to 5.4 very long period (VLP) earthquakes. Collapses were exceptionally well recorded by global positioning system (GPS) and tilt instruments and represent unique natural kilometer-scale friction experiments. We model a piston collapsing into a magma reservoir. Pressure at the piston base and shear stress on its margin, governed by rate and state friction, balance its weight. Downward motion of the piston compresses the underlying magma, driving flow to the eruption. Monte Carlo estimation of unknowns validates laboratory friction parameters at the kilometer scale, including the magnitude of steady-state velocity weakening. The absence of accelerating precollapse deformation constrains [Formula: see text] to be [Formula: see text] mm, potentially much less. These results support the use of laboratory friction laws and parameters for modeling earthquakes. We identify initial conditions and material and magma-system parameters that lead to episodic caldera collapse, revealing that small differences in eruptive vent elevation can lead to major differences in eruption volume and duration. Most historical basaltic caldera collapses were, at least partly, episodic, implying that the conditions for stick-slip derived here are commonly met in nature.

Dynamics of large effusive eruptions driven by caldera collapse

The largest effusive basaltic eruptions are associated with caldera collapse and are manifest through quasi-periodic ground displacements and moderate-size earthquakes^1-3, but the mechanism that governs their dynamics remains unclear. Here we provide a physical model that explains these processes, which accounts for both the quasi-periodic stick-slip collapse of the caldera roof and the long-term eruptive behaviour of the volcano. We show that it is the caldera collapse itself that sustains large effusive eruptions, and that triggering caldera collapse requires topography-generated pressures. The model is consistent with data from the 2018 Kīlauea eruption and allows us to estimate the properties of the plumbing system of the volcano. The results reveal that two reservoirs were active during the eruption, and place constraints on their connectivity. According to the model, the Kīlauea eruption stopped after slightly more than 60 per cent of its potential caldera collapse events, possibly owing to the presence of the second reservoir. Finally, we show that this physical framework is generally applicable to the largest instrumented caldera collapse eruptions of the past fifty years.

Magma reservoir failure and the onset of caldera collapse at Kīlauea Volcano in 2018

Caldera-forming eruptions are among Earth’s most hazardous natural phenomena, yet the architecture of subcaldera magma reservoirs and the conditions that trigger collapse are poorly understood. Observations from the formation of a 0.8–cubic kilometer basaltic caldera at Kīlauea Volcano in 2018 included the draining of an active lava lake, which provided a window into pressure decrease in the reservoir. We show that failure began after <4% of magma was withdrawn from a shallow reservoir beneath the volcano’s summit, reducing its internal pressure by ~17 megapascals. Several cubic kilometers of magma were stored in the reservoir, and only a fraction was withdrawn before the end of the eruption. Thus, caldera formation may begin after withdrawal of only small amounts of magma and may end before source reservoirs are completely evacuated.

Very- and ultra-long-period seismic signals prior to and during caldera formation on La Réunion Island

Early detection of the onset of a caldera collapse can provide crucial information to understand their formation and thus to minimize risks for the nearby population and visitors. Here, we analyse the 2007 caldera collapse of Piton de la Fournaise on La Réunion Island recorded by a broadband seismic station. We show that this instrument recorded ultra-long period (ULP) signals with frequencies in the range (0.003-0.01 Hz) accompanied by very-long period (VLP) signals (between 0.02 and 0.50 Hz) prior to and during the caldera formation suggesting it is possible to detect the beginning of the collapse at depth and anticipate its surface formation. Interestingly, VLP wave packets with a similar duration of 20 s are identified prior to and during the caldera formation. We propose that these events could result from repeating piston-like successive collapses occurring through a ring-fault structure surrounding a magma reservoir from the following arguments: the source mechanism from the main collapse, the observations of slow source processes as well as observations from the field and the characteristic ring-fault seismicity.

The 2018 rift eruption and summit collapse of Kīlauea Volcano

In 2018, Kīlauea Volcano experienced its largest lower East Rift Zone (LERZ) eruption and caldera collapse in at least 200 years. After collapse of the Pu'u 'Ō'ō vent on 30 April, magma propagated downrift. Eruptive fissures opened in the LERZ on 3 May, eventually extending ~6.8 kilometers. A 4 May earthquake [moment magnitude (M _w) 6.9] produced ~5 meters of fault slip. Lava erupted at rates exceeding 100 cubic meters per second, eventually covering 35.5 square kilometers. The summit magma system partially drained, producing minor explosions and near-daily collapses releasing energy equivalent to M _w 4.7 to 5.4 earthquakes. Activity declined rapidly on 4 August. Summit collapse and lava flow volume estimates are roughly equivalent-about 0.8 cubic kilometers. Careful historical observation and monitoring of Kīlauea enabled successful forecasting of hazardous events.

Gradual caldera collapse at Bárdarbunga volcano, Iceland, regulated by lateral magma outflow

Large volcanic eruptions on Earth commonly occur with a collapse of the roof of a crustal magma reservoir, forming a caldera. Only a few such collapses occur per century, and the lack of detailed observations has obscured insight into the mechanical interplay between collapse and eruption. We use multiparameter geophysical and geochemical data to show that the 110-square-kilometer and 65-meter-deep collapse of Bárdarbunga caldera in 2014-2015 was initiated through withdrawal of magma, and lateral migration through a 48-kilometers-long dike, from a 12-kilometers deep reservoir. Interaction between the pressure exerted by the subsiding reservoir roof and the physical properties of the subsurface flow path explain the gradual, near-exponential decline of both collapse rate and the intensity of the 180-day-long eruption.

Magmatic dike resonances inferred from very-long-period seismic signals

Very-long-period (VLP) signals showing simple decaying harmonic oscillations with periods near 10 seconds and lasting for about 300 seconds were observed in association with an earthquake swarm that occurred beneath Hachijo Island, Japan. Results from the source-mechanism analysis and waveform simulation based on a fluid-filled crack model consistently point to the resonance of a dike filled with a basaltic magma as the source of the VLP signals. Thus, VLP signals can be used to probe the state of the fluid and dynamic processes within a volcanic system.