1
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Lionello P, D'Agostino R, Ferreira D, Nguyen H, Singh MS. The Hadley circulation in a changing climate. Ann N Y Acad Sci 2024; 1534:69-93. [PMID: 38532631 DOI: 10.1111/nyas.15114] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 03/28/2024]
Abstract
The Hadley circulation (HC) is a global-scale atmospheric feature with air descending in the subtropics and ascending in the tropics, which plays a fundamental role in Earth's climate because it transports energy polewards and moisture equatorwards. Theoretically, as a consequence of anthropogenic climate change, the HC is expected to expand polewards, while indications on the HC strength are equivocal, as weakening and strengthening are expected in response to different mechanisms. In fact, there is a general agreement among reanalyses and climate simulations that the HC has significantly widened in the last four decades and it will continue widening in the future, but there is no consensus on past and future changes of the HC strength. Substantial uncertainties are produced by the effects of natural variability, structural deficiencies in climate models and reanalyses, and the influence of other forcing factors, such as anthropogenic aerosols, black carbon, and stratospheric and tropospheric ozone. The global HC can be decomposed into three regional HCs, associated with ascending motion above Equatorial Africa, the Maritime Continent, and Equatorial America, which have evolved differently during the last decades. Climate projections suggest a generalized expansion in the Southern Hemisphere, but a complex regional expansion/contraction pattern in the Northern Hemisphere.
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Affiliation(s)
- Piero Lionello
- DiSTeBA - Dipartimento di Scienze e Tecnologie Biologiche e Ambientali, University of Salento, Lecce, Italy
| | - Roberta D'Agostino
- Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, Hamburg, Germany
- National Research Council, Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Lecce, Italy
| | - David Ferreira
- Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK
| | - Hanh Nguyen
- Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Martin S Singh
- School of Earth, Atmosphere, and Environment, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
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2
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Cai W, Gao L, Luo Y, Li X, Zheng X, Zhang X, Cheng X, Jia F, Purich A, Santoso A, Du Y, Holland DM, Shi JR, Xiang B, Xie SP. Southern ocean warming and its climatic impacts. Sci Bull (Beijing) 2023; 68:946-960. [PMID: 37085399 DOI: 10.1016/j.scib.2023.03.049] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/12/2022] [Revised: 03/12/2023] [Accepted: 03/13/2023] [Indexed: 04/05/2023]
Abstract
The Southern Ocean has warmed substantially, and up to early 21st century, Antarctic stratospheric ozone depletion and increasing atmospheric CO2 have conspired to intensify Southern Ocean warming. Despite a projected ozone recovery, fluxes to the Southern Ocean of radiative heat and freshwater from enhanced precipitation and melting sea ice, ice shelves, and ice sheets are expected to increase, as is a Southern Ocean westerly poleward intensification. The warming has far-reaching climatic implications for melt of Antarctic ice shelf and ice sheet, sea level rise, and remote circulations such as the intertropical convergence zone and tropical ocean-atmosphere circulations, which affect extreme weathers, agriculture, and ecosystems. The surface warm and freshwater anomalies are advected northward by the mean circulation and deposited into the ocean interior with a zonal-mean maximum at ∼45°S. The increased momentum and buoyancy fluxes enhance the Southern Ocean circulation and water mass transformation, further increasing the heat uptake. Complex processes that operate but poorly understood include interactive ice shelves and ice sheets, oceanic eddies, tropical-polar interactions, and impact of the Southern Ocean response on the climate change forcing itself; in particular, limited observations and low resolution of climate models hinder rapid progress. Thus, projection of Southern Ocean warming will likely remain uncertain, but recent community effort has laid a solid foundation for substantial progress.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wenju Cai
- Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System and Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China; Laboratory for Ocean and Climate Dynamics, Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao 266237, China; Center for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart 7004, Australia.
| | - Libao Gao
- First Institute of Oceanography and Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling, Ministry of Natural Resources, Qingdao 266061, China; Laboratory for Regional Oceanography and Numerical Modeling, Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao 266237, China
| | - Yiyong Luo
- Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System and Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China; Laboratory for Ocean and Climate Dynamics, Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao 266237, China
| | - Xichen Li
- Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
| | - Xiaotong Zheng
- Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System and Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China; Laboratory for Ocean and Climate Dynamics, Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao 266237, China
| | - Xuebin Zhang
- Center for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart 7004, Australia
| | - Xuhua Cheng
- College of Oceanography, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
| | - Fan Jia
- Key Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Waves, Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao 266071, China
| | - Ariaan Purich
- Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney 2052, Australia; Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, University of New South Wales, Sydney 2052, Australia
| | - Agus Santoso
- Center for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart 7004, Australia; Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, University of New South Wales, Sydney 2052, Australia
| | - Yan Du
- State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography, South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou 510301, China; Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory, Guangzhou 511458, China
| | - David M Holland
- Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences, New York University, New York NY 10012, USA
| | - Jia-Rui Shi
- Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole MA 02543, USA
| | - Baoqiang Xiang
- NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton NJ 08540, USA; University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder CO 80307, USA
| | - Shang-Ping Xie
- Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, La Jolla CA 92093, USA
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3
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Relative Effects of the Greenhouse Gases and Stratospheric Ozone Increases on Temperature and Circulation in the Stratosphere over the Arctic. REMOTE SENSING 2022. [DOI: 10.3390/rs14143447] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/10/2022]
Abstract
Using a stratosphere-resolving general circulation model, the relative effects of stratospheric ozone and greenhouse gases (GHGs) increase on the temperature and circulation in the Arctic stratosphere are examined. Results show that stratospheric ozone or GHGs increase alone could result in a cooling and strengthening extratropical stratosphere during February, March and April. However, the contribution of stratospheric ozone increases alone on the cooling and strengthening Arctic stratosphere is approximately 2 fold that of the GHGs increase alone. Model simulations suggested that the larger responses of the Arctic stratosphere to the ozone increase alone are closely related to the wave fluxes in the stratosphere, rather than the wave activity in the stratosphere. In response to the ozone increase, the vertical propagation of planetary waves from the troposphere into the mid-latitude stratosphere weakens, mainly contributed by its wavenumber-1 component. The impeded planetary waves tend to result from the larger zonal wind shear and vertical gradient of the buoyancy frequency. The magnitudes of anomalies in the zonal wind shear and buoyancy frequency in response to GHGs increase alone are smaller than in response to the ozone increase, which is in accordance with the larger contribution of stratospheric ozone to the temperature and circulation in the Arctic stratosphere.
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4
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Responses of Arctic sea ice to stratospheric ozone depletion. Sci Bull (Beijing) 2022; 67:1182-1190. [PMID: 36545984 DOI: 10.1016/j.scib.2022.03.015] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/12/2021] [Revised: 02/24/2022] [Accepted: 02/25/2022] [Indexed: 01/07/2023]
Abstract
The Arctic has experienced several extreme springtime stratospheric ozone depletion events over the past four decades, particularly in 1997, 2011 and 2020. However, the impact of this stratospheric ozone depletion on the climate system remains poorly understood. Here we show that the stratospheric ozone depletion causes significant reductions in the sea ice concentration (SIC) and the sea ice thickness (SIT) over the Kara Sea, Laptev Sea and East Siberian Sea from spring to summer. This is partially caused by enhanced ice transport from Barents-Kara Sea and East Siberian Sea to the Fram Strait, which is induced by a strengthened and longer lived polar vortex associated with stratospheric ozone depletion. Additionally, cloud longwave radiation and surface albedo feedbacks enhance the melting of Arctic sea ice, particularly along the coast of the Eurasian continent. This study highlights the need for realistic representation of stratosphere-troposphere interactions in order to accurately predict Arctic sea ice loss.
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5
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Garcia RR. On the response of the middle atmosphere to anthropogenic forcing. Ann N Y Acad Sci 2021; 1504:25-43. [PMID: 34263936 DOI: 10.1111/nyas.14664] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/30/2020] [Revised: 06/21/2021] [Accepted: 06/23/2021] [Indexed: 11/26/2022]
Abstract
Anthropogenic forcing of the atmosphere by greenhouse gases (GHG) and ozone-depleting substances has provided an unintended test of the robustness of current understanding of the physics and chemistry of the middle atmosphere, that is, the stratosphere and mesosphere. We explore this topic by examining how well anthropogenic changes can be simulated by modern, comprehensive numerical models. Specifically, we discuss the simulations of trends in global mean temperature; the development of the ozone hole and its impact on the dynamics of the Southern Hemisphere, both in the stratosphere and troposphere; trends in the stratospheric Brewer-Dobson circulation; and the response of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) to increasing burdens of CO2 . We find that, in most of these cases, numerical simulation is able to reproduce observed changes and provide physical insights into the relevant mechanisms. Simulation of the QBO is on a less firm footing. Although many numerical models can now generate realistic QBOs, future projections of its behavior under the increasing burdens of GHG are inconsistent and even contradictory.
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6
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Banerjee A, Fyfe JC, Polvani LM, Waugh D, Chang KL. A pause in Southern Hemisphere circulation trends due to the Montreal Protocol. Nature 2020; 579:544-548. [PMID: 32214266 DOI: 10.1038/s41586-020-2120-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/04/2019] [Accepted: 01/29/2020] [Indexed: 11/08/2022]
Abstract
Observations show robust near-surface trends in Southern Hemisphere tropospheric circulation towards the end of the twentieth century, including a poleward shift in the mid-latitude jet1,2, a positive trend in the Southern Annular Mode1,3-6 and an expansion of the Hadley cell7,8. It has been established that these trends were driven by ozone depletion in the Antarctic stratosphere due to emissions of ozone-depleting substances9-11. Here we show that these widely reported circulation trends paused, or slightly reversed, around the year 2000. Using a pattern-based detection and attribution analysis of atmospheric zonal wind, we show that the pause in circulation trends is forced by human activities, and has not occurred owing only to internal or natural variability of the climate system. Furthermore, we demonstrate that stratospheric ozone recovery, resulting from the Montreal Protocol, is the key driver of the pause. Because pre-2000 circulation trends have affected precipitation12-14, and potentially ocean circulation and salinity15-17, we anticipate that a pause in these trends will have wider impacts on the Earth system. Signatures of the effects of the Montreal Protocol and the associated stratospheric ozone recovery might therefore manifest, or have already manifested, in other aspects of the Earth system.
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Affiliation(s)
- Antara Banerjee
- Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA.
- Chemical Sciences Division, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO, USA.
| | - John C Fyfe
- Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Lorenzo M Polvani
- Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA
| | - Darryn Waugh
- Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA
- School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Kai-Lan Chang
- Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
- Chemical Sciences Division, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO, USA
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7
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Improved Global Surface Temperature Simulation using Stratospheric Ozone Forcing with More Accurate Variability. Sci Rep 2018; 8:14474. [PMID: 30262911 PMCID: PMC6160484 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-018-32656-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/15/2018] [Accepted: 09/12/2018] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Increasingly, studies have pointed out that variations of stratospheric ozone significantly influence climate change in the Northern and Southern hemispheres. This leads us to consider whether making the variations of stratospheric ozone in a climate model closer to real ozone changes would improve the simulation of global climate change. It is found that replacing the original specified stratospheric ozone forcing with more accurate stratospheric ozone variations improves the simulated variations of surface temperature in a climate model. The improved stratospheric ozone variations in the Northern Hemisphere lead to better simulation of variations in Northern Hemisphere circulation. As a result, the simulated variabilities of surface temperature in the middle of the Eurasian continent and in lower latitudes are improved. In the Southern Hemisphere, improvements in surface temperature variations that result from improved stratospheric ozone variations influence the simulation of westerly winds. The simulations also suggest that the decreasing trend of stratospheric ozone may have enhanced the warming trend at high latitudes in the second half of the 20th century. Our results not only reinforce the importance of accurately simulating the stratospheric ozone but also imply the need for including fully coupled stratospheric dynamical–radiative–chemical processes in climate models to predict future climate changes.
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8
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Stratospheric ozone loss over the Eurasian continent induced by the polar vortex shift. Nat Commun 2018; 9:206. [PMID: 29335470 PMCID: PMC5768802 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-017-02565-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 49] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/25/2017] [Accepted: 12/08/2017] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
The Montreal Protocol has succeeded in limiting major ozone-depleting substance emissions, and consequently stratospheric ozone concentrations are expected to recover this century. However, there is a large uncertainty in the rate of regional ozone recovery in the Northern Hemisphere. Here we identify a Eurasia-North America dipole mode in the total column ozone over the Northern Hemisphere, showing negative and positive total column ozone anomaly centres over Eurasia and North America, respectively. The positive trend of this mode explains an enhanced total column ozone decline over the Eurasian continent in the past three decades, which is closely related to the polar vortex shift towards Eurasia. Multiple chemistry-climate-model simulations indicate that the positive Eurasia-North America dipole trend in late winter is likely to continue in the near future. Our findings suggest that the anticipated ozone recovery in late winter will be sensitive not only to the ozone-depleting substance decline but also to the polar vortex changes, and could be substantially delayed in some regions of the Northern Hemisphere extratropics. Climate change can exert a significant effect on the ozone recovery. Here, the authors show that the Arctic polar vortex shift associated with Arctic sea-ice loss could slow down ozone recovery over the Eurasian continent.
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9
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Synchronous volcanic eruptions and abrupt climate change ∼17.7 ka plausibly linked by stratospheric ozone depletion. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2017; 114:10035-10040. [PMID: 28874529 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1705595114] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Glacial-state greenhouse gas concentrations and Southern Hemisphere climate conditions persisted until ∼17.7 ka, when a nearly synchronous acceleration in deglaciation was recorded in paleoclimate proxies in large parts of the Southern Hemisphere, with many changes ascribed to a sudden poleward shift in the Southern Hemisphere westerlies and subsequent climate impacts. We used high-resolution chemical measurements in the West Antarctic Ice Sheet Divide, Byrd, and other ice cores to document a unique, ∼192-y series of halogen-rich volcanic eruptions exactly at the start of accelerated deglaciation, with tephra identifying the nearby Mount Takahe volcano as the source. Extensive fallout from these massive eruptions has been found >2,800 km from Mount Takahe. Sulfur isotope anomalies and marked decreases in ice core bromine consistent with increased surface UV radiation indicate that the eruptions led to stratospheric ozone depletion. Rather than a highly improbable coincidence, circulation and climate changes extending from the Antarctic Peninsula to the subtropics-similar to those associated with modern stratospheric ozone depletion over Antarctica-plausibly link the Mount Takahe eruptions to the onset of accelerated Southern Hemisphere deglaciation ∼17.7 ka.
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10
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Nowack PJ, Braesicke P, Luke Abraham N, Pyle JA. On the role of ozone feedback in the ENSO amplitude response under global warming. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 2017; 44:3858-3866. [PMID: 28781392 PMCID: PMC5518766 DOI: 10.1002/2016gl072418] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/21/2016] [Revised: 03/27/2017] [Accepted: 03/31/2017] [Indexed: 05/13/2023]
Abstract
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropical Pacific Ocean is of key importance to global climate and weather. However, state-of-the-art climate models still disagree on the ENSO's response under climate change. The potential role of atmospheric ozone changes in this context has not been explored before. Here we show that differences between typical model representations of ozone can have a first-order impact on ENSO amplitude projections in climate sensitivity simulations. The vertical temperature gradient of the tropical middle-to-upper troposphere adjusts to ozone changes in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, modifying the Walker circulation and consequently tropical Pacific surface temperature gradients. We show that neglecting ozone changes thus results in a significant increase in the number of extreme ENSO events in our model. Climate modeling studies of the ENSO often neglect changes in ozone. We therefore highlight the need to understand better the coupling between ozone, the tropospheric circulation, and climate variability.
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Affiliation(s)
- Peer J. Nowack
- Department of Chemistry, Centre for Atmospheric ScienceUniversity of CambridgeCambridgeUK
| | | | - N. Luke Abraham
- Department of Chemistry, Centre for Atmospheric ScienceUniversity of CambridgeCambridgeUK
- National Centre for Atmospheric ScienceUK
| | - John A. Pyle
- Department of Chemistry, Centre for Atmospheric ScienceUniversity of CambridgeCambridgeUK
- National Centre for Atmospheric ScienceUK
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11
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Kuttippurath J, Nair PJ. The signs of Antarctic ozone hole recovery. Sci Rep 2017; 7:585. [PMID: 28373709 PMCID: PMC5429648 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-017-00722-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 55] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/13/2016] [Accepted: 03/09/2017] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
Absorption of solar radiation by stratospheric ozone affects atmospheric dynamics and chemistry, and sustains life on Earth by preventing harmful radiation from reaching the surface. Significant ozone losses due to increases in the abundances of ozone depleting substances (ODSs) were first observed in Antarctica in the 1980s. Losses deepened in following years but became nearly flat by around 2000, reflecting changes in global ODS emissions. Here we show robust evidence that Antarctic ozone has started to recover in both spring and summer, with a recovery signal identified in springtime ozone profile and total column measurements at 99% confidence for the first time. Continuing recovery is expected to impact the future climate of that region. Our results demonstrate that the Montreal Protocol has indeed begun to save the Antarctic ozone layer.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jayanarayanan Kuttippurath
- CORAL, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur, Kharagpur, 721302, India. .,LATMOS/CNRS, UPMC University of Paris 06, Paris, France.
| | - Prijitha J Nair
- CORAL, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur, Kharagpur, 721302, India.,Centre for Earth Science Studies, Thiruvananthapuram, India
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12
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Li F, Vikhliaev YV, Newman PA, Pawson S, Perlwitz J, Waugh DW, Douglass AR. Impacts of Interactive Stratospheric Chemistry on Antarctic and Southern Ocean Climate Change in the Goddard Earth Observing System - Version 5 (GEOS-5). JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 2016; 29:3199-3218. [PMID: 32742076 PMCID: PMC7394345 DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-15-0572.1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/27/2023]
Abstract
Stratospheric ozone depletion plays a major role in driving climate change in the Southern Hemisphere. To date, many climate models prescribe the stratospheric ozone layer's evolution using monthly and zonally averaged ozone fields. However, the prescribed ozone underestimates Antarctic ozone depletion and lacks zonal asymmetries. In this study we investigate the impact of using interactive stratospheric chemistry instead of prescribed ozone on climate change simulations of the Antarctic and Southern Ocean. Two sets of 1960-2010 ensemble transient simulations are conducted with the coupled ocean version of the Goddard Earth Observing System Model version 5: one with interactive stratospheric chemistry and the other with prescribed ozone derived from the same interactive simulations. The model's climatology is evaluated using observations and reanalysis. Comparison of the 1979-2010 climate trends between these two simulations reveals that interactive chemistry has important effects on climate change not only in the Antarctic stratosphere, troposphere and surface, but also in the Southern Ocean and Antarctic sea ice. Interactive chemistry causes stronger Antarctic lower stratosphere cooling and circumpolar westerly acceleration during November-December-January. It enhances stratosphere-troposphere coupling and leads to significantly larger tropospheric and surface westerly changes. The significantly stronger surface wind-stress trends cause larger increases of the Southern Ocean Meridional Overturning Circulation, leading to year-round stronger ocean warming near the surface and enhanced Antarctic sea ice decrease.
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Affiliation(s)
- Feng Li
- Goddard Earth Sciences Technology and Research, Universities Space Research Association, Columbia, Maryland, USA
- Atmospheric Chemistry and Dynamics Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, USA
| | - Yury V. Vikhliaev
- Goddard Earth Sciences Technology and Research, Universities Space Research Association, Columbia, Maryland, USA
- Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, USA
| | - Paul A. Newman
- Atmospheric Chemistry and Dynamics Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, USA
| | - Steven Pawson
- Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, USA
| | - Judith Perlwitz
- Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, and Physical Sciences Division, NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado, USA
| | - Darryn W. Waugh
- Department of Earth and Planetary Science, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
| | - Anne R. Douglass
- Atmospheric Chemistry and Dynamics Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, USA
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13
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Maycock AC, Ineson S, Gray LJ, Scaife AA, Anstey JA, Lockwood M, Butchart N, Hardiman SC, Mitchell DM, Osprey SM. Possible impacts of a future grand solar minimum on climate: Stratospheric and global circulation changes. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH. ATMOSPHERES : JGR 2015; 120:9043-9058. [PMID: 26937327 PMCID: PMC4758621 DOI: 10.1002/2014jd022022] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/12/2014] [Revised: 04/24/2015] [Accepted: 04/24/2015] [Indexed: 06/05/2023]
Abstract
A future decline in solar activity would not offset projected global warmingA future decline in solar activity could have larger regional effects in winterTop-down mechanism contributes to Northern Hemisphere regional response.
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Affiliation(s)
- A. C. Maycock
- Centre for Atmospheric ScienceUniversity of CambridgeCambridgeUK
- National Centre for Atmospheric ScienceUK
| | - S. Ineson
- Met Office Hadley CentreMet OfficeExeterUK
| | - L. J. Gray
- National Centre for Atmospheric ScienceUK
- Department of Atmosphere, Ocean and Planetary PhysicsUniversity of OxfordOxfordUK
| | | | - J. A. Anstey
- Department of Atmosphere, Ocean and Planetary PhysicsUniversity of OxfordOxfordUK
| | - M. Lockwood
- Department of MeteorologyUniversity of ReadingReadingUK
| | | | | | - D. M. Mitchell
- Department of Atmosphere, Ocean and Planetary PhysicsUniversity of OxfordOxfordUK
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14
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Nowack PJ, Abraham NL, Maycock AC, Braesicke P, Gregory JM, Joshi MM, Osprey A, Pyle JA. A large ozone-circulation feedback and its implications for global warming assessments. NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE 2015; 5:41-45. [PMID: 25729440 PMCID: PMC4338532 DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2451] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/14/2014] [Accepted: 10/30/2014] [Indexed: 05/25/2023]
Abstract
State-of-the-art climate models now include more climate processes which are simulated at higher spatial resolution than ever1. Nevertheless, some processes, such as atmospheric chemical feedbacks, are still computationally expensive and are often ignored in climate simulations1,2. Here we present evidence that how stratospheric ozone is represented in climate models can have a first order impact on estimates of effective climate sensitivity. Using a comprehensive atmosphere-ocean chemistry-climate model, we find an increase in global mean surface warming of around 1°C (~20%) after 75 years when ozone is prescribed at pre-industrial levels compared with when it is allowed to evolve self-consistently in response to an abrupt 4×CO2 forcing. The difference is primarily attributed to changes in longwave radiative feedbacks associated with circulation-driven decreases in tropical lower stratospheric ozone and related stratospheric water vapour and cirrus cloud changes. This has important implications for global model intercomparison studies1,2 in which participating models often use simplified treatments of atmospheric composition changes that are neither consistent with the specified greenhouse gas forcing scenario nor with the associated atmospheric circulation feedbacks3-5.
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Affiliation(s)
- Peer J Nowack
- Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Chemistry, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom
| | - N Luke Abraham
- National Centre for Atmospheric Science, United Kingdom ; Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Chemistry, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom
| | - Amanda C Maycock
- Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Chemistry, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom ; National Centre for Atmospheric Science, United Kingdom
| | - Peter Braesicke
- National Centre for Atmospheric Science, United Kingdom ; Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Chemistry, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom
| | - Jonathan M Gregory
- National Centre for Atmospheric Science, United Kingdom ; Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom ; Met Office Hadley Centre, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom
| | - Manoj M Joshi
- National Centre for Atmospheric Science, United Kingdom ; Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
| | - Annette Osprey
- National Centre for Atmospheric Science, United Kingdom ; Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
| | - John A Pyle
- Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Chemistry, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom ; National Centre for Atmospheric Science, United Kingdom
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15
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Waugh DW. Changes in the ventilation of the southern oceans. PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS. SERIES A, MATHEMATICAL, PHYSICAL, AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES 2014; 372:20130269. [PMID: 24891397 DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2013.0269] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/03/2023]
Abstract
Changes in the ventilation of the southern oceans over the past few decades are examined using ocean measurements of CFC-12 and model simulations. Analysis of CFC-12 measurements made between the late 1980s and late 2000s reveal large-scale coherent changes in the ventilation, with a decrease in the age of subtropical Subantarctic Mode Waters (SAMW) and an increase in the age of Circumpolar Deep Waters. The decrease in SAMW age is consistent with the observed increase in wind stress curl and strength of the subtropical gyres over the same period. A decrease in the age of SAMW is also found in Community Climate System Model version 4 perturbation experiments where the zonal wind stress is increased. This decrease is due to both more rapid transport along isopycnals and the movement of the isopycnals. These results indicate that the intensification of surface winds in the Southern Hemisphere has caused large-scale coherent changes in the ventilation of the southern oceans.
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Affiliation(s)
- Darryn W Waugh
- Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Johns Hopkins University, 3400 N Charles Street, Baltimore, MD 21218, USA
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Li X, Holland DM, Gerber EP, Yoo C. Impacts of the north and tropical Atlantic Ocean on the Antarctic Peninsula and sea ice. Nature 2014; 505:538-42. [DOI: 10.1038/nature12945] [Citation(s) in RCA: 182] [Impact Index Per Article: 18.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/19/2013] [Accepted: 12/10/2013] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Waugh DW, Primeau F, Devries T, Holzer M. Recent changes in the ventilation of the southern oceans. Science 2013; 339:568-70. [PMID: 23372011 DOI: 10.1126/science.1225411] [Citation(s) in RCA: 109] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/03/2022]
Abstract
Surface westerly winds in the Southern Hemisphere have intensified over the past few decades, primarily in response to the formation of the Antarctic ozone hole, and there is intense debate on the impact of this on the ocean's circulation and uptake and redistribution of atmospheric gases. We used measurements of chlorofluorocarbon-12 (CFC-12) made in the southern oceans in the early 1990s and mid- to late 2000s to examine changes in ocean ventilation. Our analysis of the CFC-12 data reveals a decrease in the age of subtropical subantarctic mode waters and an increase in the age of circumpolar deep waters, suggesting that the formation of the Antarctic ozone hole has caused large-scale coherent changes in the ventilation of the southern oceans.
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Affiliation(s)
- Darryn W Waugh
- Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21218, USA.
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Adachi Y, Yukimoto S, Deushi M, Obata A, Nakano H, Tanaka TY, Hosaka M, Sakami T, Yoshimura H, Hirabara M, Shindo E, Tsujino H, Mizuta R, Yabu S, Koshiro T, Ose T, Kitoh A. Basic performance of a new earth system model of the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI-ESM1). ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2013. [DOI: 10.2467/mripapers.64.1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 56] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/31/2022]
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Chang EKM, Guo Y, Xia X. CMIP5 multimodel ensemble projection of storm track change under global warming. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2012. [DOI: 10.1029/2012jd018578] [Citation(s) in RCA: 239] [Impact Index Per Article: 19.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/10/2022]
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Screen JA, Simmonds I. Half-century air temperature change above Antarctica: Observed trends and spatial reconstructions. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2012. [DOI: 10.1029/2012jd017885] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/10/2022]
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Wilcox LJ, Charlton-Perez AJ, Gray LJ. Trends in Austral jet position in ensembles of high- and low-top CMIP5 models. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2012. [DOI: 10.1029/2012jd017597] [Citation(s) in RCA: 65] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/10/2022]
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Capotondi A, Alexander MA, Bond NA, Curchitser EN, Scott JD. Enhanced upper ocean stratification with climate change in the CMIP3 models. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2012. [DOI: 10.1029/2011jc007409] [Citation(s) in RCA: 189] [Impact Index Per Article: 15.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/10/2022]
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Karpechko AY, Manzini E. Stratospheric influence on tropospheric climate change in the Northern Hemisphere. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2012. [DOI: 10.1029/2011jd017036] [Citation(s) in RCA: 54] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Alexander MJ, Teitelbaum H. Three-dimensional properties of Andes mountain waves observed by satellite: A case study. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2011. [DOI: 10.1029/2011jd016151] [Citation(s) in RCA: 46] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Kang SM, Polvani LM, Fyfe JC, Sigmond M. Impact of polar ozone depletion on subtropical precipitation. Science 2011; 332:951-4. [PMID: 21512001 DOI: 10.1126/science.1202131] [Citation(s) in RCA: 191] [Impact Index Per Article: 14.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/02/2022]
Abstract
Over the past half-century, the ozone hole has caused a poleward shift of the extratropical westerly jet in the Southern Hemisphere. Here, we argue that these extratropical circulation changes, resulting from ozone depletion, have substantially contributed to subtropical precipitation changes. Specifically, we show that precipitation in the southern subtropics in austral summer increases significantly when climate models are integrated with reduced polar ozone concentrations. Furthermore, the observed patterns of subtropical precipitation change, from 1979 to 2000, are very similar to those in our model integrations, where ozone depletion alone is prescribed. In both climate models and observations, the subtropical moistening is linked to a poleward shift of the extratropical westerly jet. Our results highlight the importance of polar regions for the subtropical hydrological cycle.
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Affiliation(s)
- S M Kang
- Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA.
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Deushi M, Shibata K. Development of a Meteorological Research Institute Chemistry-Climate Model version 2 for the Study of Tropospheric and Stratospheric Chemistry. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2011. [DOI: 10.2467/mripapers.62.1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 57] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/31/2022]
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McKenzie RL, Aucamp PJ, Bais AF, Björn LO, Ilyas M, Madronich S. Ozone depletion and climate change: impacts on UV radiation. Photochem Photobiol Sci 2011; 10:182-98. [DOI: 10.1039/c0pp90034f] [Citation(s) in RCA: 301] [Impact Index Per Article: 23.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/21/2022]
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Karpechko AY, Gillett NP, Gray LJ, Dall'Amico M. Influence of ozone recovery and greenhouse gas increases on Southern Hemisphere circulation. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2010. [DOI: 10.1029/2010jd014423] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Son SW, Gerber EP, Perlwitz J, Polvani LM, Gillett NP, Seo KH, Eyring V, Shepherd TG, Waugh D, Akiyoshi H, Austin J, Baumgaertner A, Bekki S, Braesicke P, Brühl C, Butchart N, Chipperfield MP, Cugnet D, Dameris M, Dhomse S, Frith S, Garny H, Garcia R, Hardiman SC, Jöckel P, Lamarque JF, Mancini E, Marchand M, Michou M, Nakamura T, Morgenstern O, Pitari G, Plummer DA, Pyle J, Rozanov E, Scinocca JF, Shibata K, Smale D, Teyssèdre H, Tian W, Yamashita Y. Impact of stratospheric ozone on Southern Hemisphere circulation change: A multimodel assessment. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2010. [DOI: 10.1029/2010jd014271] [Citation(s) in RCA: 248] [Impact Index Per Article: 17.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Austin J, Wilson RJ. Sensitivity of polar ozone to sea surface temperatures and halogen amounts. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2010. [DOI: 10.1029/2009jd013292] [Citation(s) in RCA: 28] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Morgenstern O, Akiyoshi H, Bekki S, Braesicke P, Butchart N, Chipperfield MP, Cugnet D, Deushi M, Dhomse SS, Garcia RR, Gettelman A, Gillett NP, Hardiman SC, Jumelet J, Kinnison DE, Lamarque JF, Lott F, Marchand M, Michou M, Nakamura T, Olivié D, Peter T, Plummer D, Pyle JA, Rozanov E, Saint-Martin D, Scinocca JF, Shibata K, Sigmond M, Smale D, Teyssèdre H, Tian W, Voldoire A, Yamashita Y. Anthropogenic forcing of the Northern Annular Mode in CCMVal-2 models. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2010. [DOI: 10.1029/2009jd013347] [Citation(s) in RCA: 29] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Morgenstern O, Giorgetta MA, Shibata K, Eyring V, Waugh DW, Shepherd TG, Akiyoshi H, Austin J, Baumgaertner AJG, Bekki S, Braesicke P, Brühl C, Chipperfield MP, Cugnet D, Dameris M, Dhomse S, Frith SM, Garny H, Gettelman A, Hardiman SC, Hegglin MI, Jöckel P, Kinnison DE, Lamarque JF, Mancini E, Manzini E, Marchand M, Michou M, Nakamura T, Nielsen JE, Olivié D, Pitari G, Plummer DA, Rozanov E, Scinocca JF, Smale D, Teyssèdre H, Toohey M, Tian W, Yamashita Y. Review of the formulation of present-generation stratospheric chemistry-climate models and associated external forcings. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2010. [DOI: 10.1029/2009jd013728] [Citation(s) in RCA: 138] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Waugh DW, Polvani LM. Stratospheric polar vortices. THE STRATOSPHERE: DYNAMICS, TRANSPORT, AND CHEMISTRY 2010. [DOI: 10.1029/2009gm000887] [Citation(s) in RCA: 42] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/12/2022]
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Tilmes S, Garcia RR, Kinnison DE, Gettelman A, Rasch PJ. Impact of geoengineered aerosols on the troposphere and stratosphere. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2009. [DOI: 10.1029/2008jd011420] [Citation(s) in RCA: 126] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Andrady A, Aucamp PJ, Bais A, Ballaré CL, Björn LO, Bornman JF, Caldwell M, Cullen AP, Erickson DJ, de Gruijl FR, Häder DP, Ilyas M, Kulandaivelu G, Kumar HD, Longstreth J, McKenzie RL, Norval M, Paul N, Redhwi HH, Smith RC, Solomon KR, Sulzberger B, Takizawa Y, Tang X, Teramura AH, Torikai A, van der Leun JC, Wilson SR, Worrest RC, Zepp RG. Environmental effects of ozone depletion and its interactions with climate change: progress report, 2008. Photochem Photobiol Sci 2009; 8:13-22. [PMID: 19256109 DOI: 10.1039/b820432m] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/21/2022]
Abstract
After the enthusiastic celebration of the 20th Anniversary of the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer in 2007, the work for the protection of the ozone layer continues. The Environmental Effects Assessment Panel is one of the three expert panels within the Montreal Protocol. This EEAP deals with the increase of the UV irradiance on the Earth's surface and its effects on human health, animals, plants, biogeochemistry, air quality and materials. For the past few years, interactions of ozone depletion with climate change have also been considered. It has become clear that the environmental problems will be long-lasting. In spite of the fact that the worldwide production of ozone depleting chemicals has already been reduced by 95%, the environmental disturbances are expected to persist for about the next half a century, even if the protective work is actively continued, and completed. The latest full report was published in Photochem. Photobiol. Sci., 2007, 6, 201-332, and the last progress report in Photochem. Photobiol. Sci., 2008, 7, 15-27. The next full report on environmental effects is scheduled for the year 2010. The present progress report 2008 is one of the short interim reports, appearing annually.
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Oman L, Waugh DW, Pawson S, Stolarski RS, Newman PA. On the influence of anthropogenic forcings on changes in the stratospheric mean age. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2009. [DOI: 10.1029/2008jd010378] [Citation(s) in RCA: 72] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Yang ES, Cunnold DM, Newchurch MJ, Salawitch RJ, McCormick MP, Russell JM, Zawodny JM, Oltmans SJ. First stage of Antarctic ozone recovery. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2008. [DOI: 10.1029/2007jd009675] [Citation(s) in RCA: 49] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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