The last glacial termination

Path-dependence of the Plio-Pleistocene glacial/interglacial cycles

We find strong path dependence in the evolution of the Plio-Pleistocene glaciations using CLIMBER-2 Earth System Model simulations from the mid-Pliocene to modern preindustrial (3 My-0 My BP) driven by a gradual decrease in volcanic carbon dioxide outgassing and regolith removal from basal ice interaction. Path dependence and hysteresis are investigated by alternatively driving the model forward and backward in time. Initiating the model with preindustrial conditions and driving the model backward using time-reversed forcings, the increase in volcanic outgassing back-in-time (BIT) does not generate the high CO2 levels and relatively ice-free conditions of the late Pliocene seen in forward-in-time (FIT) simulations of the same model. This behavior appears to originate from nonlinearities and initial state dependence in the carbon cycle. A transition from low-amplitude sinusoidal obliquity (~41 ky) and precession (~23 ky) driven glacial/interglacial cycles to high-amplitude ~100 ky likely eccentricity-related sawtooth cycles seen between -1.25 My and -0.75 My BP (the Mid-Pleistocene transition or "MPT") in FIT simulations disappears in BIT integrations depending on the details of how the regolith removal process is treated. A transition toward depleted regolith and lowered atmospheric CO2 levels are both required to reproduce the MPT.

Evolution and adaptation of terrestrial plant-associated Plantibacter species into remote marine environments

Microbes are thought to be distributed and circulated around the world, but the connection between marine and terrestrial microbiomes remains largely unknown. We use Plantibacter, a representative genus associated with plants, as our research model to investigate the global distribution and adaptation of plant-related bacteria in plant-free environments, particularly in the remote Southern Ocean and the deep Atlantic Ocean. The marine isolates and their plant-associated relatives shared over 98% whole-genome average nucleotide identity (ANI), indicating recent divergence and ongoing speciation from plant-related niches to marine environments. Comparative genomics revealed that the marine strains acquired new genes via horizontal gene transfer from non-Plantibacter species and refined existing genes through positive selection to improve adaptation to new habitats. Meanwhile, marine strains retained the ability to interact with plants, such as modifying root system architecture and promoting germination. Furthermore, Plantibacter species were found to be widely distributed in marine environments, revealing an unrecognized phenomenon that plant-associated microbiomes have colonized the ocean, which could serve as a reservoir for plant growth-promoting microbes. This study demonstrates the presence of an active reservoir of terrestrial plant growth-promoting bacteria in remote marine systems and advances our understanding of the microbial connections between plant-associated and plant-free environments at the genome level.

A marine record of Patagonian ice sheet changes over the past 140,000 years

Terrestrial glacial records from the Patagonian Andes and New Zealand Alps document quasi-synchronous Southern Hemisphere-wide glacier advances during the late Quaternary. However, these records are inherently incomplete. Here, we provide a continuous marine record of western-central Patagonian ice sheet (PIS) extent over a complete glacial-interglacial cycle back into the penultimate glacial (~140 ka). Sediment core MR16-09 PC03, located at 46°S and ~150 km offshore Chile, received high terrestrial sediment and meltwater input when the central PIS extended westward. We use biomarkers, foraminiferal oxygen isotopes, and major elemental data to reconstruct terrestrial sediment and freshwater input related to PIS variations. Our sediment record documents three intervals of general PIS marginal fluctuations, during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 6 (140 to 135 ka), MIS 4 (~70 to 60 ka), and late MIS 3 to MIS 2 (~40 to 18 ka). These higher terrigenous input intervals occurred during sea-level low stands, when the western PIS covered most of the Chilean fjords, which today retain glaciofluvial sediments. During these intervals, high-amplitude phases of enhanced sediment supply occur at millennial timescales, reflecting increased ice discharge most likely due to a growing PIS. We assign the late MIS 3 to MIS 2 phases and, by inference, older advances to Antarctic cold stages. We conclude that the increased sediment/meltwater release during Southern Hemisphere millennial-scale cold phases was likely related to higher precipitation caused by enhanced westerly winds at the northwestern margin of the PIS. Our records complement terrestrial archives and provide evidence for PIS climate sensitivity.

Global oceanic oxygenation controlled by the Southern Ocean through the last deglaciation

Ocean dissolved oxygen (DO) can provide insights on how the marine carbon cycle affects global climate change. However, the net global DO change and the controlling mechanisms remain uncertain through the last deglaciation. Here, we present a globally integrated DO reconstruction using thallium isotopes, corroborating lower global DO during the Last Glacial Maximum [19 to 23 thousand years before the present (ka B.P.)] relative to the Holocene. During the deglaciation, we reveal reoxygenation in the Heinrich Stadial 1 (~14.7 to 18 ka B.P.) and the Younger Dryas (11.7 to 12.9 ka B.P.), with deoxygenation during the Bølling-Allerød (12.9 to 14.7 ka B.P.). The deglacial DO changes were decoupled from North Atlantic Deep Water formation rates and imply that Southern Ocean ventilation controlled ocean oxygen. The coherence between global DO and atmospheric CO2 on millennial timescales highlights the Southern Ocean's role in deglacial atmospheric CO2 rise.

Early sea ice decline off East Antarctica at the last glacial-interglacial climate transition

Antarctic climate warming and atmospheric CO2 rise during the last deglaciation may be attributed in part to sea ice reduction in the Southern Ocean. Yet, glacial-interglacial Antarctic sea ice dynamics and underlying mechanisms are poorly constrained, as robust sea ice proxy evidence is sparse. Here, we present a molecular biomarker-based sea ice record that resolves the spring/summer sea ice variability off East Antarctica during the past 40 thousand years (ka). Our results indicate that substantial sea ice reduction culminated rapidly and contemporaneously with upwelling of carbon-enriched waters in the Southern Ocean at the onset of the last deglaciation but began at least ~2 ka earlier probably driven by an increasing local integrated summer insolation. Our findings suggest that sea ice reduction and associated feedbacks facilitated stratification breakup and outgassing of CO2 in the Southern Ocean and warming in Antarctica but may also have played a leading role in initializing these deglacial processes in the Southern Hemisphere.

Anthropogenic activity and millennial climate variability affect Holocene mercury deposition of an alpine wetland near the largest mercury mine in China

Mercury (Hg) is a potentially toxic element that can be transported globally through the atmosphere, once deposited in the environment, has strong bioaccumulation and extreme toxicity in food webs, especially in wetland ecosystems. Anthropogenic Hg emissions have enhanced Hg deposition by 3-5 times since the industrial revolution, and the mining and smelting of Hg ore are important emission sources. However, the dynamics in Hg deposition around the largest Hg mine in China before the industrial revolution and their driving forces remain poorly explored. Here we reconstruct the atmospheric Hg depositional fluxes (named here Hg influx (Hg_influx)) during the Holocene using a 450-cm alpine wetland sediment core taken from the Jiulongchi wetland, which is only 65 km to the Wanshan Mercury Mine. Our record shows an abrupt rapid increase in Hg concentration since 2500 cal yr BP, suggesting that Hg mining in southwest China may have started before the establishment of the Qin dynasty. Two major Hg_influx peaks were found during the periods 10,000-6000 and 6000 - 3800 cal yr BP, with an increase in Hg deposition by a factor of 4-8. These two peaks are also found in other terrestrial archives from several sites across the Northern Hemisphere. We speculate that critical millennial-scale climate changes, i.e., the Holocene Climatic Optimum (HCO) and the Mid-Holocene Transition (MHT), were the potential triggers of these two Hg_influx peaks. This study highlights the importance of climatic variability and local Hg mining in controlling atmospheric Hg deposition during the Holocene.

Fast response of vegetation in East Asia to abrupt climatic events during the last deglaciation

Climate changes had major impacts on the vegetation of East Asia during the last deglaciation. However, the rate and pattern of vegetation succession in response to large-scale climatic events during this interval are controversial. Here, we present well-dated decadal-resolution pollen records from annually laminated Maar Lake Xiaolongwan during the last deglaciation. The vegetation changes were rapid and near-synchronous with millennial-scale climatic events, including Greenland Stadial 2.1a (GS-2.1a), Greenland Interstadial 1 (GI-1), Greenland Stadial 1 (GS-1), and the early Holocene (EH). The vegetation responded in different ways to the different rates of climate change. Vegetation change was gradual [∼1 thousand years (kyr) response time] during the transition between GS-2.1a and GI-1, but it was faster (∼0.4 kyr response time) during the transitions between GI-1, GS-1, and the EH, resulting in different patterns of vegetation succession. Additionally, the amplitude and pattern of vegetation changes resembled those in the records of regional climate change based on long-chain n-alkanes δ¹³C and stalagmite δ¹⁸O, as well as in the mid-latitude Northern Hemisphere temperature record and the Greenland ice core δ¹⁸O record. Therefore, the rate and pattern of vegetation succession in the Changbai Mountain of Northeast Asia during the last deglaciation were sensitive to the characteristics of changes in the regional hydrothermal conditions and mid-latitude Northern Hemisphere temperature, which were linked to both high- and low-latitude atmospheric-oceanic dynamics. Overall, our findings reveal a close relationship between ecosystem succession and hydrothermal changes during these millennial-scale climatic events in East Asia during the last deglaciation.

Hydroclimatic changes since the Last Glacial Maximum recorded in mountain peat deposit on the southwestern margin of the Sichuan Basin, China

Knowledge of the hydroclimatic changes in Southwest China since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is crucial for disentangling the long-term evolution of the Asia Monsoon and predicting the future fate of the mountain peat deposit in the Asia Monsoon region. In this study, we obtained a 530-cm-long peat core from the Ganchi wetland in Southwest China and analyzed its geochemical indices, including total nitrogen (TN), total organic carbon (TOC), stable carbon isotope composition of organics (δ13Corg), and the concentration of several major elements, to investigate the sedimentary and hydroclimate evolution since the LGM. We found that the peat strata in the Ganchi wetland have developed gradually from 13.7 cal kyr BP, which is likely ascribed to the warm climate during the Bølling-Allerød (B/A) period. TOC, δ13Corg, K/Ti, and Fe/Mn records showed notable paleoclimate shifts since the last deglaciation. The first warming period after the LGM was observed starting at 18.2 cal kyr BP, which is consistent with other records from Southwest China. The reconstruction results show that the western margin of the Sichuan Basin during the last deglaciation was most affected by the East Asia summer monsoon (EASM), and less affected by the Indian summer monsoon (ISM). The climate of the early Holocene (11.2–7.5 cal kyr BP) was affected by both the ISM and EASM, resulting in more complex local climatic features. The Holocene Megathermal period observed from 7.5 to 3.5 cal kyr BP, is consistent with the timing detected in other records of Southwest China.

Terrestrial evidence for ocean forcing of Heinrich events and subglacial hydrologic connectivity of the Laurentide Ice Sheet

During the last glacial period, the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) underwent episodes of rapid iceberg discharge, recorded in ocean sediments as "Heinrich events" (HEs). Two competing models attempt to describe the stimulus for HEs via either internal ice sheet oscillations or external ocean-climate system forcing. We present a terrestrial record of HEs from the northeastern LIS that strongly supports ocean-climate forcing. Subglacial carbonate precipitates from Baffin Island record episodes of subglacial melting coincident with the three most recent HEs, resulting from acceleration of nearby marine-terminating ice streams. Synchronized ice stream acceleration over Baffin Island and Hudson Strait is inconsistent with internal ice sheet oscillations alone and indicates a shared ocean-climate stimulus to coordinate these different glaciological systems. Isotopic compositions of these precipitates record widespread subglacial groundwater connectivity beneath the LIS. Extensive basal melting and flushing of these aquifers during the last HE may have been a harbinger for terminal deglaciation.

Multiple carbon cycle mechanisms associated with the glaciation of Marine Isotope Stage 4

Here we use high-precision carbon isotope data (δ¹³C-CO₂) to show atmospheric CO₂ during Marine Isotope Stage 4 (MIS 4, ~70.5-59 ka) was controlled by a succession of millennial-scale processes. Enriched δ¹³C-CO₂ during peak glaciation suggests increased ocean carbon storage. Variations in δ¹³C-CO₂ in early MIS 4 suggest multiple processes were active during CO₂ drawdown, potentially including decreased land carbon and decreased Southern Ocean air-sea gas exchange superposed on increased ocean carbon storage. CO₂ remained low during MIS 4 while δ¹³C-CO₂ fluctuations suggest changes in Southern Ocean and North Atlantic air-sea gas exchange. A 7 ppm increase in CO₂ at the onset of Dansgaard-Oeschger event 19 (72.1 ka) and 27 ppm increase in CO₂ during late MIS 4 (Heinrich Stadial 6, ~63.5-60 ka) involved additions of isotopically light carbon to the atmosphere. The terrestrial biosphere and Southern Ocean air-sea gas exchange are possible sources, with the latter event also involving decreased ocean carbon storage.

Summary for general audience: We used carbon stable isotope data from an Antarctic ice core to evaluate which mechanisms caused changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide 74-59 thousand years ago, including a ~40 ppm decrease at the beginning of the last ice age.

Assessing diversity of King Crab Lithodes spp. in the south‐eastern pacific using phylogeny and molecular species delimitation methods

The purpose of this study was to test the hypothesis that the genetic diversity of commercially significant species of King Crabs (Lithodes spp.) along the south‐eastern Pacific (SEP) comprises different independent evolutionary units (IEUs) with spatially isolated distribution. Nine localities from inner and open waters along the SEP Chilean coast (39°S‐55°S) were sampled. We analyzed sequences from 173 individuals for the mitochondrial gene Cytochrome oxidase I (COX‐I), 151 individuals for the Internal Transcribed Spacer 1 (ITS) and 135 for the structural ribosomal RNA (28S). Genetic delimitation was performed through three analytical methods: ABGD, GMYC, and its Bayesian implementation, bGMYC. Bayesian phylogenetic analyses and haplotype networks were also performed. Divergence time between clades was assessed for the COX‐I marker and estimated from known evolutionary rates for this marker in other crustacean species and fossil calibration from other Anomuran species. Delimitation analyses, phylogenetic analyses, and mitochondrial haplotype networks suggested the presence of two deeply divergent mitochondrial lineages of Lithodes in the SEP, referred to as Clade1 and Clade 2. Nuclear markers showed low phylogenetic resolution and therefore were unsuitable for molecular species delimitation. Divergence time analysis of the mitochondrial lineages suggests a separation between Clades of approximately 2.3 Mya. The divergence time obtained suggested that Pliocene glaciations and deglaciations cycles could be involved in hybridization events between Lithodes IEUs at southern tip of South American coasts. The different frequencies of Lithodes haplotypes in inner and open water environments along SEP coasts could be explained by events such as the last glacial maximum or by differences in the adaptation of each clade to different environments. These findings support the necessity of evaluating the taxonomic status of Lithodes individuals found along SEP coasts under an integrative taxonomy approach or through markers with other evolution rates than those already used.

Forward modelling of the completeness and preservation of palaeoclimate signals recorded by ice-marginal moraines

Glaciers fluctuate in response to climate change and record these changes by building sedimentary landforms, including moraines. Therefore, glacial landscapes are a potentially valuable archive of terrestrial palaeoclimate change. Typically, a cooling climate causes glaciers to expand and a warming climate causes glaciers to shrink. However, the glacier response time and the influence of mountainous topography on glacier dynamics complicates this behaviour, such that moraines are not always a straightforward indicator of glacier change in response to climate change. We used a glacial landscape evolution model to simulate the response of a hypothetical mountain glacier to simple changes in climate and the resulting formation and preservation of moraines. These results show that the rate of climate change relative to the glacier response time determines the geometry, number, and position of moraines. Glaciers can build distinct moraines in the absence of climate change. The distance from the maximum ice extent may not represent the chronological order of moraine formation. Moraines can be preserved after being overrun and eroded by subsequent glaciations, but moraine sequences may also contain gaps that are unidentifiable in the field.

Glacier fluctuations in the northern Patagonian Andes (44°S) imply wind-modulated interhemispheric in-phase climate shifts during Termination 1

The Last Glacial Termination (T1) featured major changes in global circulation systems that led to a shift from glacial to interglacial climate. While polar ice cores attest to an antiphased thermal pattern at millennial timescales, recent well-dated moraine records from both hemispheres suggest in-phase fluctuations in glaciers through T1, which is inconsistent with the bipolar see-saw paradigm. Here, we present a glacier chronology based on 30 new ¹⁰Be surface exposure ages from well-preserved moraines in the Lago Palena/General Vintter basin in northern Patagonia (~ 44°S). We find that the main glacier lobe underwent profound retreat after 19.7 ± 0.7 ka. This recessional trend led to the individualization of the Cerro Riñón glacier by ~ 16.3 ka, which underwent minor readvances at 15.9 ± 0.5 ka during Heinrich Stadial 1, during the Antarctic Cold Reversal with successive maxima at 13.5 ± 0.4, 13.1 ± 0.4, and 13.1 ± 0.5 ka, and a minor culmination at 12.5 ± 0.4 ka during Younger Dryas time. We conclude that fluctuations of Patagonian glaciers during T1 were controlled primarily by climate anomalies brought by shifts in the Southern Westerly Winds (SWW) locus. We posit that the global covariation of mountain glaciers during T1 was linked to variations in atmospheric CO₂ (atmCO₂) promoted by the interplay of the SWW-Southern Ocean system at millennial timescales.

Phases of stability during major hydroclimate change ending the Last Glacial in the Levant

In-depth understanding of the reorganization of the hydrological cycle in response to global climate change is crucial in highly sensitive regions like the eastern Mediterranean, where water availability is a major factor for socioeconomic and political development. The sediments of Lake Lisan provide a unique record of hydroclimatic change during the last glacial to Holocene transition (ca. 24–11 ka) with its tremendous water level drop of ~ 240 m that finally led to its transition into the present hypersaline water body—the Dead Sea. Here we utilize high-resolution sedimentological analyses from the marginal terraces and deep lake to reconstruct an unprecedented seasonal record of the last millennia of Lake Lisan. Aragonite varve formation in intercalated intervals of our record demonstrates that a stepwise long-term lake level decline was interrupted by almost one millennium of rising or stable water level. Even periods of pronounced water level drops indicated by gypsum deposition were interrupted by decades of positive water budgets. Our results thus highlight that even during major climate change at the end of the last glacial, decadal to millennial periods of relatively stable or positive moisture supply occurred which could have been an important premise for human sedentism.

The right tool for the right question: contrasting biogeographic patterns in the notothenioid fish Harpagifer spp. along the Magellan Province

Molecular-based analysis has become a fundamental tool to understand the role of Quaternary glacial episodes. In the Magellan Province in southern South America, ice covering during the last glacial maximum (20 ka) radically altered the landscape/seascape, speciation rates and distribution of species. For the notothenioid fishes of the genus Harpagifer, in the area are described two nominal species. Nevertheless, this genus recently colonized South America from Antarctica, providing a short time for speciation processes. Combining DNA sequences and genotyping-by-sequencing SNPs, we evaluated the role of Quaternary glaciations over the patterns of genetic structure in Harpagifer across its distribution in the Magellan Province. DNA sequences showed low phylogeographic structure, with shared and dominant haplotypes between nominal species, suggesting a single evolutionary unit. SNPs identified contrastingly two groups in Patagonia and a third well-differentiated group in the Falkland/Malvinas Islands with limited and asymmetric gene flow. Linking the information of different markers allowed us to infer the relevance of postglacial colonization mediated by the general oceanographic circulation patterns. Contrasting rough- and fine-scale genetic patterns highlights the relevance of combined methodologies for species delimitation, which, depending on the question to be addressed, allows discrimination among phylogeographic structure, discarding incipient speciation, and contemporary spatial differentiation processes.

Climate changes modulated the history of Arctic iodine during the Last Glacial Cycle

Iodine has a significant impact on promoting the formation of new ultrafine aerosol particles and accelerating tropospheric ozone loss, thereby affecting radiative forcing and climate. Therefore, understanding the long-term natural evolution of iodine, and its coupling with climate variability, is key to adequately assess its effect on climate on centennial to millennial timescales. Here, using two Greenland ice cores (NEEM and RECAP), we report the Arctic iodine variability during the last 127,000 years. We find the highest and lowest iodine levels recorded during interglacial and glacial periods, respectively, modulated by ocean bioproductivity and sea ice dynamics. Our sub-decadal resolution measurements reveal that high frequency iodine emission variability occurred in pace with Dansgaard/Oeschger events, highlighting the rapid Arctic ocean-ice-atmosphere iodine exchange response to abrupt climate changes. Finally, we discuss if iodine levels during past warmer-than-present climate phases can serve as analogues of future scenarios under an expected ice-free Arctic Ocean. We argue that the combination of natural biogenic ocean iodine release (boosted by ongoing Arctic warming and sea ice retreat) and anthropogenic ozone-induced iodine emissions may lead to a near future scenario with the highest iodine levels of the last 127,000 years.

Abrupt climate changes in the last two deglaciations simulated with different Northern ice sheet discharge and insolation

There were significant differences between the last two deglaciations, particularly in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and Antarctic warming in the deglaciations and the following interglacials. Here, we present transient simulations of deglaciation using a coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model for the last two deglaciations focusing on the impact of ice sheet discharge on climate changes associated with the AMOC in the first part, and the sensitivity studies using a Northern Hemisphere ice sheet model in the second part. We show that a set of abrupt climate changes of the last deglaciation, including Bolling–Allerod warming, the Younger Dryas, and onset of the Holocene were simulated with gradual changes of both ice sheet discharge and radiative forcing. On the other hand, penultimate deglaciation, with the abrupt climate change only at the beginning of the last interglacial was simulated when the ice sheet discharge was greater than in the last deglaciation by a factor of 1.5. The results, together with Northern Hemisphere ice sheet model experiments suggest the importance of the transient climate and AMOC responses to the different orbital forcing conditions of the last two deglaciations, through the mechanisms of mass loss of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheet and meltwater influx to the ocean.

Seismic Activity of the Manisa Fault Zone in Western Turkey Constrained by Cosmogenic 36Cl Dating

This study reports on the cosmogenic 36Cl dating of two normal fault scarps in western Turkey, that of the Manastır and Mugırtepe faults, beyond existing historical records. These faults are elements of the western Manisa Fault Zone (MFZ) in the seismically active Gediz Graben. Our modeling revealed that the Manastır fault underwent at least two surface ruptures at 3.5 ± 0.9 ka and 2.0 ± 0.5 ka, with vertical displacements of 3.3 ± 0.5 m and 3.6 ± 0.5 m, respectively. An event at 6.5 ± 1.6 ka with a vertical displacement of 2.7 ± 0.4 m was reconstructed on the Mugırtepe fault. We attribute these earthquakes to the recurring MFZ ruptures, when also the investigated faults slipped. We calculated average slip rates of 1.9 and 0.3 mm yr−1 for the Manastır and Mugırtepe faults, respectively.

Demographic history and divergence of sibling grouse species inferred from whole genome sequencing reveal past effects of climate change

Background

The boreal forest is one of the largest biomes on earth, supporting thousands of species. The global climate fluctuations in the Quaternary, especially the ice ages, had a significant influence on the distribution of boreal forest, as well as the divergence and evolution of species inhabiting this biome. To understand the possible effects of on-going and future climate change it would be useful to reconstruct past population size changes and relate such to climatic events in the past. We sequenced the genomes of 32 individuals from two forest inhabiting bird species, Hazel Grouse (Tetrastes bonasia) and Chinese Grouse (T. sewerzowi) and three representatives of two outgroup species from Europe and China.

Results

We estimated the divergence time of Chinese Grouse and Hazel Grouse to 1.76 (0.46–3.37) MYA. The demographic history of different populations in these two sibling species was reconstructed, and showed that peaks and bottlenecks of effective population size occurred at different times for the two species. The northern Qilian population of Chinese Grouse became separated from the rest of the species residing in the south approximately 250,000 years ago and have since then showed consistently lower effective population size than the southern population. The Chinese Hazel Grouse population had a higher effective population size at the peak of the Last Glacial Period (approx. 300,000 years ago) than the European population. Both species have decreased recently and now have low effective population sizes.

Conclusions

Combined with the uplift history and reconstructed climate change during the Quaternary, our results support that cold-adapted grouse species diverged in response to changes in the distribution of palaeo-boreal forest and the formation of the Loess Plateau. The combined effects of climate change and an increased human pressure impose major threats to the survival and conservation of both species.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12862-021-01921-7.

Contrasting ecosystem responses to climatic events and human activity revealed by a sedimentary record from Lake Yilong, southwestern China

Global climate change and human activities have significantly impacted lake ecosystems at an accelerating rate in recent decades, but the differences between the responses of lake ecosystems to these two stressors remain unclear. Thus an improved understanding of the long-term influences of climatic and anthropogenic disturbances is necessary for the management of lake ecosystems. In order to address these issues, a sedimentary record was obtained from Lake Yilong in Yunnan Province in southwestern China, where the climate and natural environment are dominated by the Indian Summer Monsoon and there is a long history of human occupation and intensive human activity. The chronology is based on AMS ¹⁴C dates from 13 samples of plant macrofossils and charcoal, which show that the record spans the last ~12,000 yr. Geochemical indices were used to reconstruct hydro-climatic variations and lake ecosystem responses. The results indicate that a cold and humid climate prevailed from the late Pleistocene to the beginning of the Holocene, which was interrupted by an abrupt decrease in precipitation during 9.7-8.7 ka (1 ka = 1000 cal yr BP, corresponding to the 9.3 ka event). A persistent drying trend occurred during the middle and late Holocene, and there was an increase in the intensity of human activity during the past 1500 years. A comparison of the effects of a natural climatic event and human disturbance reveals contrasting lake ecosystem responses. The lake ecosystem was resilient to the 9.3 ka event and subsequently recovered; however, long-term human activity in the watershed, including deforestation and cultivation, reduced the stability of the lake ecosystem and positive feedback effects were strengthened, leading to the deviation of the system far from its previous stable state. It is concluded that, compared to climate change, human activities have had a much more serious impact on lake ecosystem.

Millennial scale feedbacks determine the shape and rapidity of glacial termination

Within the Late Pleistocene, terminations describe the major transitions marking the end of glacial cycles. While it is established that abrupt shifts in the ocean/atmosphere system are a ubiquitous component of deglaciation, significant uncertainties remain concerning their specific role and the likelihood that terminations may be interrupted by large-amplitude abrupt oscillations. In this perspective we address these uncertainties in the light of recent developments in the understanding of glacial terminations as the ultimate interaction between millennial and orbital timescale variability. Innovations in numerical climate simulation and new geologic records allow us to highlight new avenues of research and identify key remaining uncertainties such as sea-level variability.

Genetic Diversity of Ligidium Isopods in Hokkaido and Niigata, Northern Japan, Based on Mitochondrial DNA Analysis

The genetic diversity of the genus Ligidium in Hokkaido and Niigata, northern Japan, was investigated by analyzing the cytochrome c oxidase subunit 1 (CO1) region in the mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA). The genetic diversity in Hokkaido was much lower than that in Niigata. Nine different operational taxonomic units (OTUs) were identified. Only a single OTU, most likely Ligidium japonicum, was found in Hokkaido, whereas all nine OTUs were found in Niigata. Using the mtDNA evolutionary rate determined for the marine invertebrate Haptosquilla pulchella (Miers, 1880), population expansion for OTU1 in Hokkaido was estimated to have occurred at 12,600 years BP, suggesting that Ligidium underwent a bottleneck due to glacial cooling, and the population then expanded after postglacial warming. Assuming that the expansion of the OTU1 population occurred at 9600 years BP, when the sea surface temperature rose offshore of Tokachi in the Northwestern Pacific, the evolutionary rate (µ) of the mtDNA CO1 region in Ligidium is calculated as: 0.087 (95% confidence intervals: min: 0.042-max: 0.12) (substitutions/site/million years). The presence of a haplotype common to Hokkaido and Niigata implies that the haplotype migrated across the Tsugaru Strait. Considering that geological evidence indicates that the Tsugaru Strait was continuously present even during the last glacial maximum when the sea level was at its lowest, accidental transport by human beings or animals might have been critical to the migration of Ligidium.

Seasonal drought events in tropical East Asia over the last 60,000 y

The cause of seasonal hydrologic changes in tropical East Asia during interstadial/stadial oscillations of the last glaciation remains controversial. Here, we show seven seasonal drought events that occurred during the relatively warm interstadials by phytolith and pollen records. These events are significantly manifested as high percentages of bilobate phytoliths and are consistent with the large zonal sea-surface temperature (SST) gradient from the western to eastern tropical Pacific, suggesting that the reduction in seasonal precipitation could be interpreted by westward shifts of the western Pacific subtropical high triggered by changes of zonal SST gradient over the tropical Pacific and Hadley circulation in the Northern Hemisphere. Our findings highlight that both zonal and meridional ocean-atmosphere circulations, rather than solely the Intertropical Convergence Zone or El Niño-Southern Oscillation, controlled the hydrologic changes in tropical East Asia during the last glaciation.

Millennial climate oscillations controlled the structure and evolution of Termination II

The controls that affect the structure and timing of terminations are still poorly understood. We studied a tufa deposit from the Iberian Peninsula that covers Termination II (T-II) and whose chronology was synchronized to speleothem records. We used the same chronology to synchronize ocean sediments from the North Atlantic to correlate major climate events in a common timescale. We identify two stages within T-II. The first stage started with the increase of boreal summer integrated solar insolation, and during this stage three millennial climate oscillations were recorded. These oscillations resulted from complex ocean-atmosphere interactions in the Nordic seas, caused by the progressive decay of Northern Hemisphere ice-sheets. The second stage commenced after a glacial outburst that caused the collapse of the Thermohaline Circulation, a massive Heinrich event, and the onset of the Bipolar Seesaw Mechanism (BSM) that eventually permitted the completion of T-II. The pace of the millennial oscillations during the first stage of T-II controlled the onset of the second stage, when the termination became a non-reversible and global phenomenon that accelerated the deglaciation. During the last the two terminations, the BSM was triggered by different detailed climate interactions, which suggests the occurrence of different modes of terminations.

Chaos and periodicities in a climatic time series of the Iberian Margin

We analyze the time series of the temperature of the sedimentary core MD01-2443 originating from the Iberian Margin with a duration of 420 kyr. The series has been tested for unit-root and a long term trend is estimated. We identify four significant periodicities together with a low climatic activity every 100 kyr, and these were associated with internal and external forcings. Also, we identify a high-frequency fast component that acts on top of a nonlinear, irreversible slow-changing dynamics. We find the presence of chaos in the climate of the Iberian Margin by means of a neural network asymptotic test on the largest Lyapunov exponent. The analysis suggests that the chaotic dynamics is associated with the fast high-frequency component. We also carry out a statistical analysis of the dimensionality of the attractor. Our results confirm the possibility that periodic behavior and chaos may coexist on different time scales. This could lead to different degrees of predictability in the climate system according to the characteristic time scales and/or phase-space locations.

Shut down of the South American summer monsoon during the penultimate glacial

We analysed changes in mean annual air temperature (MAAT), vegetation and biomass burning on a long and continuous lake-peat sediment record from the Colônia basin, southeastern Brazil, examining the responses of a wet tropical rainforest over the last 180 ka. Stronger southern atmospheric circulation up to the latitude of Colônia was found for the penultimate glacial with lower temperatures than during the last glacial, while strengthening of the South American summer monsoon (SASM) circulation started during the last interglacial and progressively enhanced a longer wet summer season from 95 ka until the present. Past MAAT variations and fire history were possibly modulated by eccentricity, although with signatures which differ in average and in amplitude between the last 180 ka. Vegetation responses were driven by the interplay between the SASM and southern circulation linked to Antarctic ice volume, inferred by the presence of a cool mixed evergreen forest from 180 to 45 ka progressively replaced by a rainforest. We report cooler temperatures during the marine isotope stage 3 (MIS 3: 57-29 ka) than during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM: 23-19 ka). Our findings show that tropical forest dynamics display different patterns than mid-latitude during the last 180 ka.

Persistent influence of obliquity on ice age terminations since the Middle Pleistocene transition

Radiometric dating of glacial terminations over the past 640,000 years suggests pacing by Earth's climatic precession, with each glacial-interglacial period spanning four or five cycles of ~20,000 years. However, the lack of firm age estimates for older Pleistocene terminations confounds attempts to test the persistence of precession forcing. We combine an Italian speleothem record anchored by a uranium-lead chronology with North Atlantic ocean data to show that the first two deglaciations of the so-called 100,000-year world are separated by two obliquity cycles, with each termination starting at the same high phase of obliquity, but at opposing phases of precession. An assessment of 11 radiometrically dated terminations spanning the past million years suggests that obliquity exerted a persistent influence on not only their initiation but also their duration.

Resonant Forcing of the Climate System in Subharmonic Modes

During recent decades observation of climate archives has raised several questions. Concerning the mid-Pleistocene transition problem, conflicting sets of hypotheses highlight either the role of ice sheets or atmospheric carbon dioxide in causing the increase in duration and severity of ice age cycles. The role of the solar irradiance modulations in climate variability is frequently referenced but the underlying physical justifications remain most mysterious. Here, we extend the key mechanisms involving the oceanic Rossby waves in climate variability, to very long-period, multi-frequency Rossby waves winding around the subtropical gyres. Our study demonstrates that the climate system responds resonantly to solar and orbital forcing in eleven subharmonic modes. We advocate new hypotheses on the evolution of the past climate, implicating the deviation between forcing periods and natural periods according to the subharmonic modes, and the polar ice caps while challenging the role of the thermohaline circulation.

High-latitude warming initiated the onset of the last deglaciation in the tropics

Atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are thought to have synchronized global temperatures during Pleistocene glacial-interglacial cycles, yet their impact relative to changes in high-latitude insolation and ice-sheet extent remains poorly constrained. Here, we use tropical glacial fluctuations to assess the timing of low-latitude temperature changes relative to global climate forcings. We report ¹⁰Be ages of moraines in tropical East Africa and South America and show that glaciers reached their maxima at ~29 to 20 ka, during the global Last Glacial Maximum. Tropical glacial recession was underway by 20 ka, before the rapid CO₂ rise at ~18.2 ka. This "early" tropical warming was influenced by rising high-latitude insolation and coincident ice-sheet recession in both polar regions, which lowered the meridional thermal gradient and reduced tropical heat export to the high latitudes.

Precession modulation of the South Pacific westerly wind belt over the past million years

The southern westerly wind belt interacts with the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and strongly impacts the Southern Ocean carbon budget, and Antarctic ice-sheet dynamics across glacial–interglacial cycles. We investigated precipitation-driven sediment input changes to the Pacific off Chile over the past one million years, revealing strong precession (19/23-ka) cycles. Our model simulations indicate that the observed cycles are linked to meridional shifts in water vapor transport from the tropical Pacific toward Chile, ultimately forced by variations of the subtropical jet. The wintertime strengthening of the jet is unique to the South Pacific realm and affects winter-controlled atmosphere–ocean processes at mid- and high southern latitudes, with implications for the global overturning circulation and the oceanic storage of atmospheric CO₂.

The southern westerly wind belt (SWW) interacts with the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and strongly impacts the Southern Ocean carbon budget, and Antarctic ice-sheet dynamics across glacial–interglacial cycles. We investigated precipitation-driven sediment input changes to the Southeast Pacific off the southern margin of the Atacama Desert over the past one million years, revealing strong precession (19/23-ka) cycles. Our simulations with 2 ocean–atmosphere general circulation models suggest that observed cyclic rainfall changes are linked to meridional shifts in water vapor transport from the tropical Pacific toward the southern Atacama Desert. These changes reflect a precessional modulation of the split in the austral winter South Pacific jet stream. For precession maxima, we infer significantly enhanced rainfall in the southern Atacama Desert due to a stronger South Pacific split jet with enhanced subtropical/subpolar jets, and a weaker midlatitude jet. Conversely, we derive dry conditions in northern Chile related to reduced subtropical/subpolar jets and an enhanced midlatitude jet for precession minima. The presence of precessional cycles in the Pacific SWW, and lack thereof in other basins, indicate that orbital-scale changes of the SWW were not zonally homogeneous across the Southern Hemisphere, in contrast to the hemispherewide shifts of the SWW suggested for glacial terminations. The strengthening of the jet is unique to the South Pacific realm and might have affected winter-controlled changes in the mixed layer depth, the formation of intermediate water, and the buildup of sea-ice around Antarctica, with implications for the global overturning circulation and the oceanic storage of atmospheric CO₂.

The Origin and Propagation of the Antarctic Centennial Oscillation

The Antarctic Centennial Oscillation (ACO) is a paleoclimate temperature cycle that originates in the Southern Hemisphere, is the presumptive evolutionary precursor of the contemporary Antarctic Oscillation (AAO), and teleconnects to the Northern Hemisphere to influence global temperature. In this study we investigate the internal climate dynamics of the ACO over the last 21 millennia using stable water isotopes frozen in ice cores from 11 Antarctic drill sites as temperature proxies. Spectral and time series analyses reveal that ACOs occurred at all 11 sites over all time periods evaluated, suggesting that the ACO encompasses all of Antarctica. From the Last Glacial Maximum through the Last Glacial Termination (LGT), ACO cycles propagated on a multicentennial time scale from the East Antarctic coastline clockwise around Antarctica in the streamline of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). The velocity of teleconnection (VT) is correlated with the geophysical characteristics of drill sites, including distance from the ocean and temperature. During the LGT, the VT to coastal sites doubled while the VT to inland sites decreased fourfold, correlated with increasing solar insolation at 65°N. These results implicate two interdependent mechanisms of teleconnection, oceanic and atmospheric, and suggest possible physical mechanisms for each. During the warmer Holocene, ACOs arrived synchronously at all drill sites examined, suggesting that the VT increased with temperature. Backward extrapolation of ACO propagation direction and velocity places its estimated geographic origin in the Southern Ocean east of Antarctica, in the region of the strongest sustained surface wind stress over any body of ocean water on Earth. ACO period is correlated with all major cycle parameters except cycle symmetry, consistent with a forced, undamped oscillation in which the driving energy affects all major cycle metrics. Cycle period and symmetry are not discernibly different for the ACO and AAO over the same time periods, suggesting that they are the same climate cycle. We postulate that the ACO/AAO is generated by relaxation oscillation of Westerly Wind velocity forced by the equator-to-pole temperature gradient and propagated regionally by identified air-sea-ice interactions.

Sedimentary record from Patagonia, southern Chile supports cosmic-impact triggering of biomass burning, climate change, and megafaunal extinctions at 12.8 ka

The Younger Dryas (YD) impact hypothesis posits that fragments of a large, disintegrating asteroid/comet struck North America, South America, Europe, and western Asia ~12,800 years ago. Multiple airbursts/impacts produced the YD boundary layer (YDB), depositing peak concentrations of platinum, high-temperature spherules, meltglass, and nanodiamonds, forming an isochronous datum at >50 sites across ~50 million km² of Earth's surface. This proposed event triggered extensive biomass burning, brief impact winter, YD climate change, and contributed to extinctions of late Pleistocene megafauna. In the most extensive investigation south of the equator, we report on a ~12,800-year-old sequence at Pilauco, Chile (~40°S), that exhibits peak YD boundary concentrations of platinum, gold, high-temperature iron- and chromium-rich spherules, and native iron particles rarely found in nature. A major peak in charcoal abundance marks an intense biomass-burning episode, synchronous with dramatic changes in vegetation, including a high-disturbance regime, seasonality in precipitation, and warmer conditions. This is anti-phased with northern-hemispheric cooling at the YD onset, whose rapidity suggests atmospheric linkage. The sudden disappearance of megafaunal remains and dung fungi in the YDB layer at Pilauco correlates with megafaunal extinctions across the Americas. The Pilauco record appears consistent with YDB impact evidence found at sites on four continents.

Phased Patagonian Ice Sheet response to Southern Hemisphere atmospheric and oceanic warming between 18 and 17 ka

The onset of deglaciation in the Southern Hemisphere mid-latitudes has been attributed to the southward transmission of climate anomalies in response to slow-down of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) during Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS-1; 18–14.6 ka). However, inferences on the response of former ice sheets to sub-millennial palaeoclimate shifts are limited by a shortage of high-resolution terrestrial archives. Here we use a ~1000-year duration, annually-resolved lake sediment record to investigate the deglacial retreat dynamics of the Lago General Carrera–Buenos Aires ice lobe (46.5°S) of the former Patagonian Ice Sheet. We attribute the onset of glacier retreat at 18.0 ± 0.14 cal ka BP to abrupt southward migration of the Southern Westerly Winds that enhanced solar radiation receipt (and ablation) at the ice sheet surface. We infer that accelerated retreat from 17.77 ± 0.13 cal ka BP represents a lagged Southern Hemisphere response to gradual ocean-atmosphere warming associated with the centennial-scale transmission of Northern Hemisphere climate anomalies through the oceanic bipolar seesaw. By 17.38 ± 0.12 cal ka BP, the glacier margin had receded into a deepening proglacial lake, instigating sustained calving losses and more rapid ice recession.

Towards a 'Sea-Level Sensitive' dynamic model: impact of island ontogeny and glacio-eustasy on global patterns of marine island biogeography

A synthetic model is presented to enlarge the evolutionary framework of the General Dynamic Model (GDM) and the Glacial Sensitive Model (GSM) of oceanic island biogeography from the terrestrial to the marine realm. The proposed 'Sea-Level Sensitive' dynamic model (SLS) of marine island biogeography integrates historical and ecological biogeography with patterns of glacio-eustasy, merging concepts from areas as diverse as taxonomy, biogeography, marine biology, volcanology, sedimentology, stratigraphy, palaeontology, geochronology and geomorphology. Fundamental to the SLS model is the dynamic variation of the littoral area of volcanic oceanic islands (defined as the area between the intertidal and the 50-m isobath) in response to sea-level oscillations driven by glacial-interglacial cycles. The following questions are considered by means of this revision: (i) what was the impact of (global) glacio-eustatic sea-level oscillations, particularly those of the Pleistocene glacial-interglacial episodes, on the littoral marine fauna and flora of volcanic oceanic islands? (ii) What are the main factors that explain the present littoral marine biodiversity on volcanic oceanic islands? (iii) How can differences in historical and ecological biogeography be reconciled, from a marine point of view? These questions are addressed by compiling the bathymetry of 11 Atlantic archipelagos/islands to obtain quantitative data regarding changes in the littoral area based on Pleistocene sea-level oscillations, from 150 thousand years ago (ka) to the present. Within the framework of a model sensitive to changing sea levels, we discuss the principal factors affecting the geographical range of marine species; the relationships between modes of larval development, dispersal strategies and geographical range; the relationships between times of speciation, modes of larval development, ecological zonation and geographical range; the influence of sea-surface temperatures and latitude on littoral marine species diversity; the effect of eustatic sea-level changes and their impact on the littoral marine biota; island marine species-area relationships; and finally, the physical effects of island ontogeny and its associated submarine topography and marine substrate on littoral biota. Based on the SLS dynamic model, we offer a number of predictions for tropical, subtropical and temperate volcanic oceanic islands on how rates of immigration, colonization, in-situ speciation, local disappearance, and extinction interact and affect the marine biodiversity around islands during glacials and interglacials, thus allowing future testing of the theory.

Examining the interglacial high-elevation refugia scenario in East Asian subtropical mountain systems with the frog species Leptobrachium liui

The effects of Quaternary climatic oscillations on the distributions of organisms in different parts of the world are not equally well understood, limiting the ability to understand the determinants of biodiversity. Compared with the mountain regions in southern Europe and southwestern North America, such effects on high-elevation species in the East Asian subtropical mountain systems located in southern and southeastern China have seldom been addressed. In this study, using Leptobrachium liui (Megophryidae), we made one of the earliest attempts to examine the interglacial high-elevation refugia scenario in these Asian mountains. Based on our current understanding of the study system, we formulated a hypothesis that these frogs of western origin were distributed more widely and continuously during glacial phases, allowing eastward dispersal, and that they are currently isolated in interglacial refugia at higher elevations. Microsatellite data and mitochondrial and nuclear sequence data were obtained with extensive sampling followed by the synthesis of phylogeographic and population genetic analyses and modeling of the species distribution. The analyses revealed a sequential eastward divergence of microsatellite clusters and gene lineages accompanied by a decline in genetic diversity. Molecular dating estimates revealed divergence events in the Pleistocene, and a reduction in local populations was inferred to have occurred at a time comparable to the end of the last glacial. Strong genetic isolation by distance reflecting a more continuous historical distribution was detected. Furthermore, environmental niche models inferred a wide planar distribution during the last glacial maximum, providing further support for the hypothesis.

How will climate novelty influence ecological forecasts? Using the Quaternary to assess future reliability

Future climates are projected to be highly novel relative to recent climates. Climate novelty challenges models that correlate ecological patterns to climate variables and then use these relationships to forecast ecological responses to future climate change. Here, we quantify the magnitude and ecological significance of future climate novelty by comparing it to novel climates over the past 21,000 years in North America. We then use relationships between model performance and climate novelty derived from the fossil pollen record from eastern North America to estimate the expected decrease in predictive skill of ecological forecasting models as future climate novelty increases. We show that, in the high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5) and by late 21st century, future climate novelty is similar to or higher than peak levels of climate novelty over the last 21,000 years. The accuracy of ecological forecasting models is projected to decline steadily over the coming decades in response to increasing climate novelty, although models that incorporate co-occurrences among species may retain somewhat higher predictive skill. In addition to quantifying future climate novelty in the context of late Quaternary climate change, this work underscores the challenges of making reliable forecasts to an increasingly novel future, while highlighting the need to assess potential avenues for improvement, such as increased reliance on geological analogs for future novel climates and improving existing models by pooling data through time and incorporating assemblage-level information.

Lake Tauca highstand (Heinrich Stadial 1a) driven by a southward shift of the Bolivian High

Heinrich events are characterized by worldwide climate modifications. Over the Altiplano endorheic basin (high tropical Andes), the second half of Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1a) was coeval with the highstand of the giant paleolake Tauca. However, the atmospheric mechanisms underlying this wet event are still unknown at the regional to global scale. We use cosmic-ray exposure ages of glacial landforms to reconstruct the spatial variability in the equilibrium line altitude of the HS1a Altiplano glaciers. By combining glacier and lake modeling, we reconstruct a precipitation map for the HS1a period. Our results show that paleoprecipitation mainly increased along the Eastern Cordillera, whereas the southwestern region of the basin remained relatively dry. This pattern indicates a southward expansion of the easterlies, which is interpreted as being a consequence of a southward shift of the Bolivian High. The results provide a new understanding of atmospheric teleconnections during HS1 and of rainfall redistribution in a changing climate.

3D seismic evidence of buried iceberg ploughmarks from the mid-Norwegian continental margin reveals largely persistent North Atlantic Current through the Quaternary

Over 7500 buried linear and curvilinear depressions interpreted as iceberg ploughmarks were identified within the Quaternary Naust Formation from an extensive three-dimensional seismic dataset that covers ~ 40,000 km² of the mid-Norwegian continental margin. The morphology and net orientation of ploughmarks were mapped and analysed. These features are up to 28 km long, 700 m wide and are incised up to 31 m deep. On average, ploughmarks are incised 5 m deep, with median width of 185 m and median lengths ranging from 1.2 to 2.7 km for individual palaeo-surfaces. Width to depth ratio ranges from 8:1 to 400:1 and is on average 36:1. The presence of ploughmarks buried deeply within some palaeo-slope surfaces implies the occasional presence of very large icebergs since the middle Quaternary, suggesting that thick ice-sheet margins with fast-flowing ice streams were present in order to calve icebergs of such dimensions into the Norwegian Sea. The wide geographical distribution of ploughmarks suggests unrestricted iceberg drift and an open Norwegian Sea during the periods of iceberg calving since the early Quaternary. Ploughmark trajectory analysis demonstrates that the ocean current circulation, now dominated by the northeasterly flowing Norwegian Atlantic Current (NwAC), has largely persisted throughout the Quaternary. Despite the overall strikingly consistent pattern of iceberg drift, ploughmark mapping also shows evidence for short-lived NwAC reductions possibly related to major phases of iceberg discharge and/or meltwater pulses from the Fennoscandian Ice Sheet during the middle and late Quaternary.

Warm summers during the Younger Dryas cold reversal

The Younger Dryas (YD) cold reversal interrupts the warming climate of the deglaciation with global climatic impacts. The sudden cooling is typically linked to an abrupt slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in response to meltwater discharges from ice sheets. However, inconsistencies regarding the YD-response of European summer temperatures have cast doubt whether the concept provides a sufficient explanation. Here we present results from a high-resolution global climate simulation together with a new July temperature compilation based on plant indicator species and show that European summers remain warm during the YD. Our climate simulation provides robust physical evidence that atmospheric blocking of cold westerly winds over Fennoscandia is a key mechanism counteracting the cooling impact of an AMOC-slowdown during summer. Despite the persistence of short warm summers, the YD is dominated by a shift to a continental climate with extreme winter to spring cooling and short growing seasons.

Mechanisms causing the Younger Dryas cold reversal have been questioned by inconsistencies between proxy and modelling results. Here, the authors show that the concept of a strong North Atlantic Ocean cooling event as major driver is consistent with warm European summers caused by intensified atmospheric blocking.

Cultural learning and the Clovis colonization of North America

The timing of the earliest colonization of North America is debatable, but what is not at issue is the point of origin of the early colonists: Humans entered the continent from Beringia and then made their way south along or near the Pacific Coast and/or through a corridor that ran between the Cordilleran and Laurentide ice sheets in western North America. At some point, they abandoned their Arctic-based tool complex for one more adapted to an entirely different environment. That new techno-complex is termed "Clovis"; its dispersal allows us to examine, at a fine scale, how colonization processes played out across a vast continent that at the time had, at best, a very small resident population. Clovis has figured prominently in American archeology since the first Clovis points were identified in eastern New Mexico in the 1930s. However, the successful marriage of learning models grounded in evolutionary theory and modern analytical methods that began roughly a decade ago has begun to pay significant dividends in terms of what we know about the rapid spread of human groups across the last sizable landmass to witness human occupation.

Comparing Climate Sensitivity, Past and Present

Climate sensitivity represents the global mean temperature change caused by changes in the radiative balance of climate; it is studied for both present/future (actuo) and past (paleo) climate variations, with the former based on instrumental records and/or various types of model simulations. Paleo-estimates are often considered informative for assessments of actuo-climate change caused by anthropogenic greenhouse forcing, but this utility remains debated because of concerns about the impacts of uncertainties, assumptions, and incomplete knowledge about controlling mechanisms in the dynamic climate system, with its multiple interacting feedbacks and their potential dependence on the climate background state. This is exacerbated by the need to assess actuo- and paleoclimate sensitivity over different timescales, with different drivers, and with different (data and/or model) limitations. Here, we visualize these impacts with idealized representations that graphically illustrate the nature of time-dependent actuo- and paleoclimate sensitivity estimates, evaluating the strengths, weaknesses, agreements, and differences of the two approaches. We also highlight priorities for future research to improve the use of paleo-estimates in evaluations of current climate change.

Abrupt climate changes during Termination III in Southern Europe

The Late Quaternary glacial-interglacial transitions represent the highest amplitude climate changes over the last million years. Unraveling the sequence of events and feedbacks at Termination III (T-III), including potential abrupt climate reversals similar to those of the last Termination, has been particularly challenging due to the scarcity of well-dated records worldwide. Here, we present speleothem data from southern Europe covering the interval from 262.7 to 217.9 kyBP, including the transition from marine isotope stage (MIS) 8 to MIS 7e. High-resolution δ¹³C, δ¹⁸O, and Mg/Ca profiles reveal major millennial-scale changes in aridity manifested in changing water availability and vegetation productivity. uranium-thorium dates provide a solid chronology for two millennial-scale events (S8.1 and S8.2) which, compared with the last two terminations, has some common features with Heinrich 1 and Heinrich 2 in Termination I (T-I).

Origin, paleoecology, and extirpation of bluebirds and crossbills in the Bahamas across the last glacial-interglacial transition

On low islands or island groups such as the Bahamas, surrounded by shallow oceans, Quaternary glacial-interglacial changes in climate and sea level had major effects on terrestrial plant and animal communities. We examine the paleoecology of two species of songbirds (Passeriformes) recorded as Late Pleistocene fossils on the Bahamian island of Abaco-the Eastern bluebird (Sialia sialis) and Hispaniolan crossbill (Loxia megaplaga). Each species lives today only outside of the Bahamian Archipelago, with S. sialis occurring in North and Central America and L. megaplaga endemic to Hispaniola. Unrecorded in the Holocene fossil record of Abaco, both of these species probably colonized Abaco during the last glacial interval but were eliminated when the island became much smaller, warmer, wetter, and more isolated during the last glacial-interglacial transition from ∼15 to 9 ka. Today's warming temperatures and rising sea levels, although not as great in magnitude as those that took place from ∼15 to 9 ka, are occurring rapidly and may contribute to considerable biotic change on islands by acting in synergy with direct human impacts.

Quantifying phenotype-environment matching in the protected Kerry spotted slug (Mollusca: Gastropoda) using digital photography: exposure to UV radiation determines cryptic colour morphs

BACKGROUND

Animal colours and patterns commonly play a role in reducing detection by predators, social signalling or increasing survival in response to some other environmental pressure. Different colour morphs can evolve within populations exposed to different levels of predation or environmental stress and in some cases can arise within the lifetime of an individual as the result of phenotypic plasticity. Skin pigmentation is variable for many terrestrial slugs (Mollusca: Gastropoda), both between and within species. The Kerry spotted slug Geomalacus maculosus Allman, an EU protected species, exhibits two distinct phenotypes: brown individuals occur in forested habitats whereas black animals live in open habitats such as blanket bog. Both colour forms are spotted and each type strongly resembles the substrate of their habitat, suggesting that G. maculosus possesses camouflage.

RESULTS

Analysis of digital images of wild slugs demonstrated that each colour morph is strongly and positively correlated with the colour properties of the background in each habitat but not with the substrate of the alternative habitats, suggesting habitat-specific crypsis. Experiments were undertaken on laboratory-reared juvenile slugs to investigate whether ultraviolet (UV) radiation or diet could induce colour change. Exposure to UV radiation induced the black (bog) phenotype whereas slugs reared in darkness did not change colour. Diet had no effect on juvenile colouration. Examination of skin tissue from specimens exposed to either UV or dark treatments demonstrated that UV-exposed slugs had significantly higher concentrations of black pigment in their epithelium.

CONCLUSIONS

These results suggest that colour dimorphism in G. maculosus is an example of phenotypic plasticity which is explained by differential exposure to UV radiation. Each resulting colour morph provides incidental camouflage against the different coloured substrate of each habitat. This, to our knowledge, is the first documented example of colour change in response to UV radiation in a terrestrial mollusc. Pigmentation appears to be correlated with a number of behavioural traits in G. maculosus, and we suggest that understanding melanisation in other terrestrial molluscs may be useful in the study of pestiferous and invasive species. The implications of colour change for G. maculosus conservation are also discussed.

Human-induced changes in the distribution of rainfall

A likely consequence of global warming will be the redistribution of Earth's rain belts, affecting water availability for many of Earth's inhabitants. We consider three ways in which planetary warming might influence the global distribution of precipitation. The first possibility is that rainfall in the tropics will increase and that the subtropics and mid-latitudes will become more arid. A second possibility is that Earth's thermal equator, around which the planet's rain belts and dry zones are organized, will migrate northward. This northward shift will be a consequence of the Northern Hemisphere, with its large continental area, warming faster than the Southern Hemisphere, with its large oceanic area. A third possibility is that both of these scenarios will play out simultaneously. We review paleoclimate evidence suggesting that (i) the middle latitudes were wetter during the last glacial maximum, (ii) a northward shift of the thermal equator attended the abrupt Bølling-Allerød climatic transition ~14.6 thousand years ago, and (iii) a southward shift occurred during the more recent Little Ice Age. We also inspect trends in seasonal surface heating between the hemispheres over the past several decades. From these clues, we predict that there will be a seasonally dependent response in rainfall patterns to global warming. During boreal summer, in which the rate of recent warming has been relatively uniform between the hemispheres, wet areas will get wetter and dry regions will become drier. During boreal winter, rain belts and drylands will expand northward in response to differential heating between the hemispheres.