Mechanism Diversity of the Loma Prieta Aftershocks and the Mechanics of Mainshock-Aftershock Interaction

Coevolving early afterslip and aftershock signatures of a San Andreas fault rupture

Large earthquakes often lead to transient deformation and enhanced seismic activity, with their fastest evolution occurring at the early, ephemeral post-rupture period. Here, we investigate this elusive phase using geophysical observations from the 2004 moment magnitude 6.0 Parkfield, California, earthquake. We image continuously evolving afterslip, along with aftershocks, on the San Andreas fault over a minutes-to-days postseismic time span. Our results reveal a multistage scenario, including immediate onset of afterslip following tens-of-seconds-long coseismic shaking, short-lived slip reversals within minutes, expanding afterslip within hours, and slip migration between subparallel fault strands within days. The early afterslip and associated stress changes appear synchronized with local aftershock rates, with increasing afterslip often preceding larger aftershocks, suggesting the control of afterslip on fine-scale aftershock behavior. We interpret complex shallow processes as dynamic signatures of a three-dimensional fault-zone structure. These findings highlight important roles of aseismic source processes and structural factors in seismicity evolution, offering potential prospects for improving aftershock forecasts.

Twin ruptures grew to build up the giant 2011 Tohoku, Japan, earthquake

The 2011 Tohoku megathrust earthquake had an unexpected size for the region. To image the earthquake rupture in detail, we applied a novel backprojection technique to waveforms from local accelerometer networks. The earthquake began as a small-size twin rupture, slowly propagating mainly updip and triggering the break of a larger-size asperity at shallower depths, resulting in up to 50 m slip and causing high-amplitude tsunami waves. For a long time the rupture remained in a 100–150 km wide slab segment delimited by oceanic fractures, before propagating further to the southwest. The occurrence of large slip at shallow depths likely favored the propagation across contiguous slab segments and contributed to build up a giant earthquake. The lateral variations in the slab geometry may act as geometrical or mechanical barriers finally controlling the earthquake rupture nucleation, evolution and arrest.

Strain waves, earthquakes, slow earthquakes, and afterslip in the framework of the Frenkel-Kontorova model

The one-dimensional Frenkel-Kontorova (FK) model, well known from the theory of dislocations in crystal materials, is applied to the simulation of the process of nonelastic stress propagation along transform faults. Dynamic parameters of plate boundary earthquakes as well as slow earthquakes and afterslip are quantitatively described, including propagation velocity along the strike, plate boundary velocity during and after the strike, stress drop, displacement, extent of the rupture zone, and spatiotemporal distribution of stress and strain. The three fundamental speeds of plate movement, earthquake migration, and seismic waves are shown to be connected in framework of the continuum FK model. The magnitude of the strain wave velocity is a strong (almost exponential) function of accumulated stress or strain. It changes from a few km/s during earthquakes to a few dozen km per day, month, or year during afterslip and interearthquake periods. Results of the earthquake parameter calculation based on real data are in reasonable agreement with measured values. The distributions of aftershocks in this model are consistent with the Omori law for temporal distribution and a 1/r for the spatial distributions.

Diffusion of epicenters of earthquake aftershocks, Omori's law, and generalized continuous-time random walk models

The epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model is a simple stochastic process modeling seismicity, based on the two best-established empirical laws, the Omori law (power-law decay approximately 1/t(1+theta) of seismicity after an earthquake) and Gutenberg-Richter law (power-law distribution of earthquake energies). In order to describe also the space distribution of seismicity, we use in addition a power-law distribution approximately 1/r(1+mu) of distances between triggered and triggering earthquakes. The ETAS model has been studied for the last two decades to model real seismicity catalogs and to obtain short-term probabilistic forecasts. Here, we present a mapping between the ETAS model and a class of CTRW (continuous time random walk) models, based on the identification of their corresponding master equations. This mapping allows us to use the wealth of results previously obtained on anomalous diffusion of CTRW. After translating into the relevant variable for the ETAS model, we provide a classification of the different regimes of diffusion of seismic activity triggered by a mainshock. Specifically, we derive the relation between the average distance between aftershocks and the mainshock as a function of the time from the mainshock and of the joint probability distribution of the times and locations of the aftershocks. The different regimes are fully characterized by the two exponents theta and mu. Our predictions are checked by careful numerical simulations. We stress the distinction between the "bare" Omori law describing the seismic rate activated directly by a mainshock and the "renormalized" Omori law taking into account all possible cascades from mainshocks to aftershocks of aftershock of aftershock, and so on. In particular, we predict that seismic diffusion or subdiffusion occurs and should be observable only when the observed Omori exponent is less than 1, because this signals the operation of the renormalization of the bare Omori law, also at the origin of seismic diffusion in the ETAS model. We present predictions and insights provided by the ETAS to CTRW mapping which suggest different ways for studying seismic catalogs. Finally, we discuss the present evidence for our predicted subdiffusion of seismicity triggered by a main shock, stressing the caveats and limitations of previous empirical works.