The spatial footprint of injection wells in a global compilation of induced earthquake sequences

Stochastic modeling of injection induced seismicity based on the continuous time random walk model

The spatiotemporal evolution of earthquakes induced by fluid injections into the subsurface can be erratic owing to the complexity of the physical process. To effectively mitigate the associated hazard and to draft appropriate regulatory strategies, a detailed understanding of how induced seismicity may evolve is needed. In this work, we build on the well-established continuous-time random walk (CTRW) theory to develop a purely stochastic framework that can delineate the essential characteristics of this process. We use data from the 2003 and 2012 hydraulic stimulations in the Cooper Basin geothermal field that induced thousands of microearthquakes to test and demonstrate the applicability of the model. Induced seismicity in the Cooper Basin shows all the characteristics of subdiffusion, as indicated by the fractional order power-law growth of the mean square displacement with time and broad waiting-time distributions with algebraic tails. We further use an appropriate master equation and the time-fractional diffusion equation to map the spatiotemporal evolution of seismicity. The results show good agreement between the model and the data regarding the peak earthquake concentration close to the two injection wells and the stretched exponential relaxation of seismicity with distance, suggesting that the CTRW model can be efficiently incorporated into induced seismicity forecasting.

Spatiotemporal evolution of seismicity during the cyclic operation of the Hutubi underground gas storage, Xinjiang, China

Underground gas storages (UGSs) are important large-scale industrial facilities used to bridge the gap between natural gas consumption and supply. The cyclic operation of the UGS may alter the subsurface stresses and local seismicity. We examined seismicity around the Hutubi UGS from 2011 to 2019 using the matched filter technique (MFT) and double-difference location methods. More than 1300 earthquakes were detected with seismicity around the UGS showing a remarkable increase since the start of its operation and showing a clear correlation to seasonal gas production. About 684 detected earthquakes were located, most of them occurred within 6 km of the reservoir. The events can be grouped into two clusters. Both clusters initiated around the gas pressure boundary. The first cluster extinct after the first injection period. While the second cluster diffused upward along a pre-existing fault. We speculate that strain localization caused by non-uniform gas injection contributes to the initiation of seismicity clusters around the UGS, and the trapped crude oil/gas played an important role in the migration of the second surge. The revealed seismicity pattern contributes to a better understanding of the mechanism of induced seismic events and emphasizes the importance of seismic monitoring in the UGS region.

An Assessment of the Net Fluid Balance in the Alberta Basin

Net fluid balance in the Alberta Basin has been negative over the last 60 years because extensive fluid production has consistently exceeded injection during this period. However, future gigaton-scale carbon sequestration, among other activities, can result in future cumulative fluid injection exceeding extraction (i.e., a positive net fluid balance). The in-situ net fluid balance (i.e., total fluids produced minus total fluids injected) in this basin over the period 1960–2020 shows that a liquids deficit of 4.53 × 109 m3 and a gas deficit of 6.05 × 1012 m3 currently exist. However, fluid deficits are more significant in the upper stratigraphic intervals (located more than 1 km above the Precambrian Basement) than in the stratigraphic intervals located within 1 km of the Precambrian Basement in most geographic regions. This observation indicates that greater sustainable injection capacity for large-scale fluid injection may exist in the upper stratigraphic intervals (located at more than 1 km above the Precambrian Basement), reducing the potential for generating induced seismicity of concern. Additionally, while fluid depletion rates consistently increased over most of the last 60 years in the Alberta Basin, this trend appears to have changed over the past few years. Such analysis of regional net fluid balance and trends may be useful in assessing regional sustainable fluid storage capacity and managing induced seismicity hazards.

Changes in Fault Slip Potential Due to Water Injection in the Rongcheng Deep Geothermal Reservoir, Xiong’an New Area, North China

The Xiong’an New Area is abundant in geothermal resources due to its unique geological structure. To address whether large-scale deep geothermal exploitation will induce a fault slip, we first determined the initial in situ stress field using shallow (~4000 m) in situ stress measurements from the North China plain. After characterizing the in situ stress field, we analyzed the initial stability of the main active faults in the sedimentary strata of the Rongcheng deep geothermal reservoir based on the Mohr–Coulomb failure criteria. Assuming that this area will be subjected to forty years of continuous fluid injection, we calculated the excess pore pressure in the deep geothermal reservoir and, subsequently, estimated the fault slip potential of the main active faults in this region from 2021 to 2060. Our results indicated that both the in situ stress field in the shallow crust of the Xiong’an New Area and the Middle-Late Pleistocene active faults will initially maintain a stable state. With constant fluid injection for forty years at six geothermal wells in the Rongcheng deep geothermal reservoir, the maximum superposed excess pore pressure at a single well is 18 MPa; this excess pore pressure value impacts the stress state of faults within 8 km of the well location. These pore pressure perturbations heavily impact the F5-10, F5-11, and F9-2 segments of the Rongcheng uplift boundary fault, with FSP values of 92%, 23%, and 47% in 2060, respectively. Porosity exacts little impact on the fault slip potential on the boundary fault segments of F5-10 and F9-2 in the Rongcheng deep geothermal reservoir, while an enhanced permeability can weaken the FSP values for these faults. The predicted maximum moment magnitude of an induced earthquake due to continuous injection of forty years can be up to Mw 5.0 with a 5% fluid loss in the Rongcheng deep geothermal reservoir. Long-term water injection may increase the ambient thermoelastic stress to the point where faults in a critical (or subcritical) stress state become unstable. The results can provide a reference for geothermal development in terms of injection rate and locations of geothermal wells.

Permeability-controlled migration of induced seismicity to deeper depths near Venus in North Texas

Migration of seismic events to deeper depths along basement faults over time has been observed in the wastewater injection sites, which can be correlated spatially and temporally to the propagation or retardation of pressure fronts and corresponding poroelastic response to given operation history. The seismicity rate model has been suggested as a physical indicator for the potential of earthquake nucleation along faults by quantifying poroelastic response to multiple well operations. Our field-scale model indicates that migrating patterns of 2015–2018 seismicity observed near Venus, TX are likely attributed to spatio-temporal evolution of Coulomb stressing rate constrained by the fault permeability. Even after reducing injection volumes since 2015, pore pressure continues to diffuse and steady transfer of elastic energy to the deep fault zone increases stressing rate consistently that can induce more frequent earthquakes at large distance scales. Sensitivity tests with variation in fault permeability show that (1) slow diffusion along a low-permeability fault limits earthquake nucleation near the injection interval or (2) rapid relaxation of pressure buildup within a high-permeability fault, caused by reducing injection volumes, may mitigate the seismic potential promptly.

A Hydrofracturing-Triggered Earthquake Occurred Three Years after the Stimulation

Hydrofracturing, used for shale gas exploitation, may induce felt, even damaging earthquakes. On 15 June 2019, an Mw2.8 earthquake occurred, spatially correlated with the location of earlier exploratory hydrofracturing operations for shale gas in Wysin in Poland. However, this earthquake was atypical. Hydrofracturing-triggered seismicity mainly occurs during stimulation; occasionally, it continues a few months after completion of the stimulation. In Wysin, there were only two weaker events during two-month hydrofracturing and then 35 months of seismic silence until the mentioned earthquake occurred. The Wysin site is in Gdańsk Pomerania broader region, located on the very weakly seismically active Precambrian Platform. The historical documents, covering 1000 years, report no natural earthquakes in Gdańsk Pomerania. We conclude, therefore, that despite the never observed before that long lag time after stimulation, the Mw2.8 earthquake was triggered by hydrofracturing. It is possible that its unusually late occurrence in relation to the time of its triggering technological activity was caused by changes in stresses due to time-dependent deformation of reservoir shales. The Wysin earthquake determines a new time horizon for the effect of HF on the stress state, which can lead to triggering earthquakes. Time-dependent deformation and its induced stress changes should be considered in shall gas reservoir exploitation plans.

Projecting seismicity induced by complex alterations of underground stresses with applications to geothermal systems

Seismicity associated with subsurface operations is a major societal concern. It is therefore critical to improve predictions of the induced seismic hazard. Current statistical approaches account for the physics of pore pressure increase only. Here, we present a novel mathematical model that generalises adopted statistics for use in arbitrary injection/production protocols and applies to arbitrary physical processes. In our model, seismicity is driven by a normalised integral over the spatial reservoir volume of induced variations in frictional Coulomb stress, which-combined with the seismogenic index-provides a dimensionless proxy of the induced seismic hazard. Our model incorporates the classical pressure diffusion based and poroelastic seismogenic index models as special cases. Applying our approach to modeling geothermal systems, we find that seismicity rates are sensitive to imposed fluid-pressure rates, temperature variations, and tectonic conditions. We further demonstrate that a controlled injection protocol can decrease the induced seismic risk and that thermo-poroelastic stress transfer results in a larger spatial seismic footprint and in higher-magnitude events than does direct pore pressure impact for the same amount of injected volume and hydraulic energy. Our results, validated against field observations, showcase the relevance of the novel approach to forecast seismic hazards induced by subsurface activities.

Magnitude and nucleation time of the 2017 Pohang Earthquake point to its predictable artificial triggering

A damaging Mw5.5 earthquake occurred at Pohang, South Korea, in 2017, after stimulating an enhanced geothermal system by borehole fluid injections. The earthquake was likely triggered by these operations. Current approaches for predicting maximum induced earthquake magnitude ([Formula: see text]) consider the volume of the injected fluid as the main controlling factor. However, these approaches are unsuccessful in predicting earthquakes, such as the Pohang one. Here we analyse the case histories of induced earthquakes, and find that [Formula: see text] scales with the logarithm of the elapsed time from the beginning of the fluid injection to the earthquake occurrence. This is also the case for the Pohang Earthquake. Its significant probability was predictable. These results validate an alternative to predicting [Formula: see text]. It is to monitor the exceedance probability of an assumed [Formula: see text] in real time by monitoring the seismogenic index, a quantity that characterizes the intensity of the fluid-induced seismicity per unit injected volume.

Ridgecrest aftershocks at Coso suppressed by thermal destressing

Geothermal and volcanic areas are prone to earthquake triggering^1,2. The Coso geothermal field in California lies just north of the surface ruptures driven by the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquake (moment magnitude M_w = 7.1), in an area where changes in coseismic stress should have triggered aftershocks^3,4. However, no aftershocks were observed there⁴. Here we show that 30 years of geothermal heat production at Coso depleted shear stresses within the geothermal reservoir. Thermal contraction of the reservoir initially induced substantial seismicity, as observed in the Coso geothermal reservoir, but subsequently depleted the stress available to drive the aftershocks during the Ridgecrest sequence. This destressing changed the faulting style of the reservoir and impeded aftershock triggering. Although unlikely to have been the case for the Ridgecrest earthquake, such a destressed zone could, in principle, impede the propagation of a large earthquake.

Widespread deep seismicity in the Delaware Basin, Texas, is mainly driven by shallow wastewater injection

Industrial activity away from plate boundaries can induce earthquakes and has evolved into a global issue. Much of the induced seismicity in the United States' midcontinent is attributed to a direct pressure increase from deep wastewater disposal. This mechanism is not applicable where deep basement faults are hydraulically isolated from shallow injection aquifers, leading to a debate about the mechanisms for induced seismicity. Here, we compile industrial, seismic, geodetic, and geological data within the Delaware Basin, western Texas, and calculate stress and pressure changes at seismogenic depth using a coupled poroelastic model. We show that the widespread deep seismicity is mainly driven by shallow wastewater injection through the transmission of poroelastic stresses assuming that unfractured shales are hydraulic barriers over decadal time scales. A zone of seismic quiescence to the north, where injection-induced stress changes would promote seismicity, suggests a regional tectonic control on the occurrence of induced earthquakes. Comparing the poroelastic responses from injection and extraction operations, we find that the basement stress is most sensitive to shallow reservoir hydrogeological parameters, particularly hydraulic diffusivity. These results demonstrate that intraplate seismicity can be caused by shallow human activities that poroelastically perturb stresses at hydraulically isolated seismogenic depths, with impacts on seismicity that are preconditioned by regional tectonics.

A Scientist's Warning to humanity on human population growth

One needs only to peruse the daily news to be aware that humanity is on a dangerous and challenging trajectory. This essay explores the prospect of adopting a science-based framework for confronting these potentially adverse prospects. It explores a perspective based on relevant ecological and behavioral science. The objective is to involve concerned citizens of the world in this enterprise. The overall objective is to maintain Planet Earth as a favorable home for the future of humanity. Nine ecological principles explain one major aspect of what is happening and provide critical guidelines for appropriate action. Nine social behaviors explore how we might integrate social science insights with those from ecology. Twenty predictions are proposed based on these ecological and social science principles plus existing trends. If these trends are not vigorously and courageously confronted, we will likely be on track for the demise of our civilization. As we examine these challenges, our job will be especially complicated because a major segment of humanity is not prepared to accept evidence based on science, and this generates much resistance to any efforts directed toward effective control of current and future challenges. In these complex circumstances, we must remain as cooperative and optimistic as possible so that we can promote the needed willpower and ingenuity. This essay has broad support as it is a contribution to the Scientists' Warning to Humanity Program of the Alliance of World Scientists (Ripple et al., 2017).

Fault valving and pore pressure evolution in simulations of earthquake sequences and aseismic slip

Fault-zone fluids control effective normal stress and fault strength. While most earthquake models assume a fixed pore fluid pressure distribution, geologists have documented fault valving behavior, that is, cyclic changes in pressure and unsteady fluid migration along faults. Here we quantify fault valving through 2-D antiplane shear simulations of earthquake sequences on a strike-slip fault with rate-and-state friction, upward Darcy flow along a permeable fault zone, and permeability evolution. Fluid overpressure develops during the interseismic period, when healing/sealing reduces fault permeability, and is released after earthquakes enhance permeability. Coupling between fluid flow, permeability and pressure evolution, and slip produces fluid-driven aseismic slip near the base of the seismogenic zone and earthquake swarms within the seismogenic zone, as ascending fluids pressurize and weaken the fault. This model might explain observations of late interseismic fault unlocking, slow slip and creep transients, swarm seismicity, and rapid pressure/stress transmission in induced seismicity sequences.

Ubiquitous Fractal Scaling and Filtering Behavior of Hydrologic Fluxes and Storages from A Mountain Headwater Catchment

We used the weighted wavelet method to perform spectral analysis of observed long-term precipitation, streamflow, actual evapotranspiration, and soil water storage at a sub-humid mountain catchment near Tucson, Arizona, USA. Fractal scaling in precipitation and the daily change in soil water storage occurred up to a period of 14 days and corresponded to the typical duration of relatively wet and dry intervals. In contrast, fractal scaling could be observed up to a period of 0.5 years in streamflow and actual evapotranspiration. By considering long-term observations of hydrologic fluxes and storages, we show that, in contrast to previous findings, the phase relationships between water balance components changed with component period and were not perfectly in or out of phase at all periods. Self-averaging behavior was apparent, but the temporal scales over which this behavior was applicable differed among the various water balance components. Conservative tracer analysis showed that this catchment acted as a fractal filter by transforming white noise in the precipitation input signal to a 1/f flicker in the streamflow output signal by means of both spatial and temporal subsurface advection and dispersion processes and soil wetting properties. This study provides an improved understanding of hydrological filtering behavior in mountain critical zones that are critical sources of water and ecosystem services throughout the world.

Operational and geological controls of coupled poroelastic stressing and pore-pressure accumulation along faults: Induced earthquakes in Pohang, South Korea

Coupled poroelastic stressing and pore-pressure accumulation along pre-existing faults in deep basement contribute to recent occurrence of seismic events at subsurface energy exploration sites. Our coupled fluid-flow and geomechanical model describes the physical processes inducing seismicity corresponding to the sequential stimulation operations in Pohang, South Korea. Simulation results show that prolonged accumulation of poroelastic energy and pore pressure along a fault can nucleate seismic events larger than M_w3 even after terminating well operations. In particular the possibility of large seismic events can be increased by multiple-well operations with alternate injection and extraction that can enhance the degree of pore-pressure diffusion and subsequent stress transfer through a rigid and low-permeability rock to the fault. This study demonstrates that the proper mechanistic model and optimal well operations need to be accounted for to mitigate unexpected seismic hazards in the presence of the site-specific uncertainty such as hidden/undetected faults and stress regime.

Pore-pressure diffusion, enhanced by poroelastic stresses, controls induced seismicity in Oklahoma

We develop a physics-based earthquake-forecasting model for evaluating seismic hazard due to fluid injection, considering both pore pressure and poroelastic stresses. Applying this model to complex settings like Oklahoma, we show that the regional induced earthquake timing and magnitude are controlled by the process of fluid diffusion in a poroelastic medium, and thus seismicity can be successfully forecasted by using a rate-and-state earthquake nucleation model. We find that pore-pressure diffusion controls the induced earthquakes in Oklahoma. However, its impact is enhanced by poroelastic effects. This finding has significant implications for induced earthquake-forecasting efforts by integrating the physics of fluid diffusion and earthquake nucleation.

Induced seismicity linked to geothermal resource exploitation, hydraulic fracturing, and wastewater disposal is evolving into a global issue because of the increasing energy demand. Moderate to large induced earthquakes, causing widespread hazards, are often related to fluid injection into deep permeable formations that are hydraulically connected to the underlying crystalline basement. Using injection data combined with a physics-based linear poroelastic model and rate-and-state friction law, we compute the changes in crustal stress and seismicity rate in Oklahoma. This model can be used to assess earthquake potential on specific fault segments. The regional magnitude–time distribution of the observed magnitude (M) 3+ earthquakes during 2008–2017 is reproducible and is the same for the 2 optimal, conjugate fault orientations suggested for Oklahoma. At the regional scale, the timing of predicted seismicity rate, as opposed to its pattern and amplitude, is insensitive to hydrogeological and nucleation parameters in Oklahoma. Poroelastic stress changes alone have a small effect on the seismic hazard. However, their addition to pore-pressure changes can increase the seismicity rate by 6-fold and 2-fold for central and western Oklahoma, respectively. The injection-rate reduction in 2016 mitigates the exceedance probability of M5.0 by 22% in western Oklahoma, while that of central Oklahoma remains unchanged. A hypothetical injection shut-in in April 2017 causes the earthquake probability to approach its background level by ∼2025. We conclude that stress perturbation on prestressed faults due to pore-pressure diffusion, enhanced by poroelastic effects, is the primary driver of the induced earthquakes in Oklahoma.

Fluid-induced aseismic fault slip outpaces pore-fluid migration

Earthquake swarms attributed to subsurface fluid injection are usually assumed to occur on faults destabilized by increased pore-fluid pressures. However, fluid injection could also activate aseismic slip, which might outpace pore-fluid migration and transmit earthquake-triggering stress changes beyond the fluid-pressurized region. We tested this theoretical prediction against data derived from fluid-injection experiments that activated and measured slow, aseismic slip on preexisting, shallow faults. We found that the pore pressure and slip history imply a fault whose strength is the product of a slip-weakening friction coefficient and the local effective normal stress. Using a coupled shear-rupture model, we derived constraints on the hydromechanical parameters of the actively deforming fault. The inferred aseismic rupture front propagates faster and to larger distances than the diffusion of pressurized pore fluid.