1
|
Black BA, Pearl JK, Pearson CL, Pringle PT, Frank DC, Page MT, Buckley BM, Cook ER, Harley GL, King KJ, Hughes JF, Reynolds DJ, Sherrod BL. A multifault earthquake threat for the Seattle metropolitan region revealed by mass tree mortality. SCIENCE ADVANCES 2023; 9:eadh4973. [PMID: 37756412 PMCID: PMC10530078 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.adh4973] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/08/2023] [Accepted: 08/23/2023] [Indexed: 09/29/2023]
Abstract
Compound earthquakes involving simultaneous ruptures along multiple faults often define a region's upper threshold of maximum magnitude. Yet, the potential for linked faulting remains poorly understood given the infrequency of these events in the historic era. Geological records provide longer perspectives, although temporal uncertainties are too broad to clearly pinpoint single multifault events. Here, we use dendrochronological dating and a cosmogenic radiation pulse to constrain the death dates of earthquake-killed trees along two adjacent fault zones near Seattle, Washington to within a 6-month period between the 923 and 924 CE growing seasons. Our narrow constraints conclusively show linked rupturing that occurred either as a single composite earthquake of estimated magnitude 7.8 or as a closely spaced double earthquake sequence with estimated magnitudes of 7.5 and 7.3. These scenarios, which are not recognized in current hazard models, increase the maximum earthquake size needed for seismic preparedness and engineering design within the Puget Sound region of >4 million residents.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Bryan A. Black
- Laboratory of Tree Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85701, USA
| | - Jessie K. Pearl
- U.S. Geological Survey Earthquake Science Center, Seattle, WA 98195, USA
| | | | | | - David C. Frank
- Laboratory of Tree Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85701, USA
| | - Morgan T. Page
- U.S. Geological Survey Earthquake Science Center, Pasadena, CA 91106, USA
| | - Brendan M. Buckley
- Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY 10964, USA
| | - Edward R. Cook
- Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY 10964, USA
| | - Grant L. Harley
- Department of Earth and Spatial Sciences, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID 83843, USA
| | - Karen J. King
- Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY 10964, USA
| | - Jonathan F. Hughes
- School of Land Use and Environmental Change, University of the Fraser Valley, Abbotsford, BC V2S 7M8, Canada
| | - David J. Reynolds
- Centre for Geography and Environmental Science, University of Exeter, Penryn Campus, Penryn, Cornwall TR10 9FE, UK
| | - Brian L. Sherrod
- U.S. Geological Survey Earthquake Science Center, Seattle, WA 98195, USA
| |
Collapse
|
2
|
Tsunami records of the last 8000 years in the Andaman Island, India, from mega and large earthquakes: Insights on recurrence interval. Sci Rep 2019; 9:18463. [PMID: 31804532 PMCID: PMC6895190 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-019-54750-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/21/2019] [Accepted: 11/18/2019] [Indexed: 11/08/2022] Open
Abstract
As many as seven tsunamis from the past 8000 years are evidenced by sand sheets that rest on buried wetland soils at Badabalu, southern Andaman Island, along northern part of the fault rupture of the giant 2004 Aceh-Andaman earthquake. The uppermost of these deposits represents the 2004 tsunami. Underlying deposits likely correspond to historical tsunamis of 1881, 1762, and 1679 CE, and provide evidence for prehistoric tsunamis in 1300-1400 CE, in 2000-3000 and 3020-1780 BCE, and before 5600-5300 BCE. The sequence includes an unexplained hiatus of two or three millennia ending around 1400 CE, which could be attributed to accelerated erosion due to Relative Sea-Level (RSL) fall at ~3500 BP. A tsunami in 1300-1400, comparable to the one in 2004, was previously identified geologically on other Indian Ocean shores. The tsunamis assigned to 1679, 1762, and 1881, by contrast, were more nearly confined to the northeast Indian Ocean. Sources have not been determined for the three earliest of the inferred tsunamis. We suggest a recurrence of 420-750 years for mega-earthquakes having different source, and a shorter interval of 80-120 years for large magnitude earthquakes.
Collapse
|
3
|
Rubin CM, Horton BP, Sieh K, Pilarczyk JE, Daly P, Ismail N, Parnell AC. Highly variable recurrence of tsunamis in the 7,400 years before the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. Nat Commun 2017; 8:16019. [PMID: 28722009 PMCID: PMC5524937 DOI: 10.1038/ncomms16019] [Citation(s) in RCA: 95] [Impact Index Per Article: 13.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/10/2016] [Accepted: 05/24/2017] [Indexed: 12/04/2022] Open
Abstract
The devastating 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami caught millions of coastal residents and the scientific community off-guard. Subsequent research in the Indian Ocean basin has identified prehistoric tsunamis, but the timing and recurrence intervals of such events are uncertain. Here we present an extraordinary 7,400 year stratigraphic sequence of prehistoric tsunami deposits from a coastal cave in Aceh, Indonesia. This record demonstrates that at least 11 prehistoric tsunamis struck the Aceh coast between 7,400 and 2,900 years ago. The average time period between tsunamis is about 450 years with intervals ranging from a long, dormant period of over 2,000 years, to multiple tsunamis within the span of a century. Although there is evidence that the likelihood of another tsunamigenic earthquake in Aceh province is high, these variable recurrence intervals suggest that long dormant periods may follow Sunda megathrust ruptures as large as that of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. Tsunamis can be an extremely hazardous event, but understanding their occurrence through past records remains challenging. Here, the authors document tsunami occurrence from a 7,400 year old record of tsunami deposits in a cave in Indonesia, helping us to reconstruct the frequency of earthquakes in the region.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Charles M Rubin
- Earth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological University, 639798 Singapore, Singapore.,Asian School of the Environment, Nanyang Technological University, 639798 Singapore, Singapore
| | - Benjamin P Horton
- Earth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological University, 639798 Singapore, Singapore.,Asian School of the Environment, Nanyang Technological University, 639798 Singapore, Singapore.,Department of Marine and Coastal Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, New Jersey 08901, USA
| | - Kerry Sieh
- Earth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological University, 639798 Singapore, Singapore.,Asian School of the Environment, Nanyang Technological University, 639798 Singapore, Singapore
| | - Jessica E Pilarczyk
- Division of Marine Science, University of Southern Mississippi, Stennis Space Center, Hattiesburg, Mississippi 39529, USA
| | - Patrick Daly
- Earth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological University, 639798 Singapore, Singapore
| | - Nazli Ismail
- Department of Physics/Geophysics, Faculty of Mathematic and Natural Sciences, Syiah Kuala University, Banda Aceh 23111, Indonesia
| | - Andrew C Parnell
- School of Mathematics and Statistics, Insight Centre for Data Analytics, University College Dublin, Belfield, Dublin 4 D04 V1W8, Ireland
| |
Collapse
|
4
|
Ecological implications of extreme events: footprints of the 2010 earthquake along the Chilean coast. PLoS One 2012; 7:e35348. [PMID: 22567101 PMCID: PMC3342270 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0035348] [Citation(s) in RCA: 36] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/02/2011] [Accepted: 03/14/2012] [Indexed: 12/05/2022] Open
Abstract
Deciphering ecological effects of major catastrophic events such as earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, storms and fires, requires rapid interdisciplinary efforts often hampered by a lack of pre-event data. Using results of intertidal surveys conducted shortly before and immediately after Chile's 2010 Mw 8.8 earthquake along the entire rupture zone (ca. 34–38°S), we provide the first quantification of earthquake and tsunami effects on sandy beach ecosystems. Our study incorporated anthropogenic coastal development as a key design factor. Ecological responses of beach ecosystems were strongly affected by the magnitude of land-level change. Subsidence along the northern rupture segment combined with tsunami-associated disturbance and drowned beaches. In contrast, along the co-seismically uplifted southern rupture, beaches widened and flattened increasing habitat availability. Post-event changes in abundance and distribution of mobile intertidal invertebrates were not uniform, varying with land-level change, tsunami height and coastal development. On beaches where subsidence occurred, intertidal zones and their associated species disappeared. On some beaches, uplift of rocky sub-tidal substrate eliminated low intertidal sand beach habitat for ecologically important species. On others, unexpected interactions of uplift with man-made coastal armouring included restoration of upper and mid-intertidal habitat seaward of armouring followed by rapid colonization of mobile crustaceans typical of these zones formerly excluded by constraints imposed by the armouring structures. Responses of coastal ecosystems to major earthquakes appear to vary strongly with land-level change, the mobility of the biota and shore type. Our results show that interactions of extreme events with human-altered shorelines can produce surprising ecological outcomes, and suggest these complex responses to landscape alteration can leave lasting footprints in coastal ecosystems.
Collapse
|
5
|
Reicherter K, Becker-Heidmann P. Tsunami deposits in the western Mediterranean: remains of the 1522 Almerı́a earthquake? ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2009. [DOI: 10.1144/sp316.14] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/04/2022]
Abstract
AbstractShallow drilling in the lagoon of the Cabo de Gata area proved sedimentary evidence for a palaeo-tsunami along that part of the Spanish Mediterranean coast. Several coarse-grained intervals form fining-up and thinning-up sequences that are interpreted as tsunamites. Inland-extending sand sheets are used to identify tsunamigenic inundations. Other indicative features found are erosive bases, rip-up clasts, broken shells of bivalves and benthic/planktic foraminifera. The coarse-grained intervals consist of up to three sequences separated from each other by a silty mud drape. These intervals are interpreted as deposits of a tsunami train and correspond to three individual waves. Radiocarbon dating reveals evidence that these layers can be ascribed to deposition during the 1522 Almerı́a earthquake.The 1522 Almerı́a earthquake (M>6.5) affected large areas in the western Mediterranean and caused more than 1000 casualties. The epicentral area was offshore in the Gulf of Almerı́a (southern Spain) along the Carboneras Fault Zone and seismic shaking triggered submarine slides in the Gulf of Almerı́a, which may have caused tsunami waves.We have also found another intercalation of tsunamites downhole, which are interpreted as either an expression of repeated earthquake activity or tsunami-like waves induced by submarine slides triggered by seismic shaking in the Gulf of Almerı́a. Our evidence suggests a definite tsunami potential and hazard for offshore active and seismogenic faults in the western Mediterranean region.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Klaus Reicherter
- Institute of Neotectonics and Natural Hazards, RWTH Aachen University, Lochnerstr. 4-20, 52056 Aachen, Germany
| | - Peter Becker-Heidmann
- Institut für Bodenkunde, Universität Hamburg, Allende-Platz 2, 20146 Hamburg, Germany
| |
Collapse
|
6
|
Monecke K, Finger W, Klarer D, Kongko W, McAdoo BG, Moore AL, Sudrajat SU. A 1,000-year sediment record of tsunami recurrence in northern Sumatra. Nature 2008. [DOI: 10.1038/nature07374] [Citation(s) in RCA: 235] [Impact Index Per Article: 14.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
|
7
|
Booth DB, Troost KG, Clague JJ, Waitt RB. The Cordilleran Ice Sheet. THE QUATERNARY PERIOD IN THE UNITED STATES 2003. [DOI: 10.1016/s1571-0866(03)01002-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 55] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/04/2023]
|
8
|
Mazzotti S. Current tectonics of northern Cascadia from a decade of GPS measurements. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2003. [DOI: 10.1029/2003jb002653] [Citation(s) in RCA: 72] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
|
9
|
Bondevik S, Mangerud J, Dawson S, Dawson A, Lohne Ø. Record-breaking height for 8000-year-old tsunami in the North Atlantic. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2003. [DOI: 10.1029/2003eo310001] [Citation(s) in RCA: 111] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
|
10
|
Wave devastated Seattle area. Nature 2002. [DOI: 10.1038/news021021-10] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/08/2022]
|
11
|
Brocher TM, Parsons T, Blakely RJ, Christensen NI, Fisher MA, Wells RE. Upper crustal structure in Puget Lowland, Washington: Results from the 1998 Seismic Hazards Investigation in Puget Sound. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2001. [DOI: 10.1029/2001jb000154] [Citation(s) in RCA: 73] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
|
12
|
Fisher MA, Brocher TM, Hyndman RD, Trehu AM, Weaver CS, Creager KC, Crosson RS, Parsons T, Cooper AK, Mosher D, Spence G, Zelt BC, Hammer PT, ten Brink U, Pratt TL, Miller KC, Childs JR, Cochrane GR, Chopra S, Walia R. Seismic survey probes urban earthquake hazards in Pacific Northwest. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 1999. [DOI: 10.1029/99eo00011] [Citation(s) in RCA: 23] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
|
13
|
Nelson AR, Shennan I, Long AJ. Identifying coseismic subsidence in tidal-wetland stratigraphic sequences at the Cascadia subduction zone of western North America. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 1996. [DOI: 10.1029/95jb01051] [Citation(s) in RCA: 155] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
|
14
|
Mathewes RW, Clague JJ. Detection of Large Prehistoric Earthquakes in the Pacific Northwest by Microfossil Analysis. Science 1994; 264:688-91. [PMID: 17737954 DOI: 10.1126/science.264.5159.688] [Citation(s) in RCA: 41] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/03/2022]
Abstract
Geologic and palynological evidence for rapid sea level change approximately 3400 and approximately 2000 carbon-14 years ago (3600 and 1900 calendar years ago) has been found at sites up to 110 kilometers apart in southwestern British Columbia. Submergence on southern Vancouver Island and slight emergence on the mainland during the older event are consistent with a great (magnitude M >/= 8) earthquake on the Cascadia subduction zone. The younger event is characterized by submergence throughout the region and may also record a plate-boundary earthquake or a very large crustal or intraplate earthquake. Microfossil analysis can detect small amounts of coseismic uplift and subsidence that leave little or no lithostratigraphic signature.
Collapse
|
15
|
|